WI Britain pulls a 'Copenhagen' and pre-emptively attacks the Imperial German Navy?

[BlondieBC]

Apparently in the 1900s the notion of a pre-emptive strike against German ships moored in Kiel and Wilhelmshaven was mooted on more than one occasion by elements in the British Admiralty.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_German_Navy#1897_to_1906_Tirpitz_and_the_Navy_Bills

What if the madmen actually did it and had a shot at blowing up the entire German Fleet? Would they succeed, or could the Germans retreat and regroup for some sort of counter-engagement? My bets are that an attack in 1904 would be a smashing British victory, while 1908 would be a considerably-less-than-smashing one that sees high British casualties but nonetheless leaves the Germans with a bloody nose. Would this seriously rile the Germans up, and full-scale war? If so, who would be fighting it?

Start with the easy part. It will be a full scale war. I guess events depend a lot of which year and luck, but lets do some background. The Germans developed their plans used in WW1 as a test of concept to knock out France while Russia was recovering from the Japanese war. The UK is Japan's ally. Diplomatically, one has to consider if the three emperor league has been effectively restored. What France does is fascinating too. My guess is the USA responds negatively to the attack, so I would expect the UK to be very isolated in this war and Germany to have unlimited access to world goods (the 75% not covered by the British Empire).

I would also point out that this attack will not be a surprise in the strategic sense since the UK press openly talked about Copenhagening the German Fleet. And they put the bulk of the Fleet in exercises in the Baltic just in case the Germans are exceptionally dense. The war plans changed yearly. You might want to look up plans A to D and W1, W2, W3.

These plans called for land operations, and generally called for violating other nations neutrality. Dutch island, Jutland, and Danish Islands were in various plans. So assuming it looks like one of the plans, again, it looks like a general war. It would make a great ATL for a good writer who loves research.

So could it succeed. Yes, it could be a grand victory on day 1. Or it could be a British tactical defeat. The UK just can't lose enough ships on one day to lose a war against Germany just like Germany can't lose enough divisions in any given single month to lose to the British Army. Soon after the initial naval battle, the Germans will have driven the British Amphibious forces back into the sea or more likely, capture them. The near coast will be clear of the British navy surface ships. And I don't see a lot of winning scenarios for the UK besides the UK can take colonies. If France joins the UK, Germany and A-H will take Paris while the Russians sell supplies to the Germans. If the French are neutral or better to the Germans (my guess), we will see the anti-merchant warfare doctrine proposed by French admirals. This time period is pre-radio, which makes it much, much harder to hunt down German ships. And 75% of the world ports will be cheering the Germans on.

Also, really too earlier for subs, despite my well know love of U-boat wanks.

 

[BlondieBC]

Regardless of success or failure I cannot see this playing out well with the other major powers. And here is a big butterfly how would the US react to this? Could it cause a naval build up along with increased coastal defenses?

Would there be any increased tensions with the British, I think so. This is not a time that the US favors preemptive strikes so UK would be seen as an aggressive nation.

The more I think on it the more likely Teddy pushes for an increased US naval buildup. More so with the earlier attack since the German navy is smaller at that point. Also the Russian navy has not been sunk yet, however if the Russo Japan war happens as OTL with the same naval results it will make for interesting times.

How would it not lead to a large expansion of the US Navy and a massive fortification of USA ports? I have trouble thinking of any scenario where the US Navy budget does not soar in size.

 

[BlondieBC]

Upon further consideration, there would likely be US support for a German demand for justice, in whatever form such justice might take, along the lines of paying reparations for the damage done & lives lost, as well as paying to replace all ships damaged/destroyed in the attack, with new construction, as well as international sanctions until such time as an international naval treaty is agreed to by all comers, probably featuring the UK being forced to acknowledgment Germany getting a right to 60%-80% of battleship tonnage with the UK, and the USA's right to 100%, of course. So much for the 2:1 thoughts.

Isn't it more likely we try to be the arbitrators? Much like the Russo Japanese war.

 

[BlondieBC]

Not sure about the early years of the 20th Century, but by 1914 the High Seas Fleet was routinely exercising far from German ports - off Norway that year. That's probably where to hit them.

Off the top of my head, most exercises were off Norway practice attacking German ports. And in some years, in the Baltic Sea practicing attacking German ports.

 

[BigSteve]

Why does everyone seem to think it will go to war?
This is before the entente, Britains only allies are Portugal and Japan, while Germany can rely on who, Austria-Hungary?
Once the HSF is sunk, even if there is international condemnation, what can practically be done about it? Is Russia suddenly going to side with Germany having been thouroughly beaten by Japan amd suffer complete naval embargo? Are the French? Does the US even care?
I don't think so. I think Germany will have their colonies taken if the try to start a war, then get given a large compensation and a note saying 'you don't need a fleet if you have no colonies to protect, enjoy merchant marine'.
Hell even if Germany gets plausible allies (imo any combination of Russia, AH, Italy and Ottomans), there's still the matter of prosecuting a war against the unassailable British isles, and I think everyone knows how unprepared TTLs central powers would be to fight in the middle east without the ability to resupply navally.

