alternatehistory.com

October 9, 1971
Eugene Fubini and Alexander Flax had a meeting with Bureau of Budget officials. Latest news from Caspar Weinberger office did not exactly pleased Flax.

"James Fletcher is a wise man."Flax told Weinberger. "You know why ?"
"No."
"He didn't put all his eggs into a single basket. Look at this: he asked you for an orbiter with an external tank, and then proposed two options for the booster. He obviously wanted the Saturn, but that would be expensive. Being a wise man, Fletcher evidently had a fallback option: a pressure-fed dumb booster, strong enough to fall into the ocean under parachutes, unmanned."

"Indeed. And I, Weinberger, told Fletcher last week I would oppose the Saturn-shuttle but not the big dumb booster. I can live with that shuttle. You realizes that my decision amounts to a go ahead to the program by the Bureau of Budget – and, sooner than latter, by the President. So, what's your problem, Dr Flax ? That might be a viable shuttle no ?"

"No it isn't. We have no experience with pressure-fed rockets. But I'll tell you where the real problem is. You have been mistaken: the problem is not the booster. The main issue is with the orbiter: that thing is too big. It is that massive orbiter that, in turn, makes the tank and the booster bigger. All three elements in the shuttle system are tied together one way or another. Change one and you change the other two."

Weinberger was evidently confused.

"But how do we ended with such a big orbiter then ? Isn't the Air Force responsible for that ?"
"It is, and I'll tell you the exact story behind that. The exact reason why the Air Force insist on such a big payload bay, that in turn drives the orbiter to a huge size and cost."

Flax made a pause, then resumed talking, evidently chosing his words carefully.

"For five years I, Alexander Flax, ran a highly secretive military space agency called the National Reconnaissance Office. It was spun off from the Air Force a decade ago to deal with spy satellites snapping pictures of the Soviet Union.
Our optical spy satellites fell into two broad categories.
The KH-4 Corona scan the Soviet Union at medium resolution – what matters is broad mapping, not details.

The second category of spysats deals with detailed pictures – details as small as some inches. That's the KH-8 Gambit.

We launched a bunch of short lived reconnaissance satellites over the years, but recently we shifted into the exact opposite direction. The NRO recently launched a new breed of spy satellite, called the KH-9, to succeed the KH-4 Corona in the broad mapping role.

It is a monster of satellite, but still lacks an essential element: we still can't beam the photos electronically to the ground, real time.

We have to place the developed film into a return capsule, drop that into the atmosphere, catch that with an Hercules cargo aircraft, pull it onboard, then bring the film down to Washington for analysis. A very cumbersome process we hope to eliminate with the next generation of spy satellite, at the end of this decade. Our objective is near real-time transmission of electronic pictures."

Fubini and Flax made a pause, judging the effect of their speeches on Weinberger.

"Let's go back to the shuttle. That KH-8 successor that could beam the pictures to the ground, real time - well, it is, too, an enormous satellite. Dimension wise, that KH-11 is 60 ft long by 15 feet wide, with a mass of 65 000 pounds..."

"Which, by a bizarre coincidence, match the limits the Air Force set to the shuttle payload bay. What a coincidence !" Weinberger smiled.

"There you are. Now perhaps you think that, as a former head of the NRO agency, and Nixon technical advisor on the shuttle, I (and Eugene) should fight to the last end to keep the shuttle bay wide enough to launch those KH-11 babies.

To make it short, I should be happy that your Bureau of Budget and NASA agree on that full size Shuttle orbiter !"
"Well, that would be logical." Weinberger nodded. "But...you don’t." he smiled.
"Bad luck: there are some little issues with all this. Eugene ?"
"Indeed. Issue number one is that the Titan currently does a good job launching spy satellites.

Problem number two is that the Air Force had man rated the Titan for the Manned Orbital Laboratory.

And a last issue is that, at current flight rates, the throw-away Titan has better economics than any shuttle concept !

Because there's not enough satellites to launch, as of today it is cheaper to throw away rockets than to reuse them, Shuttle-style. C'est la vie."

Weinberger was confused.

"But the Air Force need the big orbiter to ferry KH-11s into orbit no ?"
"No. Let's put the problem into a different perspective. KH-11s are so big they drive the shuttle dimension - and cost - to the roof. Now I ask, why bother launching the KH-11 within a shuttle payload bay when a Titan III can do the job earlier and cheaper ? Have a smaller shuttle that does not launch the big spy sat, for example a space plane with a payload of 40 000 pounds only."

