Sheliak Lawyer
Banned
I don't believe the Arabs could win either as Israel's armed forces were superior in just about every measurable category.
AHC:Israel loses 1967 war
- Thread starter samcster94
- Start date
That doesn't really solve the various problems with the Arab militaries, which, other than the Jordanian Arab Legion, were almost completely incompetent.
If the Israelis can drop a nuke on the Aswan high dam Egypt suffers a flood of biblical proportions, makes the results of the dam buster raids look like a garden hose. A huge proportion of the Egyptian population including most of Cairo and much Egyptian industry is in the Nile floodplain. I find it hard to believe that the Israelis could not get a fighter bomber to with lob-toss of Damascus as well. Basically if things got to where the Arabs were looking to break in to central Israel and populated areas they would do a Samson.
Should the Arabs conquer Israel there will be a lot of nastiness. A lot of killings, a lot of rape, and serious looting. The policy at the time was that any Jews that could not trace their family back to before WWI, ie: before the British Mandate, were "illegal colonizers" and were to be expelled. Those Jews expelled from other Arab countries after 1948, either literally expelled or forced to leave by circumstance, basically left with the clothes on their back and a suitcase or two - all real estate, business, bank accounts, etc were confiscated. I expect pretty much the same would happen to the Israeli Jews in 1967.
I expect 80-90% of the Jewish population of Israel would be expelled, although to where is unclear, and they would go as paupers except for any overseas holdings. It would not be surprising if wealthy Jews who were suspected of overseas money being "encouraged" to transfer it, and a ransom paid for military POWs.
Should the Arabs conquer Israel there will be a lot of nastiness. A lot of killings, a lot of rape, and serious looting. The policy at the time was that any Jews that could not trace their family back to before WWI, ie: before the British Mandate, were "illegal colonizers" and were to be expelled. Those Jews expelled from other Arab countries after 1948, either literally expelled or forced to leave by circumstance, basically left with the clothes on their back and a suitcase or two - all real estate, business, bank accounts, etc were confiscated. I expect pretty much the same would happen to the Israeli Jews in 1967.
I expect 80-90% of the Jewish population of Israel would be expelled, although to where is unclear, and they would go as paupers except for any overseas holdings. It would not be surprising if wealthy Jews who were suspected of overseas money being "encouraged" to transfer it, and a ransom paid for military POWs.
Bombing Aswan would be an utter disaster for the Israeli's. Yes it would do immense damage to Egypt and probably win the war. But all those millions of Egyptian bodies bobbing in the Mediterranean would irreparably damage international sympathy, pretty much guarantee there will be a next war and that Israel will be fighting it alone. As I said, IMHO, the Israeli nukes are a gigantic bluff and more than likely aimed at the US ensuring they won't let Israel to be defeated exactly to prevent that happening.
Sheliak Lawyer
Banned
Israeli policy has always been the Samson option in the event of total defeat.
According to Seymour Hersh there are few criteria for it to be called into affect-the overrunning of Central Israel, destruction of the Israeli Air Force and a few other points I can't remember.
If any of these are met the Israelis will destroy Cairo and Damascus, probably Amman and Mecca as well.
According to Seymour Hersh there are few criteria for it to be called into affect-the overrunning of Central Israel, destruction of the Israeli Air Force and a few other points I can't remember.
If any of these are met the Israelis will destroy Cairo and Damascus, probably Amman and Mecca as well.
Good way to ensure ethnic cleansing turns into genocide. I honestly don't think the Israeli government are either that stupid or immoral. They may posture but when the finger is on the button it's a very different matter.
"never again" is not a joke. The Israelis, rightly or wrongly, expect that an Arab victory over Israel will mean a lot of killing, rape, looting, and expulsion of the vast majority of Jews with confiscation of pretty much everything they own as a best case scenario. If the rest of the world is sitting by letting Israel be destroyed (which is this scenario) the worst that can happen after Israel exercising Samson is that the rest of the world hates them, but if Israel doesn't exist then who cares if the rest of the world cries crocodile tears for the Jews. This has happened before. Also, if the Israelis trash Damascus, or the Aswan Dam will the Arabs keep going or stop...
BTW where will the expelled Jews go - who will accept them? Will second or third generation Jews want to go back to Poland, or Russia, or wherever...even if they will take them.
BTW where will the expelled Jews go - who will accept them? Will second or third generation Jews want to go back to Poland, or Russia, or wherever...even if they will take them.
We're getting WAY to far into modern day politics and away from what if in my opinion. So I think I'll bow out.
Sheliak Lawyer
Banned
It isn't a different matter when the state you have created is on the verge of total destruction a mere twenty years after its creation and your people are facing expulsion and potentially genocide.
When your in that sort of situation you don't care about morality as it applies in normal situations(as this is an extraordinary and dire situation) and you certainly don't care about public opinion(internationally).
The problem is that when you suggest a POD of "Israel loses in 1967" it gets sort of difficult. It's not about the rights/wrongs of everything from the partition to the present. You need to look at the psychology/beliefs of both sides - and remember what is important is what they (Israelis, Palestinians, other Arabs) believe not whether or not it represents and objective truth.
Sheliak Lawyer
Banned
Indeed people often just look at the facts on the ground and not the psychology that underlies those facts and their interpretation.
The best they could've done was just stop the IDF, and bloodied it more. In theory Egypt had adequate forces to do it and so did Syria, on its front. I speculated at length on how Egypt might've done better ("Best Egyptian Strategy 1967"). Even the destruction of the EAF might've been avoided or at least proved more costly for Israel.
Even in a best case for the arabs, however, a total destruction of Israel wasn't possible. Prior to the war the US Joint Chiefs concluded an Israeli victory was certain no matter what happened.
The Egyptians would've been slaughtered had they tried to take on the Israelis in mobile warfare. I noted that Operation Kahir, as described by Pollack, differs from that in Fawzi's memoirs. But both envisaged a defensive response to an Israeli invasion not a push into Israel.
I don't think either were strong enough.
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I would recommend reading Foxbats Over Dimona, it's a dismal, convoluted read, but a true eye-opener. Good lay out of the overall ruse that the USSR and the UAR were trying to follow, their plan to get the USN out of the eastern Med, which they had (explains how the IADF came to ice that SIGINT ship, they had it from the horse's mouth that there were NO USN vessels in the area), how close the USSR was to actually assault landing naval infantry in support of the UAR, etc. Friggin' Israel shit all over their plans by being just a tad more effective at their response than expected. I was in intell at the time, and I remember the air combat claims coming in and all the laughter at the extent of the overclaiming...followed by the realization that the IADF WAS NOT OVERCLAIMING...HOLY SHIT! Good times!
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