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Countdown to War
Warnings and countdown to War
In early November, General Harmon finally gets a deputy commander in the form of General “Vinegar Joe” Stilwell who takes command of the newly organized I Corps. Although the corps lacks any significant support units, it does have 2 infantry divisions (the newly organized 24th and 25th Infantry Divisions that formed from the Hawaiian Division), a Coast Artillery Command, and a Anti Aircraft Command. He and General Harmon both urgently request additional engineer units, feeling that a couple of regiments would not be underused, but none are yet available. General Stilwell ends some of the peacetime practices that still remain, such as the emphasis on athletics over readiness, and backs his division commanders as they get rid of deadwood.

In the Kuriles, the Japanese First Air Fleet finishes its training regime by the middle of November and makes final preparations for their mission. Meanwhile the Midway Island Invasion force leaves port in Formosa and begins its voyage toward the Marshal Islands which will be their jumping off point.

November 17, 1941
Lewis Clark Grew, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, sends a message to U.S. secretary of state Cordell Hull. He emphasizes the need "for guarding against sudden military or naval actions by Japan in areas not at present involved in the China conflict."

November 20, 1941
Japan issues an ultimatum to the United States, demanding American noninterference in Japanese relations in Indochina and China.

November 25, 1941
The Axis renews the Anti-Comintern Pact for five years. Signatories include Italy, Japan, Spain, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Denmark, Finland, Manchukuo, and Japan's puppet government in Nanking.

Admiral Stark, Chief of Naval Operations, sends a war warning to all Pacific Commands, as does General Marshall. Admiral Richardson orders a steady stream of air raid drills for the Pacific Fleet while they are in Pearl Harbor itself. Although it disrupts the routine of maintenance, he continues them over the next few days until he is satisfied that even in port the Fleet can prepare for combat within at least 15 minutes. He also orders the Yorktown task force (TF 16) to see to patrol the southwestern approaches to Midway and Hawaii. Standing orders are now that at least one carrier task force will be at sea at all times.

The Japanese Carrier Striking Force leaves the Kurile Islands steaming east.


November 27, 1941
In Washington, Secretary Knox issues a general warning to all naval commanders in the Pacific telling them to expect an “aggressive move'' probably aimed at “the Philippines, Kra Peninsula or possibly Borneo”. Admiral Richardson decides this should also include the possibility of a strike at Hawaii as well.

November 28, 1941
From a Magic intercept originally sent November 19th: "In case of emergency...the following warning will be added in the middle of the daily Japanese language short-wave news broadcast:

1. In case of Japan-U.S. relations in danger: EAST WIND RAIN.

2. Japan-USSR relations: NORTH WIND CLOUDY.

3. Japan-British relations: WEST WIND CLEAR.

when this is heard, please destroy all code papers, etc."

In Washington, President Roosevelt convenes another "War Council". The implications of a large Japanese naval force sailing through the South China Sea towards British Malaya, the Dutch East Indies, and the Philippines are discussed. It is agreed that Roosevelt should send a message to Emperor Hirohito urging peace and address Congress about Japan' aggressive actions. However, it is also added that unless Congress should previously declare war, the U.S. cannot attack this Japanese force.

November 30, 1941:
From a Magic intercept of a cable from Tokyo to the Japanese ambassador in Berlin:

"The conversations between Tokyo and Washington now stand ruptured. In the face of this, our Empire faces a grave situation and must act with determination. Therefore, immediately interview Chancellor Hitler...and confidentially communicate to [him] a summary of the developments. Say to [him] that there is extreme danger that war may suddenly break out between the Anglo-Saxon nations and Japan through some clash of arms and

that the time of the breaking out of this war may come quicker than anyone dreams."

December 1, 1941:
In a Magic message, Japan's Foreign Minister advises his ambassador to prevent the U.S.

"from becoming unduly suspicious" and emphasizes to them that it is important to give the impression that "negotiations are continuing." Meanwhile, Japan's ambassador in Berlin has reported Hitler's assurance that "should Japan become engaged in a war against the U.S., Germany, of course, would join the war immediately." Japanese Prime Minister Tojo, then tells the ambassador to inform Hitler that "this war may come quicker than anyone dreams." At sea Admiral Yamamoto receives his orders to attack ("Climb Mount Nitaka!")

December 2, 1941:
Additional Magic messages indicate that Japan is still preparing for war, probably in Southeast Asia. Admiral Richardson discovers that naval intelligence has no real idea where the Japanese aircraft carriers are and is displeased. The Lexington Task Force (TF 2) leaves Pearl Harbor on a mission to deliver a Marine fighter squadron and scout bomber squadron to Midway Island. Orders are sent to Task Force 16 to link up with the Lexington and its task force and once the aircraft are delivered, Admiral Brown is ordered to scout the area between Midway and the Japanese Mandates. Admiral Halsey is sent orders to link up and take command of all three task forces once he completes his mission of delivering fighters to Wake Island. Richardson has orders not start a war with Japan, but he wants his fleet to be as concentrated as possible.

December 3, 1941 (Wednesday):
In Washington, an old Magic intercept, dated November 15th, is finally translated. It urges the Japanese consulate in Hawaii to make twice-weekly reports on the location of American warships in Pearl Harbor. No particular significance is attached to the message in Washington as it is assumed that the Japanese are merely updating their intelligence files on the U.S. Navy. However Admiral Richardson sees this entirely differently, and he persuades the Territorial Governor Poindexter and General Harmon to pressure the FBI to keep closer tabs on Japanese diplomatic personnel. A couple of days later, Lieutenant Commander Yoshikawa of the Imperial Japanese Navy, who is posing as diplomat, suffers a serious car accident and is hospitalized, where he remains until his internment once the war begins. Task Force 9, consisting of 4 oilers and 4 destroyers is ordered to sea where it is to link up with heavy cruiser Minneapolis and Rear Admiral Frank Fletcher will will lead this service group and escorts to rendezvous with Halsey and the carriers as Richardson wants them at sea longer.

December 4, 1941 (Thursday):
In Washington, the available Magic intercepts give a clear indication of Japanese intentions to go to war. For example, they urge Ambassador Nomura to destroy one of his special code machines. Admiral Halsey and the Enterprise task force (TF 3) delivers 12 F4F Wildcats to Wake Island. The American carriers and their supporting ships are moving toward a rendezvous.

(authors note: historical timeline with alterations)
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