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Upon meeting in the the neutral ground of Iconium (the closest Timurid garrison), two monarchs decided the terms of submission. Bearing rich gifts of gold, silk and various precious metals, Constantine entered the garrison hoping that he could soothe the warlord into merely paying tribute until the aging man died, which judging from his reports of Timur’s age, wasn’t that far along the line.

According to historians of the day (both Timurid, Turkmen and Roman) the meeting went along surprisingly well. Timur was, for all his many faults, a cordial intellectual well versed in history and the arts, and frequently surrounded with historians and scholars. Even the highly biased Roman sources had to note that despite being a barbarian from the far off steppes, Timur had an ‘air of civilization’ and ‘a Romanness about him’ (granted this is also their excuse to give damage control over the embarrassment at bending the knee). After an initial chat, the conversation drifted towards business, something Timur was known to smugly comment on how he held the power and could theoretically demolish the Roman Empire whenever he wanted. The emperor was said to have merely grit his teeth and endured the humiliation.

Nonetheless, the demands set forth by Timur were surprisingly light- relatively speaking. Timur had been true to his word to those who showed submission, as with the beylik of Karaman for instance, and held back his fury. There would be no sacking and rampaging, merely a set of demarcations and orders. After a week of bargaining the fate of millions, a treaty was drafted and ratified by the two monarchs. The terms included:

-Formal vassalage would be imposed.

-Romania would pull back her troops and cede territory in her far eastern areas to be reorganized into new Timurid provinces as had been done to Karaman’s central Anatolian region. Perfect for horse archers and other nomads, it would serve as a prime recruiting and training ground for new warriors- and an excellent source to strike at the heart of the Asian regions should the Romans have second thoughts on their relationship with the Timurid empire.

Once again, the Roman frontier shifted from Phrygia to Lydia much like it had been during the Nicene Exile. But more accurately, Claudiopolis would become the empire’s far eastern frontier city along with a chain of cities ‘curving’ around the border. These included Synaos, Philadelphia, Laodicea and Stauropolis, and so forth.

-Additionally, Roman forces in Western Anatolia were not permitted to build new fortifications on the frontier. As a vassal of the Timurid Empire defence was delegated to the Amir, and thus, fortifications were unnecessary.

-In exchange for the ‘leniency’ of keeping the western coastal cities, Romania would be expected to provide a hefty yearly monetary tribute to Timurid authorities. Adding on to the monetary tribute, Timur imposed an intellectual and artistic one. In concordance with previous policy throughout the Timurid empire, the Amir demanded a relocation of hundreds of scholars, artisans, and engineers to be relocated to Samarqand.

-Romania must not interfere with the affairs of states under Timurid vassalage and influence. Effectively, this dramatically curbed Roman presence from her network of clients in the Pontic Coast and allies in the Caucus. To do so would be a tantamount to a declaration of war with the Timurid State.

-Timurid merchants would be able to conduct their businesses within the Roman Empire customs free.

One can see from this that Timur primarily intended to use the empire as another source of income. For all his faults, ignorance was not one of them. The amir knew of Rome’s history, and how she had revived herself into a wealthy state with half the land they once had. He had also been aware of their status as a gateway to western goods through trade. Therefore, the quick, bloodless, and most importantly, willing submission of Romania came at a very pleasant surprise. The meeting at Iconium was merely to shift the current situation into something more favorable to him. Keeping the plateau exposed the Western regions provided a sword of Damocles to threaten the Imperials with, as well as a launchpad for any future invasions. And of course, it added on to his prestige with new acquisitions of engineers, artists, teachers and other priceless works that Constantinople held.

