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The Ottoman Empire.

As time went on, this empire's weakness was slowly becoming apparent. Much like the preceding great Islamic caliphates, the Turks were the Scourge of Europe who scared everyone from Spanish sailors to Hungarian peasants, their elite Janissary and Sipahi forces were a terror in the battlefield, but their expansion from the Atlantic to the Indus River came at a great price - the burden of administrating and maintaining this gigantic territory with their administrative apparatus. The need to constantly crush and defeat rebellions across the Empire, maintain order, keep up the necessary bureaucracy to collect taxes and continue expansion was a constant drain on the state's resources, and a large portion of the spending being needed to maintain the court and pay for the Sultan's luxuries did not help. From the outside, the Empire looked like a giant with legs made out of clay, despite it still being among the five great powers of Europe. Although, you can say the same thing about Lithuania as well.

Within the last century or so, Lithuania and the Ottoman Empire conflicted numerous times, with the biggest war between them taking place during Albertas Jogaila I's reign, which he won and reacquired access to the Black Sea for his recently established empire as a result. And now, Žygimantas I wanted more. While Lithuania had sea access both in the Baltic and in the Black Sea, in both cases their access was blocked by foreigner-controlled straits, which, in the case of Constantinople (Konstantinyye), were often blocked to Lithuanian merchant ships. This "thirst for warm waters" was among the main driving factors for Lithuanian southern expansion. Religion played a role as well - the Balkans, dominated by the Turks for centuries, were Lithuanian brothers in faith, and the empire's status as the leader of the Orthodox was calling for liberation of the Balkans. In addition, the Ottoman Empire was not protected by the Amsterdam System, the set of "eternal treaties" made after the Twenty Years' War which set in stone the concept of "balance of power in Europe", making sure that none of the four great powers of Europe - France, Spain, Visegrad and Lithuania - get too powerful at each other's expense. This was the view that cost Lithuania the Polish Crisis a few years earlier, but it did not take the Ottoman Empire, which was considered to be "outside the boundaries" of Europe and it's politics, into account.

In 1674, after the assassination of the 13 year old Murad IV by smothering him with a pillow, the Ottomans descended into a succession crisis between three vying successors, which Lithuania saw as the perfect opportunity to strike. Preparations were made for a great campaign to the south, food was being stored, taxes were raised to fill up the half-empty treasury for the war, and plans were being drawn for the attack. While many people today credit Žygimantas I as the mastermind of the conflict, this is a historical misconception. While the Emperor indeed wished to make a blow to the Turks, the true mastermind of the invasion was his Grand Hetman, Jaunutis Songaila, who held many manors and lands in the south of the empire, especially along the Black Sea, and was keen on expanding his holdings on the expense of the Ottoman Empire. News arrived to the Lithuanian court in the beginning of 1675 - after taking care of his rivals for the throne via assassination and imprisonment, as well as swaying the Janissaries to his side, the dead Sultan's cousin Abdulmejid was crowned as his successor, Abdulmejid I.

Assuming that the succession crisis has left the country unstable and that the new Sultan is weak, Žygimantas I officially declared war on the Ottoman Empire in March of 1675, crying out for the liberation and protection of his "Orthodox brothers".

But was he going to fight alone? Of course not! Why not try to get Visegrad on his side? They have been fighting the Ottoman Empire for centuries now, and wouldn't they want to reconquer some of the lands they had lost? But Abdulmejid I was faster.

What Žygimantas didn't know was that he shouldn't have underestimated his opponent. Before his tenure as Sultan, Abdulmejid had been a seasoned warrior and leader of the Janissaries, and was well versed in the intricacies of Ottoman diplomacy with their northern and western neighbours, among other things. He was aware that if Visegrad were to join on Lithuania's side, the two European powers would be able to push the Turks out of the Balkans, so what he had to do was to prevent that from happening. And while both Lithuania and the Ottoman Empire were mobilizing their armies for a great conflict, Abdulmejid traveled to Buda, to King Charles VI of Visegrad, and after less than a week of negotiations, they signed the Treaty of Budapest. The Ottoman Empire agreed to cede Transylvania and some of their Croatian provinces in exchange for Visegradian neutrality in the conflict. Both of the nations knew this to be a temporary measure, but both left satisfied anyway.

With his western front secure, Abdulmejid could turn all of his focus towards Lithuania. The Four Year War has begun.

1675 was the year of the Lithuanian offensive. Moving through their vassal Moldavia, the 85 000 men strong Lithuanian army, led by the Emperor himself, reached Wallachia and easily sieged through the weak castles in their way. While the populace was not massively opposed to the Lithuanian occupation, it wasn't the "instant cheering and rebellion to join with Mother Lithuania" that Žygimantas I expected. On September of 1675, the imperial forces crossed the Danube and defeated vanguard Turkish units in the Dobruja region. The primary Ottoman force was still preparing and gathering troops near Konstantinyye. Lithuanian-aligned Crimean troops seized the Circassian coast, but were defeated by the troops sent from the Ottoman vassal Circassia. However, fearing an even bigger Lithuanian invasion, the Circassians did not advance into Crimea and instead held their ground in the mountains. Not like Žygimantas I cared. He wanted to defeat the Turks on the field as fast as possible, but they were avoiding a direct encounter, which was a wrench in his plans.

