alternatehistory.com
Part 47: Japanese general election, 2015
...Japan remained one of America's most steadfast allies throughout the Cold War, something inconceivable after the brutal fighting in the Pacific between the two nations during World War II. American investment and the economic boost gained as a major supply depot during the Korean War quickly lifted Japan out of the post-war economic doldrums and by the early 1970s its economy and standards of living were on par with those of developed Western nations. Relations with the United States during this period entered a rough patch, as the continued occupation of Okinawa by the United States remained a sore spot.
The end of American involvement in the Vietnam War in 1971 as well as the turnover of Okinawa (minus the American military bases there) to Japanese control brought relations between the two former enemies back to "on good terms". Japan would also form a strong relationship with South Korea once that nation completed its painful struggle to democracy in the late 1980s, partially due to their shared democratic status and close proximity but also because of the threats of China, the Soviet Union and North Korea.
Leading Japan ever since its founding in 1955 (with the exception of a brief nine-month stint in the opposition) was the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Formed as a merger of two conservative parties, the LDP quickly, with the help of covert CIA funding, gaming of the House of Representatives' electoral system and broad-tent nature, became the dominant party in Japanese politics. The LDP was never in real danger of losing its majority in the House of Assembly for the first twenty years of its existence, winning every election handily. The revelation that Lockheed officials had bribed several LDP politicians in the 1950s and 1960s briefly threatened the LDP once it became known in the late 1970s, but the party weathered the storm by pointing to Japan's continuing economic rise and standards of living.
Things really were that great, as Japanese technology and motor exports were dominant in many western markets throughout the 1980s. The LDP was quick to take credit for the seeming never-ending boom and despite it becoming increasingly common for LDP ministers and prominent members of the Diet to be implicated in bribery scandals or other ethical lapses, the LDP's gaming of the system and sloganeering that the untested opposition parties would cause Japan's economy to collapse ensured that they always won a majority despite falling as low as 40% of the popular vote.
Then everything came crashing down in 1993. The Japanese real estate bubble, which had been inflating since the early 1980s, popped and the Japanese economy collapsed as the cozy system between the LDP, business and the civil service that had developed over the previous decades caused the party to pursue conflicting policies that financial experts would later say caused the rest of the 1990s to be one of economic stagnation for Japan. The fact that Japanese goods were losing their share of the American market (due to both the rise of American brands and policies passed by the Huddleston Administration to shore up the Big Three auto companies who were facing stiff competition in Japanese manufacturers like Honda and Toyota) at the same time also hurt the country's recovery. The uncovering of a bribery ring that forced the resignation of Prime Minister Takao Fujinami among other notable politicians was the last straw and in 1995, an unwieldy opposition coalition was elected, displacing the LDP for the first time in the party's history.
The new unstable government did not last long, as almost none of its eight constituent members had put any thought into implementing policy and running the nation once the LDP was removed. However, the coalition did end up passing electoral reform before it fractured in early 1996, returning the LDP to power. The new House of Representatives would no longer have multi-member districts elected by a single non-transferable vote that the LDP had stacked to great effect by nominating candidates from different party factions to avoid wasted votes. Instead, there would be a set number (300) of single-member plurality districts and other members (originally 200, now 180) elected by proportional representation in districts.
The LDP won its first majority under the new system in 1998, but even so, their showing was much weaker owing to the new proportional voting in parallel to district voting and more parties began to enter the Diet. Despite a credible alternative in the center-left Democratic Party becoming the main opposition to LDP rule, the LDP still won five consecutive elections from 1998 to 2011, although the three elections between the 1998 victory and 2011 resulted in the party having to share power with coalition partners, something unthinkable before the reforms.
