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1761

France

Although things had gone decently at sea for a few battles the past year, Paris was increasingly worried about the eventual loss of many of her colonies to the British. Word had arrived of Quebec City’s fall the prior year, and with presently no way to resupply New France, they knew Montreal would soon suffer the same fate. While some of the ships that had broken out of Rochefort could have been diverted to New France, Choiseul considered the Caribbean holdings far more valuable than vast plains of snow. India too might already be fallen based on Comte d’Ache’s last report (Paris had not yet gotten word of Bussey’s successes)

Spain too was alarmed at Quebec’s inevitable fall to Britain, and had thus been preparing for over a year for the now assured entry into an alliance and the war come spring. Though this of course, would come with the demand of France armies assisting in invading Portugal if they did not acquiesce to demands and in besieging Gibraltar.

More armies in the south to assist Spain meant more money. More money was needed to help Austria rebuild their own forces after Prussia’s upsetting victories. More money was needed to maintain a build-up of the navy to have even a chance against the British at sea. More money was needed to pay off Morocco and the Barbary states to redirect them against the British instead of France and her allies shipping in the Mediterranean, (and in the Atlantic but the British were the real problem there) and their aid would be somewhat useful against any renewed British operations in the Mediterranean and Gibraltar. Sardinia too was rattling its saber about the Italian provinces, while more money might have solved that issue as well, Louis XVI vetoed it, and thus far intimidating threats from France, Spain and Austria combined was enough to make them back down.

More money, more money, more money; and there was precious little of it to go around. Paris had done just about all it could to make the costs of the armies and navies more efficient, and while there was many successes there, it wasn’t going to be enough alone. After months of fierce debate, Louis XVI finally relented to a mild increase on the taxes of the nobility, above what had been first passed a few years ago. With even greater reluctance, he also finally relented to the first ever, small tax upon the church, to first go into effect in spring this year. (With the condition that it was to be removed exactly one year after peace was obtained)

Yet, no one was happy. The nobles prior quiet grumbling became more frequently voiced dissent, upset that they had to pay anything at all, and upset that they had to pay over five times what the church was paying. The peasantry and merchant classes upset that they were paying over ten times what the nobles were paying. Louis didn’t understand this, why become more upset when previously they were paying even more over in comparison to someone that was paying nothing. The church, while supporting the prior taxes (due to their continued exception) became more muted, and started their own grumbling once they lost that exception.

Other revenue came from continued loans, taxes, and tariffs on trade. The latter was ever dwindling to the Atlantic and India but managing to increase to the Levant. Though at the same time, France in their need to appease Austria, threatened to risk the ire of the Ottomans, if a delicate balance of interests were not maintained. It significantly did not help matters that unlike his father and predecessors, Louis the XVI, due to his Catholic leanings, and the Devouts still whispering in his ear, had little love for those not of the faith. If unchecked, in time it could threaten to undo the Franco-Ottoman alliance which had been revived by his grandfather Louis XIV and continued by his father Louis XV.

Spain

Anticipating a war with the British and resumption of the Family compact, Charles III had spent over a year building up his forces and ships. The time for action would come this spring. An ultimatum would be delivered to his niece Queen Maria I of Portugal on March 1st. She would both abandon alliance and trade with the British and enter into the Family Compact against them, or he would invade Portugal to enforce his will.

Austria

The defeats Austria had suffered at the hands of Fredrick last year were devastating. Entire armies and numerous guns would need to be rebuilt and replaced, and there simply were not the funds or ready materials to do so. Despite his victory, Fredrick was severely depleted, and spent the winter picking off low-risk targets in eastern Saxony. Maria Theresa was in a quandary, and extremely dependent on French subsidies and support if they were going to be able to get back into the war. France knew this too. At the beginning of the year, there had been rumors that Fredrick might be willing to withdraw from Saxony and return to status-quo antebellum. These rumors though would arrive too late to affect the current diplomatic proceeding in Versailles. Maria Theresa of course did not want this, perhaps if Austria did not currently control upper and middle Silesia, she might consider it. The war had been too costly in men, money and materials thus far; only Fredrick’s complete defeat would make it worthwhile. That was something easily possible should proceeding at Versailles be favorable, or if Russia, whose reason for her current actions were unknown, (apart from rumor of Empress Elizabeth’s demise) resent forces towards Berlin.

