Greater Imperial Iran survives

[Setofan1]

Hello everyone. I've been a long time lurker and I decided it was time to join. Like all of you, I enjoy history and what could have been. I like to make alternate maps in particular, and I'd like to share some with you over the coming weeks. Anyway... moving right along... for this exercise, I seek to create an alternate timeline where not only does the Imperial State of Iran survive and with more of Greater Iran intact, but becomes one of the 5 largest economies on the planet by present day. In order to do this, I'll of course need your help. I'm not particularly versed with central Asian history and politics, but I've always found Iran fascinating and often wonder what could have been had the 1979 Revolution either been killed or not gone down.

Starting during the Qajar dynasty and leading up to today, how can Imperial Iran survive as a state and with the borders as seen in my map? The map includes Bahrain, Baluchistan and Herat province (I accidentally included Badghis in the map). This should give Iran an area roughly 2,050,928 km2 and a population of 96,356,700 people (neither counting Badghis province).

I figure starting with Mohammad Shah Qajar, instead of fighting losing wars with the British over Herat, he could negotiate to cede Afghanistan to them minus Herat and begin the process of Westernizing after the wars with Russia. Wikipedia doesn't provide much information of Baluchistan, so I don't know how they can keep it, but for Bahrain, I figure that instead of the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, Iran would instead being more advanced due to earlier industrialization and Westernization be firmly in the allies camp and as reward for loyalty to the allies, they be gifted Bahrain like the Shah's originally wanted.

In this timeline, with no invasion, Mohammad Reza Shah, would secede his father upon his death in 1944. So no broken lineage, no Mohammad Mosaddegh coming to power and thus hand waving away Operation Ajax. This I feel would lessen the Shah's perception as being a Western puppet and thereby increasing his credibility among the Iranian people (not saying he still wouldn't have problems). Anyway, the Shah would go on his spending spree, but with a stronger, more diverse economy from the get go. The Shah wanted Iran to become one of the 5 largest economies and military powers in the world. Hell by 1990 Iran would have already been the 3rd largest military power had the Shah gotten all his orders through. Below is a partial list of what he was looking for:

[Link]

By the time the 1970s came and Iran had the ninth largest economy on Earth, the Shah set about modernizing Iran's military. He did this through billions of dollars of some of the most sophisticated arms available. Iran's purchases included 79 F-14 Tomcat, 400 M60 Patton tanks, 354 McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II planes and Northrop F-5 fighting planes, hundreds of support and attack helicopters (Boeing CH-47 Chinook, Bell UH-1N Twin Huey, Mil Mi-8 and Mil Mi-17) 12 Lockheed P-3 Orion planes, 2 American destroyers, (USS Zellars and USS Stormes) and 4 Hengam landing craft. 1 British destroyer (HMS Sluys), 4 British frigates (Alvand class frigate), 8 Bayandor class corvette from the USA, 2 Gearing class destroyer, 8 light repair ships from Germany, 16 Osa class missile boat from the Soviet Union, 200 ZSU-23-4 artillery vehicles, 300 American Bell AH-1 SuperCobra helicopters, thousands of laser guided missiles, 500 M109 howitzer, 24 MQM-107 Streaker drones, 30000 TOW missiles as well as thousands of air to air missiles such as the AIM-54 Phoenix, AGM-65 Maverick and the AIM-9 Sidewinder. Iran had the largest fleet of hovercraft in the world and one of the worlds largest fleet of helicopters. Iran had ordered tens of thousands of missiles including M47 Dragon anti tank missiles, SS.12/AS.12 surface to air missiles MIM-23 Hawk anti aircraft, Sea Killer anti ship missiles, Mark 80, 82 and 83 bombs, Rapier anti-aircraft missiles and RIM-66B Standard-1MR SAM missiles, and Strela-2/SA-7 Grail SAM missiles. They ordered 1200 Chieftain tanks, (at the time the best in the world) from the British. Iran ordered large quantities of medium and heavy artillery ranging in the tens of thousands and to this day has the largest stockpile of these types of weapons in the Middle East. From Russia it ordered many transport trucks and 300 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers.

By the time that the revolution had come Iran was manufacturing in collaboration with the 50,000 Americans in Iran was manufacturing TOW missiles and Bell 204, Bell 205 and Bell 214 helicopters. Iran was also manufacturing with the help of the Soviets RPG-7, SA-7, and the BM-21 Grad. It had almost 500,000 soldiers in its rank and was ordering tens of billions in weapons. All of the arms deals listed below were cancelled following the revolution.

From the USA an incredible order for more than $15 billion in fighter jets were ordered 300 F-16 Fighting Falcons, 16 McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II RF-4E reconnaissance planes and a further 71 Grumman F-14 Tomcats on top of the 79 that had arrived. All of these orders were due in 1980. Other orders included, 250 McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet, 90 F-15 Eagles, 70 Fairchild A-10 attack bombers all of which were due by 1985.

By way of helicopters Iran had ordered a further 500 attack and transport helicopters in a $3 billion deal, in an attempt to add to its fleet of 700 attack and transport helicopters. These included the Boeing AH-64 Apache and Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk as well as further Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters. Several launch pads with very advanced radar systems were planned to be built.

