In May 1923, British Prime Minister Andrew Bonar Law found himself having to resign from office, as a result of a diagnosis of terminal cancer which would lead to his death in October. This left King George V with the task of appointing his successor, which most people anticipated would be Lord Curzon, one of the most distinguished politicians in the country, having served as Viceroy of India between 1899 and 1905 and Foreign Secretary in David Lloyd George’s Grand Coalition after the First World War. However, instead Bonar Law recommended to George V that his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Stanley Baldwin, be invited to form a Government. A relatively new figure on the political stage, Baldwin had entered prominence by becoming one of the leading opponents of the Lloyd George Government at the Carlton Club meeting, which resulted in the Conservatives withdrawing from the Grand Coalition, triggering the 1922 general election which had brought the Conservatives to power only months prior.
Consequently, now Prime Minister, Baldwin, with a firm majority in the Commons, could wait almost five years before calling a new general election. Yet, for Baldwin, there were complications to his new position – while he was a firm supporter of Imperial Preference and wished to introduce tariffs on goods from outside the Empire, Bonar Law had, prior to the general election, pledged not to introduce tariffs over the course of the next Parliament. Therefore, while he had a mandate to govern, Baldwin did not have a mandate to implement the policies he wished to enact. So, Baldwin resolved to request a dissolution of Parliament from the King, who accepted, thereby triggering a general election for December 1923 – yet such a move drastically backfired for the Prime Minister, as opposition to tariffs led to support for the opposition parties – Labour, led by Ramsay MacDonald, and the Liberals, led by former Prime Minister H.H. Asquith – drastically increasing. Therefore, far from receiving a mandate to continue to govern, Baldwin instead lost his majority, as the Conservatives fell to 258 seats while Labour won 191 and the Liberals 158. A Parliament which was almost split three ways between the three major parties had resulted and it was unlikely that Baldwin could continue in such a position, as Asquith (believing that Labour would fail in Government and the Liberals would recover their lost position as the main opponent of the Conservatives) had agreed to support a Labour Government through confidence and supply. Nonetheless, Baldwin remained as Prime Minister until January 1924, when he lost a crucial vote in the Commons, thereby leading to George V inviting Ramsay MacDonald to form a new administration.
MacDonald entered Number Ten Downing Street as the head of the first ever Labour Government, yet his position was a precarious one – with only 191 MPs in the Commons he had to rely entirely on the benevolence of the Liberals. As a result of this, MacDonald devoted most of his time to foreign affairs – during his Premiership, Britain, along with the other members of the Entente, signed the Dawes Plan, which dealt with the payment of Germany’s reparations (set out under the Treaty of Versailles) and allowed the Weimar Government to pay the reparations over a staggered period of time, rather than by the deadline set out in the Treaty of Versailles. However, another foreign policy initiative of MacDonald’s, the recognition of the Russian Republic, attracted broad criticism from both the Conservatives and the Liberals, not least because Britain continued to provide refuge for the Romanov Royal Family-in-exile – this, combined with the Campbell Case, would prove to be the death knell for MacDonald’s Government, as the Liberals supported the Conservatives on a motion of no confidence. Lacking the support of the Commons, MacDonald dissolved Parliament, triggering the 1924 general election.
The subsequent election would prove to be a triumph for Baldwin and the Conservatives, who returned to power by a landslide with 376 seats to the Liberals’ 123 and Labour’s 105, while a fourth group, the Constitutionalists (a lose alliance, including former Liberal Cabinet Minister Winston Churchill, with no formal leader) won 7 seats and the remaining four were held by minor parties. Following the election, MacDonald tendered his resignation to the King and Baldwin was duly invited to form his second administration, once again becoming Prime Minister, while, in Opposition, Asquith found himself Leader of the Opposition with the Liberals once again as one of the two main parties. Yet the 1924 general election was by no means a triumph for the Liberals, as many voters who had backed the Liberals in 1923 switched to the Conservatives in 1924 primarily as a result of events such as the Zinoviev letter, which led to the Liberals falling backwards from their previous performance (Asquith himself only held his seat of Paisley by two votes after several recounts) – only the Conservatives’ continued opposition to free trade prevented the Liberals from losing further seats [1].
Only time would tell as to whether or not this was a return to the Conservative-Liberal party system, or whether or not the recent electoral volatility would continue.
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[1] This is the first Point of Divergence relating to British politics. In this timeline, Baldwin and the Conservatives continue to support Imperial Preference after the 1923 general election, resulting in less Liberal voters defecting to the Conservatives in 1924. Although the Conservatives still win the general election in this timeline (with a slightly smaller majority than our timeline), the increased support for the Liberals allows them to overtake Labour, who perform worse in 1924 in this timeline.