Sweden and Mecklenburg

Sweden and Mecklenburg were in the midst of being pushed back. Fredrick had gone after soft targets in western Pomerania and Brandenburg in addition to eastern Saxony and succeeded in recapturing all territory previously lost. Only a heavily reinforced Stettin and the islands to its north remained in Swedish hands. Sweden’s performance had been abysmal. Sending more forces into Pomerania would diminish those kept for the most basic defense in the homeland. The Hat’s party was losing favor and the costs of the war were staggering. When Fredrick’s forces stopped at the border of Swedish Pomerania and offered a truce; Sweden gladly accepted.

Prussia

Fredrick the Great was beside himself. He was overjoyed at last year’s success, angry and the loss of so many men; relieved at the seeming abandonment of Russian forces and rumors that Peter III might be amenable to reconciliation; indignant that he had to swallow his pride and offer a truce with Sweden; resolute in his desire to make sure Austria couldn’t rebuild and Silesia was back under his control; and finally utterly humbled that he may well need to abandon Saxony to get a favorable peace back to the status quo.

He said as much in a letter to King George II, the old man still clinging to life, and to the British parliament, in the hopes for continued subsidies for yet another year, informing them that he was prepared to with draw from Saxony after retaking middle and upper Silesia, and sue for peace. He just needed the funds to still do that, as there were three main obstacles left. The Austrians in Silesia, the Russians still in East Prussia, though he held out hope Peter III would withdraw if the old bat Empress Elizabeth was truly dead, and lastly the French, if British and Hanover forces could keep them from marching east, he felt confident he could finish the tasks at hand.

Portugal

Queen Maria I of Portugal was also beside herself. British leaning members (and British diplomats) of court cried out about the need to maintain ties and relying on their economic (and military if the need arise) support, while Spanish leaning ones cried the opposite. The country was a wreck, still not recovered from the great earthquake in 1755.

Queen Maria I lamented that former prime minister, Sebastião de Melo, whom she had sacked a year prior, still somehow held power and influence despite his removal. He had severely weakened the power of the old aristocratic nobles previously and then destroyed them with his purges after the Tavora affair and the assassination of her father King Joseph I. Over the past year, he surrounded himself with powerful men, merchants, bankers, and influence via continued contacts with the Portuguese wine industry and its trade. He had deflected away blame for his handling of the Lisbon riot back onto the court, and was probably behind numerous publications criticizing the current government. The Queen came to loathe the man and aimed to repair the damage he had done to the Jesuit order. At the turn of the new year, after reading the most recent pamphlet, she had gone so far as to issue a decree that he could never be less than 20 miles from her presence. She wanted to have him arrested but things had become so twisted, she feared what repercussions that might have. Every mention of the man threw the young Queen into a tantrum.

On top of all of this, there were reports of Spanish troops massing near the borders and the Queen was battered by the sway of emotions that came from being pregnant with her first child.

Great Britain

Last year, after learning of the fall of Hamelin and the French being so close to Hanover, George II nearly died. He clutched his arm and fainted away, only to be caught by nearby servant and revived while tended to a doctor, who was already on hand for a scheduled check-up. His mood improved little afterwards and despite warnings to remain calm, fought with parliament for an increase in troop numbers to Hanover to avoid its possible fall to the French.

The costs were getting out of hand. The total base size of the army in the British Isles and in Germany over the war had gone up from 18,000 to 22,000, not counting all the casualties in between, of which over 3000 became casualties either in the Germanies or on the French coast from the failed descents earlier in the war, mostly undoing the increase. Yet more needed to be sent to Hanover’s defense, and more would probably be needed in defenseless Portugal if Spain did more than just threaten.

The British fleet remained strong and was expected to do well in North America. the Caribbean and Atlantic. The French blockade on the Atlantic was still going well despite last year’s breakout at Rochefort, and two more French ships the Frippone (24) and Cumberland (24) were brought back as prizes to be sold in February after having been captured in the Atlantic just after the turn of the year.