Timur remained in Iconium for a fortnight, before venturing off to his capital, intent on preparing the empire for his successor (right up until the Northern Yuan called for help). The emperor and his party meanwhile returned to Constantinople barely a day after the treaty had been signed, deeply embittered and humiliated, but with a small comfort in knowing he had managed to keep some of the hard won gains of his empire and secure its future (and that Timur would die in a few years, leading to a potential revocation if and when a succession crisis arrives. Also, if he starts another war then that's another excuse to ignore the terms of treaty). The general mood in the court was similar, and contributed to a decline in his popularity. He was now seen as weak by many, especially with several in the military elite who argued for to fight to the death. Conversely, he managed to remain some level of good will with the imperial bureaucracy and the trade monopoly thanks to securing long standing Roman interests in Western Anatolia, with the small price of trading off the (from their perspective) worthless plateau. Issues of tribute and customs were rationalized as being able to be paid off with the rich cities of the coast, and the expanded hinterland. (It also helps the Romans paid less and less each year as they knew Timur was far away and wouldn’t realistically march an army to get them) There was some truth to this, as the increased Roman regions held well an estimated population of well over 1 million people, granting the state a whopping ~30 - ~40% increase in the tax base. Indeed the expanded lands and subjects helped whether the price of freedom with extra to spare.

But what of the third major pillar in Roman politics: the church? How had they taken the deal? The answer was a near universal condemnation. The Patriarch had been furious, monks spoke out condemning the matter- even the Popes, all 3 of them, had voiced disagreement with Constantine’s actions. The reasons are obvious when one thinks about it: Bowing to an infidel barbarian; leaving populations of Christians to the hands of said infidel barbarian; news of massacres of Assyrians and Copts and Nestorians; giving away church memorabilia and workers (icons, painters, gold, etc) and other treasures to placate a madman- all of it was simply unbecoming of a man who held the office of Roman Emperor.

The political isolation of these two major power blocs would see to the downfall of Constantine XI, and tarr his reputation for much of history. But it would not be quick, Constantine was a crafty man who knew how power politics worked and did make attempts to mollify these groups, such as paying less tribute each year, rallying support by presenting himself as the only savior they had against the Neo-Mongols and other such things. But that did not stop conspiracy from brewing. 6 years later, when word of Timur’s death had reached the Empire 6 years later, all bets were off.

Speaking of Timur, you might be wondering what happened to him after cementing redrawing the map of Anatolia. Well, he did whatever any compulsive gambler did and went after a bigger gamble. This time, China. Arriving in early 1406 with a recuperated army fresh from recruiting many Turkmen tribes in Anatolia and northern Mesopotamia, Timurid forces linked up with the remnants of the Northern Yuan to re-establish Mongol control of China. He would never succeed, but he did bloody the nascent Ming and knock them out of the Gansu Corridor. Further Timurid successes include sacking many cities (including Beijing at one point) and inflicting varying defeats. However, the Ming had the advantage in numbers and firepower. After a long string of success, the main Timurid/Mongol army was cornered and massacred in a long, brutal decisive victory. Timur escaped, but succumbed to his wounds shortly after. Meanwhile, the Ming had managed to deal with northern threat, and would quickly recuperate in the coming decades.

Timur’s death was not well received all throughout the Timurid domains. While succession was unquestioned: Timur’s first son Jahangir Mirza was appointed the next Amir and crowned in Samarqand, this would be the highpoint of his reign. For Jahangir was unable to cement control; he lacked Timur’s force of will and military prowess to cement control. Furthermore, his rule was immediately shaken with revolts in trying to hold such a far off empire- one that stretched from Iconium to the Indus and had very few institutions to glue the territory together. Successive revolts would wrack the Jahangir’s domain, and after a few disastrous campaigns, he decided to pull back his forces and cement control of what he could hold. Sogdia, Afghanistan and Baluchistan would remain the Timurid powerbase. The remainder of Iran that was held by the Timurids would be relegated to a series of frontier marches (ironic given Imperial Iran’s treatment of Central Asia) in constant low level war against western invaders. Everything else was lost.

But how did that empire disintegrate?

It started with the Qara Qoyunlu. Initially beaten into submission during Timur’s campaigns into Persia, Syria and Anatolia, they yet again emerged out of the woodwork in rebellion. With most of the Timurid army east and far away, this time they were successful in throwing off the foreign yoke. However, unlike before this dynasty was unable to establish control of its former heartland in Azerbaijan and Armenia- instead these would go to the Chobanids. Qara Qoyunlu would have to content itself with the Levant and Cilicia, and whatever chunk of Anatolia they would try to rend from the Karamanids from time to time. Being that this is a rather unstable geographic position, Qara Qoyunlu would be hampered in its efforts to expand and thrive.

