alternatehistory.com

Augenis - A Cross in One Hand, A Shield in Another
A hypothetical thought experiment that really requires some imagination and hand-waving from the reader's part. That is, what if Lithuania and the rest of the Baltics never end up annexed by the Soviets in 1940? And Interwar Lithuania thus continued to present day?

I call it:

A Cross in One Hand, A Shield in Another

1938-1945: President Antanas Smetona (Lietuvos tautininkų sąjunga)

After the adoption of the Constitution of 1938, the dictator of Lithuania, Antanas Smetona, was unanimously elected for his seven-year term. Smetona's term was intense - in the very beginning, Lithuania received ultimatums from both Germany and Poland, his country lost Klaipėda and was forced to rebuild diplomatic ties with the Poles. As such, Smetona decided to prepare his nation for a final stand, the country was rapidly militarized, and the diplomats led by Juozas Urbšys successfully tried to balance the two superpowers in between the Baltics and play them off one another. Seeing that dealing with Hitler is higher importance, Stalin decided to let the Baltics go for now. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia managed to avoid Operation Barbarossa, Hitler decided that attacking a heavily fortified Lithuania would be counterproductive and he instead obtained military access.

The war eventually turned towards an Allied victory, and the Atlantic Charter was drawn up to guarantee the independence of the Baltic nations. Not wishing to get into bad terms with the Wallies, in the Potsdam Conference Stalin decided to allow the three countries to remain independent, so long as they remain completely neutral in all possible ways after the war, in a Finland type situation. Lithuania joined the anti-Axis coalition on the last months of World War II and got Vilnius and most of East Prussia in the peace, in the last weeks of Smetona's rule, in fact. The old dictator decided to retire after his term was over, and died a natural death in 1951. He managed to save Lithuania from destruction, but the end of his reign loomed with dark times overhead.

1945-1952: President Stasys Lozoraitis (Lietuvos tautininkų sąjunga)

Smetona's minister of foreign affairs and a capable politician, Lozoraitis was picked as the dictator's successor, and his term had two main problems to face. The Soviet Union was running a heavy propaganda campaign, calling Lithuania the last vanguard of fascism, and the devastated provinces of East Prussia had to be rebuilt. Lozoraitis tried to rely on Scandinavia and the fellow Baltic nations in his term, he secured low-interest loans from Swedish banks which he used to rebuild the devastated areas, and he spent a lot of his time trying to modernize his country. Under him, Lithuania's policy of armed neutrality began - much like Switzerland, it was surrounded by hostile powers, and it had to rely on a grassroots army, composed of every capable man in the country, to survive. Lozoraitis was moderately successful, but the situation was very problematic for him.

1952-1960: President Antanas Venclova (Lietuvos socialistų liaudininkų partija)

Despite the Nationalists' best efforts to secure the presidency one more, even going as far as vote rigging, a successful Soviet campaign and the will of the people proved superior, and the famous poet and writer Antanas Venclova defeated Lozoraitis in the elections. Under Venclova, democracy as it was before the 1926 coup was restored, the 1938 authoritarian election was scrapped and rebuilt from scratch in 1953, the term was changed back to four years and the separation of powers returns. Venclova was an East-aligned president - after Stalin's death in 1953 and Mikoyan's ascendancy as Chairman in the USSR, he cooperated with them on a few projects, like a highway between Vilnius and Minsk. This drew out protest from the West, who saw this as an infringement of Baltic neutrality. Venclova was reelected in 1956 despite these scandals, and remained in power until he democratically left office in 1960, starting out as a worrisome potential "Soviet spy" and returning as one of Lithuania's best presidents.

