WI: Italy and Austria-Hungary side with France in the Franco-Prussian War

BlueThunder25

Gone Fishin'
Italy joins in exchange for Rome, Gorizia, and guaranteed close ties with France in the future. Austria-Hungary joins France to fight the Prussians again, and gives Gorizia to Italy to secure their flank. This happens around the beginning of the war, when France started to loose.
 
Mental_Wizard

Mental_Wizard

Not sure Italy wouldn't have more to gain by aiding Prussia IMHO. They can take the Austrian territory they seek, and carve off colonies or some eastern border from France. Just a thought.
 

Nivek

Nothing as the war ended ultra quick plus that activate the secret treaty with russia and we might get a little ww1 with austria losing Bohemia to prussia and parts of transylvannia to a vassal romania.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
apparently though in OTL there was more diplomatic discussion of the Italians helping the French than helping the Prussians. I guess the Italians just spent less time talking to the Prussians.
 

Aphrodite

Banned
Russia would never allow Prussia to be crushed, They will move on Austria. Italy will jump ship and make a deal with the Russo-Prussians for Austrian territory. The Ottomans will declare war on the Russians- they have no love of Austria but they fear Russia over all. The British will have to chose not sure which way they go
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
If this coalition actually does form, it is minimal risk for Italy. Italy does not need to do alot and can pocket its territorial concessions without combat from the French and the Austrians whether the latter win or lose against Prussia. Going in on Prussia's side, at least without the benefit of hindsight, is riskier in case the French do well, especially if the Austrians are allied with the French.

The worst case scenario for the proposed coalition would be:

French lose A-L as OTL. The "market" probably would not bear Prussia taking more than a few extra square kilometers over OTL.

Russians take Galicia from Austria and have puppet Romania take Transylvania from Hungary.

Prussia, especially the military and King Wilhelm, upset at Austrian behavior after the "soft" peace of 66, are in note mood to listen to Bismarck's counsels of restraint, if Bismarck indeed bothers to make the argument for mercy at this time. Austria's "repeat offender" status, plus the likely disintegration of the monarchy as the war turns sour, will override objections that this adds excessive numbers of Catholics to the Prussian-led Reich.

The result - the new German Reich annexes Silesia, Bohemia, Moravia and the Archduchy of Austria.

Mainly as an "eff you" to the Italians for being on the wrong side, Prussia-Germany keeps all of Tyrol, Gorizia and Trieste and Slovenia for itself. Slovenes won't be a particularly troublesome minority, and this gives the new German Reich a Mediterranean port. Italy won't lose territory and the Prussians won't be in any position to do a pursuit to ravage them or charge an indemnity.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
---I know this diverts from the OP, but it could be interesting if Italy, but not Austria-Hungary, makes a commitment to France early in the war.

Seeing this and early Prussian successes, Austria-Hungary might end up in a mood to attack and pummel their small but persistent enemy, Italy, trying to gain back Venetia and Milan and charge an indemnity and get good ole revenge.

Propagandists on both sides of the war may characterize it in racial terms, "Teutons" versus "Latins". Russia will be benevolently neutral toward the Austro-Prussian coalition.
 

Nivek

Johannes Parisiensis said:
What would be the effect of a greater number of Slavs and Catholics on the Reich?
Click to expand...
The main issue are catholics as people say will give massive power to the Zentrum at federal level and will be a headache for bismarck, maybe no kulturkampf as bismarck negotiated better a more gradual 'secularization' of germany? maybe pitting old catholics vs roman ones for a while?.

Slavs is less important, as germany would want them to become good germans and learn german and live like those, they can speak their dialects in private.
 

Diego

Nivek said:
The main issue are catholics as people say will give massive power to the Zentrum at federal level and will be a headache for bismarck, maybe no kulturkampf as bismarck negotiated better a more gradual 'secularization' of germany?
Click to expand...

With that many catholics in the reich and in prussia itself Kulturkampf is simply out of question as long as Bismarck doesn't want to lose his position or bring chaos to the Reich.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
I just don't see the Prussians being willing to leave the Austrians "unscratched" in territorial terms, regardless of the consequences. The Prussians tried that approach once in 1866, and here the Austro-Hungarians challenged them again. There will be domestic demand to take over at least an Alsace-Lorraine's worth of territory. And between all the amputations on the fringe, and Hungary breaking away, I don't see the Habsburg state surviving or whoever replaces them in charge of the Austrian populace doing anything except ask to be included as part of Prussia's new set-up for Germany.

