Right Side Up: A History of the Space Transportation System

Of course if there is an explanation why it is OK for the Lifter crew to be sandwiched between their potentially exploding stage and the tower, I think we'd all like to know it!

That explanation is, in a few words, "the 1970s were a different time." Lifter is supposed to be a reliable enough vehicle that it just doesn't explode on the pad. It is, after all, an S-IC with wings--and that stage didn't give NASA much trouble in flight. Much as OTL NASA didn't give much thought to abort options, TTL NASA also doesn't design out all the "black zones."

Coincidentally, I found this picture the day after that chapter went up, which seems to verify that NASA was quite alright sandwiching crew between rocket stages with no obvious means of escape in those days:
 

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I had a whole bunch of responses already on Tuesday, but was delayed by getting hung up on some complicated sidebars.

....The Lifter’s crew, for a moment, could see the tower and umbilical arms in front of them lit up from below by kerosene fire--but only for a moment.
Verily a picture is worth a thousand words. Here we have the textual evidence of the dorsal arrangement of Lifter facing the tower, which I find so gravely troubling, yet no one seemed to notice until Nixonhead's illustration, which we see here is strictly canon.
...The belly of the Lifter and Orbiter turned to the sky as the stack rolled, and then the horizon re-entered the very periphery of the crew’s windows as it pitched over.
Given the dorsal mounting of the stack, I suppose this means a sketch of the trajectory would have it arcing over the tower, instead of arcing away from it. If the rocket is on the west side of the tower I suppose this is as it must be, and perhaps a reason why it must be dorsal--the Apollo legacy connections are all on the west side, the rocket must arc over the tower, therefore if the Lifter were ventrally mounted as I say it should be to allow a clear track for the crew capsule to escape in case of emergency, upon ascent it would either have to have the Lifter belly down instead of up, depriving the Lifter pilots of a clear view of Earth for backup situational awareness, or else during the initial lift phase the whole stack must rotate 180 degrees. I don't suppose this would be that hard to do but it is a complication. Transferring the legacy fittings from west side to east side of the launch towers would surely be a major headache too, and raise the question of whether this "evolutionary" development is so cost-effective after all. That only matters in early days, but it is necessary for the program to be started as inexpensively as possible of course.

It would be a hell of a thing to lose a Lifter crew to this cost-cutting expedient though.
....Across the Banana River, at Space Launch Complex 40, their counterparts with the United States Air Force were also breaking their labor to follow Constitution and Endeavour with eyes and cameras. There, a Titan IIIC stood cradled within its servicing tower, soon to be mated with one of the Department of Defense’s communications satellites. The Air Force technicians, and their counterparts from Martin-Marietta, cheered the Lifter and Orbiter on as they clear the tower, but there was a touch of unease in their minds--it was an open secret that the Lifter was to replace all American rockets bigger than the Scout. Just how many more Titans would they launch before their pad was mothballed?
I have to wonder about the manner in which DoD would handle this. IIRC a Lifter facility is being developed at Vandenberg. I assume that if the Air Force were to be persuaded to buy into Lifter, they'd demand their own DoD owned launchers, rather than poaching on NASA vehicles, at least in the long run--in the short run I certainly do think a number of nominally NASA Lifter missions will in fact be Air Force/NSRO. Will the Air Force wish to train up some commissioned officers to be Lifter pilots? If so, would be they be part of MAC, Military Airlift Command, or attached to SAC (on the theory that bomber pilots, especially any with training for supersonic capable ones like B-1, would have more appropriate skill sets) or create a Space Command (this happened OTL but not by the date the TL has reached yet) they along with the pad crews and flight controllers would be part of, or what? Alternatively they can simply "borrow" already trained NASA astronauts, a number of whom have USAF commissions-I do wonder if they would boggle at putting Naval officers in their Lifter seats or not! Surely the pioneering Blue Lifter missions would do well to first be launched with experienced NASA crews and then stagger in one each NASA vet and USAF trainee, to develop the experienced Lifter jockey corps. Then again Lifter missions are very brief, and I suspect neither NASA nor the Air Force will designate anyone to exclusively pilot Lifters--rather both will have an astronaut corps, the majority of flight hours each of these rack up will be in orbit, with Lifter missions being apportioned among them as an extra chore.

Anyway it isn't even clear if the Air Force will own any Lifters outright, though I bet they probably will. However that goes, the Air Force likes to control its launches and resented having to hand over their payloads and missions to NASA involvement OTL. Will they have to train up a whole new bunch of Lifter pad techs, or will the skills of the Titan crews transfer well enough to simply move them over from Titan and Delta and so forth to service any Blue Lifters? That is what I think I'd angle for if I were a general running the legacy satellite EELV programs--make the core of any "Space Command" ground crews up around retrained legacy program veterans. It ought to work well enough.

BTW, although I do seem to recall it was affirmed earlier the Air Force would be getting Lifter capability at Vandenberg, the "open secret" of the Air Force being forced to abandon their legacy medium and heavy launch vehicles in favor of Lifter/STS seems like an evolution since earlier posts. IIRC the Air Force was much less critical to or involved with the ATL "Shuttle Decision;" the economic case was strong enough without DoD patronage nor was the Air Force keenly interested. I guess that USAF input is mainly concerned with the Orbiter. So is this "open secret" a later development of the Carter years, which just happens to move the TL closer to convergence with OTL where the Air Force was joined to NASA at the hip in the OTL STS from the earliest days of its approval?

When we last looked it seemed the Air Force was connected to Lifter only via a desire to have some Blue Orbiters, and would be allowed to wait and see how Lifter economics worked out for NASA before being pressured to go with Lifter routinely. And so this current climate is a Carter era decision, presumably based on projected economics Nixon and Ford were willing to allow to be proven before backing DoD and NSRO into this corner.
... The flight of STS-8 was, but for some minor teething problems with the Orbiter, totally nominal. At T+120 seconds, the Lifter’s engines shut down and the S-IVC pulled away, its own J-2S-2 starting up at T+122 seconds, the disposable interstage falling away between them. As the upper stage carried the Orbiter the rest of the way to Low Earth Orbit, the Lifter continued its rapidly-slowing coast to 109 km--past the Karman line--before hydrogen peroxide thrusters turned it around and pointed its engines down-range. The center F-1B lit again, slowing the craft down and orienting it for a return to its launch site, burning off the remaining supplies of propellant on-board. The crew got to enjoy minutes more of micro-gravity, though they were strapped into their seats and so couldn’t move around the cabin. As the Lifter fell back into the atmosphere, the crew pointed the nose up, presenting the almost-flat aluminum underbelly to the incoming air flow, the better to maximize drag.
I think you skipped a step between the bolded phrases. It separates and coasts up to apogee at 109 km, presumably still with its nose pointed more or less skyward and ahead, although the turn-around for the propellant ballasting maneuver could surely start very soon after upper stage separation. The text seems to imply that PB burn happens at apogee-and indeed from an aerodynamic point of view, this is the best place to do it, for this braking maneuver demands either some auxiliary thrust rockets with their nozzles facing forward (clearly not the case here) or that the entire Lifter stage be turned around to put its main F-1A engines forward. That would be a terrible position to be in if there were any significant air drag! Apogee is highest, and also the craft is moving the slowest there. Clearly this is the safest place to be flying the thing backwards, operating like a spaceship and not an airplane.

But then, it would be necessary to flip the ship around again, to put the nose at the head and not the trailing end! There is no mention of this maneuver but it clearly has to happen.

Responding to Patupi, it occurred to me I had been thinking with some blinders on about this. I assumed all flipping would be a matter of pitch. That was before I considered that during boost, the Lifter pilots would be much better off with their cabin facing down to Earth rather than the belly of the Lifter facing that way, as it would help their navigational situational awareness. Therefore if it were to pitch much of180 degrees on the way to apogee to prepare for PB braking, and then after that burn flip again through a similar angle to be properly oriented, they would be upside down again with the dorsal side facing the slipstream, which is clearly no good! They'd have to roll, then pitch, or alternatively--I had not considered this because it seemed a bit inelegant--yaw 180 after the PB burn.

I was pretty confused about just when the PB burn would be. Dynamically it would be more efficient to do it at the last possible moment, as the craft nears the altitude at which it had better be going just 1500 m/sec. But that is bad aerodynamically and I re-read your text to affirm that it happens at the aerodynamically softest point, at apogee. If the Lifter had its cabin facing Earth as your prior text also confirms, pitching most of 180 for the PB burn at apogee puts Earth under the body of the Lifter relative to the cabin, which is also then at the trailing edge, the astronauts seeing Earth recede westward beneath them during the burn.

If instead of pitching, they began a yaw in either direction, even at a low angular speed they'd have some minutes for the craft to get to 90 degrees, flying "sideways", and beyond. Once well beyond that angle, the tail surfaces ought to serve pretty well to bring the aircraft axis into line with the strengthening slipstream, leaving the pilots to mainly concentrate on getting the pitch angle right as they approached 65 km height and 1500 m/sec airspeed.

Would you agree, that there is a missing stage there and it is best done as mainly a slow yaw of most of 180 degrees, with the building air dynamic pressure finishing the job and stabilizing it?

I had some fun verifying the figures you gave earlier for theoretical delta-V and other parameters, including those given here. I figure that if the PB burn happens at apogee of 109 km, the speed before the burn was about 2460 and afterward about 1200 m/sec. This would have the craft reaching 65 km altitude, assuming a small amount of drag in the last 15-20 km due to thin air above the 65 km line, at about 1500 m/sec, of which 907 is vertical. So it is diving at a 37 degree angle downward as the air density becomes such it can enter its nominal atmospheric drag phase. The apogee speed might be somewhat higher if it lost a significant amount of speed in the range between 65 and 85 km, but with these assumptions it seems that loss of actual delta-V due to air drag and impediment of rocket thrust at low altitudes amounts to less than 8 percent of the total, so there isn't a lot of room for improvement. I decided to omit many details of this figuring! One assumption I did make was that stage separation happened at about 80 km, well above 65, because I figure you'd want air drag to be considerably less than at 65, considering that the speed is nearly twice as great therefore drag would be multiplied by 4; a couple scale heights margin seemed necessary!

Between stage separation and reaching apogee would be some 90 seconds or so, plenty of time to pitch the ship through most of 180 degrees and stabilize it there before starting the braking burn.

I think if it were possible to do the braking burn just as one approached 65 km altitude it would be more efficient and allow a higher apogee transverse speed, but there are lots of good reasons not to wait until then. One really does not want to be flying a supersonic airplane tail-forwards in significant air density at 1500 m/sec let alone twice that! There would be plenty of time to yaw around most of the way after the PB burn before the air drag becomes significant. Apogee is really the best time to do it, although if it were possible to turn around instantly, doing it immediately after separation would be better since it lowers the apogee. That's a bad idea because of residual air drag and because turning the ship around over one minute is a very much less severe thing than trying to do it in just a few seconds!
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I wanted to comment on the Lifter using hydrogen peroxide thrusters too. This seemed strange to me. Everyone knows I hate hypergolics, but these are what the US space program settled on for maneuvering thrusters long before, used in Mercury, Gemini and Apollo. The scale of the Lifter is much greater than even an Apollo stack of course, only the OTL Orbiter compares and even that is smaller than the hundreds of tons and large linear scales involved in turning the Lifter end to end in vacuum and free fall. A straightforward evolution of off the shelf Apollo and other legacy NASA and USAF hardware would point toward hypergolic thrusters, perhaps related more to such engines as the Apollo SM main engine or better yet, the LM descent stage engine. Pressure fed, able to throttle down to low thrusts via operating in burst mode, such engines would be what I would expect. What space craft did the American designers have experience with using, I suppose, catalyzed pressure fed HTHP monopropellant? Why choose that for the Lifter instead of hypergolics?

