alternatehistory.com
1972: NASA hell of a year (7)
February 10, 1972
"George, we have a problem." James Beggs said. "It looks as if Proxmire and Mondale are recruting NASA insiders to grill us over the shuttle debacle. They have set their attention on an engineer, Del Tischler."
"I heard this name before, but can't remember exactly who he is."
"I know him from my days at the head of NASA aeronautic branch, the OART. He was the head of the chemical propulsion division there, and one heck of an engineer, although a little abrasive at times. Oh, and he also assessed the Apollo program for George Mueller a decade ago."
"Now I remember him. Damn, his estimation was we had one chance out of ten to accomplish Kennedy deadline. The report was so explosive Mueller ordered it was destroyed so it never leaked to the outside world - and, more intelligently Mueller also ordered a huge shakedown. That included all-up testing of the Saturn without any dummy stages, to von Braun dismay. You say Tischler did that ?"
"Yes, with another veteran, John Disher. Well, we have to take him under control fast." Beggs said.
"Don't worry. He is extremely loyal, although he ruffled a lot of feathers with his shuttle criticism. He supported it but never minced words about it.
Whatever, today he is somewhat out of job since he was director of the OART shuttle technology office. I wanted him to direct a task force over possible standardization of satellite components to drop their costs.
Tischler rightly noted the low-cost shuttle would be of no use if the payload themselves were not cheap (thus standardized). I felt he was right, and planned to made him the director of a Low Cost Systems Office. Of course without the shuttle all this become moot."
"Sure. Now we need to find a job for that Tischler, and in a hurry. He is too much of a loud mouth."
February 13, 1972
George Low knew Del Tischler from a long time; after all they were both veterans from Apollo and even from the NACA days, before a space agency ever existed. The meeting promised to be memorable.
Tischler had a lot of things to say over the shuttle failure, and he did not minced his words.
Low let him blew his stack, then the two went to the reason of their meeting.
"When working at the OART last year I heard of a peculiar study that may be of interest for you now that the shuttle is dead. A very interesting study of a serie of Skylabs running until 1987 and serviced by modified Apollos. I did a short summary of it."
Tischler paused.
"A year ago on 6 April 1971, eight engineers at the OART (most of them from Ames Research Center) completed a blueprint of NASA’s future." he started.
"That date" Low noted. "Exactly two weeks before the Soviet launch of Salyut 1. Is that a coincidence ? I don't think so. The Soviets have made known publicly - most notably in an October 1969 speech by Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev - their intention to establish Earth-orbiting stations. In fact last year the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency completed a report in which it suggested that the Soviets might construct a series of stations, each larger and more capable than the last, culminating, perhaps, in a $5-billion, 150-ton station between 1976 and 1980."
"The OART engineers did not, however, mention the Soviet space program in their report. Whatever the reason behind their study they proposed the ISS..."
"The what ?" George Low interrupted. For some reason he couldn't explain that accronym rang a bell.
"The Interim Space Station program. It is in effect, an evolutionary extension of Skylab.
"Why interim, anyway ?"
"The OART engineers applied the term interim to their eight-and-half-year program because they intend for it to lead from Skylab to a permanent Space Station through evolutionary, gradual, and step-wise spacecraft systems development.
"Beginning about three years after the third and final Skylab crew returned to Earth, a new interim station would reach LEO every two and a half years. Each would be staffed continuously for from 360 to 420 days." Low had a mixed expression on his face.
"Gimme a break. You are talking about, what, four more Skylabs ? With what Saturn V ?"
"Hum, well, their solution was to end U.S. lunar exploration with Apollo 15 so that the Saturn V rockets earmarked for missions 16, 17, 18, and 19 could be used to launch all these Skylabs."
To Tischler surprise Low was not upset. "Those guys are visionnary." he sighed. "I can tell you Nixon advisors intended to do that - stop Apollo after Apollo 15. Me and Fletcher fought that decision to the very end. At the expense of the shuttle and Fletcher himself." Tischler was aghast. Though bargaining, he thought.
"And now the best part." he continued, smiling. "They went so far as to acknowledge that the Station/Shuttle Program might be delayed or abandoned in favor of some new space goal before the interim station program ran its course."
Low face as Tischler spoke those words was memorable. "For planning purposes, however, they offered a timeline in which NASA’s permanent Station became operational in late 1987, about six years after the Shuttle’s maiden flight and a little more than three years after the last interim station crew returned to Earth."
"Wait a minute, they said the shuttle would fly only in 1981 ?" Low had a bizarre feeling that once again he could not explain.
