TL191: What if if US won first Great War, but Germany Lost

[xie323]

Let's say US wins the first Great War, but Germany and the Central Power loses? So maybe history goes on the same(Fascists in Italy, Nazis in Germany, etc...) in Europe and in the South Featherston takes over with his Freedomites?

To what extent would the Freedomites cooperate with Nazi Germany, and what impact would it have on the war effort? How would such a cooperation affect the war in Europe, if at all? What would this mean for the US war effort in the American front?

 

[Michael B]

To what extent would the Freedomites cooperate with Nazi Germany, and what impact would it have on the war effort? How would such a cooperation affect the war in Europe, if at all? What would this mean for the US war effort in the American front?

The CSA would stay with Britain and France because they are winners. Britain and France would go along with this. The reason for that is that it would provide a useful base of operations for the Entente. Defeat of Germany in the Great War leaves control of the world by Britain and France. Well, sort of control. The difference between OL and TL191 is that the USA is not a sleeping giant but a hostile power and one that obviously needs to be contained. Whether or not the parts of Canada that were captured are returned, the fact that the USA were more successful on the Northern Front would be worrying for the British. Thus they would have to create a larger garrison.

In the south in the next war the CSA will obviously need reinforcing, probably French troops as the British are committed to Canada. That can not be that many as France is still committed to containing Germany as well.

In the case of the other alliance, the balance of power will have changed. My understanding from start of The Great War, American Front is that it is the USA that is looking for an ally, not Germany. That would make the latter the senior partner.

After a Great War with Germany defeated power switches to the USA for two reasons. One, she won on her front. Two, it is now not a case of getting Britain and France off the back of the USA, but off the back of Germany. The USA can do things such as build barrels and fighter planes that Germany would not be permitted to do so. That give her seniority.

In WW2, TL191 it can be assumed that Featherstone will start a war. However, France may not do so because in this PoD she had no incentive to start one. Instead she will remain behind the Maginot Line. She could still plead a risk of Germany and so not send many troops. This would be even more so if it were timed with the Nazis starting a war.

In a non Nazi war Britain has a choice. Join an aggressor and strike the USA or sit this one out. Given no threat from Germany my guess is a repeat of the Second War between the States, ie enough effort to stop the CSA getting completely flattened but no more. Containment of the USA is easiest done by an intact CSA.

In a Nazi ,to use local jargon the CSA will be sold down the river if vis Canada that gets a neutral USA.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I doubt history would go the same, a status quo ante is more likely as the defeats balance each other out. If the CSA and Canada were beaten worse than Germany, then Europe gets status quo ante and the US minor gains in NA, if Germany is beaten worse than Germany takes some more minor than OTL losses and Canada and the CSA get a status quo ante. If both are roughly the same, then status quo ante

The US isn't just going to let their allies get Versailled, and the UK is not just going to give up Canada and have the CSA Versailled. IMO Canada is worth rather more to the UK than draconian terms on Germany, and a viable European ally worth more to the US than Canada

IMO status quo in Europe with minor to moderate US gains in NA is most likely, as the CSA was beaten rather worse than OTL Germany, and ITTL the Entente are rather weaker in Europe

 

[Michael B]

I doubt history would go the same, a status quo ante is more likely as the defeats balance each other out. If the CSA and Canada were beaten worse than Germany, then Europe gets status quo ante and the US minor gains in NA, if Germany is beaten worse than Germany takes some more minor than OTL losses and Canada and the CSA get a status quo ante. If both are roughly the same, then status quo ante

The US isn't just going to let their allies get Versailled, and the UK is not just going to give up Canada and have the CSA Versailled. IMO Canada is worth rather more to the UK than draconian terms on Germany, and a viable European ally worth more to the US than Canada

Agreed, but what about the French? If it was both the CSA and Germany getting Versailled (I like the term) or neither then the Paris would go for the former. Thus, handled right the USA could divide and rule its two European enemies. A stronger CSA and neutral Britain would be worth seeing their allies trimmed. Germany would probably go along with it too if it split the British and French.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Agreed, but what about the French? If it was both the CSA and Germany getting Versailled (I like the term) or neither then the Paris would go for the former. Thus, handled right the USA could divide and rule its two European enemies. A stronger CSA and neutral Britain would be worth seeing their allies trimmed. Germany would probably go along with it too if it split the British and French.

Don't you mean a weaker CSA and a nuetral Britain? Short term it could be worth it, but long term it would not, as it looks really bad for you to sell out your allies like that and makes finding other allies, and dealing with other countries more difficult

France may want to wreck Germany, but France is by far the weaker partner absent an early Entente victory, they can't enforce this on their own and very well know it. Plus they want Britain as an ally in the future, because they know the Italians are a bunch of opportunists with a desire for Nice, Savoy and Corsica, and they have colonies to consider (the US is not going to be pleased if France mutilates their ally, and can take the French colonies outside Africa without UK/Japan involvement). So France will have to accept less than what they want if Britain demands it

Of course either way I think there will be some Entente gains in Europe, Italy getting what it wants, or 75% of it at least (Tyrol is a maybe), and Japan grabbing the German Pacific colonies is almost certain. Probably some sort of demilitarized zone to satisfy France at a minimum. In exchange for that I imagine in any scenario the US is getting Aroostook back, plus some minor defensive adjustments vis a vis Canada and the CSA

 

[pattontank12]

What if it was reversed and it was the US that had lost, while Germany had won.

