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Chapter III: The Miliband-Cable Coalition and the 2011 General Election
Upon the formation of the new Coalition Government, neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats wound find enjoyment in their new positions. For the Liberal Democrats, constitutional reforms found significant opposition both from Parliament and the electorate – while a Fixed-Term Parliament Act (which removed the ability to dissolve Parliament from the Royal Prerogative and set four years as the maximum lifespan of a Parliament, thereby moving the date of the next general election back from 2012 to 2011, as well as the month it would take place from November to May) was passed through the Commons and Lords and granted Royal Assent in December 2010, a House of Lords Reform Bill introduced in April 2010 (which would have turned the upper house into a semi-elected body) was rejected on its Second Reading in the Commons due to opposition from Conservative MPs (who opposed Lords reform on the grounds that it would threaten the supremacy of the Commons and dilute the Lords’ role as an independent body of experts) and left-wing Labour MPs (who opposed the specific Bill as it did not go far enough – either establishing a completely elected second chamber or abolishing the Lords outright). Meanwhile, the referendum on changing the voting system to STV was rejected by a firm margin by the electorate (albeit on a low turnout), with 54.3% of votes cast in favour of retaining FPTP, with the 'No' campaign receiving significant support from Conservative and Labour MPs and appealing to more voters based on its argument that STV would lead to instability amongst other points.
Meanwhile, Labour also struggled in the new Government as Britain’s economic situation struggled to improve in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis – while it was confirmed in January 2010 that the United Kingdom had officially left recession after a growth in Britain’s GDP of 0.1%, recession would return in the fourth quarter of 2010 as a result of severe weather hindering economic growth. Therefore, Miliband and his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls (an appointment made largely to appease the Brownites, who had remained disgruntled in the aftermath of what was seen by many as a Blairite coup), struggled to talk positively about Labour’s economic record in the face of such a dismal showing.
The problems faced by Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be reflected upon in opinion polls – shortly after Miliband’s ascension to the Premiership, both Labour and the Conservatives experienced a rise in support as (as the Prime Minister had correctly predicted) the Liberal Democrats saw their support plummet from an average of 17% prior to entering Government to a mere 10% by mid-2010. Such a collapse, combined with a natural honeymoon period which was typically enjoyed by new Prime Ministers, allowed Labour to overtake the Conservatives in opinion polls for the first time since the 2007 General Election, yet as the initial shine wore off Miliband this lead declined until, by 2010’s Conference Season (September to October), the Conservatives once again held a firm lead of between three and six points. Such a lead would only expand from there onwards – when it was announced in January 2011 that Britain was once again in recession, a fifteen-point gap emerged between the Conservatives and Labour (such a gap would decrease slightly after Britain’s successful role in the NATO intervention in Libya in March 2011, which overthrew Muammar Gaddafi). Added into the mixture was the rise of a new entity in British politics – UKIP. Many protest voters who had previously supported the Liberal Democrats largely out of disdain for the two major parties were unwilling, with the Liberal Democrats having ‘sold out’ (in their opinion), to endorse either the Conservatives or Labour. Therefore, many switched to UKIP, which enjoyed a gradual rise in opinion polls over 2010, which would only expand after the initial influx of protest voters, as the emergence of the Party as a credible force meant that many socially conservative working-class voters who had previously supported Labour, yet grown increasingly disenchanted with what was seen as the Party’s out-of-touch Europhilia and social liberalism, switched to UKIP. This sudden rise in support was treated with surprise and bewilderment by not only political commentators but also many within UKIP – the Party had, since the removal of its first leader, Alan Sked, been a Thatcherite to Libertarian grouping, yet had failed to win over many of the voters to whom such a platform would appeal, due to the Conservatives’ firm positioning on the right of the political spectrum under the leadership of Davis. So the fact that UKIP had begun to rise without winning over such a base was treated with interest by pollsters and the public alike.
And so, the stage for the 2011 General Election was set – an ailing Labour-Liberal Democrat Coalition, beset by a confident and ready for Government Conservative Party and an insurgent UKIP, would soon face the electorate in the polls.
