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The defections and revolts came as a shock to the imperial establishment. Decades of (supposedly) tight control over the establishment had seen the government lose its experience with matters of civil strife and thus the initial response to the defection of field armies was sluggish and taken lightly. In hindsight, this was terrible, as it allowed rebels time to organize their power base and expand.
They number approximately 11,000, the size bolstered by angry, unemployed citizens eager to take arms and plunder to enrich themselves. The profile of this faction is largely based in the western, poorer regions of the empire of Macedonia and northern and inland Hellas and as such this is the region that they quickly seized from imperial authorities. Led by a loose coalition of generals, Zealot affiliated priests and other charismatic individuals, all united in a common hatred of the current economic depression.
Meanwhile in Constantinople, the aging, stress filled and increasingly frail emperor John V abdicated and retired to a monastery, finding it easier to throw this issue to the next generation rather than take control. His rule had seen him with virtually no experience in dealing with military matters. Still, ruling from age 9 up until an impressive 64 years of age, his decision was while unexpected, unquestioned. Entering the throne is emperor Constantine XI, second and eldest surviving son of John V.
Constantine is in no mood to tolerate dissent. Unlike his father, who had been raised and grew up in a position where guile, compromise and diplomacy had been absolutely necessary, the new emperor had been raised secure of his position and his destiny. Unsurprisingly, he has absolutely no tolerance for dissidents, and much less for revolts. When given the reins, the emperor goes out to terminate the revolts with extreme prejudice. The remainder of the armed forces loyal to him (the mercenaries, the navy and about half the pre civil war army; mostly those in Thrace and Asia who can afford a cut in pay thanks to their land holdings) that can be spared are recalled to Thrace in order to march upon the rebels.
However Constantine does not act initially. He is prudent enough to realize that with rebels cutting off revenue of Macedonia and northern Hellas the shrinking imperial budget will be cut once more, leaving the treasury even more stretched. Thus there needed to be new sources of income filling the coffers. To him there are 2 obvious sources, both of which the Viceregent of God chooses to use: The glittering wealth of the church, unmolested by the state for nearly a century- and raising the tax burden.
The current crisis being religiously charged by fringe groups that are nearly heretical sees the first one pass relatively easily. The Patriarch agrees to give the imperial treasury the needed funds for the duration of the war, buying the emperor enough time to pay his troops and regain their confidence. Following that an increase on the current taxes of the common folk are pushed forth. Interestingly, the latter is dealt with with minor complaints. This is for 2 major reasons: Thrace, coastal Greece and Asia Minor are all on average much richer regions where in which taxes were, comparatively speaking rather low. That and whatever hint of revolt is dealt with a very quick, very surgical and above all very ruthless response by the imperial government.
With the necessary funds to secure his position, Constantine resumes his march.
All the while, the powers that be have not been idle as Romania stirs. To the east in Anatolia, the withdrawal of imperial forces from the heavily fortified frontier has the Germiyanids Sultanate -no longer content with being a mere beylik- licking their lips in anticipation. These past years had seen the other beyliks move together in opposition, stunting expansion in the east. But this did not mean Germiyan had been idle, for the Sultan had been merely preparing for the next round of conflict. Reorganizing, rebuilding and fortifying.
The target is not Romania however. It is Aydin. This rich strip of coastal land contained many strategic goals for the Sultanate, and with their patron distracted it is time to act. The Sultan wheels his forces east and begins the march to Smyrna for the Aegean is at hand.
Despite resisting valiantly for 2 years, the small principality was unable to stop the onslaught of a vastly superior and larger force. Due to the war, the Imperials could only spare token forces. But Aydin was not alone, for Candar had take up arms against the sultanate in a pre emptive strike to maintain the current balance of power. This, much to the horror of Smyrna, wasn’t enough to relieve the pressure on Symrna. Candar had not reformed her army, nor had she entirely recovered from war against the Ottomans. A quick, efficient conquest was at hand. As Constantine had retaken Thessalonica for the imperial government, decisively shifted the balance of power back into Imperial hands; Gerimiyanid forces were besieging Smyrna. Knowing fully well there was little chance of relief, the ruling emir, one Nasir Bey, took his family and fled with the navy to his Aegean possessions. From there he rebuilt his court, and ordered his troops to harass the Germiyanid forces while provide support to the Candarids in their counter invasion. Envoys was also sent to the Imperial government pleading with them to aid in the liberation of their conquered lands as soon as possible.
