Japanese Navy without Pacific War

[General Ripper]

I think the China Nationalist vs. Mao Communist issue is the biggest question mark issue from this thread. Without the common enemy of Japan, the Nationalist army is better trained and prepared to win the Chinese civil war plus the war will erupt years earlier.

Hmm, yes, but the same was the truth 10 or 15 or 20 years before, but the Communists are still there. Now, Communists have support of the Soviet Union- because I don't think that Soviets would spend all that blood and treasure without getting something in return. Or, why replace hostile Japanese in Manchuria with ( potentially ) hostile Chinese in Manchuria?

 

[nbcman]

I wouldn't exactly call Zero weakly armed nor much lightly armoured than say Mustang.

Lets see, A6M guns:

• 2× 7.7 mm (0.303 in) Type 97 aircraft machine guns in the engine cowling, with 500 rounds per gun.
• 2× 20 mm Type 99-1 cannon in the wings, with 60 rounds per gun.

P-51 Mustang

6 × 0.50 caliber (12.7mm) AN/M2 Browning machine guns with 1,840 total rounds (380 rounds for each on the inboard pair and 270 rounds for each of the outer two pair)

I'd take the Mustang with almost double the MG ammo that is 50% higher caliber over the Zero. Plus the Mustang was far more maneuverable than the Zero at the higher elevations where the strategic bombers flew.

 

[jsb]

Zero might be replacement for Mustang, as escort with long range.

I wouldn't exactly call Zero weakly armed nor much lightly armoured than say Mustang.

The Zero only got that range on such a weak engine by using ultra lean modes and cruising very slowly this could work well over ocean but not over Europe as they would be very vulnerable to being attacked its also not go the altitude for European combat or even always carried all the nice toys like radios....

 

[sdgottsch]

Hmm, yes, but the same was the truth 10 or 15 or 20 years before, but the Communists are still there. Now, Communists have support of the Soviet Union- because I don't think that Soviets would spend all that blood and treasure without getting something in return. Or, why replace hostile Japanese in Manchuria with ( potentially ) hostile Chinese in Manchuria?

Completely agree with you. Just saying (me not being eloquent) that this issue could be continued on in the story and boy would it be doozy when you add in the US supporting the Nationalists vs. the Soviet backed Mao forces. This would be a bigger issue than the Korean War that would eventually influence Indochina.

 

[General Ripper]

Completely agree with you. Just saying (me not being eloquent) that this issue could be continued on in the story and boy would it be doozy when you add in the US supporting the Nationalists vs. the Soviet backed Mao forces. This would be a bigger issue than the Korean War that would eventually influence Indochina.

Agreed, that would be a nice story, but before that, we need to solve a few potential troubles:

1) Korea after the war, united/independent, divided, Communist?

2) China- divided between KMT and CCP in Manchuria, or continued Civil War or?

3) Government of Japan after the war? Civil or Navy-dominated?

So, your opinions please...

 

[sdgottsch]

1) Based on the original input with Japan accepting independence for Korea, with both Soviet and Japanese forces withdrawn within next 3 months. My thought is Soviets will do the same thing as they did in late 40's and "influence" the Korean leadership. Kim Il Sung is still available to run Korea but as a communist vassal to Russia.
2) Regarding China, I really do have faith the KMT will at least hold out in the South & East up to the Shandong portion of the mainland (since the Soviets had secured above that area and Mao was West to Shanxi). No matter how much the Soviets supply Mao, I think it won't be enough for either side to win the Civil War outright. Plus, Mrs. Kai-shek seemed to have the Roosevelt's ear and the USA was enticed to keep funding them. This would lead to another form of the Cold War.
3) Manchuria is a whole different matter. Would bet the farm Russia will take it from the Chinese while the Civil War continues. In fact, I bet the Soviets would enjoy seeing the Chinese factions continue to fight and wear themselves down. The Russians have always been worried about China (you can read it in the Mannerheim travels he did through China while he was a Czarist officer).
4) Wow, Japan is a wild card. I don't see the IJN leadership (and their junior officers) as fascist and "crazy" as the Army. I do believe the Emperor will have to step in and put civil leadership in charge. But if the Meiji Constitution is maintained, then civilian control will continue to be challenged by the military. You've got to wonder if the "Fleet Faction" was killed off during the war, if so, then there really isn't a naval philosophy left since the "Treaty Faction" have retired a decade ago or died.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I wonder how long it would take to develop a viable jet engine out of a intact Japanese industry? What about the next generation of ships power plants, radar, & eventually nuclear power plants?

