Most Effective Target for Atomic Attack on Nazi Germany

[kernals12]

Yes a new bomber will draw the Luftwaffe’s attention. It means one more aircraft you need to figure out how to shoot down.

By August 1944, the Luftwaffe was facing extreme fuel shortages, would they waste it on a plane that they would think is doing reconaissance?

 

[Michel Van]

in 1944 the Luftwaffe was merely shadow of it former self
a US bomber with atomic bomb supported by fleet of P-51 fighter will reach it target site

Nuremberg and Munich would be a ideological target because importance of Nazi cult
on Factories the Nazis had decentralized there production like Panther tanks build in Nuremberg, Hanover, Berlin, Kassel

but this is about most effective target that hit the nazi real hard, so my list of targets

-Frankfurt am Main railway junctions was during war most hit US bomber target, because it importance in transport ammo, weapons and troops to frontline

-Mittelwerk, the infamous SS underground V1 V2 production site save for conventional bombs but nor a nuke with ground impact.

-Ammunition propellant production there were several large factories in Germany the biggest were Werk TANNE who made TNT (near by Mittelwerk) also Sprengstofffabrik FASAN and Pulverfabrik Rottweil
you hit those with airburst Nuke, Wehrmacht suddly runs out of ammo...

 

[kernals12]

If we decide we're going to use the nuke in a tactical setting, how about we blow a hole in the Siegfried Line thereby allowing the allies to not have to go through with the risky Operation Market Garden?

 

[Shevek23]

....

Yeah....the Allies were not interested in genocide.

Systematic genocide, no. Hammering away ruthlessly at Axis powers without regard to casualties until they surrender...it would be most interesting to know if the attitudes so demonstrated OTL against Japan would in fact have prevailed against a land of white people who look like the dominant sector of the USA and Britain.

Meanwhile and much much more to the point in such a TL...are we in ASB here? Checking, no, we are in After 1900. Plausibility constraints apply. Discussion of delivery methods is interesting but if all that has been accomplished with good fortune in the MP is to advance the time scale "a year," then the supply of available A-bombs is strictly limited!

The USA was not yet able to churn them out like so much cotton candy. The biggest constraint is the supply of suitably weapons grade fissionable materials. The options are to use plutonium, which does not occur in significant amounts in natural ores, and must be transmuted into being from more common fissionable isotopes in a nuclear reactor then chemically isolated. Or, to use Uranium-235, which does occur in nature, but in really tiny concentrations versus the commoner and less easily fissioned isotope U-238. I suppose a suitable fission pile might also produce enhanced numbers of -235 nuclei via transmutation but no one ever talks about that, either it doesn't happen or it is not cost-effective versus other options. What was done OTL was to separate it by various ways and means that use the slight relative mass difference between the isotopes which otherwise behave identically chemically.

Both processes are quite slow, especially when you are setting them up for the first time and have to learn a certain amount by trial and error. MP had all the money thrown at it the project runners wanted, and the USA had resources to spare despite heavy war mobilization, so IIRC 3 methods of U-235 concentration were explored and each put into action on a serious production scale, while the fourth route of creating and stockpiling suitable plutonium isotope mixes via generating them by transmutation in a uranium-based fission pile was also adopted. The outcome was that both methods yielded a slow trickle of accumulation. We have some nuclear experts on site, my personal Bat-Signal goes out to @asnys, author of fine materials based on knowledge of nuclear processes and the history of their development.

Since Uncle Sugar funded MP lavishly and the world's greatest scientists and engineers were heavily recruited for it, I find it implausible to argue they could have proceeded much faster. With hindsight we know of mistakes made and wrong paths pursued but it is not clear, if we imagine the directors blessed with uncanny intuition and hunches, whether shutting down the less productive options and throwing all saved resources at the in-retrospect most cost-effective options would have accelerated getting results or not. Two parallel things are going on--one, the mindless drip drip drip of accumulating stocks of weapons grade fissionables at a snail's pace. Building more facilities presumably would accelerate that but experts on the history of the project might point out constraints on that. Let's presume that in fact doubling the existing plants would indeed double the pace, and that the cost of doing so is something like the square of the ratio of outcomes, and to offset that drawback that managers have intuition or guesses or sheer chance happenstance decisions are made that raise the ratio of the most effective methods so overall we don't have to double total plant acreage and associated costs to get double production, because they have stumbled into the best methods available. It would not be realistic for 100 percent to go into the best; they are finding their way blindly and have to try everything, but it might be fair if the relative share of the best methods is doubled versus OTL. Do the research to finger which possible method in the wartime '40s was in fact the best, figure the earliest date it gets started and push that back a little, raise the level of investment in it until it is up to twice OTL and after that calculate on the nonlinear rising costs of increasing all forms of production until the OTL rates are surpassed by one year as of springtime 1944. This means that, provided you can show that the additional bulk budget for all MP stuff can be covered and sustained, the mass of materials to produce suitable bomb cores is available by then and not a year later.