Yet despite this, total fleet numbers were being chipped away with these French upsets, and builds had not fully kept pace with losses. Parliament approved a modest expansion of the navel budget in an attempt to make up the deficiencies.

Revenue had gone down some with the loss of Levant trade, income from French shipping seizures had flattened out or reduced as they stayed bottled up. Trouble in Portugal was threatening to destabilize trade there, and now of all times, the damned Barbary pirates were snapping at the wounded giant that was the British Empire like filthy hyenas. Pitt and other members of parliament were already considering preliminary ideas on increasing revenue. Perhaps the colonies should pay up their fair share once the Montreal finally fell.

Russia

The prior year left Vasily Lopukhin very annoyed at the court in St. Petersberg. On the verge of marching to Berlin and facing a battle that would surely have been Fredrick's last stand, he received conflicting orders. Peter III indicated Empress Elizabeth was on her death bed and ordered him to return. By the time he had reached Koningsberg he had received conflicting orders from other members to go back to Prussia and finish the war, along with rumors of a contest of control in the court regarding Peter III and Empress Elizabeth’s state of health. Lopukhin decided to leave East Prussia occupied with well fortified garrisons and returned to St. Petersberg.

He found Empress Elizabeth alive, not well, barely speaking, if at all; and quite probably dying, but still alive, and supposedly mumbling about ‘no peace’ from time to time. Peter III immediately set about trying to undermine and replace him for having not withdrawn from East Prussia.

By very late winter, Empress Elizabeth still stubbornly holding on, managed enough strength to summon select members of the court to her bedside. Peter III in particular she gesture for him to come closer so he did, and stooped by her bedside. She gestured closer still, he brought his ear close to her mouth as she mumbled, her hands drawn up holding a blanket below her chin.

That was when she grabbed him. She held Peter III’s ear in a death grip and twisted it like he was a child being scolded, in front of everyone. She summoned the strength to yell, “Stop meddling” in his red swollen ear before she finally let him go. Peter was then sequestered in his apartment with orders not to be let out until Empress Elizabeth had passed on.

North Africa

Dupliex had been busy and effective in his dealing with Morocco and the Barbary states. He even managed to obtain the release (or ransom) of numerous Christian slaves as part of his diplomatic duties, during exchanges of 'gifts' between the French King and the rulers of the Barbary states.

Mohammed ben Abdallah, Sultan of Morocco was the most amenable to the possibilities that the French subsidies offered. He had already accepted the first payments from the prior year and closed off ports and trade to the British. There had been a few opportunities to capture British shipping but he was cautious of it, letting the Deys of Algiers and Tunisia take the greater risks. The Sultan chose to spend the money investing in his country, centralizing the government to obtain greater control over the outlying tribes, and to support expeditions south down the Atlantic coast and inland along the old Trans-Saharan trade routes, where gold and slaves could still be obtained.

Even though the Trans-Saharan trade might not be as great as it once was before the Europeans discovered how to sail past Cape Bojador, it could still provide an avenue of economic expansion and competition, even if small, to European trade and influence in the area.

Abdallah was also interested in improving his military forces, and expanding his meager fleet. The French were happy to assist as old muskets, cannons, and sloops were easier to offload than money, under the promise of Morocco ceasing the seizure and enslavement of all Catholic (the French King felt this distinction important) Europeans and of course ceasing piracy against all Spanish, French, Austrian, Naples, and Sicilian vessels in general.

As part of the pending support from French and Spanish actions against the British in the Mediterranean, the French (as part of the general subsidies) wanted the port of Tangiers expanded upon to serve as a haven for repair or attack if needed, and sent Engineers to assist in it's development. The Sultan was happy to oblige, as he still remembered his history lessons regarding the destruction the English wrought on the city in 1684 after they evacuated.

The Sultan also had his eye on the Portuguese held Mazagan, and given the rumors out of Spain and France, it could be ripe for taking soon.

Baba Aku II the Dey of Algiers, as well as the Deys of Tunis and Tripolitania viewed the French subsidies as merely bribes to not engage in piracy against the alliance of European states they were forming, and as ransoms for Christian slaves, but were happy to take the money and pursue the British when possible. They spent almost none of the income investing in their own lands and countries.