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FlyingSquirrel - Prime Ministers of Canada, 2000-2014: Re-re-alignment
Prime Ministers of Canada, 2000-2014: Re-re-alignment
Paul Martin (LIB), 2001-03 (Liberal majority)
Canadian Alliance: Stephen Harper, Progressive Conservative: Joe Clark, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, New Democratic Party: Alexa McDonough
Though Jean Chretien had hoped to serve three terms of parliament as Prime Minister, a sense within his own party that he no longer had a clear agenda and had been ineffective in responding to various controversies led to his replacement by his Finance Minister and rival Paul Martin in mid-2001. Martin, whose instincts on fiscal matters leaned to the right, led the Liberal Party in even more of a fiscally conservative direction as Prime Minister, expanding his appeal among suburban voters but creating unrest among the party's base. The Progressive Conservatives, sensing an opportunity, made a conscious effort to revive the "Red Tory" mantra by positioning themselves to the left of the Liberals on the economy, a role that both leader (and former PM) Joe Clark and his successor, David Orchard, were well-suited to playing. The breaking point came in 2003 when the Martin Government, judging the American alliance too critical to risk undermining it, committed Canadian troops to the deeply unpopular (in Canada) Iraq War. Many Canadians were outraged, with backbench Liberals increasingly threatening rebellion or suggesting that an election be called before the party's standing grew even weaker. Martin, hoping that the division among the opposition parties might keep the Liberals in power, finally agreed in late 2003.
David Orchard (PC), 2003-05 (Progressive Conservative minority)
Canadian Alliance: Stephen Harper, Liberal: John Manley, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton
The PCs' "Red Tory" approach had destroyed any hopes of "uniting the Right," particularly with the growing ambiguity of whether the PCs were even on the "right" any longer, but the Liberals' rupture with their base voters and the unpopularity of the Iraq War gave them an opening of which they made shrewd use. Pledging to wind down Canadian deployments to Iraq and restore the funding to social programs that the Liberals had cut under Chretien and Martin, the PCs posted major gains in the Maritimes, the Prairies, and Quebec (where the Liberals fell to just 4 seats), becoming the largest party but with just over 100 seats. Meanwhile, the Liberals' rightward shift opened the door to NDP gains in the urban cores of Toronto and Vancouver. The PCs were able to secure a 2-year agreement of support from the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois (who agreed with them on the campaign's major issues - Iraq and social programs). Though the new government took some heat over working with the separatist Bloc, their mostly-popular policies and the lack of constitutional opprobrium over the 2 years largely put the controversy to rest.
Scott Brison (PC), 2005-08 (Progressive Conservative-Liberal grand coalition)
Canadian Alliance: Stephen Harper, Liberal: John Manley, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton
Orchard, having accomplished his major goals - shifting the PCs to the left, restoring social programs, and pulling Canadian troops out of Iraq - decided to step down as leader at the end of the 2-year agreement with the BQ and NDP, though he came to regret it somewhat when the more fiscally conservative Scott Brison was elected as his replacement. When another hung parliament resulted, Brison formed a centrist Grand Coalition with the Liberals under John Manley. Though Orchard's spending increases were left untouched, the new government was more restrained in future budgets and worked to mend the rift with the United States. The Liberals, having first shifted to the right and then joined a grand coalition with their traditional rivals, increasingly looked like a divided, directionless party that stood for little beyond a vague and flexible moderation. Six Liberal MPs crossed the floor during this parliament - three moderates to the PC caucus, and three now thoroughly demoralized leftists to the NDP.
Jason Kenney (CA), 2008-10 (Canadian Alliance minority)
Progressive Conservative: Danny Williams, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton, Liberal: Michael Ignatieff
Under new leader Jason Kenney, the Canadian Alliance had made strategic outreaches to immigrant communities and capitalized on the still-in-flux alignments of the PCs and the Liberals, winning the largest share of seats despite taking only 34% of the popular vote. The Liberals, with their former voters increasingly defecting to the PCs and the NDP, saw their seat total collapse to just 21. However, Kenney's government - with all other parties positioned somewhere to their left - struggled to get legislation passed, relying on ad-hoc alliances on individual issues and finally falling in a vote of no-confidence over a budget bill in late 2010. The PCs chose popular Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams as Brison's successor, who seemed to promise an approach more similar to that of the Orchard government.
Danny Williams (PC), 2010-2014 (Progressive Conservative-NDP coalition)
Canadian Alliance; Jason Kenney, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton, Liberal: Joyce Murray
Just 17 years after reducing the PCs to a seemingly unrecoverable standing of just 2 seats, Liberals now found themselves on the opposite side of the divide, retaining just 5 seats as the dissolution of their voter base was nearly complete. Having established themselves as the new party of the center/center-left consensus, the Progressive Conservatives won a healthy 131 seats, their best tally post-Mulroney, and formed a coalition with the NDP, who had absorbed most of the urban progressive vote. Williams was reluctant to risk any sort of formal agreement with the Bloc, and the NDP's Jack Layton, eager to bring the NDP into cabinet, was convinced that supporting the PCs was the lesser evil compared to the risk of another Alliance government or a period of protracted political chaos. Layton's death in 2011 meant that the NDP lacked a spokesperson with the standing to try to play hardball with Williams or try to pull the government further to the left, and the party largely acquiesced to the government's moderate course.
(I thought about having Jean Charest defect to the federal Liberals and become their new leader just in time for the 2010 wipeout for maximum irony, but decided against it.)
