alternatehistory.com
1972: NASA hell of a year (3)
tying up the loose ends - Mathematica, Heiss, and Morgenstern
January 28, 1972
Princeton
Klaus Heiss looked exhausted.
Damn, how many times since the man did not slept ?
Oskar Morgenstern worried about the young Austrian economist.
Heiss was evidently on the brink of collapse. He had spent every drop of energy defending his economic case for the shuttle – to no avail.
The full report was to be issued this very day of January, but it was dead on arrival, just like the shuttle it defended.
"I face a brick wall." Heiss complained. "Fletcher is out, and George Low is not the right man – guess why he refused the job ? He is not a political wizard like James Webb. And now fucking Walter Mondale is campaigning again, with its usual load of angered space scientists – frustrated astronaut Brian O'Leary, frustrated Apollo scientist Tommy Gold, and of course the grant old James van Allen. Damn them all ! That, and you have to figure than even within our ranks there are vibrant critics. Do you remember that bright engineer we hired for the technical side of our study, since you and I are economists, not rocket scientists ?"
"Hell, yes. James Preston Layton."
"Yeah, Pres Layton. Well, can you believe it ? He picked up some holes in my analysis !"
"What kind of critics ?"
"He told me I was naive, that although my calculation were by themselves right, the raw data I worked from was wrong.
Listen: when NASA Bob Lindley committed ourselves - Mathematica - to an analysis of the shuttle economics, I told him I needed data.
So Lindley turned to the Aerospace Corp., which had strong ties to the Air Force and was widely known as a center of expertise.
Lockheed, builder of the Corona spacecraft, took charge of work on payload effects. My analysis is based from these companies data. Well, Layton told me that data I used was incorrect at best.
Takes Lockheed, for example: they told me rides on shuttles would be so much smoother than expendables that satellites may be build from very ordinary components - not space-hardened.
Preston Layton told me this was foolish. Similarly, Pres had its own inquiry with Comsat and civilian satellite builders, and according to him they are not very interested in retrieve and repair of their birds. So I went to my NASA supervisor Robert Lindley, told him about Layton worries, and he just laughed in my face.
So what should I do ?"
"Well,Klaus, we are working for NASA and not for Layton. No ?"
"My point exactly. But Layton took it pretty bad – our friendship stopped right there."
Heiss had regrets in his voice. What a mess.
"And then come the AIAA – the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. With the SST and the shuttle dead, and Lockheed on the brink of bankruptcy, they decided to be more active, and to conduct technical assessments of big projects.
Guess what they chose to assess first ?"
"Let me try. The space shuttle ?"
"Correct. And, as you probably understood, they picked up our very Pres Layton to conduct that assessment. He is a prominent member of the AIAA, you see.
"But the shuttle is on hold for three months now. Will the AIAA really beat that dead horse ?"
"Hell, no. They have apparently given up."
"So, what's the problem with Pres ?"
"Oh, in the process he enlisted Jerry Grey, and together they picked up some disgruntled anti shuttle people that feel free to talk now that is had been cancelled. Last week NASA put juicy Phase C contracts – when you actually start to cut metal – on hold indefinitely.
Meanwhile while doing preliminary work on that doomed AIAA assessment Grey find NASA own Pres Layton - the whistleblower no one listen.
Adelbert Tischler – that's the man. Together they dropped the technical assessment in favour of a popularly-written book to be published as soon as possible. Their enterprise is made easier by the shuttle cancellation, since aerospace workers no longer fear to damage a now cancelled program.
“I can tell you that this Grey - Tischler - Pres Layton trio might be devastating especially if it intersect with Mondale own anti shuttle campaign. And all those bastards are throwing shit at my shuttle analysis !" Heiss shouted, his face twisted in disgust.
Morgenstern spoke quietly.
"Klaus, you're the brightest economist I've seen for a long time. I won't betray you. Yes, the shuttle is lost. But you still have to defend yourself and all the work you've done.
The reality is that NASA is a pain in the ass to deal with. Plus, who can really prove your analysis wrong ? For God sake, you were the first to tackle an awfully difficult economic case - trying to determine the break haven point between expendables and reusable space launch vehicles. Noone did this before you !"
Heiss looked at his boss, his morale evidently higher.
"Indeed. Damn the shuttle, and damn NASA; it doesn't matter. The truth is, the core of this analysis show that the RLV thin line is around forty flights or payloads a year.
Below, you need expendables; above, reusable launch vehicles works better.
Until my last breath I'll never change a line of the analysis there, on your desk." Heiss thumped on the pile of volumes with his fist.
"Whatever amount of shit they throw at me, I have the conviction that the work was done correctly. It was NASA that didn't knew what they wanted."
"And don't forget they loathed us from day one" Morgenstern tone was glacial. "It was Weinberger bureau of budget that committed NASA to ourselves. Don't you remember ? before October 1971 they didn't cared about our work, obsessed as they were by their Shuttle – Saturn hybrid.
"And then, suddenly, when Weinberger chose Big Gemini, they panicked, and hurried toward our shuttle – the cheapest full-size orbiter in town" Heiss answered. "What a bunch of assholes. It's kind of funny they ended trapped with what they loathed so much – another dumb capsule !"
He laughed, evidently relieved. Morgenstern was also smiling.
"Klaus, still interested by that job at the Morgan Bank ?"
Heiss took a deep breath. Despite all the suffering he had endured doing the damn shuttle study, space was still appealing him. Space, yes, but not NASA. Enough was enough. Geronimo.
"Count me in !" He shaked Morgenstern hand.
