alternatehistory.com

If in 1911, it looked like this war was going to be a field day for the Entente Cordiale, then in 1914, the tides seemed to have turned. One major member of the Entente had already sued for peace and collapsed into a brutal civil war, and outside of a few assorted minors, the only two nations left in the alliance were France and Lithuania, and they were not doing too well. One was nearing an economic, political and military collapse, the other was besieged from all sides, but while the French were sticking to their guts and hoping to fight until the end, sweet or bitter, the Lithuanian morale was wavering. Even the ethnic Lithuanians, who didn't really have separatist aspirations to boot, were losing hope in the possibility of winning the war. The people hoped for the Emperor to show his wisdom and save the Empire before it is completely dismantled, but those hopes were not doing too well, either... That's not even talking about the Ruthenians and Russians, the former accepted the Grand Duchy of the Krajina with open arms and the latter, though disappointed with the Ruthenian nationalist creation that was the Krajina, were arming to take the fight to the surface.

While this was taking place, the Baltic-Adriatic Coalition saw an opportunity to break the stalemate that has been the Western Front for the last three years. French defenses in the Netherlands were getting weak, and with Britannia's entrance into the war, fresh British reserves and arriving Visegradian reinforcements bolstered the German troops enough that a real breakthrough no longer seemed infeasible. The assembled force of Germans, Hungarians, Bohemians, Poles, Brits and a small detachment of Swedes was sometimes affectionately called the Six-Nation Army, and it faced two French armies and one Dutch army in a series of battles for the control of Holland, the heartland of the Netherlands, and their main strategic objective being a foothold on the left bank of the Rhine. While the "Six-Nation Army" faced a number of problems, especially regarding language barriers and the problems with centralized command, they faced opponents that were arguably even more disorganized. The morale of the Dutch were high, they were fighting on home soil, but the French troops were mostly fresh recruits, as the experienced regulars were drawn away and sent to the meatgrinder that was the Mainz perimeter. What followed were some of the longest battles in the history of the Western Front, some taking up to four months to complete, mostly due to many mistakes being made by both sides, but in the end, the Coalition stood victorious. By November, German armies were landing on the Zeeland archipelago and drawing closer to the temporary capital of Antwerpen. A foothold on the left bank of the Rhine had been acquired. Spain also committed to a number of offensives around this time, which were moderately successful in that they allowed the nation to retake most of Roussillon and some of French Basque Country, but they came at a high cost, both in men and equipment.

The success of the Six-Nation Army reinvigorated the debate on intervention in the Great European War in Italy, which had been fanned during the last two years. The Italian Confederation may have been proclaimed "eternally neutral" in the 19th century, but both the Entente and the Coalition paid little attention to that fact and hoped to sway the republic into their side. If Italy joined either side, it would certainly have tipped the scales - after the beginning of the conflict, it mobilized under the idea of "armed neutrality" to keep it's independence secure, and by 1914, it boasted a strong and professional army, backed by one of the strongest lines of mountain fortifications across the whole planet. Red-wing politicians in the Italian Convention campaigned for a strike against France in order to acquire the Aosta Valley, Savoy and beyond, as well as give Italy a seat at the peace table, while the Republican Democrats, a pro-French party, pointed at Tyrol and Dalmatia and pushed their country to attack the Coalition. However, despite this shaking from both sides, the consensus in Italy remained strong - our nation is neutral and must remain that way, joining either side would not only be a hassle, but also cost thousands of deaths for little gain, and unless we are attacked, we must keep up our current stance.


Fortune followed the Coalition not just on the West, but also on the Eastern Front. Advancing Visegradian troops were quick to note that the morale among Lithuanian soldiers had fallen to a new low. Many of them, sometimes even entire units, would desert and surrender on contact, while the condition of the enemies remaining in the fight was very poor. This was the perfect situation for a major breakthrough, perhaps even a rush to Vilnius to knock Lithuania out of the fight completely, but the General Staff decided against blind attacks. Lithuania may be weak, but it was not yet defeated, and Visegradian advances in Ruthenia had created a massive salient that the enemy could exploit if it was extended further. In addition, the condition of the army of the United Kingdom was nothing to write home about, either, the three years had taken their toll. Instead, the Visegradians moved to strengthen their positions and advance only to take strategically important objectives. They reached the Dnieper and crossed it along it's mouth, while in the north, a number of offensives helped strengthen the perimeter around Kiev, enough for the Council of the Krajina to move there in August.

