alternatehistory.com
OOU: Odds and ends
Hopefully I don't get anyone's hopes up with this post, but this is a collection of some odds and ends stuff (mostly centered around TTL's 1968 elections) that I've worked on since finishing this series.
Presidential birthplace map
View attachment 334296
Just a fun little map, with 37 OTL presidents (Washington to Lyndon Johnson plus HW Bush) represented alongside the seven men who didn't become president IOTL who did ITTL.
Notably, the states of California (Nixon), Nebraska (Ford), Georgia (Carter), Arkansas (Clinton), Connecticut (W Bush) and Hawaii (Obama) don't have any presidential birthplaces ITTL. Illinois swaps one IOTL (Reagan) for two ITTL (Pete Wilson and Deval Patrick).
States that don't have a presidential birthplace IOTL that do ITTL include: South Dakota (Humphrey), Maine (Muskie), Kansas (Dole), and Alabama (Riley).
1968 presidential election results by county
A closer look at TTL's 1968 election results. A key caveat is that Alaska didn't record their votes by county/borough, so I couldn't figure out TTL's winners for those areas. Also, some of the Virginia counties changed IOTL & ITTL between 1968 and 2016 (when the basemap I used was created), so hopefully my awful hand-drawing of those old county/independent city boundaries isn't too noticeable.
United States legislative elections, 1968
View attachment 334295
I got to wondering how exactly TTL's 1968 would shake-up, given the measured effects of presidential coattails. I'd seen research indicating that *generally* one percentage-point increase for a presidential candidate correlates to a percentage-point increase in that party's Senate candidates (if a state has a concurrent Senate election) and about one-half of one percentage-point for that party's House candidates. So I applied the changed vote and came up with the changed results in the spoiler below.
Interestingly, the same research indicated that voters have a sort of "balancing" impulse, so that presidential candidates often have negative coattails when it comes to gubernatorial contests. Applying the average changes didn't result in any changes from OTL, so I decided not to bother with an infobox for TTL's 1968 gubernatorial contests.
Two freshmen who become more notable ITTL include the Republican congressman from Connecticut's 4th district (future independent presidential candidate Lowell Weicker) and Republican senator from Kansas (future President Bob Dole). People that were elected IOTL that weren't ITTL include OTL future Attorney General William Saxbe (Ohio), Bob Packwood (Oregon) who IOTL resigned before he was expelled from the Senate, and two OTL Secretaries of the Interior, Thomas Kleppe (ND-02) and Manuel Lujan Jr. (NM-02).
Presidential birthplace map
View attachment 334296
Just a fun little map, with 37 OTL presidents (Washington to Lyndon Johnson plus HW Bush) represented alongside the seven men who didn't become president IOTL who did ITTL.
Notably, the states of California (Nixon), Nebraska (Ford), Georgia (Carter), Arkansas (Clinton), Connecticut (W Bush) and Hawaii (Obama) don't have any presidential birthplaces ITTL. Illinois swaps one IOTL (Reagan) for two ITTL (Pete Wilson and Deval Patrick).
States that don't have a presidential birthplace IOTL that do ITTL include: South Dakota (Humphrey), Maine (Muskie), Kansas (Dole), and Alabama (Riley).
1968 presidential election results by county
A closer look at TTL's 1968 election results. A key caveat is that Alaska didn't record their votes by county/borough, so I couldn't figure out TTL's winners for those areas. Also, some of the Virginia counties changed IOTL & ITTL between 1968 and 2016 (when the basemap I used was created), so hopefully my awful hand-drawing of those old county/independent city boundaries isn't too noticeable.
United States legislative elections, 1968
View attachment 334295
I got to wondering how exactly TTL's 1968 would shake-up, given the measured effects of presidential coattails. I'd seen research indicating that *generally* one percentage-point increase for a presidential candidate correlates to a percentage-point increase in that party's Senate candidates (if a state has a concurrent Senate election) and about one-half of one percentage-point for that party's House candidates. So I applied the changed vote and came up with the changed results in the spoiler below.
House of Representatives
New Mexico's 2nd district (DEM hold)
North Dakota's 2nd district (DEM gain)
Wisconsin's 1st district (DEM gain)
Senate
Kentucky (DEM gain)
Ohio (DEM hold)
Oregon (DEM hold)
New Mexico's 2nd district (DEM hold)
North Dakota's 2nd district (DEM gain)
Wisconsin's 1st district (DEM gain)
Senate
Kentucky (DEM gain)
Ohio (DEM hold)
Oregon (DEM hold)
Interestingly, the same research indicated that voters have a sort of "balancing" impulse, so that presidential candidates often have negative coattails when it comes to gubernatorial contests. Applying the average changes didn't result in any changes from OTL, so I decided not to bother with an infobox for TTL's 1968 gubernatorial contests.
Two freshmen who become more notable ITTL include the Republican congressman from Connecticut's 4th district (future independent presidential candidate Lowell Weicker) and Republican senator from Kansas (future President Bob Dole). People that were elected IOTL that weren't ITTL include OTL future Attorney General William Saxbe (Ohio), Bob Packwood (Oregon) who IOTL resigned before he was expelled from the Senate, and two OTL Secretaries of the Interior, Thomas Kleppe (ND-02) and Manuel Lujan Jr. (NM-02).
- lord caedus
- Word Count: 410