Certainly I know of the bad experience of the reentering Apollo CM from Apollo-Soyuz, in which apparently some sort of atmospheric intake combined with a maneuvering thruster propellant leak to bring either the oxidant or hydrazine into the cabin, causing the astronauts severe problems. But an Apollo capsule is a very tight, compact environment compared to the Lifter, whose size is more like a Jumbo jet. Surely the crew cabin would be separated by many meters of hard vacuum from hypergolic fuel tanks and lines and the thrusters themselves. OTL of course the Orbiter stuck with hypergolic thrusters, as does the ATL Orbiter it seems. Hypergolic storage surely poses a bigger hazard in the relatively smaller and compact Orbiter than in the Lifter. Was there a concern that in the rougher aerodynamic environment the Lifter stays closer to, pairs of leaks might lead to explosions? Just as I have perhaps an extreme aversion to hypergolics, I am perhaps too sanguine about hydrogen peroxide--which in some chemical classifications is analogous to the nitrogen based oxidant I fear and despise so much. I'd much rather fly with peroxide myself, but I believe we've learned a few tricks about handling it that were not widely known in the USA in the early 1970s. One is to chill the stuff to near freezing, meaning it is best handled as a weakly cryogenic fluid rather than regarding as "room temperature storable." Another is that it is apparently, and somewhat counterintuitively, more stable when very highly purified than mixed with significant amounts of water--99.999 test is more stable than 99, and more stable still than 90 percent test.

While HTHP is much less toxic than either normal component of hypergolic mixes, it is still harmful enough if ingested or even touching skin--in high concentration it will kill crew in a confined space just as dead in the short run; it is in the long run, after a release into the environment, that it proves far less cumulatively toxic. In terms of crew safety in a confined space, it is arguably just as bad as hydrazine. In terms of explosion hazard--even the two components of hypergolic systems are not themselves highly likely to blow up all alone without a catalyst. Hydrogen peroxide is so prone to degenerate and thus build up explosive pressures that even water molecules apparently act as catalysts!

As a monopropellant, HTHP might be highly competitive with other monopropellants, but its ISP is far inferior to hypergolic mixes, which require no catalyst and burn very reliably when properly metered together. Therefore one would need considerably greater masses of HTHP to provide the same moment control budget.

Another thing I wonder--having decided, for whatever idiosyncratic reason, to switch to HTHP, why not, on a craft awash with so much kerosene fuel, make the thrusters burn some of it? As we know, HTHP has a very high oxidant/fuel ratio, meaning that one would add just a bit over 10 percent of the mass of peroxide to the mix in the form of fuel to get a much higher ISP, 270 sec or higher (maybe much lower in a simple thruster chamber, say 240) versus half that, 120 or so for monopropellant. Thus the mass of HTHP required would be cut in half while only a seventh of that more would be reserved from the kerosene supply. I suppose thrusters need the reliability and simplicity of a pressure-fed system, but setting aside modest amounts of kerosene to be pressurized by modest amounts of helium or nitrogen, perhaps itself pumped by an auxiliary peroxide-kerosene turbine, would seem feasible and not more complex overall than doing the same for hypergolic elements. The ISP of the latter might still remain moderately better than the ker-peroxide alternative, but the ratio would be much lower than 2 to 1 as with monopropellant. I would think the design of a reliable and highly controllable ker-peroxide thruster would be not much more complex than monopropellant--the latter requires a pressurized peroxide supply, valves and a catalyst and then an expansion nozzle. The former would add a small simple combustion chamber and counter flowing fuel injectors, doubtless mechanically slaved to the peroxide valves to always admit a proportional amount of pressurized kerosene. The mix would burn practically like hypergolic in the chamber and be exhausted, in bursts or throttled steady flows, through the nozzle. If the ker-peroxoide thruster might require cooling during a sustained burn, so would hypergolics I'd think. Here perhaps is where pure peroxide monopropellant systems might come out ahead--the lower ISP corresponds to much lower temperatures, so no coolant system to add mass and possibility of breakdown might be required.

I still think, if they are going to take the plunge and develop HTHP in place of developed hypergolic systems, they ought to have gone the next step and worked some kerosene into the mix for much better and equally controllable performance.
...The crew extended the Orbiter’s Canadian-built robot arm, including using a camera on the end to photograph the thermal insulation tiles on the Orbiter’s dorsal surface. ...
I was going to ask why NASA is so much more careful about checking the tiles than they ever were until Columbia's loss OTL, then thought vaguely that there had been tests, such as a dummy Orbiter hull or scale model, that lost a lot of tiles. But then...
Reentry was a bit hairier--though the Shuttle returned to Kennedy Space Center in good shape, the vehicle’s actual performance at hypersonic velocities differed from that predicted on the ground. ...
So, apparently no dummy hulls of any scale had been tested live.

Why the extra concern about tile integrity versus OTL then?
...Instead, Glushko envisioned a new, modular launch system built on a common series of kerosene-oxygen tanks and engines that could put payloads as small as 30 tonnes and as large as 250 tonnes. The new system would be fully expendable, and its end goal would be a Soviet conquest of the lunar beachhead abandoned by the Americans.
Is this basically a ker-lox adaption of Chelomei's vision of modular tank hypergolics? I used to declaim that this would be impossible since oxygen tanks cannot be modular units the way hypergolic oxidant tanks can be, due to LOX being cryogenic. But then I started to pay attention to the details of the Saturn 1 first stage, which flooded half of the eight "Redstone" gauge outer tanks with LOX (along with the "Juno" sized central tank, leaving 4 70 inch Redstone style tanks for the fuel) and realized that if that could work, so could Chelomei style modular LOX tanks. Proton being the "small" element in Chelomei's visionary system based on near-uniform tank units that could be shipped over Soviet railroads, and its payload goal being close to 30 tons, I wonder if Glushko is proposing a ker-lox super-Proton with ganged fuel and LOX tanks instead of integral tanks here, and aiming to build up to monster sizes as Chelomei wanted with early UR-700 and -900 designs--if indeed Glushko's big rockets are in fact essentially the same as Chelomei's later ker-lox conversions?
...Though the Lifter’s low cost-per-flight was deemed feasible by the Soviet Academy of Sciences, such cost savings were not quite as meaningful in the Soviet command economy as they were in the American market economy. The high flight rate the Americans forecasted, however, was far more interesting to Soviet analysts. The weekly flight rates proposed for the Space Lifter and the monthly Orbiter missions indicated that the United States planned to increase the mass it sent to Low Earth Orbit by an order of magnitude, and to return some 100 tonnes to Earth from space every year. The only identifiable reason for such a massive increase in capability would be a massive military undertaking--a new space-based weapons system, or an advanced anti-missile defense system.
Well, well I wasn't expecting such a literal carryover from OTL of Soviet reactions to STS!

It is humorous, and maybe worth a little skepticism, that the fact that the ATL STS is "right side up" and therefore very high launch rates lifting very high payloads annually is in fact feasible, is the very reason the Soviets suspect US intentions here, whereas OTL their well justified debunking of our grandiose claims for payload capacity led them to exactly the same conclusions--"The Yankees are lying and up to no good, but perhaps they know what they are doing so we'd better do much the same, no matter the cost!"

Again a lot here depends on the perceived relationship of the USAF to STS. OTL it was a very strong one and this fact was no secret; as I said above I have lost track of when USAF got entangled in Lifter. Of course if there were no talk at the Pentagon whatsoever of any military branch adopting Lifter, by desire or by White House fiat, the Soviets might still assume NASA programs were really just a cover for US military development anyway. And it is reasonable there is some overlap; even if the Air Force does not want Lifter they definitely want some Blue Orbiters (and must therefore have Lifter too since nothing else we have would launch the Orbiter).


...The Orbiter’s unique ability to maneuver in the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds also raised troubling questions about the military applications of such a vehicle--specifically, the ability of a hypersonic orbital airplane to dive down onto the USSR from the south, drop a thermonuclear payload, and then return to its launch site, having managed a sneak attack that escaped the notice of the Soviet early warning satellite system.
OTL I gather that the Soviets did not jump to such paranoid conclusions entirely on their own, though they conceivably may have--that in fact USAF officers, whether sincerely or motivated by political fiat to explain their involvement in STS, did speculate on some very hair-raising scenarios for using Shuttle to move aggressively against the Russkies. While I don't recall any Americans actually suggesting the stealthy bomb run scenario, I do recall a scheme to intercept and seize Soviet satellites, as an example of a mission that would require large cross-range so an Orbiter launched from Vandenberg could return to base within one orbit, before the Soviets could confirm their satellite had gone missing. With schemes like that coming from the Pentagon I think maybe they had reason to feel paranoid, especially because the economic case of our version of STS was so absurd on the face of it. I suspect a certain amount of these alarming and piratical scenarios were put out by officers who knew better--either that they were proposing something very technically dubious, or if technically feasible, clearly behavior no President not hellbent on starting a war immediately anyway would dare authorize, and knowing there was not a chance in hell that Orbiter was any good for these harebrained plans, uttered them only to scare Ivan. Trash talk in other words.

In your ATL, you have no hint of this macho tomfoolery happening here and yet have the Russians reacting in precisely the same paranoid fashion. Should I infer the trash talk to scare Ivan is still happening here but would not be referenced in the ATL "sources" you are "quoting" because the authors either don't know or don't care about it, just as many OTL would not mention it? Or is it all just of case of "Ivan is insanely paranoid by nature?"

Surely the notion of stealth bombardment of the Kremlin is bizarre and silly, in that to be a war winner in the sense of protecting the USA (never mind Europe and other allies) from Soviet retaliation we'd have to simultaneously hit thousands of targets with no warning; we just had the 5 Orbiters, never 5 at one time in fact, and no capability to launch all of them at the same time or even within a month of each other. In your ATL it is entirely conceivable to me that eventually there might be an order of magnitude more Lifters operational at one time in the USA, but even three or four dozen ATL Orbiters, or even dumbed-down bomber versions retaining the hull shape and TPS and maneuvering margin, but gutting out the crew sections for storage of half a dozen or so multiply targeted rocket-driven warheads, could at most deliver a few hundred, and in one overwhelming strike only if all of them were previously placed in orbit at once. And while several hundred megaton nukes would accomplish mass murder of Soviet citizens (and presumably all across the Warsaw Pact) on a scale Hitler could only dream of, it would not be enough to knock out Soviet counterstrike capability, enough to anyway hit us with a tenth or so of their arsenal--not enough to wreck our entire military system, but plenty to retaliate in the form of killing off most of our population. More likely I think considerably more Soviet block retaliation capability than that would survive and basically the planet bombs itself into the Stone Age, if we attempted such a wacky scheme. Assuming it works perfectly; imperfectly, and only a few dozen key Soviet sites would be taken out before the Russians could launch a full, largely undecorated counterstrike.

Therefore if the Russians really believed we were actually considering developing the Shuttle just to do this, that would indeed have been crazy paranoid of them, nor would it be rational for them to think the best way to balance the scales would be to develop their own Shuttle.

It does make sense to me that while dismissing that particular Jack D Ripper scenario, they might gloomily reflect they might not have guessed the real reason the Air Force wanted Orbiter and therefore needed a few of their own to play around with.
...Each Groza rocket was based on a first-stage vehicle called Raskat (“Thunderbolt”, literally “Peal of Thunder”), a 3.9-meter-diameter, 40-meter-length booster with a new, phenomenally powerful engine--the RD-170, an oxidizer-rich staged-combustion-cycle motor.
Why oxidizer rich? As you point out farther on, it caused them grief. As I understand it, mathematically the best ISP outcomes generally come from going fuel rich, the extreme case being hydrogen-LOX where the best theoretical ISP is with oxygen in a 4:1 mass ratio to hydrogen--whereas to be oxygen rich it would be more than 8:1. (Due to hydrogen's low density it is not practical to go for 4:1 ratios in real world engines, 6:1 being much more typical).