The Legion of Archangel Michael was officially disbanded in July of 1914 and most of it's leadership, including General Alexei Krutov, who was reported to have joined the Russian underground organizations in Lithuania along with followers, were declared persona non grata by the Visegradian government. The role of the Legion was replaced by the Army of the Grand Duchy of the Krajina, a regular military of Visegrad's new puppet state. It saw it's baptism in fire in the Battle of Poltava, where 6 000 Krajina soldiers attacked superior Lithuanian positions on the left bank of the Dnieper. Despite initial successes, the Ruthenian military was defeated and the front was pushed back - though, at the same time, they brought 600 deserters from the Lithuanian army, wishing to serve for the new nation.

The General Staff was right to think that Lithuania was weakened, because it not only faced massive foreign, but also domestic problems. The economic collapse of the Empire was in full swing ever since last year, and it was followed by a rapid deterioration of social order. The establishment of the Grand Duchy of the Krajina strengthened ethnic strife across the nation. On one side, Ruthenian and Russian nationalists received a major boost to their cause, the myth of the Empire's invincibility was broken and independence finally appeared like something achievable. On the other side, radical Lithuanian nationalists blamed the "fifth column" that were the Russians and Ruthenians for the nation's defeats and sought revenge. Bread riots, strikes and demonstrations were now joined by open insurgencies and street fighting. Not just ethnic opposition was weakening the empire, either - many citizens of the nation were simply tired of war and put the blame on the Emperor and his government, which was fertile ground for the spread of Republican and Unitarian movements.

The Imperial government placed the blame for the brewing collapse of the nation not on themselves, but on the deficiencies of the Saugumas, and in September, Vincentas Jonas Čepukas ordered the Emperor to sack Radimir Krashensky, the Grand Marshal and thus the commander of the nation's law enforcement, replacing him with Simonas Petkevičius, Duke of Pasvalys, a reactionary nobleman from Aukštaitija. This proved to be a severely unpopular move and the first of two fatal mistakes made by the Council of Lords - Krashensky was held in high regard by the Slavic community and seen by many as their representative in the highest echelons of the government, and his removal brought that illusion crashing down like a deflated balloon. The second blunder arrived from military affairs, and that was the Pinsk Offensive. Once the fall of 1914 begun, the government of Lithuania determined that public morale could be kept afloat if they receive news of successes on the battlefield, and thus they hastily approved an offensive through the Pripyat to weaken Visegradian supply lines to Kiev and thus force them to abandon the city. This idea was staunchly opposed by Field Hetman Silvestras Žukauskas, and the disadvantages were obvious - for one, Lithuanians would be attacking through the largest swamp in Europe. Sure, some of it had been drained, but the terrible terrain and infrastructure could not be understated, and instead, the Field Hetman proposed an attack in East Prussia, which Visegrad had neglected ever since the success of Operation Egerfogo. However, Grand Hetman Jogaila Aukštaitis, who had considerably more clout throughout the Lithuanian government than Žukauskas, pushed the idea through, hoping to liberate Kiev on prestige value alone, and betting on the idea that the Visegradian defenses were weak in the region and thus an attack there would take them by surprise. It did not.

Much like Žukauskas predicted, the Pinsk Offensive turned out to be a crushing defeat, one of the worst in the entire war. The Lithuanian generals were attacking with poorly equipped and demoralized troops, their attacks through the marshes were so slow that Visegrad had enough time to bring sufficient reinforcements via rail, and tactical blunders during the offensive doomed any success it could have possibly had anyway. 80 000 Lithuanian soldiers died, 30 000 were taken prisoner and 45 000 more defected to the Army of the Krajina, while Visegrad only lost 34 000 men. Instead of cheering on to the victorious Imperial Army, the Lithuanians were greeted with news about one of their worst defeats in the entire war.


The last straws were broken.

The people were angry.

Heads will soon roll.

And now we come to October.

Lithuanian garrisons across Russia report mass outbreaks of violence and anti-Lithuanian resistance. After years of preparation, entire towns are being liberated by mass armed militias, flying the blue banner. Not just in the countryside, but also in large cities like Tver, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, the undermanned and underfunded Imperial soldiers stand no chance. These militiamen may not be organized under a single authority, yet, but they have one goal in mind...

The greatest horror of the Empire of Lithuania has risen, because now, if not only has to fight the Great European War, but also, the Russian War of Independence.