- Japan had to give back to China everything in the Mainland ( including the Hainan island ). China has promised not to militarise Shandong and Hainan area and allow for free trade with Japan. Japan managed to gain northern part of Sakhalin, but had to accept independence for Korea, with both Soviet and Japanese forces withdrawn within next 3 months. Korea accepted to have Jejo island demilitarised and to have free trade with Japan. By making that concessions, Japan managed to awoid paying reparations to China and Soviet Union.

After rereading this from the OP I'm wondering if Japan can afford more than a coast guard for the remainder of the 20th Century. Losing Korea, Manchuria, and presumably Formosa strips away a half century of Japanese investment & a significant portion of its industrial base. This is going to be economically catastrophic & leave Japan unable to pay for a world class navy.

 

[trurle]

I wonder how long it would take to develop a viable jet engine out of a intact Japanese industry? What about the next generation of ships power plants, radar, & eventually nuclear power plants?
After rereading this from the OP I'm wondering if Japan can afford more than a coast guard for the remainder of the 20th Century. Losing Korea, Manchuria, and presumably Formosa strips away a half century of Japanese investment & a significant portion of its industrial base. This is going to be economically catastrophic & leave Japan unable to pay for a world class navy.

I do not see in the OP anything what suggest the loss of Taiwan (Formosa) - the second largest Japanese investment after Korea. The loss of factories of Korea and Manchuria will be serious, but not devastating. Especially for Manchuria industries which had no time to be developed. The biggest problem of Japan post-war would be actually archaic institutions, not the loss of colonies. With less devastating end of war, Zaibatsu industrial/financial system is likely to survive relatively intact and will arrest any tendencies for the rapid economic growth. In this scenario, i forecast for Japan massive economic troubles trying to keep even WWII vessels maintained, growing obsolescence of IJN, political instability and finally a sort of anti-imperial revolution. The R&D will constantly ran into trouble due to unending brain-drain (which has started in Japan well before WWII). Therefore, Japanese will likely get a working jet engine several years after leading nations, and their jets would be consistently under-performing (think of the sort of problem with the R&D the Chinese got due "Cultural revolution", albeit likely on the smaller scale).

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The industrial plant in the colonies was in mineral extraction. Japan had little in raw materials & without that from the mainland it is screwed.

Japans effort to build a empire was a effort to avoid becoming a second tier client state to a European nation, the US, or eventually China. The only route for that visible in the context of the early to mid 20th Century was imperialism. In this scenario I see Japan either returning to a relationship with Britain, or becoming a US client state as it did post war.

I suspect the likely development after this mainland debacle is a major change in government & policy. That could include replacing the aging navy in the 1950s with something new. Perhaps like so many others Japans leaders would commit to air power & a new generation of long range aircraft would be built as replacements for a capitol ship fleet.

 

[General Ripper]

You are forgetting that Japan had a world class navy before Korea or Manchuria.

 

[General Ripper]

Don't see why would remaining zaibatsus ne problem for economic growth? After all, they were dismantled only partially and later mostly reunited IIRC.

 

[Guaro]

i simply don't see how the 1939 Red army could possibly pool out a Manchurian invasion that can force Japan to renounce to all mainland China in less than 2 years, also china able to go full on attack in 1939 beginning of 1940 is a dream, they were able to defeat the Japanese on defensive position while the Japanese attacked at the end of their supply line, and only a single major battle was lunched and lost by the IJA before khalin gol, so if the incident escalate all the Japanese attack on Chinese soil will put on hold and all their material and best division will be moved north, so IMHO is literally impossible for the Soviet and the Chinese to expel the Japanese from China in less than 2 years. We have already had at least 3 treads about IJA vs Red Army in the East in 1939, and all the "expert" , also the Soviet fun boys, acknowledged that the Soviet were literally stripped ultra thin on the supply line, they need to use ALL the motorized pool from the transbaikal and far east front and a also a lot of track from the European theater to "win" on the Manchurian border, and they got bleed by the IJA, the Red Amry in 1939 is not even comparable to the red army of the 1945, they have no logistics, very poor officer pool and are full of NKVD, the more you get away from the transsiberian railways ( single track ) the more the need of truck increase, so honestly speaking this TL has a huge problem regarding soviet capabilities, in 1939/1940 the soviet have not enough trucks to pull out invasion not vs a an entranced IJA that the more they get back the nearer they get to supply line. also the more the Chinese get close to the Soviet the less happy the West will be, so they can expect less help... at this moment also the Japanese are not embargoed and they can still trade. in this TL if you have a declaration of war between the soviets and the Japanese on the 15 of august, you are also going to have the German extracting way more concession from the Soviet and so on, and at the start of Barbarossa you are going to have literally west Russia way more stripped and defenseless...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

You are forgetting that Japan had a world class navy before Korea or Manchuria.