A massive order was made by the Shah of Iran in an attempt to modernize the Iranian Imperial Navy. By 1980 the Iranian Navy was due to get 4 Kidd class destroyers equipped with Standard missiles, Harpoon missiles, Phalanx CIWS and Mark 46 torpedoes, 6 Spruance class destroyer equipped with ASROC launchers, Harpoon missiles, and Sea Sparrow missiles, 3 used Tang class submarine (not paid for, donated by US Navy) equipped with sub Harpoon missiles and several older landing crafts.By 1985 the navy was due to receive a further order including the 10 used Knox-class frigates equipped with Harpoon launchers, and Standard missiles and 2 new Tarawa class amphibious assault ships equipped with 2 Mark 45 guns, 4 Sea Sparrow Systems, capable of carrying 6 British Aerospace Sea Harrier and 20 Sikorsky CH-53 Sea Stallions. Also on this list were 2 new Ticonderoga class cruisers equipped with Harpoon missiles, RIM-7 missiles, ASROC and the Vertical Launching system and 2 Iwo Jima-class amphibious assault ships (not paid for, donated by US Navy) capable of carrying 25 helicopters. The USA and Iran had agreed a deal for Iran to purchase 9 used Belknap class cruisers equipped with Harpoon missiles, Standard missiles and an ASROC launcher. Large bases, hangars and ports were to be built to accommodate these purchases.

A order were placed for several types of tanks and armored personnel carriers such as the M551 Sheridan and the M113 armored personnel carrier equipped with TOW missiles. Iran placed an order for 10 new Boeing E-3 Sentry (AWACS), and when finding the USA reluctant to sell made it known that Britain was interested the Iranians their To refill their vast air force they had ordered 12 Boeing 707 tankers capable of refueling planes in midair. Iran had ordered tens of thousands of various missiles from the USA and Britain some which came but the majority never did.

A further 500 M109 howitzer's, 400 M60 Patton A3 tanks were ordered in a deal worth under 1 billion. 3000 trucks and 6000 Jeeps were being manufactured in Iran with the help of the USA were on their way to the front as well as a booming technological industry. The last known orders were for several planes full of light weapons and ammunition's.

The Iranians placed a $7 billion in ordering 2000 Challenger tanks from the British along with a further 300 Chieftain tanks and 250 FV101 Scorpion light tanks. A $3 billion order was placed for 3 Invincible class aircraft carrier able to carry 18 jets and 4 helicopters and the aircraft carrier's to be equipped with Sea Sparrow missiles and Goalkeeper CIWS. Included in this order were 6 Type 42 destroyer's equipped with Harpoon missiles, a Sea Dart missile system and Sea Wolf missiles. Along with this order were several minesweepers, patrol boats and further SR.N6 military hovercrafts. Iran also had contracted them for training, construction of bases and further development of Iranian made military products. After the USA, Britain was Iran's largest arms supplier. This trend would continue with many other countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

From the Dutch Iran, ordered 8 Kortenaer class frigate's equipped with Harpoon missiles, Sea Sparrow missiles, and Mark 46 torpedoes. Iran had ordered from the Germans 6 Type 206 submarine's and 6 Type 209 submarine's submarines to be equipped with sub Harpoon missiles and from the French 12 La Combattante IIa class fast attack craft's equipped with Exocet missiles, of which 2 arrived. From Japan 4 mine layers were ordered but only was delivered the Iran Ajr, which was subsequently captured by the USA in the Iran-Iraq war.

Most of the orders placed from Russia were lighter weaponry such as arms and trucks. They had placed an order for 6 anti submarine Grisha class corvette's, 400 ASU-85 anti tank guns, 400 BMP-1 light tank and storage facilities and a further 200 ZSU-23-4 artillery vehicles.

The Americans had actually started construction on missile sites to guard the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean which involved Iran buying missiles like the P-15 Termit from Russia, Exocet from Frnace, 9K115 Metis from Russia, MIM-104 Patriot from USA, and the Tomahawk (missile) from the USA. These missiles and their launch sites which were jointly built by the USA (80%) and the Europeans (20%) would make Iran capable of defending itself from any seaborne, land or airborne attack.

When the Americans turned down Iran's request under the Carter administration for nuclear capable missiles, they turned to the Israelis. They were working on the Project Flower ballistic missiles with Israel, and had already begun purchasing 1 billion worth of Iraeli light arms as well as expressing interest in an upgraded Mirage V, the IAI Kfir and the Gabriel (missile). Other orders included radars, and electromagnetic warfare technology.

Should the orders have been completed Iran would have been the undisputed superpower in the region and would have had the world's third most powerful military. At the same time Iran began construction on a few military bases including the Chah Bahar military complex. At this time Iran was purchasing over $20bn in nuclear stations, 8 locations would be built by the Americans, 6 by the Germans and 2 by the French, for its 36,000 MW nuclear project which could produce enough uranium each year for 700-800 warheads. By 1985 Iran had planned to stop ordering military equipment and would have been able to field one of the most powerful armies in the world.

He was also looking to buy 10 C-5 Galaxies as well.

Anyway, what do you guys think? Could you help me fill out the timeline? It would also be much appreciated if those when more detailed knowledge of Iran and the surrounding region could help me develop the economy of Iran for my timeline.

 

[Setofan1]

I am posting this to bump the topic up. Never the less I will be reading your intriguing post tomorrow and researching the POD for an undisclosed amount of time.

Thanks a bunch!