"Yes. Based on their own NASA flight schedule, the reusable Space Shuttle would begin flights in late 1981 only.
In keeping with this year budget, the OART engineers assumed a steady NASA annual budget of $3.3 billion throughout the interim station program. They estimated that each interim station would cost $2 billion, of which about $330 million would be spent on hardware development, $500 million on experiments, and $1.6 billion on spacecraft hardware. Their program would cost an average of about $500 million annually"
"Fine calculations. Skylab cost $2.5 billion and a production run, even small, would have unit cost drop. How many Skylab did they foresaw ?"
"Four of them - called Interim Space Station -A, -B, -C and -D.
"ISS-A would operate in a a 245-nautical-mile orbit inclined 28.5° relative to Earth’s equator. In fact it would be built from Skylab B itself. There would be no Apollo Telescope mount and it would weight 57 tons plus a 30-ton growth allowance."
"What would the logistic vehicle be without the shuttle ?"
"Apollo command and service modules."
"What launchers ? Titan IIIM or Saturn IB ?"
"None of them, rather an hybrid of the two - three Titan solids with a Saturn S-IVB above them. They say it would cost $80 million to develop, to launch as much as 28.7-ton to a 245-nm orbit at 28.5° of inclination. As for the Apollo its service module would be transformed. Forget the six fuel tanks grouped around a big engine; a couple of smaller tanks and engine borrowed from the Lunar Module would do the job. With only two tanks four bays would be available for cargo. The Apollo would be capable of transporting a total of about 10 tons of supplies and equipment."
"10 tons" Low said, surprised. "How about that." It stroke him as the shuttle original payload before the Air Force come into the program.
"Yeah. And it would cost $100 million to develop. Cargo items as large as 3.5 feet wide by 12 feet long could be removed from the Service Module bays and moved into the space station.
The issue however is that cargo could only be transfered by spacewalking astronauts. Or perhaps they could use a robotic arm ?"
Low nodded. Test of the shuttle robotic arm on an Apollo had been proposed.
"I suppose that, as usual without a shuttle the only items retrieved from orbit would have to be small enough to fit into the Apollo along the astronauts." Low sighed.
"Spot on. And now the schedule and missions.
"ISS-A would be launched early 1976 and dedicated to biotechnology research - a centrifuge and a behavioural laboratory. Three missions would man it for a year after what much like Skylab it would be worn out and abandonned in favour of ISS-B.
"The first three-man ISS-B crew would arrive for a 90-day stint beginning in July 1978, then a second three-man crew would reach the station a month later (August 1978).
The resulting six-man crew would work together for 60 days (September - October), then the first three-man crew would return to Earth.
A third three-man crew would arrive almost immediately (early November) to replace them. Thirty days later, the second crew would return to Earth and a fourth would replace them.
The station main mission would be to perform experimental Earth surveys - agriculture, forestry, geography; geology/mineralogy; hydrology/water resources; oceanography and meteorology. The station would revolve around the Earth in an orbit inclined 50° relative to the equator, so that it could pass over the “most populated and agriculturally productive areas of the Earth. Aboard would be 19 experimental sensors covering the spectrum from ultraviolet through visible light to infrared and microwave. The crews would also continue biomedical experiments.
The seventh three-man ISS-B crew would return to Earth in July 1979 and not be replaced, and the eighth and last three-man crew would splash down a month later, about 390 days after ISS-B reached space."
"So ISS-B would be over in, what, September 1979 ?"
"Yes. Replaced by ISS-C, scheduled for launch in January 1981 with ISS-D following it in orbit in July 1983."
"On what would be the last Saturn V rocket." Low gruntled.
"That's it. ISS -C and -D are pretty similar. Each would have a full crew complement of nine, making more challenging NASA’s reliance on the three-man Apollo for crew rotation and resupply."
"Still no Shuttle ?" Low asked. "I thought those pessimistics had it fly in 1981. Or perhaps in their universe it was also abandonned." he said dryly.
"Nope. Aparently they elected - in their own words, for the sake of simplicity - not to consider using it for ISS-C and ISS-D crew rotation and resupply.
Which results in monthly Apollo launches in January, February, and March 1981 to bring the station population to nine.
Only a month after its third crew arrived, its first crew would complete its 90-day stint on board the station and would return to Earth. NASA would immediately launch a fourth crew to replace them. ISS-C and ISS-D would each receive 12 three-man crews. The stations would support nine men for 360 of the 420 days each was occupied."
Low made rapid calculations. "36 Apollos over a decade. Pretty hefty flight rate."
Tischler nodded.