 

[corditeman]

Just discovered this TL...

... Fisher wanted to 'Copenhagen' the HSF in the 1890s and was refused due to poor form and minefields. There were literally MILLIONS of German mines in the Heligoland Bight and off the Baltic Coast. Many of them are still there.

To take the Grand Fleet into the Heligoland Bight invites mines, but also torpedo attack by destroyers, cruisers, Schnellboote and eventually the Unterseeboote. Churchill could be an ass, but not even Fisher was nuts enough to actually attack Wilhelmshafen and lose the Grand Fleet. That is why both sides tried to draw the other out of harbour to somewhere like the Dogger Bank or Jutland. Only shallow-draught boats like the Coastal Motor Boats (CMB) could cross the minefields unmolested. I never used Heligoland in my book for more than CMB and folboat raids into the Friesland area, for the Jade was well mined and the few shipping channels under the guns of the German coastal fortifications.

So I'm sorry, CommanderVonBruning, but the OP is a non-starter on many levels. You might want to consider a Wattenzee Kanal through the tidal mudbanks from Emden to Cuxhaven, though - I am amazed that this was never dredged for commerce and naval purposes.

I enjoyed the book and the film of 'The Riddle of The Sands', though - the book was/is a favourite of my grandfather, my father and myself. Jurgen Andersen was superb as the Commander - easily the equal of Simon MacCorkindale in his role as Arthur Davies. I salute you, sir.

 

[HunterX]

Britain could try this, but the chances of success would be extremely low. They'd lose some ships, embarrass themselves and tarnish their reputation on a worldwide stage, and be in a war they aren't prepared for.

 

[marathag]

There were literally MILLIONS of German mines in the Heligoland Bight and off the Baltic Coast. Many of them are still there.

Before WWI?
I do not believe the area beyond the Military harbors were mined at all before the War.

Any period maps showing the extent of fields?

 

[Alanith]

Why does everyone seem to think it will go to war?
This is before the entente, Britains only allies are Portugal and Japan, while Germany can rely on who, Austria-Hungary?
Once the HSF is sunk, even if there is international condemnation, what can practically be done about it? Is Russia suddenly going to side with Germany having been thouroughly beaten by Japan amd suffer complete naval embargo? Are the French? Does the US even care?
I don't think so. I think Germany will have their colonies taken if the try to start a war, then get given a large compensation and a note saying 'you don't need a fleet if you have no colonies to protect, enjoy merchant marine'.
Hell even if Germany gets plausible allies (imo any combination of Russia, AH, Italy and Ottomans), there's still the matter of prosecuting a war against the unassailable British isles, and I think everyone knows how unprepared TTLs central powers would be to fight in the middle east without the ability to resupply navally.

So what, Germany should just laugh the murder of its sailors and sinking of its ships off and say "Wow Britain, that was a lovely joke!"

 

[corditeman]

Marathag...

...I did find a map of the Heligoland Bight with extensive minefields on it, roughly onshore of a line between Norderney and Sylt. The Kaiser was not good about freedom of navigation. I cannot find that map online at the moment, but will try to do so.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

There's a 0.0001% chance of that happening in the Edwardian era

Having a scrap with the Germans would be met with enthusiasm, It's a tactic they would all know from Nelson. Jingoism still ruled

... are you daft man? British media has been stoking German invasion fears (With GERMANY as the boogyman surprise agressior breaking international norms to spring a trap on the island) for years now, and in general the vast majority of people, while they may be happy to fight a war that they feel is just and won't impact them too directly, don't want to START one without due cause. Especially not during the domestically tumultious period of the early 1900's with the (major) domestic reforms the Liberals were trying to push through, questions about the structure and legitimate level of direct control in the Empire as expressed in the Dominion issues with South Africa, the situation in Ireland, ect. Nelson was only able to pull Coppenhagan off because you had a firmly established union of sentiment domestically already, a recognition by all parties that France and G.B were more or less permenantly at war (Thus, a broader state of war for England already existed, the population was more used to sacrifices, the global economy had already gone into a war footing and so you woulden't see much more of an immediate crunch... and the attack was a response to French efforts to further squeeze the normal rules of commerce/freedom of the seas via the Continental System anyways. In that context, the NORM becomes hostility rather than peace among nations), and the mid-19th century reforms haden't happened yet meaning governments were more isolated from the public at large and the public had fewer expectations of the State... nor the mechanisms for the opposition to as effectively mobalize popular sentiment against the ruling party to take power peacefully as opposed to radically/violently. There's no way this isen't WILDLY controversial domestically and internationally, even with Britain's allies.

