Would an Austrian annexation of South Germany be a hindrance or a benefit?

[GauchoBadger]

So, let's assume that, after winning the austro-prussian war or intervening in the franco-prussian war successfully, the Austrian Empire annexes the south german catholic states of Baden, Württemberg, and Bavaria. Would this be, in the long run:
-A benefit? Considering that these regions were majority-german and could be made loyal to the austrian crown with the promotion of a catholic south german identity to differ from the northern, protestant and prussian-dominated identity. The addition of more germans to the austrian multi-ethnic empire could be not a hindrance at all and strenghthen the voice of germans in the empire.
-Or a burden? The Austrian Empire could end up overstretched, and the other ethnicities could revolt under the prospect of the emperor being more focused in german affairs.

 

[Max Sinister]

Why should they? These states were their allies.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Why should they? These states were their allies.

Prussia had annexed their allied north german states in a certain way.
Austria could annex south Germany in order to secure military recruitment areas, to prevent the prussians from gobbling them up first, or to create a new military "watching" zone/strategic location. Or just as a personal wish of the emperor or the south german people.
If they're forced to reform the empire into a more representative system, they could also annex the south german states to give the germans more votes in the assembly, in order to counterbalance the power of the hungarians.

 

[Max Sinister]

No, they annexed their northern German opponents, and the other northern German states became members of a confederation.

 

[GauchoBadger]

No, they annexed their northern German opponents, and the other northern German states became members of a confederation.

Then annexed them anyway five years later.
The austrians could do a similar thing with the south german states as the prussians did with their north german allies after defeating France -- annex them to the empire, givee them some occasional say in the central government, and leave them as autonomous states in other occasions.
Austrian ambitions and geopolitical strategies were different from the prussian ones under Bismarck. A defeat or incapacitation of Prussia would mean a different political situation for Germany overall.

 

[Max Sinister]

The Kaiserreich wasn't a bigger Prussia, but an organization of independent states. The small states still had embassies abroad. Hell, states like Bavaria had their own army.

 

[GauchoBadger]

The Kaiserreich wasn't a bigger Prussia, but an organization of independent states. The small states still had embassies abroad. Hell, states like Bavaria had their own army.

Yet they had a say in the Bundesrat. Some states of the german empire were dominant over smaller ones. There's a difference between autonomy and representation.
What tells you the austrians couldn't have done the same with South Germany?

 

[Max Sinister]

Considered that Prussia made up two thirds of the area and three fifths of the population of Germany, they were rather under-represented in the Bundesrat. They were able to block a supermajority, but that was all.

My point is: "Annexation" is too strong a term. - Other than that, an Austria-lead Confederation might be possible of course.

 

[dcontreras]

Considered that Prussia made up two thirds of the area and three fifths of the population of Germany, they were rather under-represented in the Bundesrat. They were able to block a supermajority, but that was all.

My point is: "Annexation" is too strong a term. - Other than that, an Austria-lead Confederation might be possible of course.

Prussia began its dominance of and influence over Northern Germany with the Zollverein. It excluded Austria and the South German states. Annexation might be too insulting to South German states and their sovereignty especially as they have traditionally and continued to be pro-Austrian even after their decline began in the mid 1800's.

Perhaps a customs union like the Zollverein could precede a South German Confederation. The one thing that would concern me is that with two conflicting and rival German Confederations, alliances, or whatever it would be, it might cause some power plays in Europe. Would the South German Confederation side with France in possible war with Prussia and the Northern German Confederation? Would Bismarck create an alliance with Italy to force a possible two front war for Austria. (That would be ironic). How would the other great power on the continent, Russia play into all this?

 

[GauchoBadger]

Annexation might be too insulting to South German states and their sovereignty especially as they have traditionally and continued to be pro-Austrian even after their decline began in the mid 1800's.