"So we have an ISS-A for biotechnology research and ISS-B for Earth survey. What about the other two ?"
"ISS-C - materials processing and manufacture. Taking advantage of weightlessness and nearly pure vacuum, the astronauts would manufacture large crystals, exotic composite materials, and biological compounds impossible (or at least very difficult) to create under terrestrial conditions. Oh, and they would also try artificial gravity by spinning the spent S-II. There would also have some Isotope Brayton nuclear power units aboard to boost the station electrical power by six to fifteen kilowatt.
"ISS-D then ?"
"Astronomy, with a trio of free-flying astronomy modules as well as instruments mounted on the station - cosmic rays, solar and stellar astronomy with some big 3 meter mirror."
"And all this end in 1987, in fifteen years. That's impressive. An interesting blueprint for the future"
"Surely. NASA would have accrued the equivalent of more than two years of permanent Space Station biomedical data and operations experience from its four interim stations. This would, they concluded, constitute the interim station program’s chief benefit to U.S. spaceflight."
Tischler did not knew what to say. But Low had taken notes, and obviously his brain was already at work.
"Thank you Adelbert. Tell those OART guys they did an excellent work, somewhat prescient at times. Their schedule may be pertinent." Tischler approved and left the room.
Now alone, for a couple of minutes George Low stood near his office window, staring at the Washington landscape outside. Two months before - the day the shuttle had died - James Fletcher had stood there, too, trying to guess what future of NASA would be.
Low felt the OART plan was a good start - a serie of evolutionary space station, Salyut-style.
Skylab however had two major flaws. It had deliberately be designed as a very short life space station. That issue could be solved.
There was a bigger problem, however.
Skylab was born at Marshall, and that was not acceptable in Houston. Low knew that Faget and his clique had little consideration for Skylab - it fact they had thrown that bone to Marshall only because they were extremely busy with Apollo (and hopefully, with the shuttle).
If NASA next great thing was to be a space station, there was no way Houston wouldn't be at least lead center of that program.
Then if the station was also a derivative of Skylab, there was no way Marshall wouldn't be lead center either !
Low sighed. The last thing NASA needed after the shuttle debacle was a sterile inter-center knife fight. He was not sure Beggs clearly realised how serious the situation was. They HAD to keep Marshall and Houston under control at any cost.
"George, we have a problem." James Beggs said. "It looks as if Proxmire and Mondale are recruting NASA insiders to grill us over the shuttle debacle. They have set their attention on an engineer, Del Tischler."
"I heard this name before, but can't remember exactly who he is."
"I know him from my days at the head of NASA aeronautic branch, the OART. He was the head of the chemical propulsion division there, and one heck of an engineer, although a little abrasive at times. Oh, and he also assessed the Apollo program for George Mueller a decade ago."
"Now I remember him. Damn, his estimation was we had one chance out of ten to accomplish Kennedy deadline. The report was so explosive Mueller ordered it was destroyed so it never leaked to the outside world - and, more intelligently Mueller also ordered a huge shakedown. That included all-up testing of the Saturn without any dummy stages, to von Braun dismay. You say Tischler did that ?"
"Yes, with another veteran, John Disher. Well, we have to take him under control fast." Beggs said.
"Don't worry. He is extremely loyal, although he ruffled a lot of feathers with his shuttle criticism. He supported it but never minced words about it.
Whatever, today he is somewhat out of job since he was director of the OART shuttle technology office. I wanted him to direct a task force over possible standardization of satellite components to drop their costs.
Tischler rightly noted the low-cost shuttle would be of no use if the payload themselves were not cheap (thus standardized). I felt he was right, and planned to made him the director of a Low Cost Systems Office. Of course without the shuttle all this become moot."
"Sure. Now we need to find a job for that Tischler, and in a hurry. He is too much of a loud mouth."
February 13, 1972
George Low knew Del Tischler from a long time; after all they were both veterans from Apollo and even from the NACA days, before a space agency ever existed. The meeting promised to be memorable.
Tischler had a lot of things to say over the shuttle failure, and he did not minced his words.
Low let him blew his stack, then the two went to the reason of their meeting.
"When working at the OART last year I heard of a peculiar study that may be of interest for you now that the shuttle is dead. A very interesting study of a serie of Skylabs running until 1987 and serviced by modified Apollos. I did a short summary of it."
Tischler paused.
"A year ago on 6 April 1971, eight engineers at the OART (most of them from Ames Research Center) completed a blueprint of NASA’s future." he started.