So what advantage did Glushko dream he would accomplish? I suppose partially, taking advantage of the fairly high density of LOX, to achieve lower ratios of tank size to propellant mass? Even so, would that really offset the worsened ISP?
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Most comments have focused on the European program. I just wonder this--are Keyser et al meanwhile skulking about with OTRAG more or less as OTL? As I remember it, his heyday, such as it was, was precisely when STS had launched and was being tested, but before it started demonstrating its severe limits so painfully. By the time Challenger raised the question of whether our "expensive but reusable" approach was smart versus "expendable but cheap" rockets that was his schtick, he himself had, between serious technical skepticism about his rocket design approach, and his incredibly politically dubious choices about national partnerships, largely discredited himself. In the ATL if he behaves the same way, presumably OTRAG would exhaust its credibility all the sooner if STS is even partially successful.

I don't see any cause and effect chain that would tend to make Keyser rethink either his technical or geopolitical choices, so I suppose presuming OTRAG develops as it would have OTL if the STS system had stronger logic supporting it (that is to say, even more marginally) makes it even more of a quaint footnote in astronautical history, and beneath comment.
 
That explanation is, in a few words, "the 1970s were a different time." Lifter is supposed to be a reliable enough vehicle that it just doesn't explode on the pad. It is, after all, an S-IC with wings--and that stage didn't give NASA much trouble in flight. Much as OTL NASA didn't give much thought to abort options, TTL NASA also doesn't design out all the "black zones."

Coincidentally, I found this picture the day after that chapter went up, which seems to verify that NASA was quite alright sandwiching crew between rocket stages with no obvious means of escape in those days:

OK, then. You certainly don't have to find obscure examples--just pointing at the OTL Orbiter's essentially nonexistent options for crew survival should anything major go wrong is enough to hammer this point home.

Here's the weird and dubious thing though--right or wrong, in your ATL NASA goes a whole lot farther than they considered doing OTL, investing in measures to enable survival. They might have argued that if ejection seats were good enough for Gemini (I'd say they clearly weren't and we were just lucky that was not horribly demonstrated, but then again it was another time, and it was a limited-run program that could afford to cut some corners, not meant to be a decades-lasting workhorse) then surely they'd be good enough for the Lifter crew. But no, they went ahead and made the moderately costly sacrifice to develop an ejectable flight deck capsule that I suspect would indeed save the lives of the crew in every likely emergency contingency. And on the Orbiter, they go ahead and install several emergency backup high thrust liquid engines. As we know, extra weight on the first stage, or other weights that are ejected long before the final stage completes its burn, costs only a fraction of the payload hit that the same weight installed to remain there until burnout costs--the latter case the cost is 1:1; the burnout mass is fixed. Yet they decided to install a fair number of tons of liquid fuel pumped engines that they devoutly hope will never ever be used, and yet leave them installed to detract not only from useful mass placed in orbit, but to multiply the necessary load of OMS propellant to achieve a given delta-V in space, and take up down mass capacity as well. I'd have thought simply developing a bigger version of the Mercury/Apollo style solid fuel emergency escape rockets on a tower above the Orbiter would be the more rational choice, since it would be ejected around the time of Lifter burnout and thus enable the second stage to put more mass into orbit, and in orbit the Orbiter would not be burdened by a LES system no longer necessary. It seems a small price of expendable stuff to add to the second stage, and more surefire too. Yet, y'all have the designers going with the permanently installed liquid LES engines instead.

So it seems that in your ATL, just as I questioned why the first Orbiter mission included a camera check of the tiles before turning to other business, the designers and program directors are in fact bit by the safety bug, at least as much as the Mercury and Apollo designers were. It is reasonable to say the old rockets (Gemini being in some senses more advanced than Apollo, being a later authorized program with design frozen later) had escape systems because the early 60s were a few short years after Vanguard after Vanguard, Corona after Corona, blowing up on the pad, and even the Atlas rockets of Mercury had had more blowups than successful launches when John Glenn was launched into orbit atop one. Already with Gemini they seem to have become more confident the rocket really probably would not blow up, and as you say, the next generation was supposed to be safe as a passenger jet--no airline I know of gives jet passengers a parachute each. The plane won't crash, and if some do, well they are still statistically safer than automobiles!

So--if this was their attitude, why make the costly investment of any sort of LES on Orbiter, when it was not done OTL at all, not to speak of anyway? And if the Orbiter crews are not afraid to launch without a safety net, don't the Lifter crews have an easier time of it? Why bother than with the ejectable flight deck? Just omit it since the new craft is deemed so safe!

For whatever reason, your ATL designers do not agree. They make considerable sacrifice, especially with the Orbiter, to install items permanently that are so much considerable dead weight if things go nominally. They have a magnificent safety feature in the ejectable Lifter cabin--surely only costing a fraction of its total added mass to the payload, but nevertheless posing considerable costs all the same.

So--since these designers, unlike the culture you cite and give examples of while the painful contemplation of OTL's Orbiter design merely reinforces the point more strongly still, are in fact seriously considering serious limits on actual useful payload or alternatively, kick up the necessary added propellant and probably engine thrust as well.

These steps, taken in your ATL, are the costly ones, and they take all of them thus multiplying the costs of each further.

In this context, yes I think it is very strange that they overlook a phase of launch lasting 5 or 6 seconds, or uncharacteristically (in your TL if not OTL) assign the Lifter crews' fate to God's mercy in that time frame. And doubly if not quadruply strangely, overlook that the otherwise certain deaths of the pair in that case can be prevented by simply turning the Lifter stage around.

Note also that, having designed in the admirable escape capsule, which by the bizarre and avoidable decision to turn the dorsal surface of the Lifter to the tower becomes instead a suicide button during those initial 6 seconds or so, and matching it with a serviceable if expensive LES in the Orbiter, the use of the latter while the former is negated by the nearby tower seals the doom of the Lifter crew. If some crackup or shimmy of the Lifter boost at say 3 seconds past release triggers the automatic escape mode of the Orbiter, the blast of exhaust from it will hit the second stage head on and shatter it, surely igniting the fuel in it and thus detonating it literally in the faces of the helpless Lifter astronauts.

What to do then? One might consider delaying the Orbiter LES until the Lifter capsule is clear to blast loose, saving all crew--if that is the cascading catastrophe that the first of the pair triggers the escape mode holds off long enough to leave the two crews alive that long!

Note also that while the Lifter capsule clears the top of the tower in just 5 or 6 seconds into the launch on a nominal ascent, that is not true if say the breakdown involves the failure of one or more Lifter engines-in that case the thrust is inadequate to maintain the schedule, indeed may be less than the weight it has to lift and the whole stack starts to fall and topple. In this case, the dorsally oriented Lifter crew is simply doomed.

So, the Orbiter escape system might be given priority, on the basis of the crew there being larger than the two-member Lifter crew, and what is a suicide button on the Lifter becomes the murder button on the Orbiter--its escape system becoming the proximate if not sole cause of the deaths of their comrade astronauts below them.

If there were no escape systems whatsoever for either module, payloads would be higher. That is the outcome we'd expect of the gung-ho attitude you cite here. Putting one on the Orbiter actually compounds the threat to the crew on the Lifter. Having designed two good systems for each, I'd think someone would notice early on, before the design is frozen, that this ugly contingency of killing two to save five or more is being designed in--but could be quite simply sidestepped by the simple and low to no cost expedient of turning the Lifter stage around.

In an ATL with no emergency systems designed in whatsoever, the orientation makes no difference. In one where they have made big sacrifices to have some, however, it is egregiously stupid to simply overlook it, and insanely inconsistent to shrug off the greatly compounded risk to the Lifter pilots when such an obvious solution is wide open and staring the designers in the face.
 

Archibald

Banned
Lifter vs Ariane, I like it. We do know (with perfect hindsight) that comsats grew from 1 mt to 7 mt between 1970 and 2010.
http://emarketalerts.forecast1.com/mic/abstract.cfm?recno=161635
I wonder if tripple launches might be feasible. 21 tons to GTO, now that would be a performance (Falcon 9 Heavy can your hear me ??!! :p ) .
I can see a Centaur mated to the S-IVB with a large fairing, the whole thing attached to the lifter. I wonder if the lifter being manned could be a misadvantage against Ariane, maybe you could have an automated variant with the cockpit gone, that would save a helluva lot of weight.

More generally, what excites me ITTL is a (partially) manned launch system competing with a classic unmanned ELV.
OTL the piloted shuttle was all wrong for satellite delivery, risking unnecessary crews and finally taking a beating from Ariane.
ITTL the lifter may be different.
 
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Lifter vs Ariane, I like it. We do know (with perfect hindsight) that comsats grew from 1 mt to 7 mt between 1970 and 2010.
http://emarketalerts.forecast1.com/mic/abstract.cfm?recno=161635
I wonder if tripple launches might be feasible. 21 tons to GTO, now that would be a performance (Falcon 9 Heavy can your hear me ??!! :p ) .
I can see a Centaur mated to the S-IVB with a large fairing, the whole thing attached to the lifter. I wonder if the lifter being manned could be a misadvantage against Ariane, maybe you could have an automated variant with the cockpit gone, that would save a helluva lot of weight.

More generally, what excites me ITTL is a (partially) manned launch system competing with a classic unmanned ELV.
OTL the piloted shuttle was all wrong for satellite delivery, risking unnecessary crews and finally taking a beating from Ariane.
ITTL the lifter may be different.

Whether Lifter is capable of launching much bigger payloads than the current setup of upper stages allows is a question of whether its designers were focused very narrowly on enabling just the planned first phase Orbiter missions, or whether they allowed margin in the structural design for much heavier upper stages. In terms of the basic physics, it seems clear to me now that the upper limit is set by reaching the same apogee, 109 km or close to it, with a transverse velocity already lowered to 1200 m/sec without any propellant ballasting brake maneuver. I would think that Lifter as is could do that; the burn would involve a slower and steeper ascent to reach about the same separation altitude with the same ascent velocity at cutoff, but with the transverse component cut in half. As for structural issues, the dead weight of the upper stack on the pad when fully loaded would be greater, but under thrust the stresses would be similar since the Lifter engines are delivering the same thrust regardless; a greater component of it would be compression force on the Lifter near cutoff since the larger upper stage mass would be resisting the thrust, thus net acceleration is lower. It is a question of whether Lifter is stressed for this maximal compression force or not. If it is, it should bear the static weight of the bigger upper stack on the pad quite handily.

The question of whether Ariane would be competitive at all depends heavily on US government policy in the 1980s. Since the authors are clearly minimizing butterflies in the world at large (the only one mentioned so far being Alabama standing for Carter in the 1980 election, a direct result of Lifter's earlier success than OTL STS) presumably Ronald Reagan will be president until 1989 and he will attempt his radical revisions of US policy in his early first term. That raises all sorts of question marks about what regime will be handling commercial Lifter flights. At one end of the spectrum, the probably not Reagan policy end, NASA as a US Government agency offers tickets of so many tons to such and such an orbit, and using US taxpayer budgeted funds maintains the infrastructure, acquires the second and orbital third stages, and any profits from the sales of slots to orbit go into the US Treasury as surplus revenues, to be budgeted by Congress as they see fit. NASA then has no direct incentive to lower costs, but may well be directed to offer tickets at cost or even lower prices, the US taxpayer thus subsidizing orbital payloads. Or some kind of intermediate operation, say that NASA is mandated to operate Lifter services on a quasi-profit basis, being allowed to bank surplus revenue into a trust fund that issues annuities to supplement NASA budget generally, or just the Lifter operation, the goal being to spin off the Lifter division to operate on revenues and allow it to expand or contract based on market earnings, while remaining USG property. Or Reagan might want to go very extreme in his privatizing, market-worshiping ideology and sell off the Lifter operation completely to a private consortium.

