AHC: Failed Tonkin Campaign (1883-86)

[GauchoBadger]

Another question is, if they lose then, what stops them trying again later?

China, especially if Prince Gong returns from the war successfully and influences politics towards a reformist angle (though that would require weakening empress Cixi's position). Germany could also decide to contribute to China's military, seeing them as an useful (and, now, successfully tested) counterbalance to french and russian interests. Perhaps a sino-german approachment?

Avenge our fallen sons and what not. A properly prepared campaign against China would be devastating, and France would probably ask for more compensations. I doubt Vietnam could modernise much if France puts an embargo on it

Problem is, France cannot enforce an embargo if they, as you postulated before, decide to spend less on a navy.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

China, especially if Prince Gong returns from the war successfully and influences politics towards a reformist angle (though that would require weakening empress Cixi's position). Germany could also decide to contribute to China's military, seeing them as an useful (and, now, successfully tested) counterbalance to french and russian interests. Perhaps a sino-german approachment?

I'm picturing a conflict in TTL's early 20th Century between a Franco-Russian-Japanese Alliance against a Sino-Anglo-German-American one.

 

[GauchoBadger]

I'm picturing a conflict in TTL's early 20th Century between a Franco-Russian-Japanese Alliance against a Sino-Anglo-German-American one.

There's still the possibility that a revitalized Qing China could end up being seen as a strategical threat by London, especially towards India, Burma, Hong Kong, and british commercial interests in the Middle Kingdom.

 

[Echenberg]

The question (that I do not have the answer to) is how much the public cared versus how much the deputies cared.

Ohhh boy, deputies cared a *lot*. If you can read french:
http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bp...parlementaire deputeTonkin Tonkin?rk=257512;0
This is the transcript of the parliamentary record (Journal officiel de la République française, Débats parlementaires, Chambre des députés) for the March 30th, 1885. It really is one of the most dramatic parliamentary transcripts I've ever read, after the miscalculated telegram from one of the generals sent to France, demanding immediate reinforcement and supposedly precarious condition they were in (Lang Son Telegram), the Opportunist Republican government led by Jules Ferry collapsed on this day, with Jules Ferry's motion to increase the military credit for the War in Tonkin failed.

It includes juicy bits like Georges Périn, a supporter of Clemenceau, telling Ferry to "Don't keep on exploiting the honor of our flag! You’ve wrapped yourself in our flag for too long! Enough!" and Clemenceau accusing Ferry and his entire cabinet of high treason. Both extreme-left and right were against expansion in Tonkin for their own reason, and support was rather tenuous. If there was a real disaster, Qing could have definitely got away with significantly less concession to the French. On the election of 1885, I doubt it would have been enough to collapse Republican majority. It'd have impacted Opportunist Republicans, but I'm not sure if it votes would have gone to the right. I imagine it would have strengthened broad Radical-left and Radical-Socialists than monarchists. It'd certainly discourage further colonial expansion for quite awhile. Since OTL Tonkin affair already had such effects.

 

[Bad@logic]

Ohhh boy, deputies cared a *lot*. If you can read french:
http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6427233z.r=debats parlementaire deputeTonkin Tonkin?rk=257512;0
This is the transcript of the parliamentary record (Journal officiel de la République française, Débats parlementaires, Chambre des députés) for the March 30th, 1885. It really is one of the most dramatic parliamentary transcripts I've ever read, after the miscalculated telegram from one of the generals sent to France, demanding immediate reinforcement and supposedly precarious condition they were in (Lang Son Telegram), the Opportunist Republican government led by Jules Ferry collapsed on this day, with Jules Ferry's motion to increase the military credit for the War in Tonkin failed.

It includes juicy bits like Georges Périn, a supporter of Clemenceau, telling Ferry to "Don't keep on exploiting the honor of our flag! You’ve wrapped yourself in our flag for too long! Enough!" and Clemenceau accusing Ferry and his entire cabinet of high treason. Both extreme-left and right were against expansion in Tonkin for their own reason, and support was rather tenuous. If there was a real disaster, Qing could have definitely got away with significantly less concession to the French. On the election of 1885, I doubt it would have been enough to collapse Republican majority. It'd have impacted Opportunist Republicans, but I'm not sure if it votes would have gone to the right. I imagine it would have strengthened broad Radical-left and Radical-Socialists than monarchists. It'd certainly discourage further colonial expansion for quite awhile. Since OTL Tonkin affair already had such effects.

The February 18 1874 Reichstag protestations of Edourd Teutschis even more dramatic imo. He literally called the German annexation of Alsace-Lorraine a barbaric and illegal act unfitting to a civilized nation which reduced the Alsatians to slavery.... in the Reichstag, to all of the other deputies.

China, especially if Prince Gong returns from the war successfully and influences politics towards a reformist angle (though that would require weakening empress Cixi's position). Germany could also decide to contribute to China's military, seeing them as an useful (and, now, successfully tested) counterbalance to french and russian interests. Perhaps a sino-german approachment?

I'd argue that Germany getting involved on the Chinese side, unless if it is an ironclad alliance, is the thing most likely to make the French devote enough attention to China to actually make a second round viable. As noted previously in the thread, the French public didn't generally care that much about colonial activities. French colonial military men generally had very effective political links back to parliament which helped them lobby for their campaigns (the idea that they were separated from Metropolitan politics and did whatever they want is wrong or at the very least incomplete, instead they did whatever they want because they had cover groups in parliament to back them up), but a war which requires large-scale public support can't just rely on political lobbying. The exception to this lack of support was when there was a French rival involved in the affair : thus why the Siam crisis in 1893 and the Fashoda crisis elicited major popular interest. Both were of course against England, a colonialist direction requiring hostility to England, and some sort of détente with Germany, while a continental direction required the reverse.