Constantinople agreed with little complaint, though their price was high. Aydin would become a full fledged vassal and the Aydinid navy, the only source of power left for the tiny emirate, was to serve the Roman Navy as auxiliaries. But intervention was not to happen immediately. The Romans were fresh from breaking the back of the rebellion and reintegrating the armies under government command. Now it was time to lick their wounds, implement the needed reforms to balance the budget, make sure their payments to the Italians are met and cement Constantine XI’s unquestioned rule. Government taxation of church funds, despite initially being a temporary measure would continue upon the ‘convincing’ of the upper echelon of the church. Additionally, the end of Thessalonica’s autonomy with its reintegration from Rebel hands would provide another source of income. With great care, a balanced budget was forming. But that was not enough for the Romans to feel secure.
When the Romans felt the ready to intervene once more in 1397, the balance of power in Asia Minor had undergone a transformation. Germiyan was in… an uncomfortable position. The new conquests, while having paid for themselves on the one hand, now caused the Sultanate to be at war with every single one of her neighbors on account of fear of being the next target. From Karaman to Candar to Hamid the beyliks united in opposition to a rising hegemon. Once more war returned.
But Germiyan had prepared. The east had been fortified and with the Aegean secure troops could be shifted east to defend the prepared chokepoints. The smaller beyliks were easily kept at bay, but Candar and Karaman proved to be a different story. The former, while not entirely recovered from the assault on the Ottomans nonetheless pushed forth with their impressive cavalry. That is until the Germiyanids were able to lure Candar into pitched battle, leading to the decimation of their forces and a sharp loss of manpower. Now the tables had turned and Candar was rapidly being pushed back.
It gets worse. Trebizond, Germiyan’s ally of convenience had seized the moment and opened a second front, briskly moving her armies to seize the towns of the regions. The Pontic coast appeared ripe to be divided by these two powers.
On the other hand, Karaman was unfazed. The heirs of Seljuq could throw men into the grinder and have their troops live off the land, granting them far more flexibility in military manners in comparison to their enemies. Karaman raids went off without a hitch and despite the military preparations of their enemies, able to cause damage. We could classify the situation on the ground as a stalemate, but that would only be accurate for up until Candar was crippled. With the other major power rapidly retreating, Germiyan was able to go on the offensive.
That is, until Romania joined the conflict.
Rome’s intervention swiftly tipped the balance of power back into the hands of the coalition. Firstly, by saving Candar. After using Sinope as a launch pad to brutally sacking Trebizond, ransoming its royal family in aftermath of the unexpected attack and eliminating its presence in the current war (and ruining all the work in the past century to build up the country above a third rate power), Romania began to concentrate her forces on the remainder of Candarid territory to defend.
Secondly and simultaneously, via the deployment of troops into the Candarid frontier to roll back the invaders.
Thirdly, with the blockading of Germiyanid territory courtesy of the de facto absorption of the Aydinid fleet. Working in conjunction with the Karamanids, the Romans aim to disperse and fragment enemy forces into more sizable amounts as they occupy land while additionally demoralizing Germiyan.
To their benefit, it does work as planned. The Romans found less resistance than expected as they push down the Meander valley, conquering nearly all in sight with minimal digestible losses. Granted that mostly displays the benefits of a reformed army and exhausted enemies, but we can’t discount all the additional factors in their favor.
Fast forward to 1400. In 7 years Germiyan has gone from the major hegemon in Anatolia to being the plaything of Rome and Karaman (Candar had largely been sidelined by this point as it was clear that Rome had become the dominant power in the partnership) as the two plan out how to carve up their prize. Once more, short sighted greed has become the downfall of a promising state. And though it would be cold comfort to the Sultan and his family, huddling in a castle as a combined Roman/Karaman force pound away at their capital walls, the two powers would not celebrate their victory for long.
Both Constantine XI and Mehmet Beg may believe they have secured their position against an upstart, but that was merely a preview of what will be.