The more Lifter operations must operate on a free-standing profit basis, the more constrained they'd be by market considerations--both the market, existing and potentially developable, for orbital launches, but also the labor market comprising the operational costs. Such an operation could not set its prices too low.

A government operation with no pretense at being a profitable enterprise on the other hand could set prices very low and suck all the oxygen out of global competition, making the price to orbit a bit of a shell game, with the US taxpayer subsidizing the private interests in orbit. This could be very very bad for Ariane!
 

Archibald

Banned
A government operation with no pretense at being a profitable enterprise on the other hand could set prices very low and suck all the oxygen out of global competition, making the price to orbit a bit of a shell game, with the US taxpayer subsidizing the private interests in orbit. This could be very very bad for Ariane!

Didn't that just happened OTL, when the U.S government artificially cut / set shuttle launch prices to $10 million ? (when $500 million + was closer from the truth).
That was cancelled August 15, 1986 after STS-51L by the Reagan administration.
https://www.reaganlibrary.archives.gov/archives/speeches/1986/081586f.htm

Wonder is such "epiphany" will happen ITTL. Obviously STS-51L has been erased from existence, so no way it happens the same.

The bottom line is
"How do you make a small fortune in space?" "You start out with a big one"
For a long time the only space that earned money was comsats - and their launches. But there are so few of them, and expendable chemical ELVs being what they are, it is not a profitable business like airlines.

Truth be told, both shuttle and Ariane were heavily government subsided. So maybe all those stories about launch prices are foul play or for dupes.

My gut feeling - even as a Frenchman :p I'll be glad to see the Lifter kick Ariane arse ITTL not only because it is piloted but more generally because it is an interesting try at something entirely different from the usual ELV.
 
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When we last looked it seemed the Air Force was connected to Lifter only via a desire to have some Blue Orbiters, and would be allowed to wait and see how Lifter economics worked out for NASA before being pressured to go with Lifter routinely. And so this current climate is a Carter era decision, presumably based on projected economics Nixon and Ford were willing to allow to be proven before backing DoD and NSRO into this corner.

Essentially, yes. The USAF finds the Lifter cost estimates reasonable enough to start down-selecting to it.

I wanted to comment on the Lifter using hydrogen peroxide thrusters too. This seemed strange to me. Everyone knows I hate hypergolics, but these are what the US space program settled on for maneuvering thrusters long before, used in Mercury, Gemini and Apollo. The scale of the Lifter is much greater than even an Apollo stack of course, only the OTL Orbiter compares and even that is smaller than the hundreds of tons and large linear scales involved in turning the Lifter end to end in vacuum and free fall. A straightforward evolution of off the shelf Apollo and other legacy NASA and USAF hardware would point toward hypergolic thrusters, perhaps related more to such engines as the Apollo SM main engine or better yet, the LM descent stage engine. Pressure fed, able to throttle down to low thrusts via operating in burst mode, such engines would be what I would expect. What space craft did the American designers have experience with using, I suppose, catalyzed pressure fed HTHP monopropellant? Why choose that for the Lifter instead of hypergolics?

Certainly I know of the bad experience of the reentering Apollo CM from Apollo-Soyuz, in which apparently some sort of atmospheric intake combined with a maneuvering thruster propellant leak to bring either the oxidant or hydrazine into the cabin, causing the astronauts severe problems. But an Apollo capsule is a very tight, compact environment compared to the Lifter, whose size is more like a Jumbo jet. Surely the crew cabin would be separated by many meters of hard vacuum from hypergolic fuel tanks and lines and the thrusters themselves. OTL of course the Orbiter stuck with hypergolic thrusters, as does the ATL Orbiter it seems. Hypergolic storage surely poses a bigger hazard in the relatively smaller and compact Orbiter than in the Lifter. Was there a concern that in the rougher aerodynamic environment the Lifter stays closer to, pairs of leaks might lead to explosions? Just as I have perhaps an extreme aversion to hypergolics, I am perhaps too sanguine about hydrogen peroxide--which in some chemical classifications is analogous to the nitrogen based oxidant I fear and despise so much. I'd much rather fly with peroxide myself, but I believe we've learned a few tricks about handling it that were not widely known in the USA in the early 1970s. One is to chill the stuff to near freezing, meaning it is best handled as a weakly cryogenic fluid rather than regarding as "room temperature storable." Another is that it is apparently, and somewhat counterintuitively, more stable when very highly purified than mixed with significant amounts of water--99.999 test is more stable than 99, and more stable still than 90 percent test.

While HTHP is much less toxic than either normal component of hypergolic mixes, it is still harmful enough if ingested or even touching skin--in high concentration it will kill crew in a confined space just as dead in the short run; it is in the long run, after a release into the environment, that it proves far less cumulatively toxic. In terms of crew safety in a confined space, it is arguably just as bad as hydrazine. In terms of explosion hazard--even the two components of hypergolic systems are not themselves highly likely to blow up all alone without a catalyst. Hydrogen peroxide is so prone to degenerate and thus build up explosive pressures that even water molecules apparently act as catalysts!

As a monopropellant, HTHP might be highly competitive with other monopropellants, but its ISP is far inferior to hypergolic mixes, which require no catalyst and burn very reliably when properly metered together. Therefore one would need considerably greater masses of HTHP to provide the same moment control budget.

X-15 used peroxide for maneuvering, as did some smaller rocket and jet test vehicles. Compared to hydrazine and N2O4, it's easier to handle on the ground, so it was chosen for its marginally easier handling.

Kerosene was considered for a bipropellant RTS, but ruled out as an unnecessary failure point--Lifter has payload to spare, so it was deemed better to eliminate an entire fuel system than to save a few hundred kilos/several tonnes. It's also much less mature in the US than monoprop--and even the British, who built main engines for it, didn't use it for RCS.

I was going to ask why NASA is so much more careful about checking the tiles than they ever were until Columbia's loss OTL, then thought vaguely that there had been tests, such as a dummy Orbiter hull or scale model, that lost a lot of tiles. But then...

So, apparently no dummy hulls of any scale had been tested live.

Why the extra concern about tile integrity versus OTL then?

Essentially, because Shuttle is more explicitly a test article ITTL. Verifying that a tile-based system works is part of the point, so on at least the first few flights, the extra effort is made.

OTL I gather that the Soviets did not jump to such paranoid conclusions entirely on their own, though they conceivably may have--that in fact USAF officers, whether sincerely or motivated by political fiat to explain their involvement in STS, did speculate on some very hair-raising scenarios for using Shuttle to move aggressively against the Russkies. While I don't recall any Americans actually suggesting the stealthy bomb run scenario, I do recall a scheme to intercept and seize Soviet satellites, as an example of a mission that would require large cross-range so an Orbiter launched from Vandenberg could return to base within one orbit, before the Soviets could confirm their satellite had gone missing. With schemes like that coming from the Pentagon I think maybe they had reason to feel paranoid, especially because the economic case of our version of STS was so absurd on the face of it. I suspect a certain amount of these alarming and piratical scenarios were put out by officers who knew better--either that they were proposing something very technically dubious, or if technically feasible, clearly behavior no President not hellbent on starting a war immediately anyway would dare authorize, and knowing there was not a chance in hell that Orbiter was any good for these harebrained plans, uttered them only to scare Ivan. Trash talk in other words.

In your ATL, you have no hint of this macho tomfoolery happening here and yet have the Russians reacting in precisely the same paranoid fashion. Should I infer the trash talk to scare Ivan is still happening here but would not be referenced in the ATL "sources" you are "quoting" because the authors either don't know or don't care about it, just as many OTL would not mention it? Or is it all just of case of "Ivan is insanely paranoid by nature?"

Surely the notion of stealth bombardment of the Kremlin is bizarre and silly, in that to be a war winner in the sense of protecting the USA (never mind Europe and other allies) from Soviet retaliation we'd have to simultaneously hit thousands of targets with no warning; we just had the 5 Orbiters, never 5 at one time in fact, and no capability to launch all of them at the same time or even within a month of each other. In your ATL it is entirely conceivable to me that eventually there might be an order of magnitude more Lifters operational at one time in the USA, but even three or four dozen ATL Orbiters, or even dumbed-down bomber versions retaining the hull shape and TPS and maneuvering margin, but gutting out the crew sections for storage of half a dozen or so multiply targeted rocket-driven warheads, could at most deliver a few hundred, and in one overwhelming strike only if all of them were previously placed in orbit at once. And while several hundred megaton nukes would accomplish mass murder of Soviet citizens (and presumably all across the Warsaw Pact) on a scale Hitler could only dream of, it would not be enough to knock out Soviet counterstrike capability, enough to anyway hit us with a tenth or so of their arsenal--not enough to wreck our entire military system, but plenty to retaliate in the form of killing off most of our population. More likely I think considerably more Soviet block retaliation capability than that would survive and basically the planet bombs itself into the Stone Age, if we attempted such a wacky scheme. Assuming it works perfectly; imperfectly, and only a few dozen key Soviet sites would be taken out before the Russians could launch a full, largely undecorated counterstrike.

Therefore if the Russians really believed we were actually considering developing the Shuttle just to do this, that would indeed have been crazy paranoid of them, nor would it be rational for them to think the best way to balance the scales would be to develop their own Shuttle.

Well, it's not a big leap for the Russians to make--they themselves invented a missile designed to go into orbit before diving down on the US from the south. That the Americans would duplicate the ability in a less-innocuous package is just common sense.

Most comments have focused on the European program. I just wonder this--are Keyser et al meanwhile skulking about with OTRAG more or less as OTL? As I remember it, his heyday, such as it was, was precisely when STS had launched and was being tested, but before it started demonstrating its severe limits so painfully. By the time Challenger raised the question of whether our "expensive but reusable" approach was smart versus "expendable but cheap" rockets that was his schtick, he himself had, between serious technical skepticism about his rocket design approach, and his incredibly politically dubious choices about national partnerships, largely discredited himself. In the ATL if he behaves the same way, presumably OTRAG would exhaust its credibility all the sooner if STS is even partially successful.

I don't see any cause and effect chain that would tend to make Keyser rethink either his technical or geopolitical choices, so I suppose presuming OTRAG develops as it would have OTL if the STS system had stronger logic supporting it (that is to say, even more marginally) makes it even more of a quaint footnote in astronautical history, and beneath comment.

Essentially, yes. However, the relative success of reusability means that other European ideas will have their time to shine...

OK, then. You certainly don't have to find obscure examples--just pointing at the OTL Orbiter's essentially nonexistent options for crew survival should anything major go wrong is enough to hammer this point home.

