In that case, anything's possible! Even an all out war between the former communist nations, in that case. It would be quite interesting to see what would happen if Russian-backed Poland starts invading minor countries. It could lead to restoration of Greater Poland and annexation of numerous territories (which would lead to insane sanctions, possibly NATO invasion), maybe even a European War.
AHC: North Korea-esque rogue state in Eastern Europe
- Thread starter Whiteshore
- Start date
The Iron Curtain worked well enough for Eastern Europe until 1990. It wasn't perfect it but it kept most people in.
For one thing it has to worry about the Russians coming back . Poland knows damn well it can't protect itself from Russia.
damn I thought that said Alabama
I was like.. wow! I want to read this timeline!
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Well yeah. That's why I think they would be careful, like North Korea. They would provoke literally everyone around them, but once NATO or Russia decide to get involved, the ultranationalist Poles would probably back off. Maybe try to please the Russians (like Belarus).
But that regime doesn't stand a chance of existing for more than a decade. It would lack stability, plus it's locked between superpowers (compared to them). I imagine Poland having, like, a million soldiers, and several nukes, but that's about it. Without nukes, and Russian support, it would be quite risky even to try to attack any of its neighbours.
Russia was systematically working on expanding it's influence on Poland for centuries. Once Poland breaks away, they could be isolationist and "independent", but they will end up becoming a Russian satellite, and serve as their barking dog. Russia will (especially under Putin) use Poland to test the West.
But if that doesn't happen, then the Polish regime would be doomed.
There is a small chance they would become something like Ukraine IRL. Essentially they would be a tampon zone between superpowers, and serve the West, while warmongering with the Russians. They would blame Russia and depend on foreign support until their regime collapses internally.
damn I thought that said Alabama
Rogue state Alabama under George Wallace? Hmm, the wheels are turning...
I don't see that happening. The Poles really don't want to end up being recolonized by Russia. They piss off the West too much and that is what will happen and they know it.
Then the second scenario it is. Still less plausible then dictatorial Yugoslavia in its darkest days (90's) becoming totalitarian.
Made a thread on a "Juche Romania" a few weeks ago. Romania is definitely the most plausible, although keeping the regime in power past the fall of the Soviet Union is definitely a challenge. There's also the possibility of a major war with Moldova and whatever allies Moldova can find in the 90s. If war is somehow averted, they'll be yelling threats of war at all their neighbours every week, and probably eventually get nukes too since Romania had a nuclear program.
Consider that Ceausescu was inspired by Kim Il-Sung in OTL. A post-Soviet communist Romania might as well go the same route as North Korea and become even more ultranationalist than it already was.
The best help is getting Yeltsin out of there and getting either the Communist Party or the LDPR in power.
Consider that Ceausescu was inspired by Kim Il-Sung in OTL. A post-Soviet communist Romania might as well go the same route as North Korea and become even more ultranationalist than it already was.
The best help is getting Yeltsin out of there and getting either the Communist Party or the LDPR in power.
Albania is by far the best candidate. To make things even more precious it also had a WMD arsenal.
Well, Belarus also inherited a few nukes from the former USSR IIRC, so if they didn't hand over said nukes, they could have become a NK-esque rogue state.
I know the POD is 1970, but what if we go further back, and a different Treaty of Sevres/Turkish War of Independence ends with an independent 'Byzantium Successor' state in East Thrace? The state could be driven by 'Byzantium' reunification, making enemies of both Greece and Turkey. Being surrounded by enemies would force them to become heavily militarized- then in the 50's Greece or Turkey (maybe both) find a casus belli to declare war- and East Thrace fights a vicious campaign- perhaps aided by Russia? Some hero of the war become the Supreme Leader- setting up a cult of personality (The Marble Emperor returned!) The government is able to use the heavily fortified borders to keep people from leaving, the delicate balance of power in the area- East Thrace serving as a buffer state for Greece and Turkey, and ensuring no one state controls both sides of the Bosporus, meanwhile the state hates everyone near them, and puts huge %'s of its GDP towards the military.
This way you have almost all the things N. Korea that makes it what is is... except an extremely homogeneous population, but maybe some population tranfers before they became too crazy would help?
This way you have almost all the things N. Korea that makes it what is is... except an extremely homogeneous population, but maybe some population tranfers before they became too crazy would help?
Well, a more belligerant Russian Federation (like one led by Vladimir Zhrinovsky) could fulfill the PRC's role.
For 1. Belarus didn't want the nukes, 2 Belarusians are generally pretty peaceful people, they have had their share of bullshit poured upon them. 3. The greatest enemies of Belarus are 1. Belarus and 2. its largest neighbor. who it just happened to become independent from.
4. it was a requirement to give up the nukes or at least asked nicely < cough cough> . it was bad enough the soviet union was falling apart, but a whole crap ton of newly independent nuclear powered nations with an axe to grind wasn't a great idea.
Honestly, you would need a revanchist Poland and Lithuania and in which case others would tell both Poland and Lithuania where to go screw themselves. Belarus prides its claims on being greater Lithuania, because well. it was the largest territorial part of old Lithuania.
Belarus is a lot of things, North Korea its not. ( even after decades of sanctions ) if it was so bad it would just be reabsorbed into Russia. Belarus may not be exactly the model of western life ( and that may not always be a bad thing) , but it is quite far removed from being a tin pot crap hole that north korea is.
if they had to have nukes, then I guess you would need to choose an ex SSR.. otherwise you need population and resources to actually be a threat. if you just want to be a shit hole.. go to transnitra
Have Romania survive under communism.
Its just if it was that bad in Belarus.. they would have been absorbed. the difference is that the north Koreans fear the Chinese as well.. hence why they are the hermit kingdom. they don't like china, they don't like Russians, they don't like the west..
the ex SSR's Russia included learned a valuable lesson from the collapse of the USSR. bread and circus and provide western goods. keep the population distracted. ( same thing used in the west )
Belarus would have collapsed in the late 90's if it pulled a north kroea
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