In the event of Germany being perceived as the principal French rival in China, its actually a pretty useful way for the colonialist party to square the circle and get the continental faction aligned with an anti-China and pro-colonial policy. Their problem of being perceived as abandoning the lost provinces is gone, and they can portray themselves as the true guardians of France, fighting against the Germans from the blue line on the Vosges to the banks of the Red River.

Now, whether that is enough to defeat the Chinese in a round two, can be up for debate. Personally I have severe doubts about Qing dynasty modernization capacity, regardless of who is found at the top, given the structural limitations imposed on China and institutional factors.

 

[Tanc49]

Ohhh boy, deputies cared a *lot*. If you can read french:
http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k6427233z.r=debats parlementaire deputeTonkin Tonkin?rk=257512;0
This is the transcript of the parliamentary record (Journal officiel de la République française, Débats parlementaires, Chambre des députés) for the March 30th, 1885. It really is one of the most dramatic parliamentary transcripts I've ever read, after the miscalculated telegram from one of the generals sent to France, demanding immediate reinforcement and supposedly precarious condition they were in (Lang Son Telegram), the Opportunist Republican government led by Jules Ferry collapsed on this day, with Jules Ferry's motion to increase the military credit for the War in Tonkin failed.

It includes juicy bits like Georges Périn, a supporter of Clemenceau, telling Ferry to "Don't keep on exploiting the honor of our flag! You’ve wrapped yourself in our flag for too long! Enough!" and Clemenceau accusing Ferry and his entire cabinet of high treason. Both extreme-left and right were against expansion in Tonkin for their own reason, and support was rather tenuous. If there was a real disaster, Qing could have definitely got away with significantly less concession to the French. On the election of 1885, I doubt it would have been enough to collapse Republican majority. It'd have impacted Opportunist Republicans, but I'm not sure if it votes would have gone to the right. I imagine it would have strengthened broad Radical-left and Radical-Socialists than monarchists. It'd certainly discourage further colonial expansion for quite awhile. Since OTL Tonkin affair already had such effects.

I know about that bit, my question is, how much did the public actually know/cares about it

 

[Echenberg]

The February 18 1874 Reichstag protestations of Edourd Teutschis even more dramatic imo. He literally called the German annexation of Alsace-Lorraine a barbaric and illegal act unfitting to a civilized nation which reduced the Alsatians to slavery.... in the Reichstag, to all of the other deputies.

Ah but you see, this thing actually resulted in fall of the Jule Ferry’s government in a parliamentary system.

I know about that bit, my question is, how much did the public actually know/cares about it

Quite a bit, actually, War in Tonkin was widely reported in most newspapers with proto anti- and pro- colonial arguments being forged in political debates and editorials during this period. In terms of more wider public, Ferry was nearly killed by the mob while going to the Elysee palace to tender his resignation, so I think they cared somewhat.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@Bad@logic If warming Sino-German relations pushes Frahce to try and take the Tonkin Gulf again later, that could also be interesting in its own right; especially if it plays more of a role binding them to Russia. I'd also guess a second attempt, following a failed first one, would be less damaging to Qing reformists.

 

[Bad@logic]

Ah but you see, this thing actually resulted in fall of the Jule Ferry’s government in a parliamentary system.

So just like every other week in the French IIIrd Republic

 

[UCB79]

Forgive me if I've missed something but
wouldn't such a senario butterfly away the
French acquisition of Indo China? THAT
would certainly make for some interesting
changes! (Off the top of my head, one change I could see is Vietnam falling into
the hands of JAPAN)

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Forgive me if I've missed something but wouldn't such a scenario butterfly away the French acquisition of Indo China?

France already had extensive "influence" in Indchina, so losing more to the Qing doesn't necessarily mean they're kicked out entirely.

 

[UCB79]

France already had extensive "influence" in Indchina, so losing more to the Qing doesn't necessarily mean they're kicked out entirely.

Understood- but I'm just wondering here.
If they lost more to the Qing wouldn't
their position in Indo China be so weakened
that some other power would have been
able to come in & expel them? My candidate
for the country in question was of course
Japan but John if you have someone else in
mind let's hear it!

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@UCB79 Actually, I was picturing the French and Japanese (and Russians) forming an anti-Chinese alliance.

 

[UCB79]

@UCB79 Actually, I was picturing the French and Japanese (and Russians) forming an anti-Chinese alliance.

OK, gotcha.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bumping for interest because i found out about something... could a stronger Chinese sphere over Southeast Asia in the 1880's result in the survival of the Lanfang Republic in western Borneo?

 

[raharris1973]

Bumping for interest because i found out about something... could a stronger Chinese sphere over Southeast Asia in the 1880's result in the survival of the Lanfang Republic in western Borneo?

The timeline author would need to insert several intermediate steps still to make this, I believe, because Tonkin and Borneo are still quite far apart geographically.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I also wonder how this would affect other kingdoms in Southeast Asia, like those of Luang Phrabang (in OTL modern day Laos) or Siam.

 

[GauchoBadger]

I also wonder how this would affect other kingdoms in Southeast Asia, like those of Luang Phrabang (in OTL modern day Laos) or Siam.

IOTL, after they annexed Vietnam, the French moved westward into Siamese-controlled Laos and estabilished a new protectorate. If Vietnam is free from French influence, then Laos stays in Siam.