Paul Martin (LIB), 2001-03 (Liberal majority)
Canadian Alliance: Stephen Harper, Progressive Conservative: Joe Clark, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, New Democratic Party: Alexa McDonough
Though Jean Chretien had hoped to serve three terms of parliament as Prime Minister, a sense within his own party that he no longer had a clear agenda and had been ineffective in responding to various controversies led to his replacement by his Finance Minister and rival Paul Martin in mid-2001. Martin, whose instincts on fiscal matters leaned to the right, led the Liberal Party in even more of a fiscally conservative direction as Prime Minister, expanding his appeal among suburban voters but creating unrest among the party's base. The Progressive Conservatives, sensing an opportunity, made a conscious effort to revive the "Red Tory" mantra by positioning themselves to the left of the Liberals on the economy, a role that both leader (and former PM) Joe Clark and his successor, David Orchard, were well-suited to playing. The breaking point came in 2003 when the Martin Government, judging the American alliance too critical to risk undermining it, committed Canadian troops to the deeply unpopular (in Canada) Iraq War. Many Canadians were outraged, with backbench Liberals increasingly threatening rebellion or suggesting that an election be called before the party's standing grew even weaker. Martin, hoping that the division among the opposition parties might keep the Liberals in power, finally agreed in late 2003.
David Orchard (PC), 2003-05 (Progressive Conservative minority)
Canadian Alliance: Stephen Harper, Liberal: John Manley, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton
The PCs' "Red Tory" approach had destroyed any hopes of "uniting the Right," particularly with the growing ambiguity of whether the PCs were even on the "right" any longer, but the Liberals' rupture with their base voters and the unpopularity of the Iraq War gave them an opening of which they made shrewd use. Pledging to wind down Canadian deployments to Iraq and restore the funding to social programs that the Liberals had cut under Chretien and Martin, the PCs posted major gains in the Maritimes, the Prairies, and Quebec (where the Liberals fell to just 4 seats), becoming the largest party but with just over 100 seats. Meanwhile, the Liberals' rightward shift opened the door to NDP gains in the urban cores of Toronto and Vancouver. The PCs were able to secure a 2-year agreement of support from the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois (who agreed with them on the campaign's major issues - Iraq and social programs). Though the new government took some heat over working with the separatist Bloc, their mostly-popular policies and the lack of constitutional opprobrium over the 2 years largely put the controversy to rest.
Scott Brison (PC), 2005-08 (Progressive Conservative-Liberal grand coalition)
Canadian Alliance: Stephen Harper, Liberal: John Manley, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton
Orchard, having accomplished his major goals - shifting the PCs to the left, restoring social programs, and pulling Canadian troops out of Iraq - decided to step down as leader at the end of the 2-year agreement with the BQ and NDP, though he came to regret it somewhat when the more fiscally conservative Scott Brison was elected as his replacement. When another hung parliament resulted, Brison formed a centrist Grand Coalition with the Liberals under John Manley. Though Orchard's spending increases were left untouched, the new government was more restrained in future budgets and worked to mend the rift with the United States. The Liberals, having first shifted to the right and then joined a grand coalition with their traditional rivals, increasingly looked like a divided, directionless party that stood for little beyond a vague and flexible moderation. Six Liberal MPs crossed the floor during this parliament - three moderates to the PC caucus, and three now thoroughly demoralized leftists to the NDP.
Jason Kenney (CA), 2008-10 (Canadian Alliance minority)
Progressive Conservative: Danny Williams, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton, Liberal: Michael Ignatieff
Under new leader Jason Kenney, the Canadian Alliance had made strategic outreaches to immigrant communities and capitalized on the still-in-flux alignments of the PCs and the Liberals, winning the largest share of seats despite taking only 34% of the popular vote. The Liberals, with their former voters increasingly defecting to the PCs and the NDP, saw their seat total collapse to just 21. However, Kenney's government - with all other parties positioned somewhere to their left - struggled to get legislation passed, relying on ad-hoc alliances on individual issues and finally falling in a vote of no-confidence over a budget bill in late 2010. The PCs chose popular Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams as Brison's successor, who seemed to promise an approach more similar to that of the Orchard government.
Danny Williams (PC), 2010-2014 (Progressive Conservative-NDP coalition)
Canadian Alliance; Jason Kenney, Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe, NDP: Jack Layton, Liberal: Joyce Murray
Just 17 years after reducing the PCs to a seemingly unrecoverable standing of just 2 seats, Liberals now found themselves on the opposite side of the divide, retaining just 5 seats as the dissolution of their voter base was nearly complete. Having established themselves as the new party of the center/center-left consensus, the Progressive Conservatives won a healthy 131 seats, their best tally post-Mulroney, and formed a coalition with the NDP, who had absorbed most of the urban progressive vote. Williams was reluctant to risk any sort of formal agreement with the Bloc, and the NDP's Jack Layton, eager to bring the NDP into cabinet, was convinced that supporting the PCs was the lesser evil compared to the risk of another Alliance government or a period of protracted political chaos. Layton's death in 2011 meant that the NDP lacked a spokesperson with the standing to try to play hardball with Williams or try to pull the government further to the left, and the party largely acquiesced to the government's moderate course.
(I thought about having Jean Charest defect to the federal Liberals and become their new leader just in time for the 2010 wipeout for maximum irony, but decided against it.)
- FlyingSquirrel
- Word Count: 1k