A few authorial contemplations on regions not discussed in myth and seminar, but heavily affected by the divergences of this timeline.
The time frame is 3500-2600 BCE – in other words, the period in which IOTL the Yamnaya horizon expanded (or should I say exploded?) across Eurasia.
Two main keywords describe the divergences in many (but not all) regions globally: continuity and homogeneity – not in comparison to earlier times, no, in comparison to them, these times are turbulent transformations and fragmented in nature, but in comparison to OTL, this clearly describes the ATL trend of divergence from OTL.
This is most evident in the Eastern half of the huge, immensely long latitudinal band of heavy butterfly infestation, which, the farther we move to the East, the more it coincides with the areas which IOTL were affected by the
Afanasievo migrations and later the Yamnaya expansion.
IOTL, the entire Kazakh and Baraba steppes and the Altai region had been populated, before the 38th century BCE, by semi-nomadic / semi-sedentary groups who lived around rivers and lakes, where they fished, but didn’t practice any agriculture, and which they periodically left to follow the migratory patterns of animals which they hunted. (Basically what people in the Pontic-Caspian steppe had done, too, before contact with Starčevo-Criş / Cucuteni-Tripolye had turned them into pastoralists over the course of the last centuries of the 6th millennium BCE, or in the case of the Easternmost pastoralist cultures along the Volga, in the early 5th millennium BCE.)
Compared to later times IOTL, when people on the steppe corridor lived radically different lives from their Northern forest-dwelling and their Southern desert-crossing neighbors, their cultures were a lot more similar to all these. Certainly, they hunted different animals (horses and saiga antilopes in the steppe, as compared to moose and aurochs in the Northern woodlands), they built their dug-in dwellings with different material (wood in the North, leather in the South) and wore different clothes. But they were all comparatively small groups of foragers who had almost settled down in permanent bases of operation, and they even decorated their pottery in much the same ways: by applying pressure with bone combs on the clay.
IOTL, all this changed radically when horse-domesticating people from the Dnieper, Don, and Volga began first to migrate across their lands and settle in the Altai and in the Minusinsk Hollow on the Upper Yenissey, then, much later, established themselves and their nomadic pastoralist ways there. ITTL, neither the Afanasievo, nor the Yamnaya culture occur, and as a consequence, neither do the
Botai culture and the
Glazkovo culture.
So, what takes their place?
Until 2600 BCE, I think it’s not much of a stretch to postulate that we’d see cultures in a continuous relation to those like the
Yekaterininka culture (unfortunately only on German Wikipedia) in this region, and its Northern and Southern neighbors, who IOTL became increasingly influenced by the Yamnaya expansion, to show
Pit Comb Ware traits across the entire Northern forest zone, while in the South I’d expect, for example, the
Kelteminar culture to continue and develop a lot more continuous for a much longer time.
What does that mean, beyond archaeological shorthand? It means that, East of the Ural Mountains, in the Eurasian steppe West of the Dzungarian Gates, where horses have become extinct before 3500 BCE ITTL, things continue a lot less changed. People will fish, people will hunt, and when there are no longer any meaty horses around, they’ll probably target the next best group (Red List alert for saigas….). They won’t be washed over by influences from the West Yamnaya-style – instead, there will be autochtonous innovations (better dog breeds, better bows and arrowheads, maybe flat-bottomed pots) and in some limited areas, external influences, too – mostly in the “West of the East”, i.e. in relative proximity to the Caspian Sea, where both influences from the South, from what we call IOTL the Iranian plateau – at this point, a hotbed of civilizational developments: Jiroft! Teppe Sialk! – and from the West, from the Pontic-Caspian space (see below) seep in. Without a horse culture, their dissemination will be severely spatially limited and slow, though. So, their lifestyle will look increasingly archaic when compared to the rest of the world.
A less extreme, yet still marked example of greater continuity and less heterogeneity compared to OTL is Central Europe. In the time frame 3500-2800 BCE, i.e. after Lengyel but before Corded Ware, OTL’s Central Europe is a stunningly heterogeneous patchwork of cultures:
Baden,
Wartberg,
Walternienburg-Bernburg,
Havel,
Horgen,
Cham,
Globular Amphora… They differ in so many ways from each other, even locally contingent ones: some are depositing their dead in stone chambers, others in holes, others burn them; some with and some without burial gifts; some have copper, others don’t; their ceramics differ massively, and so do their dwellings (with regards to geography, architecture, building materials etc.). Little of that has anything to do with natural geographical determinants, for earlier (e.g. LBK) or later (e.g. Corded Ware) horizons were much more uniform over much larger parts of the very same territory. Where does this heterogeneity come from?