Here's the weird and dubious thing though--right or wrong, in your ATL NASA goes a whole lot farther than they considered doing OTL, investing in measures to enable survival. They might have argued that if ejection seats were good enough for Gemini (I'd say they clearly weren't and we were just lucky that was not horribly demonstrated, but then again it was another time, and it was a limited-run program that could afford to cut some corners, not meant to be a decades-lasting workhorse) then surely they'd be good enough for the Lifter crew. But no, they went ahead and made the moderately costly sacrifice to develop an ejectable flight deck capsule that I suspect would indeed save the lives of the crew in every likely emergency contingency. And on the Orbiter, they go ahead and install several emergency backup high thrust liquid engines. As we know, extra weight on the first stage, or other weights that are ejected long before the final stage completes its burn, costs only a fraction of the payload hit that the same weight installed to remain there until burnout costs--the latter case the cost is 1:1; the burnout mass is fixed. Yet they decided to install a fair number of tons of liquid fuel pumped engines that they devoutly hope will never ever be used, and yet leave them installed to detract not only from useful mass placed in orbit, but to multiply the necessary load of OMS propellant to achieve a given delta-V in space, and take up down mass capacity as well. I'd have thought simply developing a bigger version of the Mercury/Apollo style solid fuel emergency escape rockets on a tower above the Orbiter would be the more rational choice, since it would be ejected around the time of Lifter burnout and thus enable the second stage to put more mass into orbit, and in orbit the Orbiter would not be burdened by a LES system no longer necessary. It seems a small price of expendable stuff to add to the second stage, and more surefire too. Yet, y'all have the designers going with the permanently installed liquid LES engines instead.

So it seems that in your ATL, just as I questioned why the first Orbiter mission included a camera check of the tiles before turning to other business, the designers and program directors are in fact bit by the safety bug, at least as much as the Mercury and Apollo designers were. It is reasonable to say the old rockets (Gemini being in some senses more advanced than Apollo, being a later authorized program with design frozen later) had escape systems because the early 60s were a few short years after Vanguard after Vanguard, Corona after Corona, blowing up on the pad, and even the Atlas rockets of Mercury had had more blowups than successful launches when John Glenn was launched into orbit atop one. Already with Gemini they seem to have become more confident the rocket really probably would not blow up, and as you say, the next generation was supposed to be safe as a passenger jet--no airline I know of gives jet passengers a parachute each. The plane won't crash, and if some do, well they are still statistically safer than automobiles!

So--if this was their attitude, why make the costly investment of any sort of LES on Orbiter, when it was not done OTL at all, not to speak of anyway? And if the Orbiter crews are not afraid to launch without a safety net, don't the Lifter crews have an easier time of it? Why bother than with the ejectable flight deck? Just omit it since the new craft is deemed so safe!

For whatever reason, your ATL designers do not agree. They make considerable sacrifice, especially with the Orbiter, to install items permanently that are so much considerable dead weight if things go nominally. They have a magnificent safety feature in the ejectable Lifter cabin--surely only costing a fraction of its total added mass to the payload, but nevertheless posing considerable costs all the same.

An integrated LAS has a number of advantages over disposable towers--greater maneuvering capability on-orbit is one. Lower operating costs is another--you don't throw a tower away on every flight.

In this context, yes I think it is very strange that they overlook a phase of launch lasting 5 or 6 seconds, or uncharacteristically (in your TL if not OTL) assign the Lifter crews' fate to God's mercy in that time frame. And doubly if not quadruply strangely, overlook that the otherwise certain deaths of the pair in that case can be prevented by simply turning the Lifter stage around.

Note also that, having designed in the admirable escape capsule, which by the bizarre and avoidable decision to turn the dorsal surface of the Lifter to the tower becomes instead a suicide button during those initial 6 seconds or so, and matching it with a serviceable if expensive LES in the Orbiter, the use of the latter while the former is negated by the nearby tower seals the doom of the Lifter crew. If some crackup or shimmy of the Lifter boost at say 3 seconds past release triggers the automatic escape mode of the Orbiter, the blast of exhaust from it will hit the second stage head on and shatter it, surely igniting the fuel in it and thus detonating it literally in the faces of the helpless Lifter astronauts.
...

In an ATL with no emergency systems designed in whatsoever, the orientation makes no difference. In one where they have made big sacrifices to have some, however, it is egregiously stupid to simply overlook it, and insanely inconsistent to shrug off the greatly compounded risk to the Lifter pilots when such an obvious solution is wide open and staring the designers in the face.

Essentially, it comes down to what risk they deem most likely. The spacecraft engines failing to restart in-flight, leaving them plunging into the atmosphere far faster than they should? Severe pogo oscillations in-flight? Unexpected hypersonic flight phenomena? All are considered far more likely than a pad failure of a Saturn V first stage--and, after all, it'll be held down until all five engines are verified to be operating nominally, so the chances of a failure in the first four seconds of flight is just deemed that small. Small enough that the cabin isn't actually designed for pad abort. That it can be used for abort in most cases is a nice bonus, but it's really designed to provide assurance in the more unknown hypersonic flight regime. Indeed, if a person ITTL were to look at Boeing documentation from the 1960s and the early part of the Space Shuttle Decision process, he would find that the escape pod was in fact added in somewhat late in the design process, to soothe concerns about hypersonic failure. The original Lifter design lacked an escape pod at all!
 
Chapter 7: Max-Q
“If you have a 65,000-lb manned scientific laboratory to place in low Earth orbit, then the Lifter is just the job. But if you have a 1,000-lb communications satellite bound for stationary orbit (and paid for by the shareholders), a good old-fashioned rocket will do the job at half the cost.”

Chapter 7: Max-Q

Twenty seconds after liftoff, the stack climbed into the skies above Florida. As the delta-winged stack climbed, the Earth made one last effort to hold it back. Its own speed now conspired against it. As the rocket pushed its way through Earth’s thick atmosphere, breaking the speed of sound and leaving its own roar behind, it squeezed the air in front of it far above ambient pressure. Constitution’s five F-1B engines automatically throttled back as the stack approached the region where the atmosphere and its speed would produce Max-Q: the peak of aerodynamic stresses on the rocket. Throttling back slowed the ascent, introducing losses just as drag increased, but the larger worry was the forces on the Lifter and the Orbiter as the dynamic pressure climbed to more than three times that at sea level. The stack shook as the atmosphere buffeted the rocket.

The pressure was intense, and every eye at mission control watched the data for any sign of failure in these critical moments. As the stack pushed closer to Max-Q, the pressure was enough to condense water from vapor to liquid, forming opaque discs around the base of the Orbiter and alongside its control surfaces. Briefly, the Orbiter once again vanished from the Lifter crew’s view as a cloud developed around its base, around the complex interface between its aft end and the S-IVC. For the complete Space Transportation System, this was a moment of truth: would the models developed in aerodynamic trials on the ground hold through the test of reality?

The pressure data in the telemetry and the gauges of the stack’s two cockpits climbed, then steadied...and then finally began to drop. The shock cloud evaporated, and seemingly instantly the ride smoothed out. With more than half the mass of Earth’s blanket of air behind them, Constitution’s engines once again spun up to full power.

“Houston, Constitution,” John Young called over the radio, ”Go at throttle up!!” The stack had cleared the test of Max-Q, the pressure was falling, and all systems remained nominal. Downrange, there was only the blue of the sky above, and the blue of the sea below. The stack cut through it like a knife, a delta-winged dart breaking trail for a tail of flame which now spread in the less dense air to several times the ship’s wingspan. Space lay ahead.


The official certification of the Space Lifter as “operational” came as a relief to the thousands of people both at NASA and at innumerable contractors who had poured almost a decade in turning the concept of a reusable space launch system from a dream of s-f magazine covers into a real, working system. The Space Lifter and the Space Shuttle were the first of a new breed of launchers designed to go to space not once but dozens of times, and to open up a new era of space development. The three operational RS-IC boosters had already demonstrated their reusability, with Independence and Constitution both having completed 8 orbital launch missions by the time STS-8 had returned from orbit. Endeavour’s came, of course, after that debut mission, with the orbiter returning to space next eight months later. The dreams of Von Braun and others of orbital ferries had been realized in some form. However, while the pressure of development abated, the pressure of the program’s own inertia and of the expectations of the newly “operational” system built up, and only raised the stakes. The moment of maximum program pressure still lay ahead. For STS to be a success, Shuttle and Lifter would have to prove that they could indeed not just fly repeatedly, but also cheaply, rapidly, and safely. While doing so they would be able to satisfy the needs of the many customers whose buy-in NASA had secured with promises about the Space Transportation System’s capabilities.

These promises had yielded an impressive backlog of missions for the Space Lifter. The first half of 1980 had already seen two completely commercially-driven missions using the Space Lifter’s Multiple Launch Adaptor to place payloads on their way to geostationary orbit. Following STS-8, there were two more such flights on the year’s manifest. As with the earlier missions, the payloads were undersized for the LIfter, even with multiple launch capacity, totalling less than a third of the vehicle’s geostationary transfer payload. Satellite buyers were still waiting to see if Lifter’s promised cost reductions and flight rate would be sustainable before purchasing any satellite which couldn’t be flown on other systems. Until then, Lifter’s true commercial potential would go unrealized. Still, every successful launch seemed to encourage two new bookings, and as Lifter racked up a successful record, customers we more willing to consider busses which were--technically--launchable on other launchers, even if those launchers were large enough and costly enough to be prohibitive as anything other than a fallback. Hughes had been doing booming business in their HS-376 bus, which had a mass of just over a ton at separation, and which had been the first commercial payload on the Space Lifter. By 1982, Hughes was working on a backlog of more than a dozen orders for the platform, and sold eight more in that year alone. They also took a risk, working with Intelsat to develop a new satellite bus which would mass more than four metric tons at separation. It was, at least nominally, capable of being lofted by alternate vehicles like Titan or evolved Ariane derivatives, but the main launch plan would be Space Lifter--which could accommodate two such monster satellites comfortably in the same flight. The satellite, and others like it offered by competing firms, were larger and more capable than any planned for geostationary use before--indeed, they could accommodate more mass in communications equipment and antenna than the entire fueled weight of some previous-generation commercial busses. Though Intelsat and Hughes had been the first to fully commit to such capable busses, they wouldn’t be the last, and some designers had tossed around the potential for what could be done with a full Lifter launch. Such build orders and discussions ultimately lead these builders and customers to turn up the pressure on NASA to deliver reliable launches on tempo, and Space Lifter would have to push on and deliver.

While the Space Lifter made regular launches of commercial and governmental payloads, the Space Shuttle orbiter was still in its test phase throughout 1981 and 1982. For all the that entire Space Transportation System had been declared officially “operational” after its first flight of Lifter and Glider together on STS-8, Shuttle itself had many more capabilities to shake down. The first flight had been focused on proving the basic functionality of the vehicle: reaching orbit, opening the payload bay doors, deploying the Canadarm robotic arm, and communicating with the ground via TDRS. However, the next Shuttle flight would take more than 6 months to occur, as engineers and technicians crawled all over and through Endeavour, reviewing the effects of the flight on her structures and systems. The information was filtered back to the construction bays at Palmdale, where two more Orbiters were taking shape. In the meantime, Endeavour took flight once more atop the booster Intrepid for the STS-12 mission.