1676 rolled in, and neither side seemed to gain a clear hand over the other. In March, the Lithuanians captured Varna, a major Turkish port in Bulgaria, then seized Burgas to the south, not far away from Konstantinyye itself. The 11 000 men large Ottoman garrison in the region was decisively defeated, and after this victory, Žygimantas I sent Abdulmejid I a peace offer, demanding numerous territorial concessions in the Balkans and the Circassian Coast. The Turkish chronicles state that the Sultan laughed while reading the entire offer - this man was demanding a harsh peace after capturing a few cities! The answer was simple - no. Despite this insult, Žygimantas I was unable to just march to Konstantinyye and take the fight at the Ottomans - the city was too heavily defended, and the large Turkish army could very easily push back his offensive. So the war turned into a stalemate. Advancing deeper into Bulgaria was not an option due to the large mountain ranges in the way, so the Lithuanians spent their time raiding the region to the south of Varna. Abdulmejid I, however, moved in a weapon that the Lithuanian monarch did not even take into account - the supreme Ottoman Navy. From 1676 onward, this massive fleet constantly bombarded Lithuanian ports along the Black Sea and set up an effective blockade on all Lithuanian merchant ships in the region. The tiny Lithuanian Black Sea Fleet could hardly do anything in response, they couldn't even leave their port in Khadjibey without fears of being shelled to death.

In 1677, the Turks finally advanced forward, and the two armies met in the fields near Dyulino, south of Varna. 75 000 Lithuanians meet 110 000 Turks. However, neither army attempted to advance on the opponent, nobody wanted to risk it and attack. The Battle of Dyulino resulted in a few minor skirmishes between the frontline forces of each armies before Žygimantas I finally retreated back towards Varna. As a result, the Turks recaptured Burgos the month after the "battle". Both armies were starting to run low on supply, however - the Ottomans had fielded a massive army which could hardly be fed from the land, while the Lithuanians were far from their homeland and were scraping the last bits of the supply they brought with them. The war was stalemated even further, both empires employed raiding tactics to make the other force succumb to hunger, but all it did was ruin the land even more. Already there were recorded cases of hunger and famine in the region, and Žygimantas's planned "revolt by the Balkan Orthodox" didn't come. Lithuania's history of collaborating with the Catholics through the Concordate of Brest and abandoning most of original Orthodox doctrine was still remembered by the priesthood in the region, and the Patriarchate in Konstantinyye spoke out against the Lithuanians. The people may have wanted to revolt, but they lacked any strong leaders to rally them, and Abdulmejid was careful in suppressing any news about Lithuanian successes in the war to not incite the Serbs, Bulgarians and Albanians to take arms against him. When you hear that the Lithuanian heretics will be defeated soon and are falling, would you raise your pitchfork to support them, even if your priest, the only authority you know, tells you that you shouldn't?

Of course, you can't say that the South Slavs were content with living under the Ottomans, either. Just that this was not their time.

By 1678, Žygimantas was getting desperate, and he finally decided to make a move, meeting Abdulmejid's army near Bliznatsi, a bit to the south from Varna, and the Battle of Bliznatsi began. The Lithuanians had the element of surprise, but their main force moved too slow to take full advantage of this edge. However, the Turks had their own problems, most notably their lack of food supply after the long campaign marching across Bulgaria. They did have the numerical advantage, however. The fight began with a long and drawn out skirmish between the infantry of both sides, neither side able to make a successful push through the deep swamps that the battle was set in. Eventually, however, the Turks began to flank the Lithuanian forces, slowly trying to surround them, and in response Žygimantas sent out his empire's feared Lithuanian light cavalry for a harass charge. While the first few hit-and-run strikes were successful and pushed the Turkish infantry back, the hostile terrain of the battlefield was not good for maneuver, and a few failed charges resulted in heavy volley damage on the raiders, effectively ending the cavalry offensive. However, Abdulmejid was unable to counter with his own cavalry due to the terrain as well. Luck was on his side, however, as Žygimantas I eventually gave the order to retreat, leaving the Turks in control of the battlefield with heavy casualties on both sides.

However, the Ottomans were unable to make full use of this victory because of their food shortages. The land was thorougly devastated and couldn't maintain the massive armies, and any offensive into Lithuanian territory would have meant travelling through barely inhabited steppe for hundreds of kilometers, a death sentence for a starving army. Four years had passed and neither side was able to defeat the other in this bloody stalemate. Time for peace. And peace was made in Varna, in October of 1678, reinstating the status quo. Neither side gained anything in the peace deal, except for Circassia, which annexed the Ottoman-held Circassian Coast and managed to break free from Turkish control due to Abdulmejid's focus on the war with Lithuania.

The "great crusade to liberate the Orthodox" failed. The Ottomans were tougher than what Žygimantas I thought. Abdulmecid I's prestige rose to great heights, while Lithuania's descended down further. Former rivals started to eye this eastern empire not with fear, but with hopes of revenge. Žygimantas I failed to achieve what he set out for - he died in 1680, unloved, considered to be an ineffective monarch by most. His eldest son, also named Žygimantas, succeeded him, as Žygimantas II, and he was about to receive the greatest challenge of his life.