It was a regional navy, and its power was relative to significantly weaker opposition. Japans economic exploitation of Korea & the Asian mainland extended back into the 19th Century. This was financed by Britain & to a lesser extent other Europeans who found advantages in Japan countering & weakening Chia and Russian activity.

 

[General Ripper]

i simply don't see how the 1939 Red army could possibly pool out a Manchurian invasion that can force Japan to renounce to all mainland China in less than 2 years, also china able to go full on attack in 1939 beginning of 1940 is a dream, they were able to defeat the Japanese on defensive position while the Japanese attacked at the end of their supply line, and only a single major battle was lunched and lost by the IJA before khalin gol, so if the incident escalate all the Japanese attack on Chinese soil will put on hold and all their material and best division will be moved north, so IMHO is literally impossible for the Soviet and the Chinese to expel the Japanese from China in less than 2 years. We have already had at least 3 treads about IJA vs Red Army in the East in 1939, and all the "expert" , also the Soviet fun boys, acknowledged that the Soviet were literally stripped ultra thin on the supply line, they need to use ALL the motorized pool from the transbaikal and far east front and a also a lot of track from the European theater to "win" on the Manchurian border, and they got bleed by the IJA, the Red Amry in 1939 is not even comparable to the red army of the 1945, they have no logistics, very poor officer pool and are full of NKVD, the more you get away from the transsiberian railways ( single track ) the more the need of truck increase, so honestly speaking this TL has a huge problem regarding soviet capabilities, in 1939/1940 the soviet have not enough trucks to pull out invasion not vs a an entranced IJA that the more they get back the nearer they get to supply line. also the more the Chinese get close to the Soviet the less happy the West will be, so they can expect less help... at this moment also the Japanese are not embargoed and they can still trade. in this TL if you have a declaration of war between the soviets and the Japanese on the 15 of august, you are also going to have the German extracting way more concession from the Soviet and so on, and at the start of Barbarossa you are going to have literally west Russia way more stripped and defenseless...

The thing is: Japanese invasion of China was streched pretty thin ( take in account how many free divisions Japanese had for their southern operation in 1941 ), with allmost no reserves and could work only in case if evereything goes as planned and nobody else interfears. Of course that China alone could not defeat the Japanese, but when you have half of Japanese army in China pulled back, because they are needed to stop the Soviets in Manchuria, than even Chinese Army can do something. Not something very big, but they can keep the pressure on Japanese and force them to choose between China and Manchuria. Also, as you can see, Soviets do have Chinese Eastern Railway that bisects Manchuria for supply. They also had a branch of TSR from Borzya to Choibalsan in Mongolia to support the western part.

Also, don't forget I never said that Soviets defeated the Japanese in 15 days like in 1945. It took about a year of hard fighting to accomplish not so good results as in 1945 ( loss of Sakhalin, 2/3 of Korea still in Japanese hands, Port Arthur still resisting ). Nobody said that Red Army will not bleed to take that. Japanese will surely fight ferociously and use evereything they have and don't have to avoid defeat.

 

[General Ripper]

It was a regional navy, and its power was relative to significantly weaker opposition. Japans economic exploitation of Korea & the Asian mainland extended back into the 19th Century. This was financed by Britain & to a lesser extent other Europeans who found advantages in Japan countering & weakening Chia and Russian activity.

Well, good enough against the Chinese and Russians ( third fleet in the world at the time ). Not as good/strong like the RN ( and maybe not even USN in 19th century ), maybe not even the French- but not so bad. Also, do you think that the West will love the Soviets or Chinese getting too strong?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Like I wrote Japan may revert to a British client state, or align with the US. Either of those would be uncomfortable with a Soviet expansion of power in Asia.

A more powerful KMT prevents the Brits from continuing it's lucrative concessions in China. Those will fade as a new market structure emerges in China. The US would have less problem with this as it was prepared for greater flexibility.

