偉大な恐ろしい戦争: A more bloody and impactful Boshin War

Who is winning the war?

  • Shogunate

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • Empire

    Votes: 16 59.3%
  • Shogunate (barely)

    Votes: 2 7.4%
  • Empire (barely)

    Votes: 4 14.8%

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .
Battle of Osaka, 1868
"A victory is a victory. A defeat is a defeat. Today is neither." - General Codrington


The Siege of Osaka:


Osaka_Castle_rampart_in_1865.jpg

(Osaka Castle, just months before the battle, 1868)


After Imperial successes across central Kansai, General Masujiro recommended the capture of the critical city of Osaka. A center of trade, it's ruler will surely be the wealthier one in the conflict, and thus it was necessary for the smaller Imperial force.

With more artillery from the British, General Codrington had a well armed army that could face any challenge. With Masujiro at his side and Takamori keeping the Shogunal forces in East Kansai at bay, Codrington felt confident in his victory. In fact, unless Takamori fell under the weathering pressure of Isami's forces, then the battle of Osaka would be in the footnotes of battle history.

Except that he did not count for the power of the navy. The Shogunate heavily focused on their navy (and were superb under the excellent leadership of Admiral Enomoto Takeaki), and after the victory at Awa, they were able to stockpile Osaka with tons of troops, enough to cover the whole city and the neighboring towns. The only problem was they couldn't risk losing a superb general and thus the forces were a bit decentralized. But no matter, they were for defensive purposes, and would stay their ground.


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(With control of East Shikoku's seas, the Shogunal forces were able to land in Osaka.)




Enomoto_Takeaki2.jpg

(Enomoto Takeaki was the greatest admiral in the whole Boshin War. He is often called "Masujiro of the Waves".)


General Codrington marched his men towards the villages. Masujiro, suspicious of the quiet, strongly advised Codrington that he prepare his men, which Codrington did. But neither expected the sound of "Charge!" made by the samurai garrisons. These Samurai were katana samurai, and after the initial collapse to gunpowder, once up close they mauled the modern soldiers of Codrington's army. Codrington ordered a tactical retreat, allowing Masujiro to take over the initial phase.

General Masujiro split up his forces into smaller "hunting groups" that were diverse in weaponry and could take on any threat. With Masujiro selecting excellent field captains, communication issues were essentially mute, and these groups picked off the village garrisons one by one.

Codrington had time to organize his soldiers into a more tank based unit, filled with cannons, gunmen, etc. Melee was behind the gunmen and next to the artillery, protecting it at all times. After the signal from Masujiro's men, Codrington's army marched through the battlefield. The advanced artillery easily broke down Osaka's wall's, and the well positioned gunmen shot down most of the Shogunal army in Osaka. The cavalry charges at the artillery were slaughtered by the Yari, and things were mostly going as planned. Codrington had proved his worth, gaining even more admiration from his Japanese men.


Everything started to break down though, when after the glorious fight the Imperial samurai decided that revenge is a drink best served bloody. Osaka's immense riches provided tremendous incentive for looting, and a plethora of crimes against humanity were committed. Codrington was shocked. He had seen brutality at Crimea plentifold, but he was unprepared for this. And thus, while to everyone, this was his heroic victory, he could never except that the battle was truly a victory. And the people of Osaka never forget, nor did they really ever forgive.
 
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The Imperials like otl of course.Is there any major pods apart from a British general being in the service of the imperials?

A few will occur later, but one of them that I haven't mentioned yet is that Shogun Yoshinobu was not in Osaka but instead was in Edo. This will be important in the near future.

I don't think it would be so obvious, due to the great naval advantage the Shogunate has at this point. But as far as land based momentum, the advantage goes to the Imperials. So I wonder what people prioritize more for long term. (naval advantage versus control of Kansai).

Also, another POD is the election of 1868. Before 1868, nothing changes.
 
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Factors to consider:

Osaka and Kyoto are the main cities of Kansai, and so both of them being under Imperial control, and with Takamori not budging eastern Kansai, it is fair to say right now that Kansai is under Imperial control. This gives the Imperials momentum and has lead to the Satsuma Chosh and Tosa domains solidifying Imperial control over Shikoku Kyushu and Chugoku.