The glider’s second mission was, in some ways, an extension of the first.readied again for her second flight. While STS-8 had stuck steadfast to the most basic capabilities of the orbiter, staying up for only a day, STS-12 was a more comprehensive test of the orbiter’s capabilities. The crew was still limited to the commander and co-pilot, but the mission duration was extended to a five-day flight--less than the shuttle’s maximum endurance even with a full crew, but offering much more time for the crew to test the ship’s systems. While Fred Haise and Richard Truly had tested the basic motion of the Canadarm on STS-8, and used it to conduct basic inspection of the ship’s thermal protection tiles, STS-12 saw Ken Mattingly execute several more detailed tests of the arm’s manipulator abilities in space, unlatching and repositioning a test payload within the shuttle’s cargo bay. That test payload wasn’t alone; while STS-8 had flown empty, the bay on STS-12 carried several scientific and engineering payloads. Most valuable were a bank of earth-sensing instrument pallets presented with a perfect chance to do their task by opening the shuttle’s cargo bay doors and rolling the bay to face the Earth, then being returned to the surface. Even her descent offered a chance to push the edges of the envelope STS-8 had carefully shied away from: while STS-8 had made an automated descent carefully plotted down the middle of every band engineers could design her for in the tempest of entry, Mattingly took a manual hand on the stick in STS-12’s descent, guiding Endeavour through more aggressive maneuvers as she returned to Earth. These twists and turns tested the spacecraft’s ability to maneuver at hypersonic speeds in the rarified upper atmosphere and exposing special sensor pods on the glider’s tails to new engineering regimes. Endeavour marked her return to Earth with a bang, leaving a cone of her lifting body shape’s characteristic sonic booms as she glided to a landing at the Cape, with Mattingly putting her down within three inches of the runway centerline. Though other reusable had flown to the edge of space, Endeavour now proved she was the first truly reusable orbital spacecraft.

These patterns of expanding envelopes followed on the next Shuttle mission, this time on STS-15 in July 1981. Endeavour rode to orbit on yet a third booster, the debut launch of the brand-new Liberty. The flight once again pushed the duration, extending to a full week in space, and for the first time active experiments were carried inside the Shuttle’s cabin for the crew to work on during the flight. However, that crew was still limited to two, and their time was constrained both by the pre-planned tests of the Shuttle’s orbital maneuvering abilities, as well as by a serious failure in the Shuttle’s hygiene facilities, and particularly its orbital toilet. Though the issues with the system’s flush apparatus lead to several colorful exchanges with engineers on the ground, the crew dealt with the other minor issues on the flight, such as overheating in one of the spacecraft’s auxiliary power units, and made a nominal return. Due to the vagaries of the Space Transportation System’s schedule, the final test mission came four months later. Though Endeavour was ready in three, a delayed communications satellite mission prevented the originally scheduled launch date from being met. This mission saw the Shuttle finish off a round of the Lifter fleet, flying on the newly refurbished Independence in early November. The STS-18 mission largely duplicated STS-15, matching it in duration and scope. However, for the first time, the orbiter deployed a payload--a small classified Department of Defense satellite--from the payload bay with the aid of the Canadarm. On her return, Endeavour conducted her most sweeping in-atmospheric maneuvers yet, continuing to prove that the orbiter had the cross-range capabilities required to return to land following a one-orbit mission to polar orbit from Vandenberg--a capability of interest not only to the DoD, but for a single-orbit “Once Around” abort of any mission to that orbit. Upon Endeavour’s latest return to Earth, President Reagan sought his own chance to leave a mark on the space shuttle program. While Carter had commemorated STS-8 by marking the operational status of the Space Lifter, Reagan now met Endeavour at Edwards Air Force Base in the President’s home state of California, and officially announced that the Space Shuttle was now operational--and with it the entire Space Transportation System.

Following its proving-out missions, the Space Shuttle faced the challenge of operational missions. While the glider’s development had been delayed, missions hoping to make use of the orbiter had been building up a manifest, and with Endeavour and her (yet unfinished) sisters commissioned as operational, the pressure to start accomplishing these task only increased. Over her next three missions, Endeavour put her capabilities to the test. Though the airlock had been cycled in space on test missions, STS-21 in February 1982 brought the first EVA from the Space Shuttle, enabled largely by the first four-person crew, featuring not just pilots by two mission specialists. The task they faced on this flight was another milestone: the deployment of the Long Duration Exposed Facility (LDEF) from the cargo bay. The LDEF was a pallet of experiments on biology, physics, and materials. Its launch on Endeavour was planned to be followed by return on another Shuttle mission in a year, with subsequent reflight of slightly altered platforms to follow. STS-21 was not just the largest crew ever launched by the United States, but the most diverse to that date. Copilot Guion Bluford became the first African American to fly in space (though not the first black man, a milestone claimed by the Soviet Union with the launch of Cuban cosmonaut Arnaldo Mendez in 1980), while Judith Resnick, as the mission specialist in charge of operating the Canadarm and deploying the LDEF, became the first American woman in space.

It is worth mentioning, in the context of the Cold War propaganda struggle, that the Soviet Union answered Resnick’s flight by launching the woman cosmonaut Svetlana Savitskaya on the Salyut 7 mission just weeks later. During her 3-week flight, Savitskaya became the first woman to perform an Extra-Vehicular Activity, and the second Soviet woman in space. Unfortunately, she would also be the last Soviet woman in space, as the Soviet cosmonaut corps was generally hostile to women cosmonauts. As Professor Anatoliy Grigoryev remarked after 1991, when he was named Director of the Institute of Medical and Biological Problems, “women are fragile and delicate creatures; that is why men should lead the way to distant planets and carry women there in their strong hands.”

Other Shuttle payloads required less handling: on STS-24 in June, Endeavour’s crew began their mission with the deployment of a small geostationary orbit satellite, attached to a compact solid rocket motor to perform apogee raise to a traditional GTO after deployment. This package, intended for satellites massing 600 kg or less, was an option developed by NASA for satellites which were too small to effectively utilize even a slot on the STS Multiple Launch Adaptor. While such payloads couldn’t justify even half the cost of an STS launch, these “fire-and-forget” GTO deployments from the Space Shuttle’s bay were subsidized by the NASA missions they flew with, and thus were available at lower cost--though with less opportunity. It was another example of the pressure NASA was under to develop ways to maximize revenue from the STS, both Lifter and Shuttle, and offer as much capability to American and international customers as possible.

The STS-24 primary mission objective was a demonstration of an even more important capability: the orbital repair of a damaged satellite to return it to operational service. The Solar Maximum Mission was a NASA scientific spacecraft which had been launched two years prior to study the sun and its cycles. However, just nine months into its mission, the failure of half the fuses in its attitude control system limited the spacecraft to operating just three of its seven primary instruments. However, the spacecraft had been designed with a grapple fixture for the Space Shuttle robotic arm, and STS-24 was assigned the task of directly intervening to restore the satellite to full function. The task was not simple: undocumented modifications in production not reflected in the plans meant that the shuttle could not use the original planned maneuvers to stabilize the spinning spacecraft. In the end, the only option was for an astronaut to grab onto the spacecraft’s delicate solar array and apply torque with his MMU to stabilize the spacecraft-risking tearing the array off entirely. The approach worked, though not without a failed attempt which almost doomed the spacecraft entirely before the ground and the astronauts could prepare for a second attempt. Once the satellite was stabilized and grappled, the mission proceeded more to plan. The entire suspect attitude control system was removed and replaced and upgrades were made to the spacecraft’s suite of scientific equipment, replacing one instrument and modifying another. By the end of the mission, not only had the spacecraft’s function been restored, but it was more capable than it had been at launch two years earlier. This example, carried out on a spacecraft only obliquely intended for in-space servicing, was a powerful demonstration for future spacecraft which might depend on such tending--and of the considerations for rendezvous, grapple, and orbital maintenance which must be accounted for. It was watched with interest not only by major programs within NASA which were built around this capacity, like the Large Space Telescope and Spacelab, but also by more classified projects under the aegis of the USAF.

While the Space Shuttle was proving out its basic capabilities, the Space Lifter was facing the pressure of demonstrating its full promised capacities as launch rate ramped up to meet the demands--and the optimistic projects NASA had made to sell the system’s development. In 1977, the Lifter’s booster had debuted with a single suborbital test. The next year had seen three more suborbital test flights, plus a qualification flight of an active upper stage and mass simulator. Topping this, 1979 had seen four orbital flights, then 1980 had seen six. Faced with increasing demand for launches from commercial satellite operators, the Department of Defense, and the addition of the Space Shuttle, subsequent years called for every year to exceed the previous year by at least two launches a year. A launch rate of one per month every month was called for no later than 1983. Considering the usual issues with operating any new program, not to mention the complexities of scheduling rockets around customer demand, contractors and suppliers, weather, and NASA’s own internal schedule priorities, this was ambitious, but the efforts to avoid slipping schedules were complicated by scheduled SLIP: the Spacecraft Lifespan Investigation Program.

The Space Lifter’s RS-IC booster was designed for a long, effectively unlimited lifespan per vehicle, with rapid and cost-effective turnaround between flights. The hope was that a mature booster program would be capable of turning a booster around in as little as a week, hopefully with little more inspection or overhaul than a high performance military aircraft. NASA knew that this was an optimistic goal, and had no experience with operating a reusable suborbital spacecraft of this scale for so many flights. Ground tests had validated thermal protection systems, engines, and the airframe and tanks for dozens or more cycles. However, it remained to be seen how closely the Lifter booster would align with those test results in service. Inspections to determine the alignment would require sacrifices which would make NASA’s goal of rapid reflight challenging if not impossible: crawling over every inch of vehicle, inside and out, on every flight. Drawing on the example of continuous aircraft maintenance programs for commercial and military aviation, SLIP would consist of varying levels of checks, with increasing levels of rigor, conducted at scheduled intervals. Some checks and maintenance would be carried out every flight during routine turnaround, such as basic computer checks, visual inspection of external surfaces, and the functionality and condition of critical primary and secondary systems. Others were scheduled in alternating combinations every second flight or on similar intermittent schedules, such as borescoping the F-1B turbopumps. However, at scheduled milestones, each airframe in turn would face a SLIP inspection of similar scope to an aircraft “D” check: a near complete inspection of every component in every detail, including substantial removal and replacement of components.

Though much of these SLIP checks had been part of the experimental test program prior to the first orbital flight, the first milestone for “operational” SLIP inspection was six flights into the boosters’ lives. Though some of these checks had been conducted after every early flight, the first major check was scheduled to follow the sixth mission for each booster. Until these heavy inspections and overhauls were completed, the boosters wouldn’t return to the flight line. Independance was the first to hit her maintenance interval, being moved off the active list following her sixth flight to launch STS-6 in April 1980. Constitution followed in turn after STS-8. During this overhaul, the boosters departed from the Cape, ferrying back to their construction sites for inspection more intense than could be managed in the booster processing facilities at Kennedy. Many of the same engineers and technicians who had originally built them now crawled all over their charges for months on end. The boosters’ main engines and its hydrogen peroxide thrusters were safed and removed, enabling inspection of the entire systems. The ten airbreathing engines were removed as well, and their hydrogen peroxide start turbines were inspected as well for erosion or damage. Portion of the boosters’ propellant feed lines were removed and replaced, with the old ones sent to but cut up for metallurgical testing. The entire cockpit ejection pod was removed from each booster for the first time. Pyros and solid ejection motors were removed, replaced, and the old ones tested. Sections of the boosters’ titanium and aluminum heat shield were removed for similar tests, and the entire boosters’ protective coatings were stripped to enable inspection of the skin itself inside and out. Every possible wire in the vehicle was tested at both ends to ensure proper signals, and sensors were removed and tested. While the inspections went on, any defects were catalogued and repaired, building a picture for how the two boosters had aged in service.

Overall, the issues found by inspections of the Lifters, at least, were minor and in line with what had been expected based on the ground tests and turnaround checks between missions. While the repairs were made, a few minor improvements were incorporated based on the experiences of the initial years of flights and development in the meantime. The most important were minor upgrades to the booster’s computer systems, but the most visible was to the boosters’ appearance. Independence and Constitution had originally been painted a clean white, intended to enable easier evaluation of potential damage to the coating or the all-important aluminum and titanium skin behind it. However, in service, the benefits of this visual inspection had been found to be biased by pure surface discoloration from the high temperatures encountered during booster entry and discoloration from previous flights if the booster wasn’t laboriously washed between missions. New non-destructive evaluation methods were also introduced to supplement and even replace the pure visual evaluation. Thus, when Intrepid had received her Air Force paint job, she had been colored a light gray on her top surfaces, and black on the belly, which had proved after STS-7 to show much less visual change between flights. While Intrepid still needed to be cleaned between flights to remove the worst of the charring, this could be done with essentially an oversize car wash, and removing non critical but heavily visible char no longer required as much labor. Thus, when Independence and Constitution received a clean bill of health to return to the flight line for another dozen missions each, they would wear the same paint job.

