Hello everyone. I've been a long time lurker and I decided it was time to join. Like all of you, I enjoy history and what could have been. I like to make alternate maps in particular, and I'd like to share some with you over the coming weeks. Anyway... moving right along... for this exercise, I seek to create an alternate timeline where not only does the Imperial State of Iran survive and with more of Greater Iran intact, but becomes one of the 5 largest economies on the planet by present day. In order to do this, I'll of course need your help. I'm not particularly versed with central Asian history and politics, but I've always found Iran fascinating and often wonder what could have been had the 1979 Revolution either been killed or not gone down.
Starting during the Qajar dynasty and leading up to today, how can Imperial Iran survive as a state and with the borders as seen in my map? The map includes Bahrain, Baluchistan and Herat province (I accidentally included Badghis in the map). This should give Iran an area roughly 2,050,928 km2 and a population of 96,356,700 people (neither counting Badghis province).
I figure starting with Mohammad Shah Qajar, instead of fighting losing wars with the British over Herat, he could negotiate to cede Afghanistan to them minus Herat and begin the process of Westernizing after the wars with Russia. Wikipedia doesn't provide much information of Baluchistan, so I don't know how they can keep it, but for Bahrain, I figure that instead of the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, Iran would instead being more advanced due to earlier industrialization and Westernization be firmly in the allies camp and as reward for loyalty to the allies, they be gifted Bahrain like the Shah's originally wanted.
In this timeline, with no invasion, Mohammad Reza Shah, would secede his father upon his death in 1944. So no broken lineage, no Mohammad Mosaddegh coming to power and thus hand waving away Operation Ajax. This I feel would lessen the Shah's perception as being a Western puppet and thereby increasing his credibility among the Iranian people (not saying he still wouldn't have problems). Anyway, the Shah would go on his spending spree, but with a stronger, more diverse economy from the get go. The Shah wanted Iran to become one of the 5 largest economies and military powers in the world. Hell by 1990 Iran would have already been the 3rd largest military power had the Shah gotten all his orders through. Below is a partial list of what he was looking for:
[Link]
Anyway, what do you guys think? Could you help me fill out the timeline? It would also be much appreciated if those when more detailed knowledge of Iran and the surrounding region could help me develop the economy of Iran for my timeline.
Starting during the Qajar dynasty and leading up to today, how can Imperial Iran survive as a state and with the borders as seen in my map? The map includes Bahrain, Baluchistan and Herat province (I accidentally included Badghis in the map). This should give Iran an area roughly 2,050,928 km2 and a population of 96,356,700 people (neither counting Badghis province).
I figure starting with Mohammad Shah Qajar, instead of fighting losing wars with the British over Herat, he could negotiate to cede Afghanistan to them minus Herat and begin the process of Westernizing after the wars with Russia. Wikipedia doesn't provide much information of Baluchistan, so I don't know how they can keep it, but for Bahrain, I figure that instead of the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, Iran would instead being more advanced due to earlier industrialization and Westernization be firmly in the allies camp and as reward for loyalty to the allies, they be gifted Bahrain like the Shah's originally wanted.