 

[Guaro]

The thing is: Japanese invasion of China was streched pretty thin ( take in account how many free divisions Japanese had for their southern operation in 1941 ), with allmost no reserves and could work only in case if evereything goes as planned and nobody else interfears. Of course that China alone could not defeat the Japanese, but when you have half of Japanese army in China pulled back, because they are needed to stop the Soviets in Manchuria, than even Chinese Army can do something. Not something very big, but they can keep the pressure on Japanese and force them to choose between China and Manchuria. Also, as you can see, Soviets do have Chinese Eastern Railway that bisects Manchuria for supply. They also had a branch of TSR from Borzya to Choibalsan in Mongolia to support the western part.

Also, don't forget I never said that Soviets defeated the Japanese in 15 days like in 1945. It took about a year of hard fighting to accomplish not so good results as in 1945 ( loss of Sakhalin, 2/3 of Korea still in Japanese hands, Port Arthur still resisting ). Nobody said that Red Army will not bleed to take that. Japanese will surely fight ferociously and use evereything they have and don't have to avoid defeat.

you still you are ignoring the logistic situation of the far east theater of the soviet and HOW the soviet "won" the battle at Khalkhin Gol, they picked the best unit available on the whole transbaikal front, ALL the trucks from east the Ural and a part of the trucks from the european theaters, how the hell could have they mastered a full on invasion for 2 years without stripping all the west of trucks and logistic unite for keeping up the supply situation, the railway you nominated are single track and stops hundreds of Km from the front lines and have different gauge than the one on the Manchurian side so the soviets can't use them and need to rebuild them as they advance, still with behind a single track rail network, so sorry but i think that without the HUGE advance made by the red army in 4 years of war and HUGE number of trucks delivered by the US via lendlease i don't see how the soviet with the 1939 purged army can advance thousands of Km. and to ad something more we are still talking probably to an IJA getting on the defensive, and you know pretty well how good and how morale goes with the Japanese on the defensive, and how bad was the soviet morale in 1939, and getting back to the Chinese IOTL they won 3 big battles on the defensive in 1939, and only one was before the Soviet-Japanese clash, in 1940, when they got a shit load of help from the West they tryied to do a huge counteroffensive and failed against the IJA: Chang in 1939 is absolutely in no shape to mount up a huge attack, also in this TL the Japanese are going to scrap every single Naval building to get the steal to build equipment for the Army, and suicidal naval expansion and invasion of DEI will be put on hold for the craziness and the limited resources. the west fearing the possibility yo lose the Chinese to the Soviet will probably losen up the trade restriction and get more breathing room economically speaking. the best outcome is you have an entranced IJA who lost most of the norther Manchuria and some chunk of mainland China with the gain of Sakhalin but near no negotiating table asking the Japanese to retire from the Chinese mainland and Korea,the soviets are with their pants down at the start of barbarossa, and if Zhukov get a lead disease the Soviet are going to get fucked by the Nazi also because the Vladivostok LL route is closed. these are my 2 cents

 

[General Ripper]

you still you are ignoring the logistic situation of the far east theater of the soviet and HOW the soviet "won" the battle at Khalkhin Gol, they picked the best unit available on the whole transbaikal front, ALL the trucks from east the Ural and a part of the trucks from the european theaters, how the hell could have they mastered a full on invasion for 2 years without stripping all the west of trucks and logistic unite for keeping up the supply situation, the railway you nominated are single track and stops hundreds of Km from the front lines and have different gauge than the one on the Manchurian side so the soviets can't use them and need to rebuild them as they advance, still with behind a single track rail network, so sorry but i think that without the HUGE advance made by the red army in 4 years of war and HUGE number of trucks delivered by the US via lendlease i don't see how the soviet with the 1939 purged army can advance thousands of Km. and to ad something more we are still talking probably to an IJA getting on the defensive, and you know pretty well how good and how morale goes with the Japanese on the defensive, and how bad was the soviet morale in 1939, and getting back to the Chinese IOTL they won 3 big battles on the defensive in 1939, and only one was before the Soviet-Japanese clash, in 1940, when they got a shit load of help from the West they tryied to do a huge counteroffensive and failed against the IJA: Chang in 1939 is absolutely in no shape to mount up a huge attack, also in this TL the Japanese are going to scrap every single Naval building to get the steal to build equipment for the Army, and suicidal naval expansion and invasion of DEI will be put on hold for the craziness and the limited resources. the west fearing the possibility yo lose the Chinese to the Soviet will probably losen up the trade restriction and get more breathing room economically speaking. the best outcome is you have an entranced IJA who lost most of the norther Manchuria and some chunk of mainland China with the gain of Sakhalin but near no negotiating table asking the Japanese to retire from the Chinese mainland and Korea,the soviets are with their pants down at the start of barbarossa, and if Zhukov get a lead disease the Soviet are going to get fucked by the Nazi also because the Vladivostok LL route is closed. these are my 2 cents