While the pressure was on SLIP to prove that NASA had achieved its goal of a heavily reusable booster, the absence of two of the three operational RS-ICs from the Cape left the pressure of the entire launch program to be borne by Intrepid alone. The program’s ability to meet its high-pressure schedule goals through the end of 1980 and early 1981 would depend largely on their ability to prepare a single booster for reflight. As soon as Intrepid returned from launching a pair of commercial communications satellite on STS-9 in September, crews set to work to ready her for a Department of Defense payload to be launched on a dog-leg polar trajectory in November. With this classified payload (in fact, the final KH-11 optical spy satellites) deposited into LEO, Intrepid was turned around for a January launch of another pair of comsats on STS-11, before finally launching the Space Shuttle Endeavour’s second flight to orbit on STS-12 in March. While the two-month durations between missions weren’t a severe trial of the turnaround that Lifter could manage, the effects meant that delays in preparing any one missions cascaded directly onto the next--there was no second booster stacking in the VAB while Intrepid waited for launch windows to open up in wind and weather. It made the one-month turnaround achieved between STS-12 and STS-13 in April all the more impressive, especially given the debut of the new Centaur-G stage used on the launch of the DoD Chalet satellite to geostationary orbit as preparation for future NASA use of the stage for interplanetary flights.

The Boosters were not the only vehicles caught up in SLIP schedules. Following STS-24 and her sixth launch, Endeavour was removed from service for her own SLIP-I inspection, and a similar in-depth inspection was conducted. In addition to her usual post-flight OMS inspection, her abort engine system was removed and the modified LR-91 engines inspected. During her absence, the second NASA Orbiter, OV-103 Discovery, replaced her for further flights, with her maiden flight on STS-27 in October.

Between SLIP inspections and Intrepid’s marathon run bearing the entire launch manifest for STS, the Space Lifter booster was proving its value. Though the cost per flight of a Space Lifter mission was above $40 million instead of the $18.5 million originally promised in 1971, this was actually to slightly lower than the original estimates when accounting for inflation. However, there was still pressure to further reduce costs, and much of this focus turned to the major expendable portion of the system: the S-IVC stage. More than half the cost of each flight was in the structures of the S-IVC, disposable interstage, and launch fairings, with another substantial portion being the J-2S-2 engine, while the production rate of S-IVC stages was projected to potentially be the limiting factor in STS operations if a fleet of four boosters (including booster RS-IC-604 Liberty which was completing testing prior to delivery) were each capable of launching once a month. While reducing booster turnaround costs could help in boosting flight rate, the production of upper stages was the main target for pressure for program cost reduction and production throughput increases. McDonnell was challenged on whether the rate of production and cost of each stage could be increased by further automation, while process engineers worked through every step to minimize delays, increase utilization of fixed-overhead equipment, and reduce manual labor.

Additional benefits came as McDonnell would no longer acceptance fire each stage as a unit. Instead, Rocketdyne’s acceptance firings of each engine would be used to qualify a lot, which would be delivered for assembly. After assembly, a wet dress rehearsal of the stage would test and qualify the stage’s structures and plumbing, but the SACTO test site would be mothballed, as there were no further plans for static-fires of complete S-IVC stages. The results helped stem the growth of operational costs, but involved accepting a certain degree more risk. Even as engineers fought to achieve further cost reductions, they were developing confidence in their product as production fell into a rhythm. The S-IV had already passed the flight history of the 200 series and 500 series of the S-IVB, not to mention the original S-IV, and was on track to pass the combined production of the S-IVB 200 and 500 series by the end of 1982. As the peak pressure bore down on the STS program to deliver flights, reduce costs, and launch critical payloads, the work of engineers to ensure the ongoing supply of S-IVC stages was little more than a footnote.

While the launch portions of the Space Transportation System was focusing on bearing up under the rising pressure of operational missions, NASA attention was focused on the high-profile internal programs which Space Lifter and Space Shuttle would enable. The largest for NASA’s human spaceflight program was the Spacelab man-tended platform. The Spacelab program can trace its origins to the cooperation agreements between the European Space Research Organization (ESRO) and NASA, beginning in the late 1960s and escalating under the Nixon Administration. In 1970, NASA Administrator Tom Paine briefed ESRO managers on his expansive vision for NASA’s post-Apollo goals--a fleet of space stations in orbits from LEO to the Moon, a swarm of space tugs moving payloads to and fro between them, a fully-reusable Space Shuttle to launch all of it from the ground, and, as the cherry on the stacked cake, crewed voyages to Mars and even beyond. Of most interest to ESRO, which had achieved some success building scientific satellites, were the space stations. The industrial applications of high-molecular-mass crystal growth and microgravity manufacturing techniques offered the chance for medium-term return-on-investment, a stimulus for the European manufacturing and pharmaceutical sectors (particularly that in West Germany). As the US government made it clear that the proposed Space Tugs could not be outsourced to Europe (due primarily to concerns about sharing cryogenic rocket technology), ESRO concentrated its attention on European participation in the Space Station projects.

Though both ESRO and NASA were in agreement that they wanted to work on a Space Station in the near future, the two agencies brought to the table very different assumptions about the actual purpose of the station. Indeed, even within NASA, there was, until 1973, no clear consensus on just what the station would be for. Marshall Space Flight Center, still under the spiritual (if not actual) leadership of Wernher von Braun and his German team, envisioned an orbital shipyard, propellant depot, and manufacturing facility where ships and satellites were assembled and refueled for journeys further out into space. Such facilities would be necessary for the realization of the voyages to Mars that von Braun had envisioned decades before--only in the wide expanses of space could the vast landing craft and spinning, nuclear-powered interplanetary ships be assembled. Johnson Space Center, for its part, shared the belief that the Space Station’s purpose was to support longer-term human exploration of space, but envisioned the Space Station as essentially a test article for an interplanetary ship--a proving ground for advanced life-support systems, with the ultimate goal of complete life-support system closure. For their parts, the scientists from Goddard, Ames, and Lewis Research Centers all had different focuses within the broad umbrella of “space science,” and while they generally envisioned smaller vehicles, they differed on the subject of where a space station should go, whether it should be permanently manned (or manned at all, as a persistent minority at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory kept asking), and how much human intervention in the experiments was actually required.

It was somewhat fortunate for ESRO, then, that the Nixon Administration was considerably less ambitious with regard to spaceflight than Administrator Paine had hoped. By 1971, the administration had made clear that NASA’s budget would not be nearly large enough to afford the interplanetary empire Paine had described to the Europeans. Instead, the agency would have to pick the element of the system it found most useful--the Space Transportation System, the combination of Lifter, Orbiter, and disposable second stage.

The cancellation of plans for the permanent Space Station, however, did not end all discussion of human-operated experimental platforms. The Orbiter proposed for the Space Shuttle system was to have an on-orbit lifetime at least several days long and enough payload capacity to carry out scientific experiments on-orbit. Program managers proposed to add to this capability by installing a reusable laboratory module, which could be carried in the payload bay. This “Sortie Can” attracted some interest on both sides of the Atlantic--Grumman Aerospace went as far as recycling some of its Lunar Module Laboratory (LM Lab) concepts, initially developed for the Apollo Applications Program, into proposals for a Sortie Can. The concept was particularly popular at Ames Research Center, whose experience with the flying Galileo laboratory (carried inside a modified Convair 990) illustrated the flexibility and utility of a frequently-flying multi-instrument platform. However, as the limitations of the Orbiter’s consumables, electricity, and payload capacity became clear, attention shifted from the Sortie Can to a proposal that originated in Europe, initially termed the Man-Tended Free Flyer.

In its scale, Man-Tended Free Flyer was much closer to Skylab than the Lunar Module Laboratory. The new proposal envisioned a 30-tonne pressurized Laboratory Module attached to a 10-tonne Service Module that could provide 25 kilowatts of electricity. The Laboratory Module would host experiment racks for a host of different microgravity science experiments, and external attachment points for materials science investigations in the hard-vacuum, high-radiation environment of outer space. The Laboratory Module’s life support system would be developed by ESA, with some American input. As MTFF missions would be limited initially by the orbital lifetime of the Orbiter, the life support system was optimized to support a crew for up to one month at a time, with most of the actual consumables for the stay (water, oxygen, food) carried by the Orbiter. In essence, MTFF would serve as a cabin in orbit, with a stay time dictated by how much food, water, and power the Orbiter could carry up to it. In order to overcome the limits of the Orbiter’s planned 7-day lifespan, the Service Module would be capable of providing electrical power to the Orbiter, extending the small craft’s lifetime from a week to a month or more.

The Man-Tended Free Flyer was attractive to scientists in Europe and in some of the American space centers, but not all. By excising the closed life-support system, the MTFF became incompatible with Johnson Space Center’s vision for space stations, and its utility for on-orbit construction was also limited (but not zero--small-scale experiments with assembly and manufacturing in microgravity and hard vacuum could be performed). The vehicle could have been placed in a polar orbit, but this was not ideal, as it would limit the amount of payload that an Orbiter could take up to it. Orbits from 23 to 52 degrees in inclination were discussed, though only the upper ranges satisfied earth science specialists. Physicists and astronomers in both Europe and America were the most hostile to MTFF, considering it a distraction and diversion of funding from unmanned spacecraft, including NASA’s then in-development Space Telescope. Ultimately, however, the program benefitted from the fact that it was essentially a European enterprise--a program run by Europeans did not need to satisfy every lobby in America. Though NASA had taken a new look at MTFF in 1972 (as part of a directive from the President to tie America’s allies more closely into its achievements in space), the program could only be brought to fruition if it were managed primarily from Europe.

What remained in 1973, then, was the question of how to actually fund and authorize the MTFF. West Germany and its supporting countries in ESRO (Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Italy) remained very interested in developing MTFF, as visions of wonder-drugs and miracle-metals danced in front of their eyes. France and the United Kingdom, however, had differing priorities. After the Europa debacle, France wanted to recommit Europe to a new launch vehicle program, to ensure independent access to space communications for Europe and independence from the American Intelsat monopoly. Britain, for its part, was most interested in a maritime communications network to support its still-significant economic ties to its former colonies. The compromise between the three blocs, signed in 1973, to take effect in 1975, secured each of these programs, assuring each European contributor that its support would be rewarded by support for its own preferred program. ESRO and ELDO were to be merged into a new European Space Agency, which would develop Ariane, MTFF, and the new maritime communications network (though this last would eventually be spun off into INMARSAT).

ESRO awarded the prime contract for the development of the MTFF, which had been dubbed Spacelab by the Americans and those Europeans who worked most closely with them, to the West German consortium ERNO, a joint venture of Weser Flugzeugbau and Focke-Wulf. ERNO would be tasked with building the Laboratory Module, Exposure Facilities, and Service Module for Spacelab, though they would receive advice and support from NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center on the Service Module (drawing on that center’s experience developing Skylab) and Ames Research Center on the Laboratory module (drawing on that center’s experience with the Galileo flying laboratory). After the spacecraft was completed and launched, it would be controlled primarily from the European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt, Germany, though the American experimental pallets would be controlled from Ames (in coordination with Darmstadt), and visiting Space Shuttles would, of course, be under the control of Johnson Space Center.