Japan's naval routes are starting to be dominated by the Shogunate. This impacts monetary income as well as puts the Imperial home turf at a constant unease.
 
Factors to consider:

Osaka and Kyoto are the main cities of Kansai, and so both of them being under Imperial control, and with Takamori not budging eastern Kansai, it is fair to say right now that Kansai is under Imperial control. This gives the Imperials momentum and has lead to the Satsuma Chosh and Tosa domains solidifying Imperial control over Shikoku Kyushu and Chugoku.

Japan's naval routes are starting to be dominated by the Shogunate. This impacts monetary income as well as puts the Imperial home turf at a constant unease.

I'd say the bigger impact of Shogunate naval control is going to be strategic rather than economic. Interfering too much with British naval traffic runs the very real risk of drawing the Europeans deeper into the conflict on the Imperial side, and the Japanese are keenly aware of the fact that the gap between them and the Europeans is much bigger (or at least harder to compensate for) at sea than on land. Considering the terrain of Japan, though, moving around supplies and troops by land is an absolute pain. While the Imperials certainly hold strong positions, once the Shogunate gets its forces organized and dug in at strategic points they're going to start finding it VERY hard to dislodge them. Particularly once heavy weapons/gattling guns start to get involved on a larger scale, since dragging those things over the mountains is going to be an absolute logistical nightmare and the Shogunate is going to have superior access to them.

This has the potential to devolve into an American Civil War-esque or Siege of Svestapol-esque stalemate as part of the 2nd or 3rd "stage", with the long term advantage being on the Shogun's side in terms of raw military and economic positioning (Though, public opinion/politics is going to have a bigger impact, I imagine, and I'm less sure where that will land). The degree of that advantage depends a lot on just how heavy-handed the Shogun plays his ability to lock things down and how well that goes over with the peasantry and international observers. Take fishing, for example: you can place tight restrictions on civilian boat activity coming out of/operating in enemy lands to create food shortages in Imperial controlled territories, but are the affected populations going to blame the hardship on you?
 
I'd say the bigger impact of Shogunate naval control is going to be strategic rather than economic. Interfering too much with British naval traffic runs the very real risk of drawing the Europeans deeper into the conflict on the Imperial side, and the Japanese are keenly aware of the fact that the gap between them and the Europeans is much bigger (or at least harder to compensate for) at sea than on land. Considering the terrain of Japan, though, moving around supplies and troops by land is an absolute pain. While the Imperials certainly hold strong positions, once the Shogunate gets its forces organized and dug in at strategic points they're going to start finding it VERY hard to dislodge them. Particularly once heavy weapons/gattling guns start to get involved on a larger scale, since dragging those things over the mountains is going to be an absolute logistical nightmare and the Shogunate is going to have superior access to them.

This has the potential to devolve into an American Civil War-esque or Siege of Svestapol-esque stalemate as part of the 2nd or 3rd "stage", with the long term advantage being on the Shogun's side in terms of raw military and economic positioning (Though, public opinion/politics is going to have a bigger impact, I imagine, and I'm less sure where that will land). The degree of that advantage depends a lot on just how heavy-handed the Shogun plays his ability to lock things down and how well that goes over with the peasantry and international observers. Take fishing, for example: you can place tight restrictions on civilian boat activity coming out of/operating in enemy lands to create food shortages in Imperial controlled territories, but are the affected populations going to blame the hardship on you?


I appreciate your analysis. It’s very interesting to hear people’s analysis.


As for public opinion, the ishin-shishi and the Shinsengumi will do their respective factions bidding in terms of propaganda/rallying support. Majority of people in Osaka support the Shogunate as of now, and of course in Satsuma the vast majority of citizens are pro-Imperial.

There will be atrocities committed by both sides. So there won't be one evil side that the people rally against. Similar to the civil war in that regard.
 
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Imperials all the way. Though I'd be interested in seeing a take on what a victorious shogunate does after the Boshin War before as I've never seen a TL focused on that and it could be nice.
 
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