WI: Allied victory in the Battle of Crete

[phil03]

I have seen countless of WI on WWII but not on this specific POD. In OTL the battle began very well for the allies, with the surprise effect wasted by the germans, large casualties during the first day (including some officers who where key to commanding the troops on the ground) and none of the airfields, witch the paratroopers needed to be resuplied, captured.

It was only during the second day of the battle that the germans got a lucky break when the allied commander made the fatal mistake of removing the 22nd New Zealand Batalion from Hill 107, the critical position defending the Maleme Airfield. Even so, german archives revealed after the war that the paratroopers managed to clear the surrounding of the airfield just in time, as they where running out of supplies and amo.

Lets say Freydburg doesn't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here. The paratroopers are destroyed, the germans probably get larger looses in aircraft then OTL, the germans got their first comprehensive defeat on land and the Regia Marina might have got a few more bruises as well. The allies, on their side, have prevented the OTL capture of 12 000 soldiers and still hold Crete. What happen afterward?

 

[Japhy]

Most likely?

An orderly allied withdrawal from Crete, on account of it being an utterly indefensible position long term.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

What are the arguments for being indefensible?

 

[phil03]

Most likely?

An orderly allied withdrawal from Crete, on account of it being an utterly indefensible position long term.

Care to elaborate as of why? Sure, they are somewhat far from their bases in Egypt but you need a solid naval superiority to launch an amphibious assault and at worst the Italian are on par numerically with the brits on sea while suffering from a deficit in quality and the allies just destroyed the only forces capable of an airborne invasion.

The germans are also gonna go with Barbarossa relatively soon, I don't see a defeat of operation Merkury changing that since it was more due to the Third Reich racial ideology then anything else and if strategic good sense could have prevented Hitler to go there it would have done so OTL. The airpower needed to even try is soon gonna be busy elsewhere.

 

[Some Bloke]

Regardless of the difficulties defending it, a withdrawal would not be feasible politically,
the Greek Government would see it as a betrayal.

That said, it would take a while to build up air assets to mount an effective defence, and more
time to give the island itself genuine offensive value. Potentially it could ease pressure on Malta.

However, once you do have air defence in place, you can have air cover for naval assets in the region,
and later base naval and strategic air assets there. Better allied logistics in the med, worse for the axis.
Not sure if this means you could use the med for shipping materiel East is feasible from 1942 in this case.

The Greek government will gain credibility from controlling Greek territory, which would
make cooperation with partisans on the mainland easier and lessen Communist influence
in the resistance. IOTL the Greeks could only muster two brigades worth of troops, which were
politically unreliable. With a base of recruitment, expect a bigger Greek contribution to North Africa.
It might also help with the Dodecanese campaign, maybe even influence the French in Africa (the
Greeks are still fighting, why not us?).

 

[phil03]

Regardless of the difficulties defending it, a withdrawal would not be feasible politically,
the Greek Government would see it as a betrayal.

That and the symbolic importance the island had just won. One must put himself in context: at this point everyone who faced german ground forces saw the whole thing turn to disaster. Then, suddenly, Great Britain would be flooded with newsreel of german elites troops being carried to prisonners camps, propaganda wise it would be an immense coup. No way you can evacuate the island after that.

Potentially it could ease pressure on Malta.

Probably I'd say

However, once you do have air defence in place, you can have air cover for naval assets in the region,
and later base naval and strategic air assets there. Better allied logistics in the med, worse for the axis.
Not sure if this means you could use the med for shipping materiel East is feasible from 1942 in this case.

The east med is definitely gonna become more unhealthy to the Axis, an early operation Tidal Wave who would actually succeed might just be possible as well, thanks to the bases in Crete.

The Greek government will gain credibility from controlling Greek territory, which would
make cooperation with partisans on the mainland easier and lessen Communist influence
in the resistance. IOTL the Greeks could only muster two brigades worth of troops, which were
politically unreliable. With a base of recruitment, expect a bigger Greek contribution to North Africa.

Allot of their best remaining troops where actually destroyed or made prisonners in Crete OTL so I'd say you are definitely on to something.

It might also help with the Dodecanese campaign, maybe even influence the French in Africa (the
Greeks are still fighting, why not us?).

The Dodecanese campaign is far enough away that the situation might be completely different by this point, if it happen at all. As for the french, its unlikely: their fealty to Pétain is just too strong at this point, it took the germans invading the Vichy zone to break it OTL and I fear that nothing short of that would do.

Overall, allot would depend how Hitler react to it, the scenario you outlines goes with him being reasonable, witch is possible. But if he goes into one his tantrums like he sometime did OTL and decide the island must be taken to avenge the defeat, no matter how strategically unsound it is.... Then the axis situation in the east med would deteriorate even quicker.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

"An orderly allied withdrawal from Crete, on account of it being an utterly indefensible position long term."

Then why did they try to defend it?

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Allied Crete helps while not being a war winner in itself.

Its a big propaganda victory, and at some point bombers from there are going to be hitting Ploesti.