I believe it boils down to two interrelated reasons: the occasional Westward movement of groups influenced by the Indo-Europeanisation and horse adaptation on the Danube, and the introduction of society-changing innovations like the horse, the wheel, everything related to the Secondary Products Revolution, and improving metallurgy.
ITTL, the latter factor will still make itself felt, but in a different way, because the former is missing. In contrast to highly mobile horse-based groups who have made the Pannonian plains into a sort of Western outpost loosely connected with their steppe-centered world, the Amaloxians, who are going to do the “influence from the East” part in this timeline, are comparatively slow and limited in overland range.
So, what still affects Central Europe around this time is a slow dissemination of wheeled vehicles, which creeps Westwards in the first centuries of the 3rd millennium BCE, an integration of the Eastern fringe into the economic system dominated by Amaloxia (e.g. tin exports, bronze imports), possibly Amaloxian settlers in that fringe, too, and increased importance of wool, dairy products etc., along with the scattering of settlements and the “conquest” of more marginal lands as herding increases its relative importance, even though agriculture, fishing and hunting are going to remain as predominant here as IOTL, or even more so. Also, cultural concepts are going to seep in from the Amaloxian East: statehood, female-centered theocracy, writing… While the socio-economic conditions in comparatively sparsely populated Central Europe are not conducive to a wholesale adoption of any of these feature, they’re still likely to produce reactions. And such reactions are rarely purely rejective or assimilative, and most of the time a mix of both, with differing emphases. Both developments are probable to occur: a tendentially adversive group may hold on to male-centered concepts, but these are likely to transform from acephalous patrilinear societies into cultures with warrior chiefs, for example – and the latter are certainly going to cloak themselves with religious roles, not just because that’s the mindset of the time, but also because the Amaloxians are doing the same. If you’re a copper-, brass- and later bronze-rejecting culture, which at first means your leaders won’t let the Amaloxians buy their loyalty with gifts, but later means a lot more, you’ll still have to adapt at least your weaponry to be able to compete with neighbours whom the Amaloxians outfit with brass, then bronze long-sickles.
Some innovations may seep in in less polarizing (e.g. the introduction of Eastern Mediterranean fruits like cherries or cereal crops like new types of wheat) and maybe even more superficial ways – chiefly among them writing. Central Europe mostly isn’t ready to develop full-fledged sign systems of their own yet which would be variations of the Amaloxian one – but it might enter the stage of proto-writing around this time, with both Amaloxian signs being understood and used by a very small group of people doing trade with the Amaloxians, mostly in the East and along the Danube, and maybe a few altered signs turning up in religious contexts of other groups. I can well imagine the stone chambers and other megalithic monuments of this time being increasingly adorned, in some places, with enigmatic, mysterious signs which bear remote resemblance to Old Amaloxian logographemes but which TTL’s palaeolinguists are yet unable to decipher.
So, while major transformations AND differential and polarizing developments in reaction to Amaloxian influences are still likely, that doesn’t mean it’s going to result in the same type of checkerboard that OTL was. Also, Amaloxian influences are not the only ones affecting Central Europe around this time. This is also a period of massive territorial expansion of megalith construction. The reasons (ideology…) behind megaliths are still mostly unknown to us, so my choice to define their culture as emphatically community-oriented and ancestor-worshipping, with males dominating as warriors, is certainly putative and controversial. But whatever they were, they were an expanding horizon for sure; something about it was highly attractive.
If, as I said, Eastern/Danubian influence is at once highly asymmetrical and comparatively slower than IOTL, then I believe it makes sense to postulate the emergence of only three major cultural horizons in Central Europe:
- one in the North (A), which is similar to OTL’s Funnelbeaker, but stretches slightly farther Southward in the absence of newly arrived alien groups in the Walternienburg-Bernburg and the Globular Amphora territory, and shows much greater megalith-isation tendencies over time – this one is likely the one which, at its Eastern fringe, comes into contact with Western Indo-European speakers (see below), causing, via a transitional period in which agriculture is cautiously adopted, the latter's absorption into the wider Tanayan world;
- a split one in the South-East, as a follower of alt-Lengyel, where two groups live together in the same area: one which shows clear signs of Amaloxianisation (B1), and another one which shows signs of rejection of said trend (B2);
- and one in the South-West (C), which shares OTL Wartburg’s preference for stone chamber burials, but doesn’t necessarily feature so many settlements on elevated, fortifiable positions, instead being considered one and the same with more Westerly groups like OTL’s Seine-Oise-Marne and Horgen.
So what about this Ɵinu? Prof Hadjeamin has so far only mentioned him as a sign of increased organization in the rest of Tanaya. He’s a cautious scholar here. What I wanted this character to open up is the potential / the question of what happens when B2 allies with C: I’ve put Central Europe on a collision course between an Eastward-expanding megalithic horizon – which is still a lot more fragmented, heterogeneous and less organized – and a Westward expanding Amaloxian sphere of influence.