1960-1964: President Kazys Boruta (Lietuvos socialistų liaudininkų partija)

A fellow member of the Socialist People's Party, Boruta was set to continue the legacy of his predecessor, but he was not as successful in his term. Negotiations with the USSR slowed, and the people of Lithuania did not want a Soviet-aligned president anymore. The US was now joining the game of influencing the Baltics to their side, and numerous movements cropped up "out of nowhere", criticizing President Boruta. While the economy was growing, Boruta did not receive credit for that, and he was defeated in the 1964 election. It was starting to look like Lithuania was becoming a major battlefield in the Cold War, and both superpowers had their own parties to influence...

1964-1972: President Jonas Žemaitis (Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai)

Five candidates were running in the 1964 election, but eventually, with tons of foreign backing "from nowhere" and a coalition with a number of parties, Jonas Žemaitis, an army general and conservative officer from the Christian Democratic party, won the race. Žemaitis tried to stay neutral in foreign affairs, but his major focus was the military. The country's army equipment was modernized, numerous fortifications were erected around cities and the border, and military service was made universal, all citizens over 18 years old were required to serve at least a minimum of 2 years. An epitome of "armed neutrality". Žemaitis's charisma and successful presidency led to him winning again in 1968, taking office at a very difficult time - revolts were springing up across Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe, some militants had ties to the Baltics, but the President managed to retain the idea of Lithuanian neutrality and avoid a Soviet intervention. Žemaitis also fostered cooperation between the three Baltic States, forming the New Baltic Entente, a military and economic alliance, in 1971.

In 1970, Žemaitis was approached by US diplomats, in secret, and they offered military aid in exchange for being allowed to place nuclear missiles on Lithuanian soil, of course, in secret. Žemaitis declined - after all, his country's safety and neutrality were more important to him than some American guns. This disappointed the Americans, but the armed President left office in dignity.

1972-1976: President Viktoras Petkus (Lietuvos respublikonų partija)

Disappointed with Žemaitis's neutral stance, the Americans backed a third party candidate, Viktoras Petkus. With the Soviet-backed Socialists in shambles due to party infighting, Petkus raced to the Presidency without much opposition and was successfully elected. He was a somewhat moderate conservative, much like his party, and this reflected in his style of rule. However, his biggest achievement was the hosting of a major meeting between the Western and Eastern Blocs, which led to the creation of the Vilnius Accords, an attempt to mend the rift between the two superpowers. Economically, Petkus was not as successful. Under his rule, Lithuania continued it's development into a first world country, but the oil crisis in the Middle East caused many problems, and the government failed to react appropriately. As such, Petkus was soundly defeated in 1976.

1976-1984: President Sigitas Tamkevičius (Independent)

By the 1970s, the Lithuanians were getting tired of the foreign domination in their politics. Every president was in one way or another pushed through by the two superpowers of the Cold War, and the will of the people was violated. Sigitas Tamkevičius, an ordained priest, a bishop, a member of the Society of Jesu, suddenly proclaimed his candidacy as an independent candidate, free from foreign backing, and this grassroots movement rode through the race for the Presidency handily. As President, Tamkevičius formulated his doctrine of the "cross and shield" (kryžius ir skydas) - the Lithuanian society must be built on Christian values (the cross) and defend itself from foreign domination like their ancestors (the shield). It was, in essence, a form of Christian democracy.

Tamkevičius stayed neutral on foreign affairs, trying to keep up friendly relations both with President Robert Kennedy and with Chairman Alexei Kosygin. His government oversaw a major education reform, establishing universal mandatory free education up to the 12th grade, and the "Vytauto vaikai" high school scholarship program. These educational reforms were vital in Lithuania's later development, and helped create an extremely educated middle class in the long term. In his later years, Tamkevičius watched the events in the Polish SSR with worry, where the "Solidarity" movement with their political and spiritual leader Karol Wojtyla was gaining ground. The USSR was going through hard times, but Tamkevičius's rule ended before that. His style of rule and ideology helped shape Lithuanian politics for the next two decades.