During the campaigning for the General Election (which experienced a brief pause on April the 29th for the Royal Wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton), each party would outline its own vision for the future of the United Kingdom. In their election manifesto, the Conservatives emphasised an alternative solution to solving Britain’s economic woes through a return to Thatcherism, a commitment to a referendum on membership of the EU, the restoration of capital punishment for the most serious crimes and a plethora of Libertarian policies spearheaded by Davis, including a pledge to establish a British Bill of Rights (to replace the Human Rights Act) to enshrine freedom of speech and civil liberties, as well as a commitment to repeal sections of previous legislation which was deemed to have ‘corroded’ civil liberties further. Meanwhile, Labour found itself in a difficult position over the course of the campaign – had Britain not returned to recession in late-2010 then the Party would have had a far easier job of discussing its economic record (and indeed most economists have recognised that the contraction of the British economy was due to events outside the Government’s control), yet the fact that it had meant that no emphasis of a strong economy (as Labour had done in 2001, 2005 and 2007) came from Labour spokespeople. Instead, Miliband and other Labour officials adopted the line that, in a time of economic crisis, Britons should not ‘change horse midstream’ and that Labour, having been in Government throughout the crisis, had more information on how to tackle it. As for the Liberal Democrats, Cable and his team sought to justify their involvement in the Coalition Government and argued that the Liberal Democrats would ‘moderate’ either main Party if in a ‘Kingmaker’ scenario – yet the fact that opinion polls consistently suggested a Conservative Majority was in sight made this line largely void.
Eventually, the long-awaited date of May the 5th arrived and the people of the United Kingdom cast their ballots. At five to 10pm, many Britons would turn on their televisions, to be greeted by the familiar tune of Richard Wakeman’s ‘Arthur’, which signalled the start of the BBC’s election night coverage. At ten o’clock, David Dimbleby would unveil the exit poll and, shortly afterwards, each newspaper had enough information to write their headlines for the following day – ‘CONSERVATIVE VICTORY’, ‘WELCOME TO DOWNING STREET, PRIME MINISTER’, ‘MILIBAND AND LABOUR GIVEN THE BOOT’, ‘LIB DEMS SLAUGHTERED’ and ‘UKIP BREAKTHROUGH’ would all appear on May the 6th.
The result was Labour’s fourteen years in Government and the Conservatives’ stint in the political wilderness coming to an end – the Conservatives gained 95 seats overall to put the Party on 354 seats (excluding the Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir George Young), far above the 326 needed to secure a majority in the Commons. Furthermore, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) gained the seat of South Antrim from the DUP (after losing Parliamentary representation after MP for North Down Sylvia Hermon left the Party mid-way through the previous Parliament), meaning that, as a result of an electoral alliance between the Conservatives and UUP established in 2009 (known as the ‘Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force’), Davis could rely on 355 MPs to sit on the Government benches in the new Parliament. Meanwhile, Labour experienced significant losses over the night, losing several multiple seats (including several key figures in the Party such as Chancellor Balls, whose loss in Morley and Outwood became the ‘Portillo Moment’ of 2011) to the Conservatives yet gaining a few from the Liberal Democrats, putting the Party on 256 seats (a net loss of 66) by the time all results were declared. As for the Liberal Democrats, the Party lost over three-quarters of its MPs, reducing its total in the Commons to a mere 8 seats – a far cry from the 62 the Liberal Democrats had won only six years prior. The bulk of said losses came in Southern England, where many right-leaning Liberal Democrats had felt a sense of betrayal for the Party having entered into a coalition with Labour, and consequently cast their ballots out of protest for the Conservatives, allowing Davis’ Party to sweep up the Liberal Democrats’ former strongholds in the South-West. In London, the Liberal Democrats would lose all their seats (including Cable’s own seat of Twickenham) aside from Simon Hughes’ constituency of Bermondsey and Old Southwark, while, in Wales, the Liberal Democrats lost all their seats, marking the first time in which no Liberal MP was elected from the country which had previously been the Party’s stronghold. Ultimately, the Liberal Democrats would enter the new Parliament with a mere eight MPs, all of whom came from constituencies in Northern England or Scotland were a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition had been considered acceptable, while Cable duly resigned as leader of the Party, to be succeeded by Nick Clegg (who had narrowly held his seat of Sheffield Hallam) in an unopposed leadership election, finally allowing the Orange Book wing to take control of the Party.
As for the minor parties, the support for UKIP in opinion polls would be translated into reality in 2011 as the Party increased its support across areas where Labour had previously been dominant, securing 6.4% of the vote overall. Yet this increase in support did not translate well into seats, for the Party only won a single seat - Newcastle-under-Lyme (where UKIP held a strong local government position), won by David Nixon who would become UKIP's first MP. On election night, Farage (who stood and came second in the seat of Thurrock, which the Conservatives gained from Labour) hailed UKIP's success and vowed to play a key role in the EU Referendum which, given the Conservatives’ election victory, appeared only years (at most) away, yet also declared that the result of the election proved the need for voting reform given UKIP only held 0.15% of seats in the Commons from 6.4% of the vote.