I'm not sure how much this brings up VE Day, or improves the Allied to Axis casualty ratio, but there is some effect.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

Would a victory at Crete have any sort of effect (good or bad) on the Syria/Lebanon Campaign?

Would a victory at Crete have any sort of impact on the availability (sooner or later) of the Aussie 6th and 7th Divisions being able to transport to the East? This could potentially impact the Malaya and Burma campaigns.

 

[Japhy]

"An orderly allied withdrawal from Crete, on account of it being an utterly indefensible position long term."

Then why did they try to defend it?

Because they were there. Short/Mid Term =/= Long Term.

 

[phil03]

Would a victory at Crete have any sort of effect (good or bad) on the Syria/Lebanon Campaign?

Would a victory at Crete have any sort of impact on the availability (sooner or later) of the Aussie 6th and 7th Divisions being able to transport to the East? This could potentially impact the Malaya and Burma campaigns.

Syria I'm gonna say not that much since the Vichy troops are gonna fight but are still isolated so roughly OTL.

I'm gonna go on a limb and say that the 6th and 7th are gonna stay in North Africa to fight, at least until the end of the campaign there so while they would be available for Burma they won't for Malaya. What would be interesting, however, for Malaya, is that the Viscount of Gort was considered for Malaya OTL but was too needed in Malta. Here he might be available for Southeast Asia and do a far better job the Archibald. The France fight, a jewel among Alternate history despite some minor flaws, on version of the Siege of Singapore with him at the helm is actually one of the more rousing moment of the TL, quite glorious actually.

Allied Crete helps while not being a war winner in itself.

Its a big propaganda victory, and at some point bombers from there are going to be hitting Ploesti.

I'm not sure how much this brings up VE Day, or improves the Allied to Axis casualty ratio, but there is some effect.

Ploesti is a given and I agree, its not enough to turn the tide of the war by itself. What would be interesting is how a longer campaign with a rougher situation on the air and some possible attempt at evacuation could do to the Regia Marina. At the very least their looses should be similar to what the they where at Cape Matapan OTL, so important enough to push the war at sea in the direction of the brits, but they're is a possibility they could get quite higher. Possibly enough to reduce the italians to the role of fleet in being significantly earlier then OTL.

 

[Cryptic]

Lets say Freydburg doesn't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here. The paratroopers are destroyed, the germans probably get larger looses in aircraft then OTL, the germans got their first comprehensive defeat on land and the Regia Marina might have got a few more bruises as well. The allies, on their side, have prevented the OTL capture of 12 000 soldiers and still hold Crete. What happen afterward?

I agree with you, the tide could have been changed easily, though I think it would have needed a few more British category "A" batalions maybe from India? With the notable exception of the Anzac batalions, many of the British combat units on Crete were recently converted to combat arms from support units.

All that aside, I think a German defeat would be followed by:

- Germans retreat in good order to a defensible position with a landing beach. Allies follow, but not too closely. Though they are exhausted and feel victory is close, few men want to become casualties pressing home attacks against defending paratroopers after the battle is already won.

- Italian destroyers and commandeered fishing boats manage to evacuate several thousand German paratroopers from beaches. A few escape into the interior, but there is no where to run to and they are quickly killed or rounded up. The total prisoner bag is several thousand. A disproportionate number are wounded and were left behind by the Germans as unmovable.

- Crete remains in British hands. The defending units are hailed as beacons in dark times. The victory is also promoted as an example of how "ordinary Tommies" can fight and win against Germany's best.

Maybe then......

1943

- Crete is used as a spring board to clear other Greek Islands in the Agean, particularly those with Italian garrisons of dubious reliability.

Summer and Fall 1943

- Sicily is successfully occupied, and the advance up the Italian boot, though slow, is inevitable.

December 1943

- Major General Planer considers his strategic report. After 970,0000 fatalities in WWI, the British Empire has developed a preference for expeditionary campaigns on the "soft Underbelly. General Planer knows the war was won. He now looks to the post war world. The Soviets needed to both bleed the Germans out and be stopped as far east as possible in the geo political sense. The liberation (and de-communising) of Athens and the Pelopenessian Penninusula seems prudent.

General Planer recommends landing three divisions in Greece. One division will take and secure the peninsula. Two will take and secure the Athens area and install a pro western government. Suitably right wing resistance groups will form the re-constituted Greek Army and move into Greece proper with allied armour, aerial and artillery support. General Planer forecasts no resistance from Italian garrisons and only light resistance from second class German units.

- If, no... when all goes well, one allied division will remain in Athens to support the new democratic Greek national government. Two divisions plus suitable reinforcements will be withdrawn and.... landed on Corfu / the Albanian coast. Their mission in Albania will be the same as for Greece.

General Planers takes a deep breath and presents his report. Let the Americans talks about France. They can afford it. In the meantime... .

 

[hipper]

The main effect of the retention of Crete is the worsening of the supply position for the Axis in North Africa

Ships can no longer go from Italy Crete then straight south to Benghazi or Tobruk instead all supplies have to go West around Malta to Tripoli

also Convoys to Malta from the East get the benefit of air cover and have a much shorter Trip under air attack. probably an easier victory at El Alemein for as the German supply position will be much worse.

