washingtonpost.com, Friday February 24th
The Mix, Governors Line
With the announcement this past week that Attorney General Hakeem El-Amin will for Governor of New York the battle for control of Governor’s mansions across the country got going in earnest this week. El-Amin has long been the DNC’s number 1 choice for the race against Republican Rob Cole and immediately vaults the race into the top tier. Cole’s shock victory over Matthew Lewis four years ago was the credited by many to the scandals surrounding Lewis and El-Amin represents a far less attractive target for Cole. Reclaiming total control of New York politics has been a DNC focus for the past few years after losing key positions in the Senate and State House mainly as the result of scandals engulfing the likes of Lewis and Michael Daschowitz. El-Amin’s announcement makes New York the top target for Democrats in a year with a series of races that are likely to hotly contested.
10. Georgia (D): Mike Schofield’s time as Governor is pretty much over, he’s term limited in 2018 and is already more focused on running for President. He is likely to endorse Attorney General Jeremy Jefferson and he’ll start as the prohibitive favourite. He will be joined in the race by a pair of Congressmen; Lee Eldrige and Bo Deal. We already know that maverick, independent Congressman Stoker Hansen intends to run as a 3rd party candidate but the race could get significantly more interesting if former Senator Grace Hardin follows through on her initial soundings of a run. Hardin was a two term Senator who maintained fairly strong popularity before being ousted by Max Lobell Jr. in 2010. In practice this race could very quickly move up the line or totally disappear depending on Hardin’s decision.
9. Iowa (R): Carl York intends to seek a third term but his approval rating isn’t strong enough of complacency. Former Senator Rod Kasey is making noises about a run on the Democratic side and former EPA Administrator James Edwards is being encouraged to return home and challenge York. Kasey and Edwards are, by all accounts not friends and could contest a fairly furious primary.
8. Colorado (R): Oliver Moseley is term-limited opening what is likely to be a competitive contest. Democrats are quickly coalescing behind Congressman Lance McKey, the former Mayor of Denver – their determination to win the race is demonstrated by the regional parties focus on clearing the field. Suggestions that former Senator Camille Aubry was considering a run have been denied by her camp. Republicans are a bit less certain. Congresswoman Sophia Hill is keen, but is too moderate to get a free run. Prominent State Senate Clark Jordan will almost certainly challenge Hill, his biggest threat is that fellow conservative Wade Barton also gets in and splits his base.
7. Louisiana (R): Cole Quigley came to office amid a primary coup but will leave office with a strong approval rating and suggestions that he is now a strong contender in the VP stakes when the GOP get round to deciding on a Presidential nominee. The current state Secretary of State Kevin Haynes is expected to declare on the GOP side and he’ll be joined by former Congressman and current radio talkshow host Ronnie Bauer. State Senate Raina Mays will round out a strong Republican field. For the Democrats a host of candidates are circling but the race seems likely to come down to Congressman Sam Callas, a rising star in Democratic politics and former Mayor of New Orleans and the State Party Chairman Weldon Prater who are both polling significantly ahead of anyone else.
6. Indiana (R): With Emily Rudden term limited the Hoosier State looks to be a highly competitive race and although the GOP have held the State House for some time they have lost both Senate seats in state wide races in the last few years. The seat passed from Governor Stephen Kendrick to then Lieutenant Governor Rudden and current number two Brian Griffin is keen to repeat the trick. He will find competition from Congressman Matthew Stillman who has more or less guaranteed that he’ll run no matter what and he’ll be joined by fellow Representative Chuck Fitzgerald. With a competitive race on the Republican side Democrats are pinning their hopes on Olivia Buckland, the wife of the former Governor Jack. Mrs Buckland, 20 years her husband’s junior, has the profile and political nous to be very competitive in a General Election – the doubt is whether her moderate nature will get through a primary with the much more liberal Congresswoman Ann Coleman.
5. Nevada (D): Randy Broughton’s retirement throws the race wide open. Congressman Stephen Chase, who was once Mayor of Henderson has already confirmed that he intends to seek the nomination, throwing up an intriguing rematch with former Congressman Joey Cano who will seek the GOP nomination. Chase will first have to see off State Senator Celeste Glenn and State Controller Coy Whitlock. On the GOP side, Lieutenant Governor Dalton Creel has all but declared and he seems likely to be backed by Attorney General Cassy Gatlin who some had though a possible candidate. Creel’s main challenge will come from SASS CEO Justin Wright, who has made hints that he is considering a run for the office.
4. Wisconsin (R): If there is a less interesting Governor in America than Stephen Robson then I’ve never met him. Since being elected in 2012 he seems to have made a virtue out of invisibility – he famously won the award for the least recognised Governor in Wisconsin history, quite a feat for the incumbent! Congresswoman Nicole Henderson’s decision seems to rest on her husband Nate’s decision to run for the Senate – they seem unlikely to run two parallel campaigns. If Henderson passes then look for Attorney General Mike Holliday to emerge from a competitive primary.
3. New Mexico (I): It would be fair to say that everyone in New Mexico is simply desperate for a quiet, understated and uncontroversial Governor. Rudi Vansen – who famously fled the country after fraud accusations – will retire as one of the state’s most unpopular Governors in history. His entire tenure has been marked with scandal and the last two years have been spent defending his administration in court over accusations of over reach. Former Albuquerque Mayor Matthew Stimson is almost certainly for the Democrats and he’ll face Congressamn Will Diego of the 2nd district. Since being elected in 2010 Diego has made quite the name for himself and should he prevail many see him as future national figure. The Republican race looks packed – former State House Speaker Mario Mendez who very narrowly lost the 2008 Senate race is all but certain to run, the current favourite is Congressman Henry Riker who has been one of Vansen’s most outspoken critics and local businessman Marc Joaquin-Garcia is running on an anti-establishment ticket.
2. Montana (D): Kurt Carner’s excellent run as Governor will come to an end next year and he’ll leave office with spectacular approval ratings (65%) and a strong record of achievement. That said he’ll most likely hand the role to a Republican as Montana seems likely to swing back to the GOP next year. A contested Senate race where Republicans have high hopes and a Presidential election will make this heavy lifting for even the strongest Democrat, and State Senator Kimble Roach isn’t Carner by any stretch. Republican Congressman Scott Lynch is keen for another go and State Auditor Monty Fisher is gearing up for a run. Whoever wins the Republican Primary will be the heavy favourite.
1. New York (R): The only obstacle to Hakeem El-Amin at the moment would be Congresswoman Keila Briggs and his team is believed to be working furiously to keep her out of the race. The Attorney General’s staff think if Briggs stays out the field will be effectively cleared but if she gets in that two or three other candidates will likely through their hats in. Governor Cole’s best hope appears to be a contested primary that damages what could be a very strong opponent.