"That won't work" Weinberger reacted.
"Why ?"
"Because this amount to a mixed fleet of Titan and Shuttle, and this mean not enough satellites remain to justify the shuttle economically. Because, you see, when NASA officials try justifying the shuttle on economic grounds, they base their estimations on the number of satellites launched over the last decade.
That probably included what you told me minutes ago - that bunch of short lived reconnaissance satellites. Hell, this mean that your NRO accounted for a large percentage of the satellites we launched over the last decade ! How about that ?"

Flax answered cautiously

"In some way you're right. Early batches of NRO spy satellites had a very short lifespan, and a high failure rate, so we launched dozens of them. Can't tell you more. What I can tell you is that those days are over: the next generation is the exact opposite. Big, heavy, expensive and with a long useful life. So there’s much less things to launch as a result.
I insist that a mixed fleet of Titan and shuttle would be a wise thing to have. And I'd like to develop this idea further."
"How ?"

It was Fubini that answered.

"Now follow my reasoning again. We could have a fleet of Titan that would launch NASA shuttle and NRO spy satellites indifferently - and separately. The KH-11 would ride to space a top a Titan, but not into the shuttle payload bay. That's my glider concept - kind of scaled-up DynaSoar.

Imagine an unpowered shuttle a top a multistage expendable booster that push it into orbit. But the Titan that would launch this glider is a bigger variant, because the fat DynaSoar still weights 100 000 pounds. Martin call it the III-L. But that's apparently too big for your spy satellite no ?"
"Indeed. The KH-9 and KH-11 are massive, but not this point. They are launched by a standard Titan III-C."
"So we would have two Titan variants then, the usual III-C and that monster III-L to launch your Glider. No ?" Weinberger liked that debate.
"Exact." Flax smiled. "Now what I'll propose won't please Eugene. But why bother with this glider ?"
"Uh ?"
"What's the usefulness of it ? Can you really justify it ? Do you think NASA would accept that ?"
Fubini reaction was of irritation, followed by resignation.

"I don't think so. Even a pragmatic manager like their deputy administrator - George Low - would not accept this Glider. I think their opinion would be "Hell, this is a step backward, back to that DynaSoar McNamara cancelled a decade ago."
"But then, Alexander, what option remains if the KH-11-sized-orbiter and the glider are eliminated altogether ?"
"Oh, there's another option no one think about. It is not a shuttle, but nevertheless remains a space station logistic vehicle - in fact the cheapest of them all ! Oh, and it can fly into orbit a top a Titan III-C, just like the NRO big spy satellites. No need for the III-L."
"What's that thing ?" Weinberger was confused again. He couldn't figure what the hell Flax was talking about.
"Big Gemini." Flax said "I told you it was the cheapest of the space station logistic vehicles, but not a shuttle. That might please you, Mr Weinberger: manned spaceflight continues without the burden of a big spaceplane. How about that ?"
"Indeed. We discussed the matter last August with the President. He doesn't want to give manned spaceflight. But he doesn't like the shuttle either.

Fubini didn't said anything. Hell, he might be right. Since my Glider was not exactly received with great enthusiasm by those NASA guys... the main roadblock is Dale Myers.

"But wasn't the size of the shuttle payload bay also driven by NASA space station modules ?" Weinberger wanted to be sure he had factored everything in the equation.
"You're right." Flax said. "But what space station are you talking about ? None planned as of today - not with the shuttle already busting the budget."
"Gentlemen, in the end you are telling me that manned space flight and the shuttle are different matters." Weinberger said.
"You get it. As for military satellites, the actual boosters are doing a fine job."

Weinberger aparently had enough information to make a decision, and went away.

As they concluded the meeting, Flax had a little smile on his face. Even Weinberger had no idea how big the National Reconnaissance Office really was. Billions of dollars had been spend on spy satellites, the overall program was nearly as important as Apollo.

Of course there had been failures, and cancellations, and the hardware they left was so advanced it could not decently be destroyed. It was instead stored at a warehouse in a remote corner of a military base... somewhere in the desert. Flax had been there a couple of times.

A major surprise - if it ever leaks to the world - will be the extend of the cooperation between NASA and the National Reconnaissance Office, Fubini thought as he watched Weinberger leaving.

It was just breathtaking to think how much help the civilian space agency had benefited from the space spies; it made for some amazing stories no sci-fi writter could even imagine in his right mind. It was better than James Bond.