That's one hurdle--the other is, the design teams worked right up into the spring of '45 and indeed kept puttering about trying to improve things from a far less than optimal state--well, presumably to the present day! They too would need uncanny intuition and luck in experimentation to arrive at workable bomb designs a year before they did OTL.

Nuclear fission is a messy process and tends to gross inefficiency in plain fission bombs, because one needs two halves of a critical mass/density combination kept separate enough not to trigger a fizzle yield dud blast, then somehow the criticality is raised enough for a major amount of fission to take place, but unfortunately when only a fraction of the mass that could theoretically be split has actually done so, the heat released by the partial fission is enough to blow the rest of the perfectly useful core materials to the four winds. That is, fission bomb making starts out very inefficient! To practically make one bomb, you need large multiples of the mass that will actually undergo fission to make that fraction do its job. It might be otherwise with more advanced designs, but we are conceding enough to match OTL performance a year earlier. So, the amount of fissile materials needed is far greater than that that will actually be fissioning.

This is why the early bombs were so damned big.

I see conflicting reports on the number of bombs the USA could have had by the end of 1945 OTL had they persisted; OTL it was just a handful of completed articles. Others say that the plans for Operation Olympic, the invasion of the Japanese Home Islands, relied on a couple dozen being available. I think the major factor explaining this discrepancy is gross confusion in the minds of the actual planners, overoptimism about what would in fact be available, mitigated just a little by the assumption that if use of a couple bombs did not drive Japan into surrender than the USA would double down on production facilities and increase their performance considerably versus OTL--but I think it would be impossible to have as many as some say MacArthur's invasion plans called for to use during it. There could also be confusion about what those plans actually were.

Overall, I think if the MP status on April 1, 1944 were exactly that of OTL April 1, 1945, this means that subsequent production will be maybe twice as fast as OTL, maximum. I want to say ten bombs built by New Year's Eve 1944. One at least went for a vital test shot.

With 9 bombs in hand, the most gung-ho version of FDR would not be able to do as some have advised and simply pulverize the Reich into glowing dust overnight, not if Skippy the ASB were to personally appear with two dozen Bomb delivery capability versions of the B-29 complete with manuals and blueprints and hand them in person to Leslie Groves.

The A-bomb, in the timeframe '44-45, cannot be used to simply flatten Germany; targets must be chosen either to inflict maximum damage, logistical being the prime target; or for terror value in demoralizing the Germans.

 

[Histor32]

Nuremburg IOTL was pulverized by air raids on January 2, 1945. 90% of the city was destroyed. And dropping it on a battlefield would be inefficient and endanger the lives of allied troops who aren't trained in atomic warfare.

this would be aug 44.. with a weapon never used in combat... I'm just saying .. I would prefer not to see Nuremburg a radioactive rubble pit is all.

I could see dropping it on Peenemünde or other strategic location

 

[Dorknought]

I'd go for a demonstration...
---

Lord Flashheart strides into the room.

"Oi chums, check out our target for tonight!"
His riding crop slaps down on a point 33 km north of Salzburg, the collected officers crane their necks forward to see the tiny point on the map.

"Fucking Austria tonight, tomorrow Germany!"

Lord Flashheart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UlaAHdcRMg

 

[Livius wannabe]

There were certainly individuals in the Allies who were.

But not against Germans, AFAIK.
On the other hand, the Japanese were considered subhuman in some quarters, see

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Regarding Lancaster as a Nuke bomber

Strip it of turrets - give the reduced crew oxygen and heated suits to allow them to operate at Altitude - streamline the nose - drop the thing and bugger off into a power dive - close eyes and think of your happy palce - medals all round

As for target - largest POL refinary within range

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Systematic genocide, no. Hammering away ruthlessly at Axis powers without regard to casualties until they surrender...it would be most interesting to know if the attitudes so demonstrated OTL against Japan would in fact have prevailed against a land of white people who look like the dominant sector of the USA and Britain.

Then why did they not use chemical weapons later in the war and not carpet bomb civilians specifically?

 

[kernals12]

The facility is a lot bigger than I thought. 1 nuke wouldn't completely destroy it. Although the fallout might render it unusable temporarily.

 

[kernals12]

I'd go for a demonstration...
---

Lord Flashheart strides into the room.

"Oi chums, check out our target for tonight!"
His riding crop slaps down on a point 33 km north of Salzburg, the collected officers crane their necks forward to see the tiny point on the map.

"Fucking Austria tonight, tomorrow Germany!"

Lord Flashheart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UlaAHdcRMg

Depressingly, residents of that town call themselves Fuckingers, not the more hilarious alternative.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Use in August 1944...

In early August the Allied armies were just starting to advance out of Normandy. Paris was not even captured until mid month & no one thought they would reach the German border in another month. Odds are a transportation center near the Rhine would be high on the target list.