Anyway... a question to anyone who can help... I've been reading more about Baluchistan, and the Baloch people are an Iranian people, however Wikipedia's info on the region is confusing as shit. Even if Iran can hold onto Baluchistan, Oman still controls the port of Gwadar until 1958 when they sold the port to Pakistan. The Achaemenid Empire lost the region to Alexander the Great, which then fell to the Seleucid Empire who in turn lost it to the Maurya Empire around 303 BCE. They in turn lost the Makran to Umar in 643 AD and later the Khanate of Kalat. The region then fell to Omani control in 1783. So we're talking centuries of seemingly no direct Persian control. Would I have to go back to Nader Shah or earlier to gain control of the region or wait till the 20th century to reestablish Iranian control?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Why would the Pahlavi Dynasty rise if the Qajars are stronger and more Westernised in the 19th century? What about the Constitutional Revolution and how does that play out here? Because if Persia has a better 19th century, something like that will play out differently, and Persia won't end up practically divided between Russia and Britain as in OTL. If there's a Great War in Europe which the Ottoman Empire takes part in, what side will they enter on, since they obviously have claims against Russia.

Thanks a bunch!

Anyway... a question to anyone who can help... I've been reading more about Baluchistan, and the Baloch people are an Iranian people, however Wikipedia's info on the region is confusing as shit. Even if Iran can hold onto Baluchistan, Oman still controls the port of Gwadar until 1958 when they sold the port to Pakistan. The Achaemenid Empire lost the region to Alexander the Great, which then fell to the Seleucid Empire who in turn lost it to the Maurya Empire around 303 BCE. They in turn lost the Makran to Umar in 643 AD and later the Khanate of Kalat. The region then fell to Omani control in 1783. So we're talking centuries of seemingly no direct Persian control. Would I have to go back to Nader Shah or earlier to gain control of the region or wait till the 20th century to reestablish Iranian control?

Oman is a non-entity by the mid-19th century. Or not quite one, but it isn't like Iran can't get the port of Gwadar in some other way. Like buying it. Oman was poor until the 1970s and could be convinced to part with it pretty easily.

 

[Setofan1]

Why would the Pahlavi Dynasty rise if the Qajars are stronger and more Westernised in the 19th century? What about the Constitutional Revolution and how does that play out here? Because if Persia has a better 19th century, something like that will play out differently, and Persia won't end up practically divided between Russia and Britain as in OTL. If there's a Great War in Europe which the Ottoman Empire takes part in, what side will they enter on, since they obviously have claims against Russia.



Oman is a non-entity by the mid-19th century. Or not quite one, but it isn't like Iran can't get the port of Gwadar in some other way. Like buying it. Oman was poor until the 1970s and could be convinced to part with it pretty easily.

Thanks for the reply.

*Total edit*

As for your question... Iran would fight in World War I against the Ottoman Empire, and later aide the British Empire directly in the Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War both to fight for it's allies and in an attempt to recapture territory lost to the Russians in the 19th century. Persia would invade the Ottoman Empire at the start on October 29, 1914 backed by both the British and Russian Empires. I don't know enough about the Ottoman Empire and the Middle-Eastern theatre to know how well they would be able to respond to the Iranian threat, especially if they were stronger then IRL. Later Iran would intervene in Russia to acquire territory lost where they would be bogged down in the mountainous Caucasus region. This would in turn make the intervention in Russia more bloody then IRL. Eventually Persia and the British could be pushed back or perhaps cut away Azerbaijan maybe?

During the two wars, Reza Khan Pahlavi would distinguish himself as a hero of Persia. He had made a name for himself with the Persian Cossack Brigade IRL, so it's not too much of a leap for him to come out of the conflicts looking every bit a national hero. Perhaps he could even be so gallant enough to be awarded the Victoria Cross by the British for his heroics. Several British Indians such as Mir Dast and even a few Americans were awarded it during WW1, so I don't think it's too much a stretch. During this time, Persia's economy would suffer under the strain of two great conflicts. Ahmad Shah Qajar would show off his inept leadership and with the economy in bad shape, the people could end up sick of continuous war and loss of living standards. This would leave the door open for the 1921 coup to still go off.

The British being keen on their ally Persia remaining strong in the face of a Bolshevik Russia and a chaotic Middle East following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, would work to see Reza Khan install himself as the new Shah sooner then 1925 and bring order to chaos. Of course that now brings up the issue of the Iranian people possibly seeing the Pahlavi dynasty as Western puppets again... shit. However, given the above many of the people may welcome the coup. It would certainly help if Reza Khan was viewed as a hero by the Iranian populace prior to the coup.

Also thanks for helping to clarify the situation with Gwadar. After all if Iran controls Baluchistan, it makes no sense for them not to control Gwadar, especially if Iran is to rise up as major power in the Indian Ocean.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

The problem with Iran lies in two places.

The first is that by 19th Century Iranian power and influence is contracting and that power is shifting towards Russia and the British Empire. This is why the great game came about, both countries wanted to turn Iran into a colony but they did not want to because they wanted all benefits and none of the disadvantages of that colony. So they both fiddled it through influence for Iran to sell it self out by westernizing, which they wanted and knew via technology from first world countries in the first place. (Double edged sword) However, once the Iranians sold their country to meddling powers they could never get it back when they actually westernized and were held to ransom by the great powers. (Now you know why they hate so us much.)