Fewer RN losses in the Malta convoys more ships for the eastern fleet in 1942.

 

[Riain]

How does operation crusader go after Crete being in British hands for the 6-7 months leading up to it?

 

[Zheng He]

This would be the first victory against the German Army. That would be freaking huge...

 

[Zheng He]

How does operation crusader go after Crete being in British hands for the 6-7 months leading up to it?

I would think the Axis has to abandon the Cyrenaica.

 

[hipper]

How does operation crusader go after Crete being in British hands for the 6-7 months leading up to it?

probably the supply situation for Rommel would be a bit worse as all supplies would have to go through Tripoli then shipped by costal traffic to Bengazi as well as by Truck up Via Balbia.

there would be no option to Go east around Malta to Benghazi as you would run into aircraft based in Crete.
of course that might mean that Rommel is in a more defensive posture and reacts better to the British attack, but I doubt the results of crusader would change much

 

[Zheng He]

Does losing Crete make the Axis go for Malta in an attempt to seal off the center of the Med or does Hitler totally nix the idea due to essentially losing the entire Fallschirmjager?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Does losing Crete make the Axis go for Malta in an attempt to seal off the center of the Med or does Hitler totally nix the idea due to essentially losing the entire Fallschirmjager?

Probably the latter, particularly given Barbarossa's imminence.

 

[phil03]

I agree with you, the tide could have been changed easily, though I think it would have needed a few more British category "A" batalions maybe from India? With the notable exception of the Anzac batalions, many of the British combat units on Crete were recently converted to combat arms from support units.

All that aside, I think a German defeat would be followed by:

- Germans retreat in good order to a defensible position with a landing beach. Allies follow, but not too closely. Though they are exhausted and feel victory is close, few men want to become casualties pressing home attacks against defending paratroopers after the battle is already won.

- Italian destroyers and commandeered fishing boats manage to evacuate several thousand German paratroopers from beaches. A few escape into the interior, but there is no where to run to and they are quickly killed or rounded up. The total prisoner bag is several thousand. A disproportionate number are wounded and were left behind by the Germans as unmovable.

- Crete remains in British hands. The defending units are hailed as beacons in dark times. The victory is also promoted as an example of how "ordinary Tommies" can fight and win against Germany's best.

Maybe then......

1943

- Crete is used as a spring board to clear other Greek Islands in the Agean, particularly those with Italian garrisons of dubious reliability.

Summer and Fall 1943

- Sicily is successfully occupied, and the advance up the Italian boot, though slow, is inevitable.

December 1943

- Major General Planer considers his strategic report. After 970,0000 fatalities in WWI, the British Empire has developed a preference for expeditionary campaigns on the "soft Underbelly. General Planer knows the war was won. He now looks to the post war world. The Soviets needed to both bleed the Germans out and be stopped as far east as possible in the geo political sense. The liberation (and de-communising) of Athens and the Pelopenessian Penninusula seems prudent.

General Planer recommends landing three divisions in Greece. One division will take and secure the peninsula. Two will take and secure the Athens area and install a pro western government. Suitably right wing resistance groups will form the re-constituted Greek Army and move into Greece proper with allied armour, aerial and artillery support. General Planer forecasts no resistance from Italian garrisons and only light resistance from second class German units.

- If, no... when all goes well, one allied division will remain in Athens to support the new democratic Greek national government. Two divisions plus suitable reinforcements will be withdrawn and.... landed on Corfu / the Albanian coast. Their mission in Albania will be the same as for Greece.

General Planers takes a deep breath and presents his report. Let the Americans talks about France. They can afford it. In the meantime... .

I agree with the immediate aftermath, with some Matapan analog but with heavier italian looses then OTL to cover the evacuation, tough I have my doubts for 1943:

1) I don't see why the italians wouldn't get out after Sicily like they did OTL
2) The americans are gonna be the top dog by 1943 no matter what and they are gonna veto the Balkans. Any operations there would have to wait late in the war but it could concevably very much change the picture for the Cold war. Perhaps, if the play their cards really right, with the allies in Sofia first and therefore a western-aligned Bulgaria

How does operation crusader go after Crete being in British hands for the 6-7 months leading up to it?

Likely close to OTL but with heavier looses for the germans and lighter for the allies. The following operations are gonna be interesting, however. In OTL the germans came reasonably close to defeat in the Battle of Gazala so with stronger brits and weaker Axis forces out of Crusader + the fact that the brits are gonna rebuild quicker while the axis are gonna rebuild slower thanks to the differences in supplies from OTL outlined by Hipper the ATL Gazala might very well be a british victory.

Does losing Crete make the Axis go for Malta in an attempt to seal off the center of the Med or does Hitler totally nix the idea due to essentially losing the entire Fallschirmjager?

Probably the latter, particularly given Barbarossa's imminence.

I am with nuker on this one, if the Nazis had been truly logical strategic actors Barbarossa, among other things, wouldn't have happened. Hitler was obsessed with Russia, no way he will report Barbarossa again or divert massive airforces just before it was supposed to start.