Perhaps a customs union like the Zollverein could precede a South German Confederation. The one thing that would concern me is that with two conflicting and rival German Confederations, alliances, or whatever it would be, it might cause some power plays in Europe. Would the South German Confederation side with France in possible war with Prussia and the Northern German Confederation? Would Bismarck create an alliance with Italy to force a possible two front war for Austria. (That would be ironic). How would the other great power on the continent, Russia play into all this?

I was thinking about a PoD in Napoleon III not being so addicted to expanding Italy and preferring to create an alliance with Austria instead.
If Prussia aligns with Italy, i'm afraid they won't be so good in knocking them out in a hypothetical war. Prussia's only border with Austria would be the northern sudetenland mountains, while Italy's only border with Austria would be Venetia. Just Prussia and Italy combined won't be enough to take down both Austria and the south german confederation.
Even if the south german states remain independent but austrian-aligned, how does that affect politics within the Austrian Empire?

 

[dcontreras]

Good point. The Hungarian issue wasn't going to go away. The slavic ethnic issues were not going to go away. The Austrian, German side of the empire might be solidified but would they then be more open to self-determination within their Empire or would they become more steadfast abut holding onto their power and not opening up or sharing.

 

[JackLumber]

Prussia began its dominance of and influence over Northern Germany with the Zollverein. It excluded Austria and the South German states. Annexation might be too insulting to South German states and their sovereignty especially as they have traditionally and continued to be pro-Austrian even after their decline began in the mid 1800's.

Perhaps a customs union like the Zollverein could precede a South German Confederation. The one thing that would concern me is that with two conflicting and rival German Confederations, alliances, or whatever it would be, it might cause some power plays in Europe. Would the South German Confederation side with France in possible war with Prussia and the Northern German Confederation? Would Bismarck create an alliance with Italy to force a possible two front war for Austria. (That would be ironic). How would the other great power on the continent, Russia play into all this?

Ironically losing a first go at Austria could well prove beneficial to Prussia in the long run as a continued rivalry with the Habsburgs essentially ensures continued Russo-Prussian cooperation for the foreseeable future and the Habsburgs won't fair very well should they have to fight the Hohenzollerns and the Romanovs

 

[GauchoBadger]

Ironically losing a first go at Austria could well prove beneficial to Prussia in the long run as a continued rivalry with the Habsburgs essentially ensures continued Russo-Prussian cooperation for the foreseeable future and the Habsburgs won't fair very well should they have to fight the Hohenzollerns and the Romanovs

Maybe the austrians could call the french for help?

 

[JackLumber]

Maybe the austrians could call the french for help?

Depends on if they get over their rivalry over Italy and I don't see that happening, it was only the surprisingly (for them) good performance of Prussia in the Austro-Prussian War that caused the French to consider allying the Austrians, should the Austrians win it will likely cause increased french hostility not the reverse, especially since annexing the south germans states would be perceived by France as a move against them as they typically had a fair amount of influence in south Germany.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

So, let's assume that, after winning the austro-prussian war or intervening in the franco-prussian war successfully, the Austrian Empire annexes the south german catholic states of Baden, Württemberg, and Bavaria. Would this be, in the long run:
-A benefit? Considering that these regions were majority-german and could be made loyal to the austrian crown with the promotion of a catholic south german identity

Except that Wurttemberg is Protestant. So is northern Bavaria (Franconia, which was Hohenzollern until the Napoleonic period consolidation).

to differ from the northern, protestant and prussian-dominated identity. The addition of more germans to the austrian multi-ethnic empire could be not a hindrance at all and strenghthen the voice of germans in the empire.
-Or a burden? The Austrian Empire could end up overstretched, and the other ethnicities could revolt under the prospect of the emperor being more focused in german affairs.

What seems more useful to me is in the late 1700s, when Austria tried to claim Bavaria in the War of the Bavarian Succession (they offered the Austrian Netherlands to the Wittelsbach heir in exchange). At that time, the House of Habsburg held a lot of scattered territory in SW Germany. All that territory was given up during the consolidation; it does not appear that they cared much. But if Austria had Bavaria, they would have a land bridge to that area, and could easily absorb it.