When more devices became available in September or October a tactical target would make more sense.

 

[kernals12]

Use in August 1944...

In early August the Allied armies were just starting to advance out of Normandy. Paris was not even captured until mid month & no one thought they would reach the German border in another month. Odds are a transportation center near the Rhine would be high on the target list.

When more devices became available in September or October a tactical target would make more sense.

Without fuel or lubricants, there can be no transportation.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

There was still fuel enough to scrape by in August 44. The German railways ran on coal & there was plenty of it in August. It was the light faction of the petrol that were the desperate shortages - aviation fuel. The a bit more of the automotive grades, then diesel. Coal was one they had enough of to get by.

 

[kernals12]

There was still fuel enough to scrape by in August 44. The German railways ran on coal & there was plenty of it in August. It was the light faction of the petrol that were the desperate shortages - aviation fuel. The a bit more of the automotive grades, then diesel. Coal was one they had enough of to get by.

So what would've been a transportation hub to target?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

So what would've been a transportation hub to target?

Cologne would have been a major target.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Cologne_in_World_War_II

April 1944 USAAF 303rd Bomb Group Failed deployment of GB-1 Glide Bomb[nb 4]

18/19 July 1944 RAF 6 Mosquitoes on a diversionary raid, part of a night when the RAF made four substantial attacks and a number of small raids like that on Cologne. They attacked the synthetic oil plants at Wesseling and Scholven/Buer, railway junctions at Aulnoye and Revigny and a flying-bomb launching site at Acque.[10]

14 October 1944 VIII Bomber Command Mission 677: As part of a round-the-clock bombing operation, PFF attacks were made on Cologne marshaling yards at Gereon, Gremberg, and Eifeltor; as well as Euskirchen 35 km outside Cologne.[18]

1944-10-15 The 486 BG bombed Cologne.[19]

17 October 1944 8th AF[nb 5] Mission 681: 1,338 bombers and 811 fighters are dispatched on PFF attacks in the Cologne, Germany area; 465 B-17s are dispatched to hit marshalling yards at Cologne/Eifeltor (216) and Cologne/Gremberg (34); the targets of opportunity were Cologne/Kalk marshalling yard (151), 453 B-17s are dispatched to hit marshalling yards at Cologne/Gereon (295) and Cologne/Kalk (142)

 

[edgeworthy]

I'd go for a demonstration...
---

Lord Flashheart strides into the room.

"Oi chums, check out our target for tonight!"
His riding crop slaps down on a point 33 km north of Salzburg, the collected officers crane their necks forward to see the tiny point on the map.

"Fucking Austria tonight, tomorrow Germany!"

Lord Flashheart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UlaAHdcRMg

"Your target for tonight is those German Wankers!"

Wank
Berg Wank is a mountain in the Bavarian Alps near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, about 100 kilometres from Munich. Because this is prime skiing country, there are a whole host of businesses that use Wank as part of their name. For example the Wankhaus is at the top of Wank Mountain, and can be reached by the Wankbahn, for which you can buy an annual Wankpass. After the cable car ride, you can spend the night in the town of Wank, perhaps sitting for a time on a bench (Wankerbank), admiring the view.

On a more serious note given the Wallied paranoia about the "Alpine Redoubt" dropping it on Berchtesgaden* might make sense to some planners. Also a good spot for a symbolic demonstration use.
(*It was actually bombed by the RAF, but not until April 1945)

 

[kernals12]

"Your target for tonight is those German Wankers!"

On a more serious note given the Wallied paranoia about the "Alpine Redoubt" dropping it on Berchtesgaden* might make sense to some planners. Also a good spot for a symbolic demonstration use.
(*It was actually bombed by the RAF, but not until April 1945)

And remember, if you get lost, Kissing leads to F*cking

Kissing[/B] is a municipality in the Aichach-Friedberg district, in Bavaria, Germany. It is located just 10 km south of Augsburg and has about 11,200 inhabitants (2007).

Kissing was first mentioned in a document in 1050 AD as Chissingin, it was a minor regional centre of rule and jurisdiction called a Hofmark(German article). In even earlier times, around 500, there was a thing hill nearby, which was later swept away by the floods of the river Lech.

The surname Kissinger (as in Henry Kissinger) means inhabitant of Kissing or Kissingen.

 

[kernals12]

"Your target for tonight is those German Wankers!"

On a more serious note given the Wallied paranoia about the "Alpine Redoubt" dropping it on Berchtesgaden* might make sense to some planners. Also a good spot for a symbolic demonstration use.
(*It was actually bombed by the RAF, but not until April 1945)

So Wank is tall and has white stuff on it.

 

[kernals12]

Nuking Leuna would presumably destroy most of the smoke screens and AA guns and kill their operators. This would make it easy for a conventional raid to sweep in and destroy what's left of the facility after the first attack.