Grey - Tischler - Layton OTL (1979) book, Enterprise. Highly recommended.
January 28, 1972
Princeton
Klaus Heiss looked exhausted.
Damn, how many times since the man did not slept ?
Oskar Morgenstern worried about the young Austrian economist.
Heiss was evidently on the brink of collapse. He had spent every drop of energy defending his economic case for the shuttle – to no avail.
The full report was to be issued this very day of January, but it was dead on arrival, just like the shuttle it defended.
"I face a brick wall." Heiss complained. "Fletcher is out, and George Low is not the right man – guess why he refused the job ? He is not a political wizard like James Webb. And now fucking Walter Mondale is campaigning again, with its usual load of angered space scientists – frustrated astronaut Brian O'Leary, frustrated Apollo scientist Tommy Gold, and of course the grant old James van Allen. Damn them all ! That, and you have to figure than even within our ranks there are vibrant critics. Do you remember that bright engineer we hired for the technical side of our study, since you and I are economists, not rocket scientists ?"
"Hell, yes. James Preston Layton."
"Yeah, Pres Layton. Well, can you believe it ? He picked up some holes in my analysis !"
"What kind of critics ?"
"He told me I was naive, that although my calculation were by themselves right, the raw data I worked from was wrong.
Listen: when NASA Bob Lindley committed ourselves - Mathematica - to an analysis of the shuttle economics, I told him I needed data.
So Lindley turned to the Aerospace Corp., which had strong ties to the Air Force and was widely known as a center of expertise.
Lockheed, builder of the Corona spacecraft, took charge of work on payload effects. My analysis is based from these companies data. Well, Layton told me that data I used was incorrect at best.
Takes Lockheed, for example: they told me rides on shuttles would be so much smoother than expendables that satellites may be build from very ordinary components - not space-hardened.
Preston Layton told me this was foolish. Similarly, Pres had its own inquiry with Comsat and civilian satellite builders, and according to him they are not very interested in retrieve and repair of their birds. So I went to my NASA supervisor Robert Lindley, told him about Layton worries, and he just laughed in my face.
So what should I do ?"
"Well,Klaus, we are working for NASA and not for Layton. No ?"
"My point exactly. But Layton took it pretty bad – our friendship stopped right there."
Heiss had regrets in his voice. What a mess.
"And then come the AIAA – the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. With the SST and the shuttle dead, and Lockheed on the brink of bankruptcy, they decided to be more active, and to conduct technical assessments of big projects.
Guess what they chose to assess first ?"
"Let me try. The space shuttle ?"
"Correct. And, as you probably understood, they picked up our very Pres Layton to conduct that assessment. He is a prominent member of the AIAA, you see.
"But the shuttle is on hold for three months now. Will the AIAA really beat that dead horse ?"
"Hell, no. They have apparently given up."
"So, what's the problem with Pres ?"
"Oh, in the process he enlisted Jerry Grey, and together they picked up some disgruntled anti shuttle people that feel free to talk now that is had been cancelled. Last week NASA put juicy Phase C contracts – when you actually start to cut metal – on hold indefinitely.
Meanwhile while doing preliminary work on that doomed AIAA assessment Grey find NASA own Pres Layton - the whistleblower no one listen.
Adelbert Tischler – that's the man. Together they dropped the technical assessment in favour of a popularly-written book to be published as soon as possible. Their enterprise is made easier by the shuttle cancellation, since aerospace workers no longer fear to damage a now cancelled program.
“I can tell you that this Grey - Tischler - Pres Layton trio might be devastating especially if it intersect with Mondale own anti shuttle campaign. And all those bastards are throwing shit at my shuttle analysis !" Heiss shouted, his face twisted in disgust.
Morgenstern spoke quietly.
"Klaus, you're the brightest economist I've seen for a long time. I won't betray you. Yes, the shuttle is lost. But you still have to defend yourself and all the work you've done.
The reality is that NASA is a pain in the ass to deal with. Plus, who can really prove your analysis wrong ? For God sake, you were the first to tackle an awfully difficult economic case - trying to determine the break haven point between expendables and reusable space launch vehicles. Noone did this before you !"
Heiss looked at his boss, his morale evidently higher.
"Indeed. Damn the shuttle, and damn NASA; it doesn't matter. The truth is, the core of this analysis show that the RLV thin line is around forty flights or payloads a year.
Below, you need expendables; above, reusable launch vehicles works better.
Until my last breath I'll never change a line of the analysis there, on your desk." Heiss thumped on the pile of volumes with his fist.
"Whatever amount of shit they throw at me, I have the conviction that the work was done correctly. It was NASA that didn't knew what they wanted."
"And don't forget they loathed us from day one" Morgenstern tone was glacial. "It was Weinberger bureau of budget that committed NASA to ourselves. Don't you remember ? before October 1971 they didn't cared about our work, obsessed as they were by their Shuttle – Saturn hybrid.
"And then, suddenly, when Weinberger chose Big Gemini, they panicked, and hurried toward our shuttle – the cheapest full-size orbiter in town" Heiss answered. "What a bunch of assholes. It's kind of funny they ended trapped with what they loathed so much – another dumb capsule !"
He laughed, evidently relieved. Morgenstern was also smiling.
"Klaus, still interested by that job at the Morgan Bank ?"
Heiss took a deep breath. Despite all the suffering he had endured doing the damn shuttle study, space was still appealing him. Space, yes, but not NASA. Enough was enough. Geronimo.
"Count me in !" He shaked Morgenstern hand.
Grey - Tischler - Layton OTL (1979) book, Enterprise. Highly recommended.
- Archibald
- Word Count: 1.1k