"That date" Low noted. "Exactly two weeks before the Soviet launch of Salyut 1. Is that a coincidence ? I don't think so. The Soviets have made known publicly - most notably in an October 1969 speech by Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev - their intention to establish Earth-orbiting stations. In fact last year the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency completed a report in which it suggested that the Soviets might construct a series of stations, each larger and more capable than the last, culminating, perhaps, in a $5-billion, 150-ton station between 1976 and 1980."
"The OART engineers did not, however, mention the Soviet space program in their report. Whatever the reason behind their study they proposed the ISS..."
"The what ?" George Low interrupted. For some reason he couldn't explain that accronym rang a bell.
"The Interim Space Station program. It is in effect, an evolutionary extension of Skylab.
"Why interim, anyway ?"
"The OART engineers applied the term interim to their eight-and-half-year program because they intend for it to lead from Skylab to a permanent Space Station through evolutionary, gradual, and step-wise spacecraft systems development.
"Beginning about three years after the third and final Skylab crew returned to Earth, a new interim station would reach LEO every two and a half years. Each would be staffed continuously for from 360 to 420 days." Low had a mixed expression on his face.
"Gimme a break. You are talking about, what, four more Skylabs ? With what Saturn V ?"
"Hum, well, their solution was to end U.S. lunar exploration with Apollo 15 so that the Saturn V rockets earmarked for missions 16, 17, 18, and 19 could be used to launch all these Skylabs."
To Tischler surprise Low was not upset. "Those guys are visionnary." he sighed. "I can tell you Nixon advisors intended to do that - stop Apollo after Apollo 15. Me and Fletcher fought that decision to the very end. At the expense of the shuttle and Fletcher himself." Tischler was aghast. Though bargaining, he thought.
"And now the best part." he continued, smiling. "They went so far as to acknowledge that the Station/Shuttle Program might be delayed or abandoned in favor of some new space goal before the interim station program ran its course."
Low face as Tischler spoke those words was memorable. "For planning purposes, however, they offered a timeline in which NASA’s permanent Station became operational in late 1987, about six years after the Shuttle’s maiden flight and a little more than three years after the last interim station crew returned to Earth."
"Wait a minute, they said the shuttle would fly only in 1981 ?" Low had a bizarre feeling that once again he could not explain.
"Yes. Based on their own NASA flight schedule, the reusable Space Shuttle would begin flights in late 1981 only.
In keeping with this year budget, the OART engineers assumed a steady NASA annual budget of $3.3 billion throughout the interim station program. They estimated that each interim station would cost $2 billion, of which about $330 million would be spent on hardware development, $500 million on experiments, and $1.6 billion on spacecraft hardware. Their program would cost an average of about $500 million annually"
"Fine calculations. Skylab cost $2.5 billion and a production run, even small, would have unit cost drop. How many Skylab did they foresaw ?"
"Four of them - called Interim Space Station -A, -B, -C and -D.
"ISS-A would operate in a a 245-nautical-mile orbit inclined 28.5° relative to Earth’s equator. In fact it would be built from Skylab B itself. There would be no Apollo Telescope mount and it would weight 57 tons plus a 30-ton growth allowance."
"What would the logistic vehicle be without the shuttle ?"
"Apollo command and service modules."
"What launchers ? Titan IIIM or Saturn IB ?"
"None of them, rather an hybrid of the two - three Titan solids with a Saturn S-IVB above them. They say it would cost $80 million to develop, to launch as much as 28.7-ton to a 245-nm orbit at 28.5° of inclination. As for the Apollo its service module would be transformed. Forget the six fuel tanks grouped around a big engine; a couple of smaller tanks and engine borrowed from the Lunar Module would do the job. With only two tanks four bays would be available for cargo. The Apollo would be capable of transporting a total of about 10 tons of supplies and equipment."
"10 tons" Low said, surprised. "How about that." It stroke him as the shuttle original payload before the Air Force come into the program.
"Yeah. And it would cost $100 million to develop. Cargo items as large as 3.5 feet wide by 12 feet long could be removed from the Service Module bays and moved into the space station.
The issue however is that cargo could only be transfered by spacewalking astronauts. Or perhaps they could use a robotic arm ?"
Low nodded. Test of the shuttle robotic arm on an Apollo had been proposed.
"I suppose that, as usual without a shuttle the only items retrieved from orbit would have to be small enough to fit into the Apollo along the astronauts." Low sighed.
"Spot on. And now the schedule and missions.
"ISS-A would be launched early 1976 and dedicated to biotechnology research - a centrifuge and a behavioural laboratory. Three missions would man it for a year after what much like Skylab it would be worn out and abandonned in favour of ISS-B.
