The Tianjin
@frank_ originally mentioned is quite obviously based on the historical concession but, since there were several concessions in Tianjin, this might mean at least two things:
1) The independent city-state of Tianjin comprises only the former Italian concession, something that'd be highly unlikely since then it would be a landlocked and Vatican City-sized city-state without any sort of value, or 2) the independent city-state of Tianjin is the smallest federal state in the world, with the former concessions having their own laws and their own legislatures, and with the state as a whole being a member of several supra-national organizations at once. I really like this idea since this Tianjin would end up resembling something straight out of a Neal Stephenson novel, a Hong Kong on crack cocaine more similar to a pirate haven than an actual state, that would probably be a US libertarian's wet dream if it weren't for all those different ethnicities and religions co-existing peacefully and intermarrying at a rate that would make a neo-Nazi have a heart attack.
As for China, I think that due to your stronger version of Russia the Qing Dynasty was screwed even
harder than in OTL, because the Great Game might end up including China as well.
Here's a map of the Qing Empire:
I fully expect the areas in light yellow
not to be a part of TTL China, and maybe not even South China would be a part of it, either: the territorial losses that Portugal has suffered in northern Brazil due to butterflies could be balanced by them keeping Formosa and - along with the British and French - gaining more territory in Guangdong.
So...
Manchuria and
Mongolia - part of the PIC, according to the map on your website;
Dzungaria - the genocide is butterflied away, and today the northern half of Xinjiang is an Oirat-speaking khanate closely aligned to the PIC, with Ürümqi as its capital;
Kashgaria - the Dungan Revolt is successful, and today the southern half of Xinjiang is an Uyghur-speaking emirate under a descendant of Yaqub Beg;
Tibet - the British penetrate in the region much earlier as a result of Russia's increased influence, and replace the Dalai Lama, who flees to Dzungaria, with their puppet the King of Bhutan, who restores the Tibetan Empire, that today is kind of like a wealthier (due to Tibet's resources) version of Bhutan; the Dalai Lama was invited back in Tibet in 1950, and today he wields an
immense amount of influence over both Dzungaria and Tibet, also owing to his status as a "bridge" between the British-influenced and PIC-influenced parts of Buddhist Central Asia; however, he doesn't have the same charisma or reputation as our Tenzin Gyatso and, instead of being a Gandhi-like figure in the eyes of the world, he's just another religious leader.
Yunnan - as the restored
Nanzhao Kingdom, it's an ethnically diverse warlord state turned constitutional monarchy.
The
Zhuang Kingdom, between Yunnan and Guangxi, has a similar history, but
Moism plays a very big role in the state.
The
Federal Republic of Nanyue is a Liangguang-based state born in 1999, when the former British, French and Portuguese colonies decided to become a much bigger version of Tianjin; the capital is Guangzhou.
Formosa is a former Portuguese colony, and the northernmost outpost of the Austronesian world; just like the Philippines in OTL, it has been
massively influenced by the culture of its former colonial overlord, and the
lingua franca of the country is basically a Portuguese-based counterpart to the Spanish-based Chavacano creole of the Philippines.
The
Taiping Heavenly Kingdom covers the diverse region of Southeast China; the premature death of Hong Xiuquan allowed an extremely ambitious young man of Hakka descent to rise to power, mostly by promising the British that his rule would've seen the introduction of a more traditionalist form of Christianity to the state, rather than Hong's heretical beliefs. He indeed delivered, but the Church of the Heavenly Kingdom that he founded, while based on beliefs considered orthodox by a wide variety of Protestant denominations, ended up resembling an idealized version of primitive Christianity; the office of Taiping Heavenly King was granted to God himself, while the country was transformed into a pseudo-Tolstoyan Christian anarchist federation. The experiment did not last long, and today the Heavenly Kingdom is a federal constitutional monarchy, but the Church of the Heavenly Kingdom lives on, as one of the most liberal Christian denominations in the world, on par with the Waldensians of Piedmont.
The
Chinese Empire has survived - under a dynasty other than the Qing - but, similarly to South Korea, it was under
de facto military rule for several decades, with the local junta pushing an agenda heavy on militarism, nationalism and tradition. Just like OTL South Korea, the country has democratized in the last few decades, and it's a First World country as developed as South Korea, but they really don't like the Jesus-worshipping hippies to their south, or the Buddha-worshipping barbarians to their north - as a result, they're figuratively fellating Confucius pretty hard, and it shows - young Chinese people who study abroad often decide to stay abroad, sick and tired of the conformist and almost military-like culture of the homeland.