Finally, let’s tackle the proper Pontic-Caspian steppe, where all the divergence began. The homeland of Proto-Indo-European speaker, ITTL like IOTL. ITTL, I’ve already said that they’re going to differentiate into a Western and an Eastern branch around this time.
What I haven’t said is how f***ed these guys really are without horses and with a hostile civilsed neighbor like the Amaloxians at their doorstep. They adopted pastoralism with the cattle/sheep/goat kit (pigs weren’t much good without agriculture in the steppe from the beginning) between 5400-5200 BCE in the West (and until 4750 BCE farther East), i.e. the same kit as OTL only without horses. Two times already until 2600 BCE, the climate grows colder and more arid yet: once around 4250 BCE, and once around 3250 BCE. Each time, the steppe becomes a worse place for pastoralists without horses – and in 3250 BCE in contrast to OTL also without wheels yet. (The steppe has also become a worse place for agriculturalists, too – which is why TTL’s Amaloxian cultures and states have quietly abandoned all lands East of the Dniester without further mention. It’s land cursed by Apašuň’s and Akšiwe’s absence, land barely fit for the crazy sky-worshipping Dyuh, don’t mention it.)
With one hostile neighbor (in the West, on the Danube) and another neighbor coming later to the club of the civilized than IOTL (the Maykop culture, probably Northwest Caucasian-speaking wine-growers and terrace-builders) because of the absence of horses which shorten the distances across the Caucasus to the fountains of technological innovation in Mesopotamia, they also stand little chance to face these challenges by improving what they’ve got. Breeding sheep for longer and more useful hair is probably still going to happen – and help everyone else a great deal, too. But other than that, I doubt that the Pontic-Caspian steppe of this timeline is going to be anything other than a rather miserable dry backwater.
So, before around 3000 BCE, the only thing we can expect coming from there is people trying to get out.
The Western branch, those people who were closest to the Amaloxians and pushed off by them, moved Westward along the Pripyat marches and jumping Westward from one river/brook of the Carpathians’ Northern piedmont (a region OTL-historically referred to as Galicia-Wolhynia) to the next, will run into the alt-Funnelbeaker guys sooner or later. A few people are going to die, and a lot of people will have to make choices they don’t like, but sooner or later, the Western branch of the Indo-Europeans are going to start chopping down trees, sowing emmer, barley, einkorn, lentils, and peas, and earning their hot cereal mash by the sweat of their brow, like all their neighbors. After all, there is no universal law stating that early Indo-European speakers must remain predominantly pastoralists – they were IOTL because it was a successful prestigious model, but ITTL their model sucks in this region and time, and some of them are going to leave it behind. When they do, it’ll be just a matter of time until they also take over other cultural attributes and maybe even the language of their alt-Funnelbeaker neighbors, which is probably Very Old European (to differentiate it from what we tend to call Old European, like the Danubian languages, and which is derived from a wave of immigration from Anatolia in the 8th and 7th millennium BCE) and bears resemblance with no language that we know. By 2600 BCE, such a language change will not have happened yet, though.
The Eastern branch, from the Crimea to the alt-Maykop and upriver on the Dnieper and Don, are probably periodically haunting the Northern piedmont of the Caucasus and not faring any better – until roughly around 3000 BCE. By this time, two important things happen: they will have adopted the innovation of the wheel, and they come into contact with a new colony of sedentary agriculturalists of the especially commercially-minded type (Tikhwiz!), at exactly a time when they have something to offer (wool in great quantities). As the last two updates already hinted at, I think this is the time when things get moving in the Pontic-Caspian steppe again. They won’t necessarily start writing or worship a mother goddess. But wheeled vehicles facilitate transhumance and migration a lot, and massive exposition to metallurgy may, if it hits someone with knowledge about the ores of the Urals, lead to an adoption of metallurgy on their part, too – a lot later than IOTL, but at least it does start moving. And, as comparatively friendly relations may blossom at least temporarily here, the appearance of yet more little towns practicing agriculture in the valleys of the Dnieper and the Don and in the Maeotian swamps and maybe even along the Volga (and if metal is used, even farther up North-East) is not excluded. That is – until 2600 BCE, when the first event descried in the next regular update (beside another authorial one concerning linguistic questions) is going to happen…
A question I am currently massively pondering is to what extent the events of this timeline so far would butterfly the
Kura-Araxes migrations across the Southern Caucasus, or divert them. I would be really grateful if anyone could provide me with some ideas and input here.
Any other feedback is very welcome, too, of course!