1984-1988: President Jonas Boruta (Kryžiaus ir skydo partija)

Boruta was Tamkevičius's successor, chosen by the Cross and Shield Party as their nominee, and easily won by piggybacking off his predecessor's success. Under his rule, more dioceses were founded and the Church now began to receive funding from the government instead of relying solely on donations. This was seen as an infringement of the separation of the church and the state, and Boruta received a lot of criticism for it from opposition parties. His biggest success was the finalization of the creation of a welfare state in Lithuania, started by Tamkevičius - taking an example from Sweden and Finland, free healthcare was instituted, and the people were protected by the government via a large standing army, unemployment subsidies and similar programs, etc. Much like Latvia and Estonia, Lithuania became an example of the "Baltic Model", a living proof of the success of a mixed economy and the welfare state in comparison to the communism of the Eastern Bloc. Boruta was, however, not reelected.

1988-1996: President Algimantas Čekuolis (Lietuvos krikščionių demokratų partija)

In the wake of the 1988 election, the Cross and Shield Party merged with the reformed Christian Democrats, and the new united center-right front picked Algimantas Čekuolis, a seaman and journalist, as their nominee, winning the election. Čekuolis's first term was especially complicated - after Chairman Yuri Andropov's botched economic reforms and major unrest in the Polish SSR and the rest of the Kiev Pact, the Eastern Bloc seemed bound to collapse. In 1989, a hardliner coup led by Marshal Dmitry Yazov in Moscow attempted to stop the collapse, and even the Baltics began to fear. Knowing that a lot of the international support for the dissenters comes through the Baltics, Yazov ordered the Soviet Army to draw up a plan for an invasion of the Baltic States, named "Operation Catherine". The Baltic Entente began to mobilize in preparation for a potential invasion, and President Čekuolis ordered an official visit with US President Michael Dukakis to try to secure PATO support. However, this was not needed, as the Soviet Union eventually collapsed under it's weight and dissolved, despite Yazov's best efforts to stop it. Karol Wojtyla was elected as the first President of the Third Polish Republic, the first SSR to leave the Soviet Union, while the leader of the Russian nationalist movement, Mikhail Gorbachev, became the first democratically elected President of the Russian Federation, the successor to the Russian SFSR.

Čekuolis hosted numerous meetings and diplomatic conferences between post-Soviet states to help resolve the chaos that was the former Soviet Union. His government pushed through numerous treaties with Poland, Belarus and Russia, too. However, now that the Soviet Union was dead, his main focus was reconciliation with the West. Because of the enforced neutrality, the Baltics were never allowed to join PATO or the European Communion during the Cold War, but now the gates were open, and the leaders of the EC - France, Italy, the UK and a reunified Germany - were more than glad to accept three developed and highly advanced Baltic nations into their ranks. There was a lot of opposition, of course, some people were worried about this loss of neutrality, and others were sceptical of the project itself, this issue almost split the Christian Democrats. However, a referendum showed that over 60% of the people were in favor, thus Lithuania, along with Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Austria, joined the EC in May 1995.

Čekuolis, outside of being a diplomatic mind, was a patrol of modern technology. His government approved numerous grants to the developing Lithuanian tech sector and helped develop it, which, along with an educated and highly skilled workforce to boot, was about to start a revolution.

1996-2000: President Justas Vincas Paleckis (Lietuvos liaudies partija)

In a shocking turn of events, the incumbent Christian Democrats were defeated by the People's Party, the successor to the Socialist People's Party of the Cold War, and their candidate Justas Vincas Paleckis was elected President. Paleckis was in favor of European integration, but he was also a Russophile, and his dream was "to see Russia as a member of the EC in 10 years". Despite this Eastern stance, Lithuania joined PATO along with the rest of the Baltic states in 1997. Paleckis oriented the country's exports towards Russia, and made numerous trade deals with Gorbachev to secure the massive market for Lithuanian goods. Paleckis also rode on the train of the Information Revolution - Lithuania was becoming one of the most interconnected countries in Europe, even though he himself didn't add much to it. It was around this time that many famous Lithuanian tech companies, like "Žibintas" (creator of the ZB mobile phone series, the dominating force in the market during the early 2000s) and "Kalnapilis" (software developer, creator of the famous "Castle" operating system, later branching off to other fields like video game consoles and auxiliary hardware) began to rise to fame. Paleckis was set for reelection in 2000, but a sudden corruption scandal involving numerous Russian oil magnates within his party turned his chances into dust. He could have gotten impeached for breaking his oath, too, if he hadn't already been thrown out by the election.

