Alternate Electoral Maps II
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1988
After winning a landslide Presidential victory in his own right, President Bayh was emboldened, and quickly began working on his and his Vice President's priorities: he introduced legislation to alleviate the pay gap, utilized the strong economy to cut taxes for the middle-class and improve them for the poor, worked to improve education funding and ensured a rigorous campaign of AIDS awareness. But what defined 1985-6 in American politics was 'BayhCare'- the derisive name given to his plans for universal healthcare by conservatives in Congress.
The Healthcare Reform Act, as it was known, was intended to ensure all Americans had easy access to healthcare plans which were affordable relative to their incomes, but opponents suggested the funding numbers Bayh gave did not add up and that implementing the plan would cripple the economy. In addition, with discontent after 32 years of Democratic control of both chambers of Congress, they finally lost both chambers to the Republicans in the 1986 midterms.
While the Republican Congress obviously continued to block 'BayhCare', two factors occurred in the next two years, which were each detrimental to one of the parties. The first was the farm crisis in the Midwest, which hurt the Democrats as the incumbent government and, more specifically, due to the grain embargo against the Soviet Union.
The other, however, was more unusual. The events of Black Monday in October 1987, in which the stock markets crashed worldwide and a 508-point fall in the Dow Jones was recorded (the largest single-day fall in history), actually damaged the Republicans, as President Bayh and other Democrats successfully pinned the accusation on them that stopping 'BayhCare' had nothing to do with keeping the economy stable.
The nominee who took the Democratic nomination in 1988, Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, took this premise and ran with it, focusing on defending labor rights and insulating ordinary Americans from what he called 'corporate opportunism'. On top of this, he picked Representative Dick Gephardt of Missouri, a figure with a decent amount of clout among trade unions, as his running mate.
On the Republican side, the two leading lights were Senator Phil Gramm of Texas and Senator Pete Wilson of California, two unabashed fiscal conservatives and advocates of free trade, with Gramm using Wilson's earlier commitment to running for the Governorship of his home state to paint him as inconsistent and willing to break promises, which allowed him to pull ahead. Despite his conservative record, Gramm tried to appeal to moderates, reasoning that conservatives would never jump ship with Dukakis as the alternative; he stressed his former record as a Democrat, and picked Senator Warren Rudman of New Hampshire, a social liberal and Jew, as his running mate, managing to hide his grievances with Rudman well (years later, he admitted that he picked Rudman in no small part because he was worried Dukakis would do well in New England and wanted to alleviate the damage).
With the economy stabilizing, Dukakis spun it to his advantage, asserting that he would improve public infrastructure with the extra revenue. Gramm's campaign ads, however, famously declared that 'Republicans will make you richer' by pledging tax cuts across the board that would save Americans of all classes thousands of dollars, as well as citing the governance of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as a positive example. Predictably, this was met with ridicule by Democrats; a heckler in a Gramm campaign rally in Chicago famously played the satirical 'Loadsamoney (Doin' Up The House)' British single and drowned his speech out.
It was clear by election day the race would be a close one. Exit polls suggested Dukakis was doing well in urban areas and areas with large ethnic minority populations, which was serving him well in Southern and Western states that might otherwise have been walkovers for Gramm, but falling badly behind in the suburban and rural vote.
Gramm/Rudman (Republican): 309 EVs, 51.0%
Dukakis/Gephardt (Democratic): 229 EVs, 47.4%
For his part, Dukakis had done very well for a left-leaning Democrat, especially considering the upheaval of the last few years. He did not fare well in rural America, but did pull off a few surprises, like carrying Vermont (much to Gramm's irritation) and squeaking out a win in New Mexico, the closest state in the nation. It was clear, however, that the South's devotion to Democrats was conditional on the candidate, as only Missouri and West Virginia voted in Dukakis's favour.
Voters hoping for a peaceful four years under President Gramm would be disappointed, and so would voters expecting the Republicans to make them richer.
United States Presidential Election, 1948
Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Earl Warren (R-CA): 336
Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Alben W. Barkley (D-KY): 156
Strom Thurmond (SRD-SC)/Fielding L. Wright (SRD-MS): 39
(I posted this map earlier. It shows the universal swing within the states between Gallup's final poll and the actual result, which is +4 for Dewey and -4 for Truman.)