 

[Tiro]

Given the absolutely material supremacy of the United States (in terms of Manpower and War Material) one cannot seriously imagine a timeline where the South and Canada beat the United States - as I may have noted before one finds it more plausible to imagine a timeline where the United States wins the Great War but loses all hope of Peace afterward because of the Price that had to be paid in order to achieve that somewhat-Phyrric Victory (with a US Revolution comparable to the Russian Revolution of our own timeline as the outcome; I actually started a thread based on the idea but never really developed it to my satisfaction).

So far as a Timeline where the US wins its Great War while Germany loses, one tends to see the US adopting quite a hard-nosed isolationist attitude - doing its best to turn the Western Hemisphere into its very own redoubt against the Old World - although it is not impossible that the US would seek to make common cause with one or more of the Entente Nations on the age old principle of "Divine and Rule" (I'd bet on Russia, especially if the Revolution has yet to break down into a mere Bolshevik Revolt - although since France is almost certainly the only Entente Nation that did not directly confront the United States it's not impossible that the United State's very first foreign alliance makes an unexpected return from the Ash Heap of History).

It is also not entirely impossible that the Japanese would look to the United States as a useful partner in the Serious Business of dismembering the British Empire for fun and profit.

 

[Tiro]

I realise that one hasn't really produced any thoughts on the Germany (as seen above): I'll have to give that some thought, although one might go in a more interesting direction by showing Germany flip COMMUNIST in this timeline, as opposed to another tale of Fascist triumph.

 

[Michael B]

Given the absolutely material supremacy of the United States (in terms of Manpower and War Material) one cannot seriously imagine a timeline where the South and Canada beat the United States

Correct but if the British can send reinforcements to hold Canada they will. If there is another North American war the USA needs an ally to divert the British, hence the one with Germany. If not then it could lose again.

It is also not entirely impossible that the Japanese would look to the United States as a useful partner in the Serious Business of dismembering the British Empire for fun and profit.

The Japanese are formal allies of the British at this time. On OTL the British dissolved the alliance because they concluded that they no longer needed the IJN to help contain the Imperial German Navy. ON TL191, with an active USN there would be no reason for the British to dissolve the alliance. Moreover, it would be in their interests to see that the Japanese were supplied with oil and steel. In the case of the former, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company could sell the oil that it would in Britain to Japan then buy Texas oil from the CSA and sell that in Britain. Thus a major part of the later US trade embargo would be neutralised ahead of time.

 

[Tiro]

Correct but if the British can send reinforcements to hold Canada they will.

I suspect that Great Britain MIGHT be able to spare men enough from the Western Front to hold Newfoundland and some coastal enclaves, but I'm not sure they could ship a force sufficient to hold the US Army out of mainland Canada if the South collapses.

The Japanese are formal allies of the British at this time. On OTL the British dissolved the alliance because they concluded that they no longer needed the IJN to help contain the Imperial German Navy. ON TL191, with an active USN there would be no reason for the British to dissolve the alliance.

On the other hand the Japanese themselves might decide that the British Empire presents them with closer and juicier targets than those scraps of land in the Pacific held by the United States; Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaya Vs Wake Island and Hawaii (after all if one side of an Alliance can dispense with it, so can the other).

 

[Michael B]

I suspect that Great Britain MIGHT be able to spare men enough from the Western Front to hold Newfoundland and some coastal enclaves, but I'm not sure they could ship a force sufficient to hold the US Army out of mainland Canada if the South collapses.

If no Western Front then the British can send sufficient troops. Hence my point on the USA needing a European ally

On the other hand the Japanese themselves might decide that the British Empire presents them with closer and juicier targets than those scraps of land in the Pacific held by the United States; Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaya Vs Wake Island and Hawaii (after all if one side of an Alliance can dispense with it, so can the other).

There are juicier targets than knocking off territory belonging to the biggest empire on the block. Indochina is one. The East Indies is another. The situation is radically different to that in 1940 on OTL where Britain was on the ropes. No reason for the Japanese to annoy them.

On the value of US islands, you are right. On the other hand the British might give the Japanese a free hand to knock them in order to "discipline" the USA.

 

[Th'AnchoriticSybarite]

Here's something to sink your teeth in. In OTL between the two WW's Great Britain managed to shoot itself in the foot so badly that it managed in the miniscule period of 3 decades to completely destroy the greatest Empire the world had ever seem, the one upon which the sun never set.

What if in a burst of sanity following the mega destruction of the first WW they decided to sever their alliance with France and realign with Germany. Think about it a revanchist France dragged GB into two world wars to pursue punishment of Germany for humiliating it in the War of 1870. Gallic pride yearned for the glory of Napoleon without his competence.

In the same way as in OTL Germany saddled itself with pathetic Austria-Hungary and later with Italy and Japan, truly allies with whom you need no enemies. Tell Herr Hitler take all the elbow room you want in the east and if you have to smack down France in the meantime; no skin off our nose.

 

[Th'AnchoriticSybarite]

I have no idea what the attached files in my previous post are or where they came from.

 

[Tiro]

In the same way as in OTL Germany saddled itself with pathetic Austria-Hungary and later with Italy and Japan, truly allies with whom you need no enemies. Tell Herr Hitler take all the elbow room you want in the east and if you have to smack down France in the meantime; no skin off our nose.

I believe that Mr Chamberlain was unwise enough to attempt this approach at Munich in '38; what that course of action achieved is a matter of Historical Record.