Alternate Electoral Maps

Deblano · Apr 23, 2017

Tex Arkana said:
1996 if Pat Buchanan had run as a third party (Ross Perot still runs and does about as well as he did IOTL)

Buchanan wins 7-8% of the popular vote and throws the entire South to Clinton. note that I believe this would likely be the map if Buchanan had won the GOP nomination as well.

Pat Buchanan did threaten to run Third Party if Dole picked a pro-choice running mate IIRC.

Tex Arkana · Apr 24, 2017

Deblano said:
Pat Buchanan did threaten to run Third Party if Dole picked a pro-choice running mate IIRC.

If Buchanan had actually ran third party, I'd be curious as to whether Ross Perot would have still ran as well. because if he didn't, I could see the map being even worse for Dole (with Alaska and possibly Idaho flipping)

Rhad · Apr 24, 2017

If we assume that Buchanan gets half of his primary percent in every state, he'd get 10.4% of the vote. Clinton would win 44 states (everything except Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, and Utah). He'd get 512 electoral votes, and a 18.9% margin in the popular vote.

Tex Arkana · Apr 25, 2017

Rhad said:
If we assume that Buchanan gets half of his primary percent in every state, he'd get 10.4% of the vote. Clinton would win 44 states (everything except Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, and Utah). He'd get 512 electoral votes, and a 18.9% margin in the popular vote.

If he's getting 10.4% nationally, he'd surely get more than that in Alaska and he would probably get enough there for Clinton to eek out a narrow plurality win.

Rhad · Apr 25, 2017

Tex Arkana said:
If he's getting 10.4% nationally, he'd surely get more than that in Alaska and he would probably get enough there for Clinton to eek out a narrow plurality win.

Yeah, he would, not sure how I missed that.

Tex Arkana · Apr 25, 2017

Rhad said:
Yeah, he would, not sure how I missed that.

He'd also likely get enough in Wyoming for that state to flip to Clinton to.

Rhad · Apr 25, 2017

Tex Arkana said:
He'd also likely get enough in Wyoming for that state to flip to Clinton to.

Wyoming wasn't all that close, and Buchanan didn't do that well there. It'd be closer, but I don't think it'd flip.

Osk · Apr 26, 2017

House and Senate from 1907 through 1909 in FNM:

fashbasher · Apr 27, 2017

This just hit my inbox:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...ump-still-beats-clinton-43-40/article/2621016

A new poll (take with a grain of salt) that showed that the popular vote today might be 43% Trump, 40% Clinton, 17% Other. What would a 43-40-17 Trump/Clinton/Johnson split look like?

Peebs · Apr 27, 2017

Using a generic uniform swing, that would be Trump -3, Clinton -8, and Johnson +13 (McMullin +13 in Utah to make things more (less?) interesting), resulting in an overall 5-point swing toward Trump.

337 for Trump, 201 for Clinton.
Note: While New Mexico is shaded as Clinton winning with less than 40%, she did get 40%, but I wanted to add variety to the map. Trump gets 42% in Utah, but again, I shaded it with him winning with less than 40% to add some variety to the map.

Considering uniform swing is generally BS, it would probably look a lot different.

Peebs · Apr 27, 2017

^ On a sidenote, from the look of it, the only county McMullin gets by going up 13 and Trump going down 3 is Cache. Clinton wins Salt Lake and Trump wins Grand County with 33.5% and 39.9% respectively.

Tex Arkana · Apr 27, 2017

Steve Bullock/Joe Manchin 491 EV ~45% PV

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 29 EV ~30% PV

Evan McMullin/Mitt Romney 10 EV ~25 PV

Tex Arkana · Apr 27, 2017

1976 if early polls showing Carter up by 20-33% over Ford had held until election day.

Leon Thotsky · Apr 28, 2017

2020

(Basically a much better attempt than my previous 2020 scenario. Hopefully now I can start a future TL here.)

President Trump goes to war with North Korea to raise his approval ratings, but a recession worse than 2008 hits and Trump's approval ratings fall to 35%. Biden is pretty much unopposed during the Democratic primaries.

VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/State Sec. Jason Kander - 391 EV, 51.6%
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 147 EV, 43.8%
Mayor Bob Stephens (L-MO)/Larry Sharpe (L-NY) - 0 EV, 3.8%

Sasalele · Apr 28, 2017

Peyton said:
2020

(Basically a much better attempt than my previous 2020 scenario. Hopefully now I can start a future TL here.)

President Trump goes to war with North Korea to raise his approval ratings, but a recession worse than 2008 hits and Trump's approval ratings fall to 35%. Biden is pretty much unopposed during the Democratic primaries.

VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sec. Jason Kander - 391 EV, 51.6%
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 147 EV, 43.8%
Mayor Bob Stephens (L-MO)/Larry Sharpe (L-NY) - 0 EV, 3.8%

GBehm · Apr 28, 2017

Parliamentary-style election map for a timeline in which American rebels and the British crown are able to come to a compromise on American independence in the early 19th century, bringing the U.S. to adopt a U.K.-esque representational govt. (Canada Style).

Al Smith For Real · Apr 28, 2017

GBehm said:
Parliamentary-style election map for a timeline in which American rebels and the British crown are able to come to a compromise on American independence in the early 19th century, bringing the U.S. to adopt a U.K.-esque representational govt. (Canada Style).

Just noticed something.

American Left are the leftmost of America!!!

Tex Arkana · Apr 29, 2017

Peyton said:
2020

(Basically a much better attempt than my previous 2020 scenario. Hopefully now I can start a future TL here.)

President Trump goes to war with North Korea to raise his approval ratings, but a recession worse than 2008 hits and Trump's approval ratings fall to 35%. Biden is pretty much unopposed during the Democratic primaries.

VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sec. Jason Kander - 391 EV, 51.6%
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 147 EV, 43.8%
Mayor Bob Stephens (L-MO)/Larry Sharpe (L-NY) - 0 EV, 3.8%

Give Biden Texas and I feel this would be a realistic map.

The Uchronian · Apr 29, 2017

Peyton said:
2020

(Basically a much better attempt than my previous 2020 scenario. Hopefully now I can start a future TL here.)

President Trump goes to war with North Korea to raise his approval ratings, but a recession worse than 2008 hits and Trump's approval ratings fall to 35%. Biden is pretty much unopposed during the Democratic primaries.

VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sec. Jason Kander - 391 EV, 51.6%
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 147 EV, 43.8%
Mayor Bob Stephens (L-MO)/Larry Sharpe (L-NY) - 0 EV, 3.8%

Nice map! One critique, though; this might be just a tad more realistic if the head Democratic ticket was replaced by somebody like Kirsten Gillibrand or Tammy Baldwin, TBH-I really do like Biden but he'd be 77 in 2020 and we're not sure if he'll actually live that long. I'd also add that any third party ticket would likely get quite a bit more than 3.8% of the vote.....

Baconheimer · Apr 29, 2017

GBehm said:
Parliamentary-style election map for a timeline in which American rebels and the British crown are able to come to a compromise on American independence in the early 19th century, bringing the U.S. to adopt a U.K.-esque representational govt. (Canada Style).

Interesting. What are the parties like, and can you give us the names of their leaders and important MPs?