The second problem is Mohammad Shah Qajar, in that I don't know what is childhood was like, which is where men are truly created. In the mind. Depending on his upbringing, you can fiddle it to bring about a different outcome.

Naturally, however, there is an irreversible third problem to solve and that is the geopolitics of Iran as a Country. If you look at a map she has countries around her from all sides apart from the Persian Gulf but the Arabian Penninsula encroaches her entry to the open sea. Two minimal strategic war goals to break part of this problem would be to own the Caucasus Mountains as a natural border between it and Russia in which armies cannot pass and to get access to the Black Sea. The second would be to colonize and keep the present state of Djibouti as an outpost to the world.

An expansion of these minimal requirements and to buffer Iran and its enemies, she should seek out other barriers. The annexation of the Turkmenistan area and the whole of Iraq (which would include Kuwait) provide desserts to her west (southern-western and western Iraq) and North-eastern flank which would greatly hinder any invasion. As a result, what is now Kuwait city (and Bahrain) would greatly strengthen the Iranians hand in the Arabian Gulf.

Your inclusion of Balochistan province is good because it is rough and harsh terrain and again acts a buffer between Iran and British India. Plus the ports relieve the strain on the Persian Gulf as the ports are at the entrance.

The only problem is Afghanistan. Afghanistan is the "Graveyard of empires" in that the British invaded three times (1839, 78 and 1919), the soviets in 1979, Americans in 2001 and here we have Mohammad Shah Qajar failing to take Merat province. Whereas Afghanistan should be part of Greater Iran I think it will be the pinnacle and last stage of the puzzle because of the type of and harsh warfare that needs be conducted to win. (if that's possible)

This is what Iranians currently think is Greater Iran. Much of what I said but I made adjustments of Strategic warfare and economic reasons.

The really big question is when are they going to get conquer these lands. If Iran by 1914 was a great power and Ottomans side with the allies, you would think she would obviously side the Triple Alliance and if she successfully conquers these lands and Triple Alliance wins or loses. (Make a separate peace with ottomans and takes part in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk) Shed gain Iraq, (including Kuwait) the Caucasus Mountains and Turkmenistan whilst she already has the Balochistan province.

Now that I have outlined what the Iranian goals should be up until 1920, this must be set in motion by Abbas Mirza (who died) or Mohammad Shah Qajar who succeed him to the throne. First, however, I am going outline what Iran will face in the inter war years, WWII and the cold war.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

In this post I am carrying on but I have included what type of war Iran would have been fighting against Russia during WWI and after, in invading and defending the same ground.

Post world war I will be intriguing, tense and dark time for this Iran because of one country. USSR. After WWI she set about recovering what territory she lost and losing the Caucasus Mountains and Turkmenistan will be a thorn in her side and it will be a war they will provoke and relish. If Iran gains the Caucasus Mountains and Turkmenistan she must put the terrain to immediate use and in the form of defensive hard stubborn guerrilla warfare. If I were Iran I would put all military efforts into the Caucasus Mountains and Turkmenistan. It is intriguing to point out that Iran would have to do fight with Russia on the same ground as the Ottomans did.

The Ottoman third army in WWI lost 86% of its army in four weeks at Kars because of the inhospitable rugged mountainous terrain with temperatures as severe as -20c which cause Frostbite. Kars is not even the Caucasus Mountains and this is what you get.

The method to invade the Caucasus Mountains:

Thankfully Iran has the Caspian sea, and because of this she should push all her armies extremely fast to Baku and then to mid-Caucasus (present-day Staroterechnoye) where a collection (between five and eight) armies should push west all the way to the Black sea. The point of having a collection of armies is that Russia would punch holes from the north and south of the armies making their route westward. The only disadvantage of this is if the Russia react quickly enough when the Iranians are pushing up the right side of the Caspian sea, and redirect their armies accordingly the armies could buckle under Russian armies. This is why it must be quick. (Blitzkrieg) In hindsight the Russian Military at this time is incompetent.

At the same time, a mass of armies should sweep the Russian Caucasus Mountains in careful and orderly fashion from Kapan to Sochi. All armies should stop during winter time and should only move in late spring, summer and early autumn.

The method in defending the Caucasus Mountains:

The mountainous terrain will make it difficult to invade and the more the armies force through the more men the Soviets will lose via Iranian defensive positions and if and when they do occupy part of Iranian Caucasus, guerrilla warfare should be used. This will dog down Soviet armies. A war of this nature, considering the time period and circumstances would last between three to five years. This war along with all the other wars Soviet Russia was fighting at the same will have a cumulative effect on when they seek peace and the number of lives lost taken will be a lot. The winter season will provide an intermedium for the Iranians to rest, pound the enemy with artillery, repair defensive positions and replenish soldiers. The west and east of the Caucasus Mountains are the weak points because it is flat, therefore at Sochi and Makhachkala should have between two and three armies placed there.

Turkmenistan climate: Summers are long (from May through September), hot, and dry, while winters generally are mild and dry

The method in invading the Turkmenistan area:

Due to the climate, Turkmenistan should be the attacked when the climate is mild and dry in August to January. The supply lines are short which is good but they cannot be broken especially in the summer because the heat of over 40 C will kill the soldiers from dehydration and the exhaustion of war.