Meanwhile, the Greens also saw an increase in support as some former Liberal Democrat protest voters switched to support them (leading to the Greens securing 1.7% of the vote overall), although the Party failed to improve on its 2007 performance seat-wise, with Party Leader Caroline Lucas remaining the only Green MP in the Commons. However, while UKIP and the Greens both saw increases in support, the BNP saw the exact reverse – its support wholly collapse as a result of infighting within the Party as well as outside factors. In Barking, Nick Griffin had become deeply unpopular since his election in 2007 – poor attendance in his constituency (only appearing in his seat three times between 2007 and 2011) combined with outrage over his inflammatory remarks in the Commons to deliver a sharp swing against the BNP - Griffin not only lost his seat but also saw the BNP's vote share in Barking fall down to a mere 0.9%, with Labour re-taking the constituency.
In Northern Ireland, there was a drop in support for both of the two main local parties, the DUP and Sinn Fein – Sinn Fein would lose Fermanagh and South Tyrone to the Independent Unionist ‘Unity’ candidate Rodney Connor, while the DUP, as well as losing South Antrim to the UUP, also lost Party Leader Peter Robinson’s constituency of Belfast East to the Alliance Party. Meanwhile, in Scotland, the Conservatives’ revival continued, as two Liberal Democrat seats (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and Argyll and Bute) moved into the Tory column, while the SNP (which won a majority in elections for the Scottish Parliament held on the same day as the General Election) picked up three Liberal Democrat seats in the Highlands, putting the Party on seven seats in total.
One stand-out story of the 2011 General Election was the shift in support amongst the working-class electorate. Aside from the UKIP breakthrough amongst 'Old Labour' voters, Davis and the Conservatives also experienced a surge in support amongst the blue collar electorate, for similar reasons for why Margaret Thatcher secured strong working-class support in her three election victories - many aspirational working-class voters saw the Thatcherite economic policies, of deregulation and reductions in taxation, as an opportunity to advance in society. This, combined with Davis' background (having grown up on a council estate in Tooting to achieve success, first as a member of the SAS, then as a senior executive in Tate & Lyle and finally in politics) resonating with many, led to the Conservatives being readily endorsed by the working-class, with voters in the C2 bracket voting 43% for Conservatives, 27% for Labour, 21% for UKIP, 6% for the Liberal Democrats and 3% for Minor Parties, while amongst DE voters the breakdown was 40% for Labour, 35% for Conservatives, 20% for UKIP, 4% for the Liberal Democrats and 1% for Minor Parties. This surge amongst the working-class would help Davis and the Conservatives win several key seats in Northern England, bringing the Party into Government.
With the results clear, Miliband conceded defeat and travelled to Buckingham Palace, tendering his resignation to Elizabeth II and recommending that she invite Davis to form a Government. Davis readily accepted the Queen’s offer when he arrived at the Palace shortly after Miliband and was subsequently driven to Number Ten Downing Street where, for the first time in fourteen years, a Conservative Prime Minister would walk through the door.
Meanwhile, Labour also struggled in the new Government as Britain’s economic situation struggled to improve in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis – while it was confirmed in January 2010 that the United Kingdom had officially left recession after a growth in Britain’s GDP of 0.1%, recession would return in the fourth quarter of 2010 as a result of severe weather hindering economic growth. Therefore, Miliband and his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls (an appointment made largely to appease the Brownites, who had remained disgruntled in the aftermath of what was seen by many as a Blairite coup), struggled to talk positively about Labour’s economic record in the face of such a dismal showing.
The problems faced by Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be reflected upon in opinion polls – shortly after Miliband’s ascension to the Premiership, both Labour and the Conservatives experienced a rise in support as (as the Prime Minister had correctly predicted) the Liberal Democrats saw their support plummet from an average of 17% prior to entering Government to a mere 10% by mid-2010. Such a collapse, combined with a natural honeymoon period which was typically enjoyed by new Prime Ministers, allowed Labour to overtake the Conservatives in opinion polls for the first time since the 2007 General Election, yet as the initial shine wore off Miliband this lead declined until, by 2010’s Conference Season (September to October), the Conservatives once again held a firm lead of between three and six points. Such a lead would only expand from there onwards – when it was announced in January 2011 that Britain was once again in recession, a fifteen-point gap emerged between the Conservatives and Labour (such a gap would decrease slightly after Britain’s successful role in the NATO intervention in Libya in March 2011, which overthrew Muammar Gaddafi). Added into the mixture was the rise of a new entity in British politics – UKIP. Many protest voters who had previously supported the Liberal Democrats largely out of disdain for the two major parties were unwilling, with the Liberal Democrats having ‘sold out’ (in their opinion), to endorse either the Conservatives or Labour. Therefore, many switched to UKIP, which enjoyed a gradual rise in opinion polls over 2010, which would only expand after the initial influx of protest voters, as the emergence of the Party as a credible force meant that many socially conservative working-class voters who had previously supported Labour, yet grown increasingly disenchanted with what was seen as the Party’s out-of-touch Europhilia and social liberalism, switched to UKIP. This sudden rise in support was treated with surprise and bewilderment by not only political commentators but also many within UKIP – the Party had, since the removal of its first leader, Alan Sked, been a Thatcherite to Libertarian grouping, yet had failed to win over many of the voters to whom such a platform would appeal, due to the Conservatives’ firm positioning on the right of the political spectrum under the leadership of Davis. So the fact that UKIP had begun to rise without winning over such a base was treated with interest by pollsters and the public alike.
