US-UK exchange the German territories in the Pacific for Hawaii. Trust begins to return but a Great Rapprochement is still a ways off. WWI begins and the UK enforces the blockade around Germany ramping tensions between the US and the UK back up. This time instead of meddling in the election UK wises up and realizes having the sleeping dragon on your good side isn't a bad thing and they bite the bullet and go to a closer blockade.(not full on steaming within sight of the coast close but within a 100 miles) US doesn't get every demand but is sated enough that rhetoric dies down and relations begin warming up once again.
WW1 ends with mutual exhaustion in the west while the Germans win in the east. A-L becomes a neutral free territory jointly administered by the Germans and French designed to prevent another war breaking out. In exchange for Belgium's freedom the Germans get the Congo and their colonies back but in exchange agree to the previously mentioned item regarding A-L. Balkans territory wise it ends up generally around the same as what you have in the actual TL. Italy by virtue of being on the "winning" side doesn't loose all that land however Vento and provinces bordering A-H become a demilitarized zone.
WW2 set-up is USSR + A-H + Spain VS Germany + France +Italy. UK Joins with Germany after it takes a surprise beating early in the war(balance of power and what not) while the US and Japan have their own war in the Pacific with the UK as a co-belligerent on the side of the US. US stays out of Europe again unless someone does something really fucking stupid.