After all, not too long ago Russia and France could count themselves as Britain's big "target"/rivals. Who's to say that by allowing this new international norm they won't be the one getting the out-of-the-blue broadside when London decides they're too much of a threat?

 

[Anderman]

Just discovered this TL...

... Fisher wanted to 'Copenhagen' the HSF in the 1890s and was refused due to poor form and minefields. There were literally MILLIONS of German mines in the Heligoland Bight and off the Baltic Coast. Many of them are still there.

Aren´t the 1890s a little early ? The HSF was minuscule a this time the first naval law passed in 1898 and Fisher became Rear Admiral only in 1890.

 

[corditeman]

You may be right, Anderman...

...Just back from a 12 and a half hour day at Tesco, but will check my sources. Could be as late as 1910, but not sure. The minefields were certainly extensive enough to make a 'Copenhagen' impossible when Fisher had clout enough to propose it.

 

[BigSteve]

So what, Germany should just laugh the murder of its sailors and sinking of its ships off and say "Wow Britain, that was a lovely joke!"

You're not hearing me. I said what can they do?

This isn't exactly the era of aerial warfare. Without a navy if Germany declares war on Britain they open themselves up to an attack anywhere at any time. If they want to remain an empire Germany will just have to accept the loss of their fleet. And not only can Britain attack with impunity, they have the ability to bloxkade German ports and force them to go through expensive middlemen for their goods, something which becomes more difficult when considering that France will probably deny Germany access to their markets and Britain holds both chokepoints of the Mediterranean.

 

[weasel_airlift]

You're not hearing me. I said what can they do?

This isn't exactly the era of aerial warfare. Without a navy if Germany declares war on Britain they open themselves up to an attack anywhere at any time. If they want to remain an empire Germany will just have to accept the loss of their fleet. And not only can Britain attack with impunity, they have the ability to bloxkade German ports and force them to go through expensive middlemen for their goods, something which becomes more difficult when considering that France will probably deny Germany access to their markets and Britain holds both chokepoints of the Mediterranean.

That's actually a very fair point. However, I would very much expect that the German High Command would instantly begin developing some plan to return the favor so to speak, even if it takes a while.

 

[Shadow Master]

Isn't it more likely we try to be the arbitrators? Much like the Russo Japanese war.

That was my though, as well, but I expressed it badly. I would see the USA applying pressure to the UK to pay reparations, and accept naval treaties that would forever eliminate the thought of the preemptive strike being viable in the future. Thing is, if the UK did do something like this, then I don't see them being 'reasonable' anytime soon.

One of the other possibilities not yet covered is, are the French on board with this, or just along for the ride? What about a joint strike by the RN and the MN?

 

[GauchoBadger]

In case somehow Britain keeps Heligoland after 1890 and WWI still happens, can the RN use the island as a point from which to neutralize the North Sea Kriegsmarine?

 

[Shadow Master]

Why does everyone seem to think it will go to war?
This is before the entente, Britains only allies are Portugal and Japan, while Germany can rely on who, Austria-Hungary?
Once the HSF is sunk, even if there is international condemnation, what can practically be done about it? Is Russia suddenly going to side with Germany having been thouroughly beaten by Japan amd suffer complete naval embargo? Are the French? Does the US even care?
I don't think so. I think Germany will have their colonies taken if the try to start a war, then get given a large compensation and a note saying 'you don't need a fleet if you have no colonies to protect, enjoy merchant marine'.
Hell even if Germany gets plausible allies (imo any combination of Russia, AH, Italy and Ottomans), there's still the matter of prosecuting a war against the unassailable British isles, and I think everyone knows how unprepared TTLs central powers would be to fight in the middle east without the ability to resupply navally.

Before we get to far into this, lets remember that we still don't have a firm fix on the date, so is this in 1904, pre-dreadnought/Entente, or 1908, after the Russo-Japanese war? If this is in 1904, we get something like WWI 10 years early, but with the UK wearing the black hats rather than the Germans. If this starts in 1908, then did the Russiand and French sign off on this? Or are the Brits throwing them to the Huns?

We need more from the OP, before we go much further.

 

[Psmith]

We need more from the OP, before we go much further.

I was personally thinking of a 1908 POD when I started the thread simply because the Entente was a thing, the HSF was more developed by then, dreadnaughts had come into the game etc. However, having heard what other people have had to say on the matter on the thread I have reconsidered and now find a 1904 POD quite a bit more interesting, as it creates something seemingly closer to the Russo-Japanese War than WW1. As such, if anyone is stuck for a more precise POD I'll go with 04.

 

[anotherlurker]

So what, Germany should just laugh the murder of its sailors and sinking of its ships off and say "Wow Britain, that was a lovely joke!"

-Fund a Russian railway to India
-Fund an Ottoman railway to Suez
-Dreadnought is resetting naval matters soon (the 1904 strike idea)
-Get cozy with the Americans, the other big non-British navy
-Put pressure on alligned and friendly states to economically hurt the UK