The method in defending the Turkmenistan area:

The supply lines are more important in defending this area because of the heat in the long summers. The summer provides long periods of time for intermedium which only gives a narrow space of time to conduct war. This puts pressure on which side should act first and therefore should make any person cautious but divisive when required. However, the usual stuff is required for defending this area which hard stubborn defensive warfare and lots of men to fight it.

The invasion of present-day Iraq:

The Iranian invasion of Ottoman Iraq will mainly be through the far south next to present-day Kuwait. It will not be through the far North because of the mediocre Kurdish mountainous region which will slow the troops. Going through the south leads directly to Bagdad through the flat terrain. Once the Iranians have occupied where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers run through mid-Iraq. Iran can start moving north and North East. Western and southwestern Iraq cannot be occupied because it is just desert, whilst in the south, the Iranians will drive all the way to Kuwait City.

Whilst the Caucasus mountains, the deserts of Turkmenistan and Iraq protect Iran, it is Mesopotamia, which is one of the most fertile lands in the world which will make it a world power. (Along with the port of Kuwait city)

Post World War I:

Assuming Iran wins this war she must set about in having the capability to fight the Soviets again sometime in the late 1930s which will be around ten years. It is during this time that Iran does not crumble to complete renewed Soviet invasion.

Iran after WWI with Russians and then other WWI with the USSR, I could imagine that she on the verge of collapse with the potential of seven to nine years of constant warfare.

The USSR threat will force her to act, in that she will threaten to dominate the black sea, the entire Caucasus region, and the Caspian Sea. She will accomplish this plan by building and buying battleships and aircraft carriers.

The Persian Gulf and the Black Sea:

After WWI Britain scrapped a load of battleships because of the Washington Naval treaty. She could have bought any of the following with war reparations:

HMS Dreadnought
Bellerophon class: HMS Bellerophon, HMS Superb, and HMS Temeraire
St. Vincent class: HMS St. Vincent and HMS Collingwood
HMS Neptune
Colossus class: HMS Colossus and HMS Hercules
Orion class: Orion, Monarch, Conqueror, and Thunderer
King George V class: HMS King George V and HMS Ajax
Iron Duke class: HMS Marlborough, Benbow, and Emperor of India
HMS Agincourt
HMS Erin
HMS Canada (Resold to the Chilean Navy)

13 of the battleships were scrapped between 1920 and 1922, the other battleships were scrapped in the mid-1920s to the early 1930s.

The Iranians would also get the advantage of buying a lot of battleships and then converting a quarter of them to aircraft carriers. This saves money building an entirely new aircraft carrier from scratch. Plus the Iranians might not have the technology, facilities along with the money to build battleships and aircraft carriers from scratch. In the case of a battleship you just need to do is it take it down to the hull, refigure it, put a flat surface on top and a tower. (It's a lot harder than I say it is) I would say that would take 5 years max given the technology, facilities, and money to refigure a battleship in the hands of Iran after WWI.

As for destroyers, Submarines and cruisers to assist them, if the Iranians have not got the technology by 1920s, the Iranians would probably only buy one of type because other countries would not take a liking to the UK arming a foreign power with an entire navy. With these examples, she could then design and building her own types.

The special case of the Caspian Sea:

In regards to dominating a sea that is not attached to rest of the world's oceans, I am afraid a navy is going to have to be built just for the Caspian Sea. Baku is the obvious place because of the potential to build shipping yards whereas Turkmenbashi is a good staging outpost seas opposite side.

The advantage Iran get by having Baku is its the only city port in the Caspian Sea, take Baku from the Russians and they don't have any other city part. The disadvantage is the Russians will make all efforts to bomb it by building runways and their eventual aim to reconquer it.

On the other hand, Iran can also build runways along with battleships and aircraft carriers. If she can dominate the north Caspian sea and its immediate surrounding area, she could send heavy bombers as far as Saratov.

World War II:

The British and Soviets invaded Iran because they could not take any chances, and they both viewed the then emperor to be on friendlier terms with the Axis than the Allies. This will be different dynasty and Iran will take a much bigger part on the world stage. In the circumstances, Iran could have taken the side of the Axis and the Allies. To aid Hitler conquer Stalin or to help Stalin conquer Hitler. If Iran is still neutral by 1942 and Case Blue goes ahead, Iran will have to make a decision. Hitler, Stalin, or continued neutrality.

Continued neutrality: Nothing changes in the short to medium term but Stalin and the USSR will not forget.

Wanting more:

Iran's aim at this point would be to have another strategic advantage in pursuing her casus belli claims against Turkey and just extend them to the Mediterranean. (city port of Mersin and Iskenderun) However, Turkey would only enter the war if Germany conquered the Caucasus, Germany would then be able to buy Turkey and Iran out in allying with them. This, however, contradicts the aim of gaining that Turkish territory and Iran would not gain the remaining Caucasus territory because the Germans will have it. Retrospectively Hitler would allow Iran to have Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and the southern part of Kyrgyzstan.

This one is cutting it really close if the then Iranian emperor is insane.

In this scenario, Iran has the intention to gain both territories from Turkey and that slice of Russian territory. First, the Iranians wait for the Germans to conquer the Caucasus and the Turkish side with the Germans but then Iranians invade both Turkey and German Occupied Russia.

It is very risky because Iran will have to wait until the Germans occupy it only to fight them and the Allies will not like it, not least Russia because they will be able to tell how Iran has engineered a situation to their advantage in one of the darkest periods of human history. In this circumstance, Iran will undoubtedly need a really good army.