2000-2008: President Audrys Juozas Bačkis (Lietuvos krikščionių demokratų partija)

Representing the "cross and shield" part of the Christian Democrats, Audrys Juozas Bačkis handily defeated the incumbent President in the 2000 election. Under his two terms as President, Lithuania reoriented itself back towards the West. Bačkis was among the signatories of the Act of the Foundation of the European Confederation, a much more closely integrated successor of the EC, and he was vital in the negotiations for the EC expansion of 2005, when most of the post-Soviet states in Central Europe joined the organization. Because of his undying support for European integration, Bačkis was awarded with the title of the European of the Year in 2006. However, Bačkis made some controversial moves as well. Under his tenure, religious education in primary and secondary schools was made mandatory for all pupils, and his cabinet vehemently opposed the legalization of homosexual marriage throughout both of his terms. Negotiations with Russia's entrance into PATO and EC failed, and the new President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Romanov, began to revert Gorbachev's liberal reforms for a slow return of Russian autocracy.

These news were blot out, however, by a new economic crisis in 2007, and Lithuania was hurt by it much like everyone else. Bačkis's government was ineffective in dealing with the recession, and the trust of the people waned. Political fatigue also set in, the Christian Democrats had ruled Lithuania since the 1980s with only a single four year break, and the grassroots "cross and shield" movement was no longer as revolutionary as it used to be. It was a good time to be a third party.

2008-2016: President Arvydas Sabonis (Lietuvos laisvės partija)

A capable politician and the leader of the Freedom Party, Arvydas Sabonis raced to the Presidency and defeated both the People's Party and the Christian Democrat candidates in an upset as surprising as Tamkevičius's victory in 1980. Sabonis was elected on a platform of meritocracy and political renewal, and he wished for unity between all the peoples of the Lithuanian nation, but he had little cohesive plans. His cabinet was a big-tent collection of representatives from various parties, and their first challenge was the economic recession. Sabonis employed a Keynesian strategy, increasing government spending to stimulate the economy and employing the powers of the central bank to control it. His measures were successful, funds from the EC helped a lot as well, and Lithuania was among the first countries to defeat the economic crisis, surpassing it's 2006 GDP in 2010.

Sabonis was a liberal president. He employed numerous measures to adapt the government of the country to the modern age, beginning an "e-government" program to make the government more accessible to the average man. Homosexual marriage was legalized in 2011 despite many protests by the Christian Democrats and their supporters. Much like his predecessors, Sabonis was in favor of European integration, but he also cooperated a lot with the fellow Baltic states, seeing the Baltic Entente as "a trampoline to Europe. Opa, opa, į Europą! ("Hop, hop, into Europe!)". While this statement was ridiculed on the internet, becoming a meme of sorts, Sabonis's efforts to cooperate with the fellow Baltic states were recognized by his peers. Sabonis also criticized the authoritarianism of the Russian state, as well as President Romanov's belligerent actions in the Caucasus.

Sabonis was also a patron of sports, and in a historic moment in the 2012 Hamburg Olympics, the Lithuanian basketball team defeated the Americans and won Olympic gold in basketball for the first time! Such a patriotic victory.

---

So that was my list.

By the way, all of the people mentioned here are Googleable. It might be even more interesting once you know what each of these presidents did IOTL. ;)

Comments, thoughts and questions are appreciated!

Top