In this timeline, with no invasion, Mohammad Reza Shah, would secede his father upon his death in 1944. So no broken lineage, no Mohammad Mosaddegh coming to power and thus hand waving away Operation Ajax. This I feel would lessen the Shah's perception as being a Western puppet and thereby increasing his credibility among the Iranian people (not saying he still wouldn't have problems). Anyway, the Shah would go on his spending spree, but with a stronger, more diverse economy from the get go. The Shah wanted Iran to become one of the 5 largest economies and military powers in the world. Hell by 1990 Iran would have already been the 3rd largest military power had the Shah gotten all his orders through. Below is a partial list of what he was looking for:
[Link]
He was also looking to buy 10 C-5 Galaxies as well.By the time the 1970s came and Iran had the ninth largest economy on Earth, the Shah set about modernizing Iran's military. He did this through billions of dollars of some of the most sophisticated arms available. Iran's purchases included 79 F-14 Tomcat, 400 M60 Patton tanks, 354 McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II planes and Northrop F-5 fighting planes, hundreds of support and attack helicopters (Boeing CH-47 Chinook, Bell UH-1N Twin Huey, Mil Mi-8 and Mil Mi-17) 12 Lockheed P-3 Orion planes, 2 American destroyers, (USS Zellars and USS Stormes) and 4 Hengam landing craft. 1 British destroyer (HMS Sluys), 4 British frigates (Alvand class frigate), 8 Bayandor class corvette from the USA, 2 Gearing class destroyer, 8 light repair ships from Germany, 16 Osa class missile boat from the Soviet Union, 200 ZSU-23-4 artillery vehicles, 300 American Bell AH-1 SuperCobra helicopters, thousands of laser guided missiles, 500 M109 howitzer, 24 MQM-107 Streaker drones, 30000 TOW missiles as well as thousands of air to air missiles such as the AIM-54 Phoenix, AGM-65 Maverick and the AIM-9 Sidewinder. Iran had the largest fleet of hovercraft in the world and one of the worlds largest fleet of helicopters. Iran had ordered tens of thousands of missiles including M47 Dragon anti tank missiles, SS.12/AS.12 surface to air missiles MIM-23 Hawk anti aircraft, Sea Killer anti ship missiles, Mark 80, 82 and 83 bombs, Rapier anti-aircraft missiles and RIM-66B Standard-1MR SAM missiles, and Strela-2/SA-7 Grail SAM missiles. They ordered 1200 Chieftain tanks, (at the time the best in the world) from the British. Iran ordered large quantities of medium and heavy artillery ranging in the tens of thousands and to this day has the largest stockpile of these types of weapons in the Middle East. From Russia it ordered many transport trucks and 300 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers.
By the time that the revolution had come Iran was manufacturing in collaboration with the 50,000 Americans in Iran was manufacturing TOW missiles and Bell 204, Bell 205 and Bell 214 helicopters. Iran was also manufacturing with the help of the Soviets RPG-7, SA-7, and the BM-21 Grad. It had almost 500,000 soldiers in its rank and was ordering tens of billions in weapons. All of the arms deals listed below were cancelled following the revolution.
From the USA an incredible order for more than $15 billion in fighter jets were ordered 300 F-16 Fighting Falcons, 16 McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II RF-4E reconnaissance planes and a further 71 Grumman F-14 Tomcats on top of the 79 that had arrived. All of these orders were due in 1980. Other orders included, 250 McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet, 90 F-15 Eagles, 70 Fairchild A-10 attack bombers all of which were due by 1985.
By way of helicopters Iran had ordered a further 500 attack and transport helicopters in a $3 billion deal, in an attempt to add to its fleet of 700 attack and transport helicopters. These included the Boeing AH-64 Apache and Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk as well as further Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters. Several launch pads with very advanced radar systems were planned to be built.
A massive order was made by the Shah of Iran in an attempt to modernize the Iranian Imperial Navy. By 1980 the Iranian Navy was due to get 4 Kidd class destroyers equipped with Standard missiles, Harpoon missiles, Phalanx CIWS and Mark 46 torpedoes, 6 Spruance class destroyer equipped with ASROC launchers, Harpoon missiles, and Sea Sparrow missiles, 3 used Tang class submarine (not paid for, donated by US Navy) equipped with sub Harpoon missiles and several older landing crafts.By 1985 the navy was due to receive a further order including the 10 used Knox-class frigates equipped with Harpoon launchers, and Standard missiles and 2 new Tarawa class amphibious assault ships equipped with 2 Mark 45 guns, 4 Sea Sparrow Systems, capable of carrying 6 British Aerospace Sea Harrier and 20 Sikorsky CH-53 Sea Stallions. Also on this list were 2 new Ticonderoga class cruisers equipped with Harpoon missiles, RIM-7 missiles, ASROC and the Vertical Launching system and 2 Iwo Jima-class amphibious assault ships (not paid for, donated by US Navy) capable of carrying 25 helicopters. The USA and Iran had agreed a deal for Iran to purchase 9 used Belknap class cruisers equipped with Harpoon missiles, Standard missiles and an ASROC launcher. Large bases, hangars and ports were to be built to accommodate these purchases.