The third-way outcome: Negotiating with the allies would entail an absolute guarantee that the Russsian territories Iran conquered in WWI would not cause further conflict. (However once Stalin dies no guarantee)

The allies will want a share of what Transcaucasia produces in exchange for what Mohammad Reza Pahlavi wanted to buy from the Americans in 1979 only in the 1940s.

Transcaucasia produces the following:

• Heavily industrialized and densely populated area
• Containing some of the largest oilfields in the world: Baku in 1942 produced 80% of Russia oil which is 24 million tons.
• Enormous amounts of coal and peat.
• Possessed nonferrous and rare metals - Manganese deposits at Chiaturi, formed the richest single source in the world, yielding 1.5 million tons of manganese ore annually, half of the Soviet Union's total production.
• The Kuban region of the Caucasus also produced large amounts of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, and sugar beets, all essential in the production of food.

In exchange for what for the Transcaucasia produces the Iranians will get an unlimited amount of handheld weaponry, tanks, self-propelled artillery, fighters, bombers and every piece of military hardware that they want from the USSR, UK, and the USA. If the Iranians don't agree then the Allies will just invade. (Obviously territorially Iran will not change.)

 

[Setofan1]

Thanks for sticking with this and double thanks for helping me flesh out the timeline.

I'm familiar with Greater Iran. So basically what you're advocating is an Iran that at least coming into the 1930's looks like this? In this map, they pushed into Dagestan but I left Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan with the Soviet Union. As for Afghanistan and Tajikistan, what about if they claim them in the aftermath of the Cold War when Iran invades Afghanistan to oust the Taliban after provocation (Iran wanted to invade Afghanistan IRL in the 90's) and Tajikistan asks to rejoin with Iran? Afghanistan I somehow just can't see being too much a problem given the close cultural and language links barring outsider influence of course.

As for earlier posts, I don't see the French letting Iran get a hold of Djibouti (though who's to say about present day since China just built a base there), but what's stopping Iran from making a vassal of Oman and Somaliland? Relations are close with Oman IRL and if Iran is the only country to recognize Somaliland, then it gives them stroke with them even if Somaliland is predominantly Sunni while Iran is secular/Shia. Double points if Iran actually works to build Somaliland into a respectable country. Also what about Pakistan? Iran was close to Pakistan in the Shah years IRL and was used to funnel weapons to Pakistan during the wars with India by President Nixon. In this timeline, Pakistan is still a decent size country but now with a thin middle as can be seen in the map. With Iran being much more powerful, surely they'll end up a satellite of Iran rather then China. Then again both would undoubtedly vie for influence in the country in more recent years, setting the stage for bad blood between Iran and China.

Post World War II, I see Iran rapidly industrializing; Perhaps in this timeline there is no Miracle on the Han River and Iran takes South Korea's place as an industrial and electronic powerhouse. Of course the Shah's would still have to tiptoe around the issue of oil as they did in real life. I'm currently reading The Oil Kings by Andrew Scott Copper and it's a fascinating and informative read. I certainly recommend it and it shows how despite the US being something of a sugar daddy for Iran, the Shah was nonetheless able to wield considerable influence over US politics. Still, even the Shah was careful not to vie for control of Iran's oil supply until the 1970's.

After the Mohamed Reza Shah's death in 1980, his son Reza Pahlavi ascends to the throne. As I understand it, he was kinder then his father. However while he recognizes the need for a softer hand, he nonetheless continues his fathers arms purchases. Saddam Hussein perceives this an an opportune time to strike, seeing Reza Shah Pahlavi II as weak and not wanting to wait for Iran to complete it's rearmament programs kicks off the Iran-Iraq War as IRL. Of course Iran being stronger and not having suffered from the purges of the Revolution and with US/NATO backing are much better able to fight back and Saddam and Iraqi Army quickly find themselves overwhelmed as the Iranian Army pushes onto Baghdad.

Whether the Iranian's accept an armistice or dispose Saddam and annex Iraq now I haven't decided. I'll need to think more on it.

TBC...

 

[Deleted member 92195]

(I know this is a Victoria II map but I could not find any other map however it serves its purpose.)

As for Iran, agree to disagree. This would be post World War I.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Post-1945 to Present

With the allies providing armaments and Iran taking advantage of the geographical situation she becomes a superpower and has an economic golden age in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and 80s. (especially from selling oil)

Next, I will be talking about Mohammad Shah Qajar and Abbas Mirza. I am also going to hopefully write a report on Iran above as country in the international world and how it would fare compared to all the others.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

This post attempts to go further in respects to paint a picture of the type of country that it would be and the only way to do that, is, pictures speak a thousand words. Enjoy.

Iran:

Armenia:

Azerbaijan:

Georgia:

Iraq:

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Kuwait:

Turkmenistan:

Caspian Sea:

 

[Arkenfolm]

Offtopic, but where is the source of all these economic maps? Is there a webpage which has most or all of these stored? I've seen them plenty of times here and elsewhere.

 

[Setofan1]

Thanks for the effort. I'm sorry I haven't replied to this thread in several weeks but it's going to be while before I reply again. I live in Sarasota, Florida and tomorrow we're expecting Category 4 or 5 winds and the accompanying storm surge, so I don't know if I'll even have a home in short order. Again thanks to all who contributed to this thread.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Thanks for the effort. I'm sorry I haven't replied to this thread in several weeks but it's going to be while before I reply again. I live in Sarasota, Florida and tomorrow we're expecting Category 4 or 5 winds and the accompanying storm surge, so I don't know if I'll even have a home in short order. Again thanks to all who contributed to this thread.