Nobody said that it would be easy. But, converting railway back to Russian gauge isn't impossible, especially if you are in war and have lots of slave power, and Soviets did have that. Also, Japanese would destroy the tracks anyway, but Soviets will have to rebuild them as they go, anyway. That's the reason I said that they will need over a year to accomplish that. Also, why do you think that Chinese will not get any help from the West? About the trucks, youre using Khalkin Gol as example, but Khalkin Gol was actually the worst possible place to have a conflict for Soviets. It's at least 750-800 km away from nearest Soviet railhead at Chita. On the other hand, from Vladivostok it's 50 km to the Manchuria, from other places in Soviet Far East ( where TSR passes ) it's closer to Manchuria. And that's without construction/regauging of railways following the advance.

 

[Oldbill]

The armor on Japanese torpedo racks was around 1½ inches thick a 23mm cannon shell ,a common Soviet aircraft weapon by the end of the war, is getting through that. The long lance torpedo is fueled by pure oxygen, one spark and BOOM! the torpedos explode sinking a destroyer or seriously damaging a cruiser.

I believe this is very unlikely to occur. The 23mm Vya-23 could pierce 25mm (1"app.) at 400 meters at 0 degrees, ie, a vertical plate. You will never get that angle of strike firing from an aircraft. If you add an additional half inch of armor (roughly 12mm) then you are looking at around 37mm of armor. As per Wikipedia, some AFV armor could be defeated, if attacked from a 40 degree dive, but that armor wasn't 37mm thick.

 

[Oldbill]

I don't think the scenario works. For the Chinese, their armies, while large, are for the most part ill trained, ill equipped and poorly led. The KMT forces were the best of the lot, even so, they were starved of equipment when compared to the IJA. Co-ordination between KMT and non-KMT armies was poor, and the Japanese, if they so desire, could actually issue a DOW (which they didn't in OTL), and then legally blockade the Chinese coast, cutting the easiest route for Chinese resupply. The only other way for the Soviets to resupply the KMT was via the inland routes, which were quite long.
The Soviets will beat the IJA in Manchuria, but as Guaro stated above, there are logistical limits as to what the Soviets can ship in and how long it takes to do so. They will have to conduct a balancing act, with Stalin as the maestro, as to how much they are willing to send and how far to push, always remembering the Germans. Even with Chinese help, and the withdrawl from much of China of the IJA, taking all of Manchuria is a long process. The IJA had a long institutional memory of conflict with Russia, and don't underestimate them as they did after the early, easy victories in the Pacific against the Allies. Ergo, it seems ahistorical for an IJA General to defy orders from the Kwantung Army headquarters to withdraw from a territory or city, when the Soviets are coming from the north. The Kwantung Army was an entity all of its own, who took orders from Tokyo when it suited them. In this case, it suits them to do so. IMO they will pull back behind the "Great Wall" from northern China while conducting a fighting retreat from Manchuria. While this is going on, the Korean Border is being fortified. That was the OTL plan IIRC (Coox, "Nomonhon' I think) and that, in an absolute best case scenario for the Soviets, is where the lines of the war will end. Korea was THE reason for the first RJW, the prospect of an aggressive, expansive Russia pushed the insecure Japanese to act, Korea was described as "a knife at the heart of Japan". Russia's establishment of the Port Arthur naval base, the continued encroachment into Manchuria, then along the Korean/Manchurian, caused a feeling of encirclement for the Japanese. When it appeared Korea was next, they acted. This was the golden age of imperial expansion, and Japan had no desire to become one (even though they had already started on the road of Imperialism with the first Sino Japanese War) of the conquered. Korea had, by this time, been colonized for almost four decades. There were also plenty of Japanese in Manchuria, but Manchuria isnt the defensive bulwark Korea was viewed as.
In short, the Soviets would have to kill every single IJA soldier to get Korea.

One other point. The IJN conducting a bombardment of Vladivostok would be ill advised. Imperial Russia fortified it well, the Soviets continued and improved it. That would be a good scenario to game out, I don't think the losses the IJN will suffer will be worth the effort.