The Space Transportation System was always intended to become NASA’s primary launch vehicle for all payloads, including those managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Goddard Space Flight Center for planetary science, astronomy, and heliophysics. For such missions, NASA turned to the venerable Centaur upper stage, which had been the agency’s first vehicle to burn cryogenic hydrogen and which remained the upper stage of choice for scientific and unmanned payloads. Managed by Lewis Research Center and manufactured by General Dynamics, the Centaur had proven its worth as an upper stage for the Atlas rocket, boosting that vehicle’s geostationary transfer orbit payload and turning a first-generation ICBM into a reliable and high-performance launcher for commercial and government payloads. As interplanetary payloads increased in mass, it had also proven very adaptable, moving from the Atlas launcher to a Titan III. Centaur had launched the Pioneer spacecraft to the outer solar system, the Surveyor spacecraft to the Moon, and the Mariner spacecraft to Mercury, Venus, and Mars--though there was some protest from the USAF in favor of a solid-propellant Inertial Upper Stage (so favored for its perceived adaptability to different payload sizes and the reliability of solid rockets) for GTO and interplanetary payloads, the performance of cryogenic hydrogen and the fact that Centaur was already available meant that the debate was brief and Lewis Research Center began work in 1975 on a scaled-up Centaur-G upper stage to fly on the Space Lifter.

The primary difference between Centaur-G and the earlier Centaurs that had flown on Atlas and Titan IIIE was its diameter. In order to take advantage of the greater diameter of the Space Lifter’s upper stage, Centaur-G’s hydrogen tank diameter was increased 60%, from the original 10 feet to 16 feet, while the length fell from 31.5 feet to 20 feet. Though Lewis Research Center and GD both also proposed even larger Super Centaurs with lengths restored to the original 31.5 feet and even beyond, for super-sized outer solar system payloads, the stubby Centaur-G was deemed by NASA headquarters and the USAF to be sufficient for the near-term needs of both organizations.

Centaur-G’s first test flight came on April 6, 1981. The payload was managed by the Department of Defense, and remains mostly classified, but a general consensus has emerged that it boosted an electronic intelligence payload to Geostationary Orbit, after which the Centaur-G demonstrated other new features that had been integrated into the design: an increase in multilayer insulation that reduced the propellant boiloff rate from 2% to under 1% of loaded propellant per day, and an optional solar array that extended the stage’s useful life from mere hours to several days. The Lifter-Centaur stack was drastically overpowered for this particular payload, so the Centaur-G retained a significant load of both liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen after injecting the payload. The earlier Centaur had demonstrated the ability to restart its engines up to seven times, with a coast period over 5 hours long between burns. The upgraded Centaur-G duplicated that coast time, restarting at 300 kilometers above Earth’s surface after circularizing the payload’s orbit and then dropping itself back down toward Earth. The stage and its propellant load were monitored in Low Earth Orbit for another 72 hours before the engines were lit one last time to fully de-orbit the Centaur. Though not strictly necessary for the success of the primary mission, this test of the Centaur-G’s long lifetime and multiple-restart capability was a helpful demonstrator for NASA’s long-term plans to introduce a fully-reusable space tug and to use Centaur-G as the basis for a Service Module to increase the utility of the Orbiter on more complex LEO missions.

The major successes of the transition of the Space Transportation System from a development and test program to an operational launcher and orbital spacecraft came in spite of some serious shakeups on the ground in the team responsible for the manufacture and preparations of the vehicles. The Space Transportation System involved three prime contractors, three major government agencies (NASA, the FAA, and the USAF), and a host of subcontractors, launching payloads that varied in everything from size to security classification to launch window tolerance. The Reagan Administration analyzed a number of different approaches for consolidating management of the program, including keeping the program under NASA management (an option disliked by the USAF, which wanted to manage its own Lifter and Shuttle fleet), creating a new government agency or corporation (disliked by the Administration, which had campaigned on the promise of curbing the size and scope of government and controlling the proliferation of agencies), and creating a new Government or Private corporation. Ultimately, the option chosen was to have Boeing and McDonnell-Douglas create a new joint venture--the Space Transportation Corporation--that would consolidate all Space Lifter operations under one roof, and through which all Lifter launches would be contracted. The USAF and NASA would buy launches on the Lifter in essentially the same manner that a government office would ship packages through a cargo airline like Federal Express, though, in the case of the former agency, with considerably more oversight on classified payloads. Orbiter operations, as they had less of a market case and more implications for international diplomacy, would remain under the administration of NASA’s Manned Spacecraft Center and, in later years, the United States Air Force. The STC would have, however, have the option to buy excess capability on Space Shuttle missions back from NASA on a prorated basis for deployments of small “ride-along” comsat deployments from the glider’s payload bay, such as that carried out on STS-15 or STS-24.

Among other consequences of the creation of the Space Transportation Corporation was the gradual divorce of Marshall Space Flight Center from the day-to-day operation of the Lifter fleet. Though the center remained firmly involved in plans to utilize the Lifter’s capability for NASA’s planned space station, and worked closely with Boeing and McDonnell to iteratively improve the Lifter design in smaller ways, the concentration of STC assets at Michoud Assembly Facility, the West Coast assembly plants owned by the prime contractors, and the launch pads at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Air Force Base increasingly meant that Kennedy Space Center took the lead in actual NASA use of the Lifter, handling payload integration and the specialized facilities that NASA had built up for the Apollo Program and converted for use with the Space Transportation System. With the cancellation of the “Shuttle II” design studies and the delivery of the Spacelab service module for final assembly at the Cape, MSFC saw a wind-down of the development work for which it had been founded, and the center would become a major source of lobbying for a plan for a new, major NASA program as the 1980s progressed.

Though the transition from development to operations did not equally enrich all branches of NASA, and introduced a significant degree of confusion in the first weeks of STC’s existence as the corporate cultures of Boeing and McDonnell-Douglas were forced together, the Space Transportation System seemed well on its way to becoming a successful launch vehicle by 1982. STC won many new communications satellite contracts, and its growing record of reliability inspired mission planners at NASA, commsat manufacturers like Hughes, and the secretive National Reconnaissance Office to begin planning to utilize the full range of the system’s capabilities. Several important institutional payloads planned to use the system were in the final stages of preparation, most critically the European Pressurized Module and the Marshall-built Service Module for Spacelab which arrive at the Cape for final assembly. The boosters Independence and then Constitution returned from their SLIP inspections cleared for another dozen missions each, and the fourth and final booster, Liberty made its debut flight. As the Lifter closed out 1981 with its 8th launch of that year (and 19th overall orbital launch), it seemed that the system’s future was bright and clear. The pressure began to come off even as the launch rate was only set to accelerate.
 
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Additional benefits came as McDonnell would no longer acceptance fire each stage as a unit. Instead, Rocketdyne’s acceptance firings of each engine would be used to qualify a lot, which would be delivered for assembly. After assembly, a wet dress rehearsal of the stage would test and qualify the stage’s structures and plumbing, but the SACTO test site then lots of pre-tested engines would The results helped stem the growth of operational costs, but involved accepting a certain degree more risk. Even as engineers fought to achieve further cost reductions, they were developing confidence in their product as production fell into a rhythm. The S-IV had already passed the flight history of the 200 series and 500 series of the S-IVB, not to mention the original S-IV, and was on track to pass the combined production of the S-IVB 200 and 500 series by the end of 1982. As the peak pressure bore down on the STS program to deliver flights, reduce costs, and launch critical payloads, the work of engineers to ensure the ongoing supply of S-IVC stages was little more than a footnote.
I'm currently in the middle of reading, but I noticed something wrong with the red part.
 
An exciting update. My worry is that we're simply pushing the "Golden Years" ahead ITTL.
I'm kind of sad that Sally Ride lost her place as 1st female American astronaut. But Resnick is amazing too.
I'm curious if the push to the Space Transportation Corporation means we'll see less drive to stick congressmen and school teachers on shuttle flights.
 

Archibald

Banned
ITTL shuttle is a much less compromised vehicle than OTL, so why should there be an accident in the 80's ?

Lots of interesting stuff here, most of which very logical developments (MTFF).

Centaur operations will be much, much less risky than OTL. Shuttle-Centaur was a safety nightmare; crews would have sat on a ticking bomb. No such danger there - the Centaur is bolted to the S-IVB without any orbiter crew seating nearby - only the lifter crew, but then again, aborting from a flawed S-IVB shouldn't be too hard. It is far better to have a classic payload shroud wrapped around the Centaur rather than a complete, crewed shuttle orbiter, isn't it ?
 
I'm curious if the push to the Space Transportation Corporation means we'll see less drive to stick congressmen and school teachers on shuttle flights.
I'm not sure. To me it just looks like they've formed the United Space Alliance a decade or two ahead of time; there might be more actually commercial stuff for them to do (maybe they should talk to their commercial aircraft divisions...), but by and large it's still NASA calling the shots. Especially since the shuttles are still run by NASA, not the STC.
 

Archibald

Banned
Maybe a shuttle stack could be done from a 1/96 Saturn V (S-IC and S-IVB stages) mated to a 1/48 scale DreamChaser model (if that ever exists)
 
Good catch. Let this be a lesson to all--never drink and edit.

Bite, Mampf, crunch...and eating during edit ! x'D

Back to topic
why do i have that groundless suspicion that some thing bad got happen with this TL STS ?
year OTL we had 1986 Challenger and 2003 Columbia
those failure will not to happened to this STS, but what else ?

maybe Turbopump failure in F-1B Engines or structural failure of S-IVC or Centaur-G tank...
 
Bite, Mampf, crunch...and eating during edit ! x'D

Back to topic
why do i have that groundless suspicion that some thing bad got happen with this TL STS ?
year OTL we had 1986 Challenger and 2003 Columbia
those failure will not to happened to this STS, but what else ?

maybe Turbopump failure in F-1B Engines or structural failure of S-IVC or Centaur-G tank...
I dont think it will be a critical failure but a political one
Europe will start its own cheap rocket series and the over-expensive and over-powered shuttle will loose steam
 
I dont think it will be a critical failure but a political one
Europe will start its own cheap rocket series and the over-expensive and over-powered shuttle will loose steam

not quite
Most ironic, it was the 1986 Challenger disaster that gave Arianespace the boost they needed
NASA took almost 3 years to get shuttle back to fly, while US companies had similar disasters with there boosters or had lack to launch GTO payload,
during same time customers needed there Satellite to be launch and ran to Arianespace...

If there is NO major accident with STS in this TL Arianespace will have it hard, even only survived in niche not serve in STS payload manifesto
except ESA minister council wants independent access to Spacelab (highly unrealistic scenario)
 
not quite
Most ironic, it was the 1986 Challenger disaster that gave Arianespace the boost they needed
NASA took almost 3 years to get shuttle back to fly, while US companies had similar disasters with there boosters or had lack to launch GTO payload,
during same time customers needed there Satellite to be launch and ran to Arianespace...

If there is NO major accident with STS in this TL Arianespace will have it hard, even only survived in niche not serve in STS payload manifesto
except ESA minister council wants independent access to Spacelab (highly unrealistic scenario)
Interesting analysis
I was basing myself on the quote on top of the chapter to try and predict what would be possible grey clouds
 
My big literary concern is the title of this chapter. Max-Q. We know how dangerous that point of flight is. And STS is rapidly approaching 12+ flights per year. You can only push the hardware so far. I'd love to see this TL avoid a Challenger event. But that remains to be seen. At least we know the most likely point of failure will be with the Lifter.
 
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