Dreadful, you will be in my thoughts and I wish you all the best. Regards.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Introduction and what history tells us

Researching both Abbas Mirza and his son Mohammad Mirza, from history it seems Abbas had the better chance to westernize Iran, however, chance itself was not on all his side and it literally broke him.

In the first Russo-Persian war he was militarily incompetent (ignored military advisors) and suffered the following defeats: Gyumri, Kalagiri, the Zagam River (1805), Karakapet (1806), Karababa (1808), Ganja (1809), Meghri, the Aras River, and Akhalkalaki (1810). His losing of this war lost Persia the following territory:

While at the same time his father was diplomatically incompetent, first siding with France when she could not provide Iran with substantial aid at the beginning of the war. The alliance with France eventually fell through and he then allied with the British.

Even though he lost a lot of Persian territory and soldiers Abbas Mirza reaction in hindsight is crucial because of the time period and where he got this type of thinking. Due to the sheer amount of losses he wanted to adopt the European style of war in Persia and this would be partly accomplished by sending students to European countries. A crucial influence on him was Selim III reforms and he also wanted to implement his own "Nizam-i Djedid" agenda, and reduce the Qajar dependence on tribal and provincial forces.

He built a printing press to reprint military books along with a gunpowder factory and a munitions depot, whilst his British advisors drilled his army which focused on the infantry and artillery.

In consequence of his reform agenda, it actually had an effect. In the Ottoman–Persian War (1821–1823) it was seen a Persian victory as they won battles and content in the terms of the treaty. Whilst in the Second Russo-Persian War (1826–1828) he managed to regain all of his lost territories. He lost against the Russians due to less to his and his armies skill and more to do with lack of reinforcements and overwhelming superiority in numbers. His downfall came when his health suffered and the defeat shattered his desire to reform the country.

“The problem”

What we have is a conundrum but I have no doubt that Abbas Mirza had the ability to turn Persia into a westernized power because of the change between 1813 and 1821. (8 years) No matter how much reform or military competency he had done after 1813, he was always going to lose because of Russia's sheer military size. Therefore Abbas must win the first Russo-Persian war.

“The solution”

In 1801 Abbas was twelve and ideally, he should have been sent to a military academy in Istanbul or Europe. The best would have been Ecole Militaire or West Point (it was set up in 1801). For this to happen you need a “life changing moment” in order for him idealise it so that he has the desire to become it.

The “life changing moment” is that he witnesses Napoleon and his army in battle at a distance. Coincidence that in 1799 Napoleon is at the siege of Acre (20 March – 21 May), if Napoleon can invade Cyprus to gain control of the eastern Mediterranean sea this would ease the supply route from France for war supplies and if he gets his supplies and men, Antioch should be within reach. (Beirut, Amman, Damascus, Homs and Aleppo would need to be also captured)

It has been discussed a lot about whether or not the Napoleon’s Egyptian and Syria campaign was viable to succeed but from my perspective, there is no need to march an army through Turkish mountains or even around the coastal edges where it is relatively flat but narrow. (This is what Alexander the Great did.)

If François-Paul Brueys d'Aigalliers (vice-admiral of the French at the battle of the Nile) returns quickly to France, Malta or Corfu as ordered by Napoleon because he believed the Alexandria harbour was too shallow and difficult to enter for his large warships. (He actually anchored at Aboukir Bay to await the British which is only 35km north.) In addition, if Napoleon succeeds in getting to Antioch he could ask for more ships, supplies, and men from the directive, for an amphibious landing on Gallipoli and then make his way to siege Istanbul.

The ordeal of capturing Selim

As Napoleon starts to besiege Istanbul, Selim flees by boat which is on the Black Sea. Napoleon aware of this needs to capture him to force a peace but cannot allow his ships through the Bosphorus Strait, until they control the passage, as the ships will be shredded by cannon fire.

With the possibility of losing the Sultan indefinitely with the possibility of two months’ worth of siege, Napoleon surrounds the city in the aim of finding a Turkish vessel (using Frenchmen) from the Black Sea side in attempt to capture the Sultan. (They find a frigate and pursue the Sultan)

The Sultan attempts to dock on the North Anatolia coast line only to see the frigate behind and the closer he gets to the coastline the closer the frigate gets to him (see image below) only to find that he must abort or face capture. The French then follow in hot pursuit all the way to Batumi. (A city in Georgia)

The sultan departs and continues his escape and with the Castle of Kars the only fortification around he rides towards it. (It’s around 285km) The French dock elsewhere and track him to Kars only to relay this to Napoleon.

Analysis on Napoleon’s amphibious landing:

This falls perfectly for where Abbas was in 1798/99/1800, (10 years old) he was given the region of present day Azerbaijan to govern. The Armenian Highlands and Azerbaijan are right next to each other.

The siege of Acre occurred from 20 March – 21 May, if Napoleon can be at Antioch around October and do his amphibious landing on Gallipoli in March of 1800 and siege Istanbul in April – May. He could then sail through the Black Sea with his fleet and army to Batumi, dock, unload and march to Kars.

