Hey y'all, I'm back. I've finally kicked the flu and felt energetic enough to finish the final edit for this section. Once again, sorry for letting this get a little bit buried. Additionally, this is one of the most challenging parts of the TL for me as I'm not American so I've had to do a lot of cursory research to find certain individuals and sentiments of the time, and what would make sense or be different in the context of this new TL. In any case, I hope you'll enjoy this long-overdue update!
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Part 2: The 'Border Bout War' Begins
Though the occupation of the unfinished Fort Sumter in South Carolina was technically the first military action of the American Civil War, the first real battle between the armies of the USA and CSA was the Battle of Big Bethel. With Virginia's defection, they sent troops to the Virginia peninsula in order to deter any Union (US) designs on the new capital of Richmond from their base at Fort Monroe. The battle was bungled by a lack of Union leadership, resulting in an early and morale-boosting victory for the nascent CSA.
General-in-Chief Winfield Scott had earlier devised a plan for a Union blockade of Southern ports, followed by a campaign down the Mississippi to cut the South in two. Many Union generals challenged this plan, as they wanted a more direct and vigorous war. Such cries only worsened after the embarrassing loss at Big Bethel. Some even derided it as an anaconda, slowly suffocating its prey. This earned Scott's plan the nickname of "The Anaconda Plan."
Portrait of Winfield Scott, Lieutenant-General and commander of the Union Army
Dated 1855
To Scott's credit, he was looking at the big picture and looking at the long-term result. The strategy could not be implemented immediately as the USA was still recovering from the Pan American War, with a decimated US Navy being unable to effectively blockade the entire South. A good chunk of industrial production had been lost in D.C. and New York state, and no warships suitable for the proposed Mississippi campaign existed as of yet. It would take time to gather and train the forces needed to carry out the Mississippi thrust, time that the critics of the plan were initially unwilling to concede.
Scott and his allies continued to argue that going for quick big battles could result in a needless loss of troops and morale. They knew that the North still had the advantage in terms of industry and manpower, but they would need time and patience to bring it to bear effectively. In the meantime, the border slave states of Missouri and Kentucky would be the deciding factor of the war for now. Though slave states, Missouri and Kentucky did not secede from the Union nor did they send militia against their southron neighbours. Nevertheless, the war would find its way into both of these states.
For the Confederacy, Missouri and Kentucky helped to secure natural river boundaries and control over the lower Mississippi River. It would also give them the hope of taking Ohio and severing the Union in half. The hope would be to then sue for peace and leave take a good chunk of the western territory with them. For the Union, holding onto Missouri and Kentucky would keep the South on their toes, widen the front, and give them a strategic access point to the Mississippi River with which to execute a part of General Scott's 'Anaconda Plan'.
Political Cartoon of Scott's 'Great Snake', an allegory for his plan to slowly squeeze the South to defeat
Missouri would be the biggest battleground. Though a slave state, it held a great deal of Union supporters. Its official neutrality was soon eroded with the emergence of Confederate-supporting militias in the south around Springfield. Northern supporters soon emerged to fight them in turn and Missouri soon found itself as a key battleground in the civil war, itself experience a miniature civil war. A key event in the Union's favour however was the early securing of the federal arsenals in St. Louis [1]. This would provide the Union with more ammunition and firearms early on. However, there was still the issue of bringing men and materiel to the front.
In Kentucky, there was a strong desire to remain neutral in the conflict. Unfortunately for Kentuckians, their state proved too strategically valuable to give up for either side. It did not take long for a Confederate Kentucky 'shadow government' to be established and for militias to be raised in defense of Kentucky. The internal conflicts in Kentucky and Missouri, as well as Union and Confederate attempts to interfere, would come to be known as the 'Border Bout War' and would be crucial to deciding which side would win the Civil War.
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[1] In OTL, the Confederates grabbed one of the two main arsenals. In this TL, they don't.