The Chobanids were another Turkic dynasty that had emerged in the aftermath of the Ilkhanate’s collapse. Basing themselves in northeastern Iran, this dynasty would move quickly to establish themselves as the local Iranian hegemon. They invaded south, taking much of Mesopotamia and pushing the then rising Qara Qoyunlu into Syria. From there, they began a push towards Iran, intent on seizing the plateau, and later into India proper. The Chobanids are interesting because like many of the Turkmen descended groups in the region, were Shi’ite. And like another important Shi’a state- the Fatimids, they would be known for constantly shifting their power base east as peripheral groups pushed them out of their former strongholds. But that's another story.

Egypt meanwhile rode out the storm with comparatively little hassle. Timurid Egypt, ruled by Timur’s fourth son Shahrukh Mirza was blessed with having Timurs most capable heir as governor. Ironically it was Timur’s dismissiveness of his fourth son for being, in his words ‘meek’, that cemented his dynasty’s place in history. Shahrukh was in many ways an intellectual like his father, but unlike Timur he had studied the one field Timur ignored: Economics. Shahrukh fully understood the importance of healthy commerce, a well maintained infrastructure, and stability. In response to the news of rebellion, he made no moves against it, realizing that such things would be futile, as Ibn Khaldun predicted on imperial peripheries. Instead he began offering land and gold to whoever would serve in his army, and hunkered down in Cairo, smacking down any attempts at invasion from the Qara Qoyunlu while he took the time to establish authority. Shahrukh’s long, stable, and wise rule would see an Egypt return to its status as regional powerhouse with its infrastructure rebuilt, its army enlarged, its wealth expanded and its status as a major trade zone yet again confirmed.

But that’s quite the tangent. Back to Constantine and his increasingly shaky hold on power.

The few years after Timur had were one of consolidation and an extensive focus on the eastern territory. The events in Egypt had been yet another shock to the market and trade systems. Fortunately, this didn’t hurt the Romans as much as the Silk road trade, which had stabilized, but it did hurt many of their consumers in Italy and beyond. Due to that, revenue based on trade declined and a renewed focus on taxation was set forth. Here, the new territories would play a critical role. Their material wealth (which could be taxed by tolls on inter empire trade) along with huge tax base would cover the deficit in external trade.

Enforcing control however, was something that was more difficult than expected. Local elites did not like Rome’s indiscriminate taxation, far reaching bureaucracy, policy of sending out poor settlers from distant corners of their empire (predominantly from the urban poor), and the chafing imperial authority. Roman policy wasn’t exactly good for ingratiating with local power structures, even when much of the populace was still Christian and Greek, or had elements of traditional Roman culture that one might appeal too. As one might expect, there were more than a few revolts here and there for those who wanted to return the clock back to Turkish rule, but Rome had the superior army and organization. Therefore, the next few years would see a massive military presence in Asia minor, with the bulk of the army (at least 20,000 troops) stationed in Anatolia.

Outside of Asia Minor, Constantinople dealt with the aftermath of their war. The former Aydinid navy had by now been fully integrated with the Roman navy and much of the Germiyanid bureaucracy was slowly being co-opted to serve imperial need (after a period of retraining and shuffling around of course.) The border with Karaman, demarcated by Timur himself remained that way and relations were still cordial. In Europe, the Emperor offered aid to the Tsar in his wars against rebels (mainly using his mercenary troops) and payments to Genoa were begrudgingly continued. (It is worth noting that by now the bulk of payments to Genoa were completed and the merchant empire was reeling from depression caused a disruption in Egyptian trade, thus deeply enjoyed their payments from Rome) This tightened the budget to a nearly unbreakable level, but Constantine held firm. Until Timur died.

After that, all hell broke lose. Without the Mongol boogeyman, the military faction unhappy with Constantine was able to make greater strides. Forging an alliance with the Church and a faction of bureaucrats that were unhappy to pay both Genoa and Timur at once. The groups began maneuvering against the emperor and planning the eventual coup. Through loyal contacts with the bureaucracy, Constantine had become aware of the coup, and managed to flee before he could be captured. Arriving in Savoy in winter of 1410, he vowed to retake his throne.

It is fortunate then a month later he was approached with an official Genoese envoy willing to make a bargain with him...
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