United States Presidential Election, 1952
Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Earl Warren (R-CA): 313
Estes Kefauver (D-TN)/W. Averell Harriman (D-NY): 218
Richard Russell, Jr. (D-GA)/Strom Thurmond (D-SC): 2 (Faithless)
Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Earl Warren (R-CA): 336
Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Alben W. Barkley (D-KY): 156
Strom Thurmond (SRD-SC)/Fielding L. Wright (SRD-MS): 39
(I posted this map earlier. It shows the universal swing within the states between Gallup's final poll and the actual result, which is +4 for Dewey and -4 for Truman.)
United States Presidential Election, 1952
Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Earl Warren (R-CA): 313
Estes Kefauver (D-TN)/W. Averell Harriman (D-NY): 218
Richard Russell, Jr. (D-GA)/Strom Thurmond (D-SC): 2 (Faithless)
From Forgotten No More:
The Third Party System (1880-1924)
Newfoundland is the only state where no Party won a plurality of elections in the Third Party System
Ute was the only state where a minor Party won a plurality of times during the Third Party System
The Third Party System lasted almost twice as long as the Second, and just eight years shy of the First. It was a period marked by a return to largely bi-partisan federal government competition in the form of the Federalist Party and the newly formed Workers Party. It was an era defined by reformism across both sides of government, American involvement in critical wars, and an explosion of the American middle class. It was also a period marked by increasing government bureaucracy, corruption, scandals, and political bloodshed. Despite it overseeing two less elections than the First, the Third Party System carried the most Presidents of the first three systems at 14. Undoubtedly the period was marked by a few events, but the Presidency of George Armstrong Custer is easily considered a watershed moment in US history. Though Custer did not destroy the Third Party System, he did change it substantially and played a major role in the eventual growth of the Constitution Party. As such, the system can be sub-divided into two phases, the Early Third and the Late Third, both spanning 6 elections a piece.Ute was the only state where a minor Party won a plurality of times during the Third Party System
Early Third
Newfoundland did not participate in any election during the Early Third
Gray states indicate a tie between the Workers and Federalist Party
Virginia voted for the Federalist candidate in all six elections, while Indiana, Lee and Minnesota all voted for the Workers candidate in all six elections.
The Early Third saw six different Presidents, massive economic and foreign policy success, on the backs of reforms meant to bring up the average American so that another crisis like the Long Sad would never befall America again. Despite the important reforms of the era, typically associated with the Workers, only two of the six men that held the office in this phase of the Third Party System were members of the Party. The other four were Federalists, and one, George Armstrong Custer, would serve longer than any other President in United States history at 11 years in office. Custer would be the first President elected to three terms. His 1896 victory is considered the biggest theft in US election history, and it heralded Electoral College reform. Minimum wage laws, income taxes, and an assortment of other labor laws were the main focus of debate in these years, culminating in the 1900 election of Thompson Murch, called the New England Marx by opponents. The period is also notable for the Great War that occurred during Custer's presidency which greatly expanded the United State's border and standing internationally, despite costing hundreds of thousands of lives and having started on dubious grounds. Custer's decision to use federal troops to defend black voters across the Upper South would be tipping points amongst many who felt the federal government had overstepped it's boundaries. The factions would eventually coalesce under the moniker of the Constitution Party in 1904, bringing in the Late Third.Newfoundland did not participate in any election during the Early Third
Gray states indicate a tie between the Workers and Federalist Party
Virginia voted for the Federalist candidate in all six elections, while Indiana, Lee and Minnesota all voted for the Workers candidate in all six elections.