"The first three-man ISS-B crew would arrive for a 90-day stint beginning in July 1978, then a second three-man crew would reach the station a month later (August 1978).
The resulting six-man crew would work together for 60 days (September - October), then the first three-man crew would return to Earth.
A third three-man crew would arrive almost immediately (early November) to replace them. Thirty days later, the second crew would return to Earth and a fourth would replace them.
The station main mission would be to perform experimental Earth surveys - agriculture, forestry, geography; geology/mineralogy; hydrology/water resources; oceanography and meteorology. The station would revolve around the Earth in an orbit inclined 50° relative to the equator, so that it could pass over the “most populated and agriculturally productive areas of the Earth. Aboard would be 19 experimental sensors covering the spectrum from ultraviolet through visible light to infrared and microwave. The crews would also continue biomedical experiments.
The seventh three-man ISS-B crew would return to Earth in July 1979 and not be replaced, and the eighth and last three-man crew would splash down a month later, about 390 days after ISS-B reached space."
"So ISS-B would be over in, what, September 1979 ?"
"Yes. Replaced by ISS-C, scheduled for launch in January 1981 with ISS-D following it in orbit in July 1983."
"On what would be the last Saturn V rocket." Low gruntled.
"That's it. ISS -C and -D are pretty similar. Each would have a full crew complement of nine, making more challenging NASA’s reliance on the three-man Apollo for crew rotation and resupply."
"Still no Shuttle ?" Low asked. "I thought those pessimistics had it fly in 1981. Or perhaps in their universe it was also abandonned." he said dryly.
"Nope. Aparently they elected - in their own words, for the sake of simplicity - not to consider using it for ISS-C and ISS-D crew rotation and resupply.
Which results in monthly Apollo launches in January, February, and March 1981 to bring the station population to nine.
Only a month after its third crew arrived, its first crew would complete its 90-day stint on board the station and would return to Earth. NASA would immediately launch a fourth crew to replace them. ISS-C and ISS-D would each receive 12 three-man crews. The stations would support nine men for 360 of the 420 days each was occupied."
Low made rapid calculations. "36 Apollos over a decade. Pretty hefty flight rate."
Tischler nodded.
"So we have an ISS-A for biotechnology research and ISS-B for Earth survey. What about the other two ?"
"ISS-C - materials processing and manufacture. Taking advantage of weightlessness and nearly pure vacuum, the astronauts would manufacture large crystals, exotic composite materials, and biological compounds impossible (or at least very difficult) to create under terrestrial conditions. Oh, and they would also try artificial gravity by spinning the spent S-II. There would also have some Isotope Brayton nuclear power units aboard to boost the station electrical power by six to fifteen kilowatt.
"ISS-D then ?"
"Astronomy, with a trio of free-flying astronomy modules as well as instruments mounted on the station - cosmic rays, solar and stellar astronomy with some big 3 meter mirror."
"And all this end in 1987, in fifteen years. That's impressive. An interesting blueprint for the future"
"Surely. NASA would have accrued the equivalent of more than two years of permanent Space Station biomedical data and operations experience from its four interim stations. This would, they concluded, constitute the interim station program’s chief benefit to U.S. spaceflight."
Tischler did not knew what to say. But Low had taken notes, and obviously his brain was already at work.
"Thank you Adelbert. Tell those OART guys they did an excellent work, somewhat prescient at times. Their schedule may be pertinent." Tischler approved and left the room.
Now alone, for a couple of minutes George Low stood near his office window, staring at the Washington landscape outside. Two months before - the day the shuttle had died - James Fletcher had stood there, too, trying to guess what future of NASA would be.
Low felt the OART plan was a good start - a serie of evolutionary space station, Salyut-style.
Skylab however had two major flaws. It had deliberately be designed as a very short life space station. That issue could be solved.
There was a bigger problem, however.
Skylab was born at Marshall, and that was not acceptable in Houston. Low knew that Faget and his clique had little consideration for Skylab - it fact they had thrown that bone to Marshall only because they were extremely busy with Apollo (and hopefully, with the shuttle).
If NASA next great thing was to be a space station, there was no way Houston wouldn't be at least lead center of that program.
Then if the station was also a derivative of Skylab, there was no way Marshall wouldn't be lead center either !
Low sighed. The last thing NASA needed after the shuttle debacle was a sterile inter-center knife fight. He was not sure Beggs clearly realised how serious the situation was. They HAD to keep Marshall and Houston under control at any cost.
Nota Bene: this is adapted from David Portree WIRED blog entry here
- Archibald
- Word Count: 2.3k