My idea for Napoleon making the amphibious landing is logical because nine fortifications lie between Antioch and Istanbul. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Forts_in_Turkey) Five are at Mersin, one at Afyonkarahisar, Alanya, Ankara, Taurus Mountains, Muğla and six fortifications in Istanbul alone. However this website slightly differently and that there is a lot more: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_castles_in_Turkey) Who knows how many castles there were operational but we just know that there’s a lot.

With no Sultan to force a peace with he might have wanted to conquer the entire country but Napoleon would have been thinking about a number of fortifications, he would have to go through. With chaos brewing back home he realises he needs a quick peace to have Egypt up to Antioch and isn't winter so why not go into to Armenian Highlands and force a peace with the Sultan.

The battle and siege of Kars:

Seeking an alliance

Napoleon wins the battle and the siege and forces the Sultan for peace of keeping Egypt (up to Antioch). Whilst at Kars Napoleon decides to go to the Turkish-Persian border to seek an alliance. When Abbas hears of his request to meet the emperor, heir or ambassador, Abbas galvanized by the battle and siege wants to meet him first and is dumbstruck by his behaviour and personality.

Napoleon impressed by the boy’s attitude in what the boy observed, (investing in long term future ally) arranges in exchange for an alliance between the Emperor and himself to take Abbass to France with him, where he will study at the École Militaire. (Napoleon being very imposing, convinces the Emperor)

The journey to Paris

With a peace and the Directive demanding he return because of the chaos in France, the long journey to Marseille pursues. During this journey apart from Napoleon’s normal duties, he decides to teach Abbas the basics of French, Military science, naval science, French domestic politics, international politics, and geography. Napoleon would show Abbas around the flag ship first rate ship of the line and the surrounding fleet and he would see a demonstration of port power at Marseille.

Travelling through France he could not believe the endless adoring crowds throwing themselves at Napoleon. He starred at French soldiers on guard in the town city centres, the big hats and full-length white, blue and green dresses the women wore. Unknowing to him he observed a pre-industrial country, with few funnels fuming black smoke and Frenchmen farming the lands.

The École Militaire experience

With eight weeks of teaching by Napoleon they departed at Paris and Abbas was inducted into the École Militaire in 1801. (by Napoleon’s orders) Abbas was given his own room and was taught to groom himself whilst for clothes he wore a blue uniform with a red collar and cuffs. Meals were served on white table cloths and porcelain plates with silver knives and folks, they drank beverages and wine, and ate multi-course meals. At lunch he had: soup, porridge, two side dishes and deserts’, whilst at dinner, he had roasted meats, two vegetables, salad and deserts’.

All students got up at 6am with Mass, then class from 7am – 7pm. Classes with limited to 25, where they were taught math, history and geography, French, German, art of fortification, drawing, fencing and finally dance. They had half days on Thursday where they did equitation, shooting class and military drills, whilst on Sundays after mass they did religious studies and wrote letters to their families.

If there is a summer break between the first and second year, then this provides an opportunity for him to travel around a westernized country and observe everything it has to give.

Abbas would only spend two years in France where he would do his two-year course and would have to return to Persia and fight the Russians. However during these two years, Abbas is exposed to Napoleon’s liberal reforms: Liberalised property laws, ended seigneurial dues, abolished the guild of merchants and craftsmen to facilitate entrepreneurship, legalised divorce, closed the Jewish ghettos and made Jews equal to everyone else. The power of church courts and religious authority was sharply reduced and equality under the law was proclaimed for all men and most importantly after Abbas left he would go onto read the Napoleonic code.

Conclusion

When Abbas returns home he will be better equipped to fight the Russians which were actually good at the time. Whatever happens the time between first and second Russo-Persian war will give time for him to learn and prepare for the second inevitable war with Russia. Who knows what will happen by that point, but even if he loses his will and health won’t break and if he died at 70 that would be in 1858, with Persia westernizing about 1840.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

The knowledge he would be exposed to

In more detail Abbass would have been exposed to any of the following: (Military and Ordnance would be more prominent because he is in a military academy but with Napoleon’s personal teaching; who loved reading himself. École Militaire’s high education establishment which is supposed to encourage independent learning, along with living in liberal France would definitely have an effect on his learning, views and personality.)

1700s - 1800:

Early 1800s:

 

[XFE]

Very well researched! Will this be a full TL?

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Very well researched! Will this be a full TL?

Much appreciated. I have had a bit experience of writing a different TL and it is 6000 words long and still not finished and I would do one on this, however, I am starting university in 10 days. In hindsight, I have to say that I never written any other TLs let alone published the one I wrote but I decided to write all the posts because I knew it would not get much attention and I had been studying Iran for a while, so I thought "I'll put myself to the test" and as a result of your post, I must honestly say I have come full circle and become uniquely attached to this topic. (I don't know/unsure maybe because my granddad went to Iran as nuclear physicist = emotional attachment)

Put simply even if it's a year later, yes I write a TL.

 

[Salvador79]

Oh, I had anticipated a Sassanid survival timeline... (Does anyone know of a good TL of that sort?)

 

[Deleted member 92195]

I wanted to inform those who read this thread, since my last post I have found 4 websites, 3 books, 1 Ph.D. and 1 academic article on the discussed topic. I have also outlined the discussed topic.

I also wanted to thank Setofan for posting the thread and all his courageousness. God bless.