AHC: Democratic House Majority in 2010

Maybe a plan to cut payroll taxes which could be paid for with a value added tax or carbon tax-though the paying for it part will be unpopular. Maybe Obama increases income taxes on the rich and cuts payroll taxes and income taxes for lower brackets?
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Reagan had a recession and so lost 26 seats in 1982, similar losses in 2010 for the Democrats would allow them to keep a majority.
1) 2008-2009 was the worse recession since the Great Depression,

2) 1982 was the second worse, and I don't think is known about and understood near enough.

As far as seats in the House, the Democrats already a majority in '82 and then I'm guessing it's a question of how far you can go away from some kind of baseline?
 
Last edited:

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
about jobs in 2009 and 2010

a dilemma against us

There seems to be this situation where people in "professional" jobs are expected to work 70 or 80 hours a week, and the rest of us are lucky to get twenty-five hours a week in a big box store. It's too extreme a meritocracy. And it was never that much of a meritocracy to begin with. For example way back in 1983, psychologist Howard Gardner came up with his theory that there are actually seven types of human intelligence, but school focuses on just two: verbal and math/logic.

For example, someone could have merely average verbal and math, but really excellent spatial reasoning skills as well as excellent physical dexterity. And this person might be serious-minded, steady eddie and altogether make an excellent surgeon. Except for the SAT test, college grades, the MCAT and all the rest, he or she most likely will never have a chance, to their loss as well as the loss of their future potential patients. They could do a surgery smoother and quicker, shave valuable minutes off time spent under anesthesia, as well as just maybe come up with better ways to perform surgery. So no, I don't think a split economy of "great" jobs and crummy jobs can be justified by saying, oh, but it's such a great meritocracy.
 
Last edited:

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
something in our favor

The Internet makes commerce easy and helps to crank the economy. More small businesses, more job creation. Heck, maybe if a method of micro-transactions take off, people with a following on youtube could make some real money. Micro-transactions, so you could spend all morning surfing news, music, and video and maybe spend $2.35.

80% of new businesses fail within a year or two. That's the baseline statistic. Now, often the reason is under-capitalization, so the Internet may change that. All the same, I like to remind people that businesses are risky.
 
No Obamacare. 3.7% swing from Democrats to Republicans, so all races the Democrats lost by less than 7.4% go D.
2010 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 224-32 48.6%
John Boehner-Republican: 211+32 48.0%
435 seats
218 for majority

Used HOR Swingometer

2010 Senate elections
Harry Reid-Democratic: 55-2
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 43+2
Independent: 2_

Brown, Kirk, Toomey and Johnson lose.
 
Top