Now the administration of Austria and Bohemia is tricky. Post-Habsburg there will need to be new princes for Bohemia (unless its incorporated directly into Prussia) and a new Archduke for Austria. Prussian sentiment, wanting to destroy Austria, but not *become* Austria might settle on a policy for at least a decade of treating the Archduchy of Austria as conquered, unrepresented territory, administered by the Reich as a whole, as punishment for its race betrayal during the struggle with France.
 

M79

How about North German Federation + Italy + Russia on one side and Austria + France + Ottomans on the other? UK finances everyone and maybe prunes a few colonies in the process, US makes a nice post-ACW economic recovery while maybe ex-Confederate soldiers find work as mercenaries, sort of a "lost legion" concept?

Maybe the war backfires from its original purpose and leaves a united South German Federation (Greater Bavaria in all but name perhaps with German Austria) under British protection, a remaining French Empire under the son of Napoleon III, a Prussia that takes Bohemia and Moravia while perhaps Hungary goes free with a titular Poland out of former Galicia. Italy gets Venice and Rome, probably not Corsica or Tunisia, and Russia takes Wallachia and Moravia while making plans for Bulgaria and Kars. France survives only due to British aid and then as a mean of preventing Communism from taking root while the Ottomans enact reforms that may or may not work. All the while the US sits it out and Spain buys back a random colony or two at discount prices because they can. Would Japan be offered a chance to buy Samhain or Kamchatka under these circumstances and how would China or Africa be affected? Does South Africa unite earlier and expand farther if they can take foreign territory on their own or do the Boers go deeper into the continent found a lasting nation in OTL Mozambique or Botswana?
 
Last edited:
Minnesota_Nationalist

Minnesota_Nationalist

M79 said:
How about NGF + Italy + Russia on one side and Austria + France + Ottomans on the other? UK finances everyone and maybe prunes a few colonies in the process, US makes a nice post-ACW economic recovery while maybe ex-Confederate soldiers find work as mercenaries, sort of a "lost legion" concept?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure Britain would stay out of it. It has always been in Britain's best interest to retain the Balance of Power, and a war such as this would potentially tilt it too much to Prussia/ NGF, not to mention would probably see the collapse of the Ottomans, Russia sweeping up everything north of Damascus and Italy everything south. Britain would probably be a lot more biased to France and friends in funding (if staying out of the war), but I wouldn't be surprised if Britain found some excuse to join the War.
 

M79

Minnesota_Nationalist said:
I'm not sure Britain would stay out of it. It has always been in Britain's best interest to retain the Balance of Power, and a war such as this would potentially tilt it too much to Prussia/ NGF, not to mention would probably see the collapse of the Ottomans, Russia sweeping up everything north of Damascus and Italy everything south. Britain would probably be a lot more biased to France and friends in funding (if staying out of the war), but I wouldn't be surprised if Britain found some excuse to join the War.
Click to expand...

But would they not wait until later in the conflict perhaps given the troubles elsewhere and ability to profit by selling arms and food to both sides? Yes if one side got the upper hand I see them giving credit or aid to the other but it might do so too late. Or if the NGF decided to get really greedy and go for the Netherlands or Denmark for some insane reason?
 

avernite

Minnesota_Nationalist said:
I'm not sure Britain would stay out of it. It has always been in Britain's best interest to retain the Balance of Power, and a war such as this would potentially tilt it too much to Prussia/ NGF, not to mention would probably see the collapse of the Ottomans, Russia sweeping up everything north of Damascus and Italy everything south. Britain would probably be a lot more biased to France and friends in funding (if staying out of the war), but I wouldn't be surprised if Britain found some excuse to join the War.
Click to expand...
By the time the British figure out just how unbalanced this is against France (they'll expect Russia to manhandle the Ottomans and Prussia to outmatch A-H, sure, but France?) the French army will be smashed and the British will rather be looking to salvage the balance through peace and second chances.

If Britain doesn't join and Russia-Prussia wins, they have to listen to Britain. If Britain does join and Russia-Prussia still wins, they don't have to listen nearly as closely.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top