And so, the stage for the 2011 General Election was set – an ailing Labour-Liberal Democrat Coalition, beset by a confident and ready for Government Conservative Party and an insurgent UKIP, would soon face the electorate in the polls.
***
During the campaigning for the General Election (which experienced a brief pause on April the 29th for the Royal Wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton), each party would outline its own vision for the future of the United Kingdom. In their election manifesto, the Conservatives emphasised an alternative solution to solving Britain’s economic woes through a return to Thatcherism, a commitment to a referendum on membership of the EU, the restoration of capital punishment for the most serious crimes and a plethora of Libertarian policies spearheaded by Davis, including a pledge to establish a British Bill of Rights (to replace the Human Rights Act) to enshrine freedom of speech and civil liberties, as well as a commitment to repeal sections of previous legislation which was deemed to have ‘corroded’ civil liberties further. Meanwhile, Labour found itself in a difficult position over the course of the campaign – had Britain not returned to recession in late-2010 then the Party would have had a far easier job of discussing its economic record (and indeed most economists have recognised that the contraction of the British economy was due to events outside the Government’s control), yet the fact that it had meant that no emphasis of a strong economy (as Labour had done in 2001, 2005 and 2007) came from Labour spokespeople. Instead, Miliband and other Labour officials adopted the line that, in a time of economic crisis, Britons should not ‘change horse midstream’ and that Labour, having been in Government throughout the crisis, had more information on how to tackle it. As for the Liberal Democrats, Cable and his team sought to justify their involvement in the Coalition Government and argued that the Liberal Democrats would ‘moderate’ either main Party if in a ‘Kingmaker’ scenario – yet the fact that opinion polls consistently suggested a Conservative Majority was in sight made this line largely void.
Eventually, the long-awaited date of May the 5th arrived and the people of the United Kingdom cast their ballots. At five to 10pm, many Britons would turn on their televisions, to be greeted by the familiar tune of Richard Wakeman’s ‘Arthur’, which signalled the start of the BBC’s election night coverage. At ten o’clock, David Dimbleby would unveil the exit poll and, shortly afterwards, each newspaper had enough information to write their headlines for the following day – ‘CONSERVATIVE VICTORY’, ‘WELCOME TO DOWNING STREET, PRIME MINISTER’, ‘MILIBAND AND LABOUR GIVEN THE BOOT’, ‘LIB DEMS SLAUGHTERED’ and ‘UKIP BREAKTHROUGH’ would all appear on May the 6th.
The result was Labour’s fourteen years in Government and the Conservatives’ stint in the political wilderness coming to an end – the Conservatives gained 95 seats overall to put the Party on 354 seats (excluding the Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir George Young), far above the 326 needed to secure a majority in the Commons. Furthermore, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) gained the seat of South Antrim from the DUP (after losing Parliamentary representation after MP for North Down Sylvia Hermon left the Party mid-way through the previous Parliament), meaning that, as a result of an electoral alliance between the Conservatives and UUP established in 2009 (known as the ‘Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force’), Davis could rely on 355 MPs to sit on the Government benches in the new Parliament. Meanwhile, Labour experienced significant losses over the night, losing several multiple seats (including several key figures in the Party such as Chancellor Balls, whose loss in Morley and Outwood became the ‘Portillo Moment’ of 2011) to the Conservatives yet gaining a few from the Liberal Democrats, putting the Party on 256 seats (a net loss of 66) by the time all results were declared. As for the Liberal Democrats, the Party lost over three-quarters of its MPs, reducing its total in the Commons to a mere 8 seats – a far cry from the 62 the Liberal Democrats had won only six years prior. The bulk of said losses came in Southern England, where many right-leaning Liberal Democrats had felt a sense of betrayal for the Party having entered into a coalition with Labour, and consequently cast their ballots out of protest for the Conservatives, allowing Davis’ Party to sweep up the Liberal Democrats’ former strongholds in the South-West. In London, the Liberal Democrats would lose all their seats (including Cable’s own seat of Twickenham) aside from Simon Hughes’ constituency of Bermondsey and Old Southwark, while, in Wales, the Liberal Democrats lost all their seats, marking the first time in which no Liberal MP was elected from the country which had previously been the Party’s stronghold. Ultimately, the Liberal Democrats would enter the new Parliament with a mere eight MPs, all of whom came from constituencies in Northern England or Scotland were a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition had been considered acceptable, while Cable duly resigned as leader of the Party, to be succeeded by Nick Clegg (who had narrowly held his seat of Sheffield Hallam) in an unopposed leadership election, finally allowing the Orange Book wing to take control of the Party.