Late Third
Gray states indicate a tie between the Workers and Federalist Party
The Constitution Party won a plurality of elections in three states during the Late Third
The Late Third spans the latter half of the Third Party System and is marked by the more volatile nature of the economy, the rise of soqualist common thought, and the Reactionary Movement of the early 20th Century. The Constitution Party would be the only third party to garner significant staying power throughout the Third Party System, becoming the embodiment of the Reactionary Movement with it's social conservatism, pro-state rights, anti-government platform. Federal troops became an election constant in various states creating much turmoil. Rather than reducing election violence, clashes between private militias and federal ballot guards became frequent. Amongst the most racist circles, attacks against black Americans intensified; lynchings rose exponentially in the Late Third. Black militias would also form in this period as a reaction, centered on the Reconstructed States, but also present across cities of the Midwest where many African-Americans settled in the Early Third. The social movement known as common thought soqualism became mainstream during this period; President Miles continued to protect black troops, the Federalists nominated Booker T. Washington in 1912, Andy Rabinovich was elected and his sweeping reforms passed, then W.E.B. Du Bois would be elected in 1920. Of course, Rabinovich, and Du Bois, would be assassinated, and the latter assassination would rock the nation into a breaking point. With the Constitution Party outlawed and it's leaders arrested following their alleged involvement in the Inaugural Day Riot and Assassination of Du Bois and Hawley, the nation fell into a three-way Civil Crisis. With States threatening secession, and others harboring illegitimate Free Republic governments, radical change was coming to America. Nicholas Butler would win the last election in the Third Party System, bringing with him a new Constitutional Convention and, undoubtedly, a new era of politics in America.Gray states indicate a tie between the Workers and Federalist Party
The Constitution Party won a plurality of elections in three states during the Late Third
Another election in Gondor:
- The Alliance of the Faithful of Ondonore, previously main coalition party, has lost a few constituencies. It is a rather catch-all party, while its typical voter is not an ethnic Dúnedain but accustomed to Dúnedain culture. The typical voter would be a woman living in a small town in the river valleys of the White Mountains, of as mentionned, non-Dúnedain ancestry. The party emphasizes on friendly relations with Rohan, Elves and Dwarves, and is for the teaching of Sindarin. It holds true to Elendils, Isildurs and Anárions legacy.
- The Traditionalist League is the rival of the above. It is a conservative party, true to the legacy of Castamir (not saying he is the glorious Founding Father, but the party emphasizes his policies, adapted to modern times of course). The party emphasizes the Númenorean origins, and is against the use of Sindarin in state administration (it should be done in Sóval Phare of Adúnaic). The party would also wish to change the foreign policy, pursuing friendly relation with other Númenorean nations, such as Umbar. A typical voter would be a man living in the farms of the coastal regions, especially Lebennin and western Anfalas, of Númennorean descent.
- The Trader´s League suffered quite a large defeat in these elections. This party pursues a liberal policy, wishing to have a zero-conflict foreign policy (this means reaching an agreement with Mordor; something that the Peoples Guard would not even listen to, and would quit the session when the issue was raised). The typical voter would a business man living in the cities of Gondor. The party highly respects individual freedoms, and would reduce the role of the State.
- The Lionheart Faction has taken a few constituencies from the Alliance of the Faithful. It holds true to the legacy of Eldacar; it emphasized the alliance with Rohan in foreign policy. It opposes a strong Numenorean identity of Gondor. Its bastions are Anórien and Lossarnach. A typical voter would be a Gondorian (of non-Númenorean descent) living in one of the villages or manors in Anórien.
- Peoples Guard is a hardline-nationalist party in Gondor (perhaps comparable to Front National). Many of its campaign materials are the "orcpostings", which parody Traders League liberal stance. This party is for a military solution of the Ithilien issue; the party keeps winning the constituencies in Ithilien, and the Anduin cities. A typical voter is a person living in Ithilien (or more precisely a person originating from Ithilien), or soldiers who have returned from duty in the area. The party employs a confrontational rhetoric towards Mordor, while their perception of Harondor or Umbar is not that good either. The ethnic minorities are seldom mentioned, although they question the loyalty of Sakalai people living in the Anduin estuary
- Daen Hillman Bond is an ethnic minority advocating the interest of the Daen people of northern Anfalas and Mornan. They are largely indifferent to issues of foreign policy, but their agenda is to ensure education also in the Daenic language, and extend the Mornan Autonomous Region to include parts of northeastrn Anfalas as well. When asked, they would say that Gondor should try and support the Dunlendings or at least intervene for a peaceful solution of the war with Rohan.