A order were placed for several types of tanks and armored personnel carriers such as the M551 Sheridan and the M113 armored personnel carrier equipped with TOW missiles. Iran placed an order for 10 new Boeing E-3 Sentry (AWACS), and when finding the USA reluctant to sell made it known that Britain was interested the Iranians their To refill their vast air force they had ordered 12 Boeing 707 tankers capable of refueling planes in midair. Iran had ordered tens of thousands of various missiles from the USA and Britain some which came but the majority never did.
A further 500 M109 howitzer's, 400 M60 Patton A3 tanks were ordered in a deal worth under 1 billion. 3000 trucks and 6000 Jeeps were being manufactured in Iran with the help of the USA were on their way to the front as well as a booming technological industry. The last known orders were for several planes full of light weapons and ammunition's.
The Iranians placed a $7 billion in ordering 2000 Challenger tanks from the British along with a further 300 Chieftain tanks and 250 FV101 Scorpion light tanks. A $3 billion order was placed for 3 Invincible class aircraft carrier able to carry 18 jets and 4 helicopters and the aircraft carrier's to be equipped with Sea Sparrow missiles and Goalkeeper CIWS. Included in this order were 6 Type 42 destroyer's equipped with Harpoon missiles, a Sea Dart missile system and Sea Wolf missiles. Along with this order were several minesweepers, patrol boats and further SR.N6 military hovercrafts. Iran also had contracted them for training, construction of bases and further development of Iranian made military products. After the USA, Britain was Iran's largest arms supplier. This trend would continue with many other countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
From the Dutch Iran, ordered 8 Kortenaer class frigate's equipped with Harpoon missiles, Sea Sparrow missiles, and Mark 46 torpedoes. Iran had ordered from the Germans 6 Type 206 submarine's and 6 Type 209 submarine's submarines to be equipped with sub Harpoon missiles and from the French 12 La Combattante IIa class fast attack craft's equipped with Exocet missiles, of which 2 arrived. From Japan 4 mine layers were ordered but only was delivered the Iran Ajr, which was subsequently captured by the USA in the Iran-Iraq war.
Most of the orders placed from Russia were lighter weaponry such as arms and trucks. They had placed an order for 6 anti submarine Grisha class corvette's, 400 ASU-85 anti tank guns, 400 BMP-1 light tank and storage facilities and a further 200 ZSU-23-4 artillery vehicles.
The Americans had actually started construction on missile sites to guard the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean which involved Iran buying missiles like the P-15 Termit from Russia, Exocet from Frnace, 9K115 Metis from Russia, MIM-104 Patriot from USA, and the Tomahawk (missile) from the USA. These missiles and their launch sites which were jointly built by the USA (80%) and the Europeans (20%) would make Iran capable of defending itself from any seaborne, land or airborne attack.
When the Americans turned down Iran's request under the Carter administration for nuclear capable missiles, they turned to the Israelis. They were working on the Project Flower ballistic missiles with Israel, and had already begun purchasing 1 billion worth of Iraeli light arms as well as expressing interest in an upgraded Mirage V, the IAI Kfir and the Gabriel (missile). Other orders included radars, and electromagnetic warfare technology.
Should the orders have been completed Iran would have been the undisputed superpower in the region and would have had the world's third most powerful military. At the same time Iran began construction on a few military bases including the Chah Bahar military complex. At this time Iran was purchasing over $20bn in nuclear stations, 8 locations would be built by the Americans, 6 by the Germans and 2 by the French, for its 36,000 MW nuclear project which could produce enough uranium each year for 700-800 warheads. By 1985 Iran had planned to stop ordering military equipment and would have been able to field one of the most powerful armies in the world.
Anyway, what do you guys think? Could you help me fill out the timeline? It would also be much appreciated if those when more detailed knowledge of Iran and the surrounding region could help me develop the economy of Iran for my timeline.