As for the minor parties, the support for UKIP in opinion polls would be translated into reality in 2011 as the Party increased its support across areas where Labour had previously been dominant, securing 6.4% of the vote overall. Yet this increase in support did not translate well into seats, for the Party only won a single seat - Newcastle-under-Lyme (where UKIP held a strong local government position), won by David Nixon who would become UKIP's first MP. On election night, Farage (who stood and came second in the seat of Thurrock, which the Conservatives gained from Labour) hailed UKIP's success and vowed to play a key role in the EU Referendum which, given the Conservatives’ election victory, appeared only years (at most) away, yet also declared that the result of the election proved the need for voting reform given UKIP only held 0.15% of seats in the Commons from 6.4% of the vote.
Meanwhile, the Greens also saw an increase in support as some former Liberal Democrat protest voters switched to support them (leading to the Greens securing 1.7% of the vote overall), although the Party failed to improve on its 2007 performance seat-wise, with Party Leader Caroline Lucas remaining the only Green MP in the Commons. However, while UKIP and the Greens both saw increases in support, the BNP saw the exact reverse – its support wholly collapse as a result of infighting within the Party as well as outside factors. In Barking, Nick Griffin had become deeply unpopular since his election in 2007 – poor attendance in his constituency (only appearing in his seat three times between 2007 and 2011) combined with outrage over his inflammatory remarks in the Commons to deliver a sharp swing against the BNP - Griffin not only lost his seat but also saw the BNP's vote share in Barking fall down to a mere 0.9%, with Labour re-taking the constituency.
In Northern Ireland, there was a drop in support for both of the two main local parties, the DUP and Sinn Fein – Sinn Fein would lose Fermanagh and South Tyrone to the Independent Unionist ‘Unity’ candidate Rodney Connor, while the DUP, as well as losing South Antrim to the UUP, also lost Party Leader Peter Robinson’s constituency of Belfast East to the Alliance Party. Meanwhile, in Scotland, the Conservatives’ revival continued, as two Liberal Democrat seats (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and Argyll and Bute) moved into the Tory column, while the SNP (which won a majority in elections for the Scottish Parliament held on the same day as the General Election) picked up three Liberal Democrat seats in the Highlands, putting the Party on seven seats in total.
One stand-out story of the 2011 General Election was the shift in support amongst the working-class electorate. Aside from the UKIP breakthrough amongst 'Old Labour' voters, Davis and the Conservatives also experienced a surge in support amongst the blue collar electorate, for similar reasons for why Margaret Thatcher secured strong working-class support in her three election victories - many aspirational working-class voters saw the Thatcherite economic policies, of deregulation and reductions in taxation, as an opportunity to advance in society. This, combined with Davis' background (having grown up on a council estate in Tooting to achieve success, first as a member of the SAS, then as a senior executive in Tate & Lyle and finally in politics) resonating with many, led to the Conservatives being readily endorsed by the working-class, with voters in the C2 bracket voting 43% for Conservatives, 27% for Labour, 21% for UKIP, 6% for the Liberal Democrats and 3% for Minor Parties, while amongst DE voters the breakdown was 40% for Labour, 35% for Conservatives, 20% for UKIP, 4% for the Liberal Democrats and 1% for Minor Parties. This surge amongst the working-class would help Davis and the Conservatives win several key seats in Northern England, bringing the Party into Government.
***
With the results clear, Miliband conceded defeat and travelled to Buckingham Palace, tendering his resignation to Elizabeth II and recommending that she invite Davis to form a Government. Davis readily accepted the Queen’s offer when he arrived at the Palace shortly after Miliband and was subsequently driven to Number Ten Downing Street where, for the first time in fourteen years, a Conservative Prime Minister would walk through the door.
- Mustard
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