- The Native Claims Alliance is another ethnic minority party, claiming to defend the interests of three peoples: The Sakalaim in the Ethir Anduin, the Drúedain of Anfalas and Anórien, and the Calenardhrim refugees. While originally founded as an affirmative action party, to ensure equal citizenship for those people. However, the Calenardhrim diaspora, found in mainly in the towns of western Anórien, pursues an irredentist policy towards Rohan, wishing to reclaim the land as Calenardhon., and this group is by far the most vocal from the three. This policy is sometimes supported by some members from the Traditionalist Laegue, but not anymore.
Until recently, Gondorian citizens living in Calenardhon (Rohan) could have voted at the Gondorian embassy in Edoras and the consulates n Aglarond (Hornbung) and Calmirie (Aldburg). The constituency has been abolished due to NCA always nominating a candidate full of agressive rhetoric towards Rohan, who almost always won.
Virginia was actually pretty solid in the Clinton camp. I say that because I went by five points to Clinton instead of Trump. Even without Kaine, due to Sanders having such big numbers of Trump he probably would have kept most of that lead and therefore won the state. So I'd say Virginia for Sanders and he wins the election.
Those Sanders v. Trump polls were conducted while Clinton, as the likely nominee, was the main focus of GOP attacks. The Republicans had a whole treasure trove of oppo research ready on Bernie in case they had to go up against him but didn't use since they wanted him to drag out the primaries.
Trump attacked Sanders numerous times, and he was given a hurl of insults. A communist, a socialist and a lunatic. Those ultimately did not butcher him in the polls. People forget how differently things could easily have gone in that election when Clinton did that deplorable remark, she dropped roughly 1% in the polls. If Sanders had but kept that one percent things would have gone so much differently.
I can see how Sanders could have won.
However, for the sake of argument, what state of johnguy's map would you flip for a Trump victory scenario (since you're flipping Virginia to Sanders)?
Not sure to be honest. There were states that didn't like Sanders, but they tend not to be swing states that were up for grabs by either party. However, If I had to guess it would be Minnesota.
The first one of those scandals is not as bad as what it is being made out to be, his campaign spokesperson describes it as a bad attempt at satire. A key issue that I think would have handed Sanders the election is his position of being a change candidate and having a mostly consistent record, something which Hillary Clinton simply did not have.
I could see the argument for Sanders winning, but if you want to continue this discussion we can have it via PM to prevent derailing the thread
1912 maps
This is the 1912 election with the OTL first-place finisher in each state removed; surprisingly (at least to me), Debs came in second place in Florida:
Roosevelt – 232, Wilson – 214, Taft – 79, Debs – 6
The map on the left is the 1912 election when Wilson’s numbers are simply removed from each state; the map in the middle is the 1912 election when Roosevelt’s numbers are simply removed from each states (interestingly, Taft ends with winning Michigan); the map on the right is the 1912 election when Taft’s numbers are simply removed from each state:
And here are the third-place state winners of OTL’s 1912 election (L) and the fourth-place state winners of OTL’s 1912 election (R; in which the Prohibitionist candidate Eugene Chafin curiously gets five states):
This is the 1912 election with the OTL first-place finisher in each state removed; surprisingly (at least to me), Debs came in second place in Florida:
Roosevelt – 232, Wilson – 214, Taft – 79, Debs – 6
The map on the left is the 1912 election when Wilson’s numbers are simply removed from each state; the map in the middle is the 1912 election when Roosevelt’s numbers are simply removed from each states (interestingly, Taft ends with winning Michigan); the map on the right is the 1912 election when Taft’s numbers are simply removed from each state:
And here are the third-place state winners of OTL’s 1912 election (L) and the fourth-place state winners of OTL’s 1912 election (R; in which the Prohibitionist candidate Eugene Chafin curiously gets five states):
I'd say Pennsylvania to be honest. Wisconsin is a white Working class state, a key demographic Sanders performs well with. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is allot more conservative than many people think. Obama actually said in 2008 primary that Pennsylvanian voters stick "too much to their Guns." In addition, Pennsylvania is known for its high percentage of African Americans, a demographic Sanders, as we know from the primaries, performs poorly with.
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