While the LDP power-brokers had written off the 1995 results as an aberration, the unwillingness of the party leaders to address the reasons for the party's failure in 1995 and to apply any lessons learned only made the party's internal problems worse. Following the electoral reform, unhappy members of the LDP found they could more easily bolt to either another party or create their own under the new system, although for the most part the new parties faded after one election. From the 1998-2001 to the 2011-2015 Diets, the number of LDP bolters steadily increased as the party leaders continued to focus more on balancing factions instead of providing stable governance. The economy eventually began rebounding in 2009 and was able to give the LDP its first majority in a decade when the Japanese public went to the polls in 2011 but this just set the stage for another problem for the LDP.
With the LDP having led the nation out of the poor economy, voters soon began feeling confident once again to change from the LDP, especially as the party continued to be hit with corruption scandals. Poor showing in the House of Councillors election caused Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to resign, and he was replaced with Tarō Asō. Asō proved to be wholly inadequate to the job of leading the party and his poor reading skills and penchant for saying offensive remarks caused him to be booted out less than a year before the party had planned on calling new elections, being replaced with Nobutaka Machimura.
Machimura's selection would be the final straw on the back for several factions who had been passed over for the final time. Over 30 of those members bolted and formed the New Democratic Party, picking former government minister Sadazaku Tanigaki to lead them. This was not the only factor in the LDP's worries for the upcoming election. A new party of solidly right-wing nationalists called the National Restoration Party had formed earlier out of disgruntled LDP parliamentarians and they were increasingly eating into the LDP's support among nationalists. With the LDP divided, the Democratic Party began rising in the polls. Then, just days after Machimura announced the date of the election, the prime minister suffered a stroke.
While the prime minister survived, he would be unable to campaign during the election and questions began to swirl about if Machimura's fitness for office and just how long he could remain if the LDP retained control. The LDP leadership, unwilling for a third leadership change in eighteen months, and of losing yet another faction, united behind Machimura but this just ended up driving more Japanese voters into the arms of opposition parties.
The result was a massive landslide for the Democratic Party, which won nearly two-thirds of all seats in the House of Representatives. Machimura and Tanigaki both humiliatingly lost their seats in the Democratic wave, with Machimura becoming the first modern sitting Japanese prime minister to fail to be elected to the new Diet as the LDP fell to third in the number of seats and nearly half of the NDP's representatives lost their seats in the Diet. The National Restoration Party under Shintaro Ishihara became the official opposition as a result of the LDP/NDP split, further compounding the LDP's fall.
Prime Minister Katsuya Okada, the first Democratic Prime Minister of Japan, has begun to confront a nation with long-term problems that the LDP has neglected coming to the forefront: an aging population paired with overall negative population growth, poor job prospects for young men and a high level of debt. With the Liberal Democratic Party continuing to fracture and the National Restoration Party offering few practical solutions, it seems that Okada and the Democratic Party will, for at least a time, have the chance to get Japan on the right track...
The end of American involvement in the Vietnam War in 1971 as well as the turnover of Okinawa (minus the American military bases there) to Japanese control brought relations between the two former enemies back to "on good terms". Japan would also form a strong relationship with South Korea once that nation completed its painful struggle to democracy in the late 1980s, partially due to their shared democratic status and close proximity but also because of the threats of China, the Soviet Union and North Korea.
Leading Japan ever since its founding in 1955 (with the exception of a brief nine-month stint in the opposition) was the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Formed as a merger of two conservative parties, the LDP quickly, with the help of covert CIA funding, gaming of the House of Representatives' electoral system and broad-tent nature, became the dominant party in Japanese politics. The LDP was never in real danger of losing its majority in the House of Assembly for the first twenty years of its existence, winning every election handily. The revelation that Lockheed officials had bribed several LDP politicians in the 1950s and 1960s briefly threatened the LDP once it became known in the late 1970s, but the party weathered the storm by pointing to Japan's continuing economic rise and standards of living.
Things really were that great, as Japanese technology and motor exports were dominant in many western markets throughout the 1980s. The LDP was quick to take credit for the seeming never-ending boom and despite it becoming increasingly common for LDP ministers and prominent members of the Diet to be implicated in bribery scandals or other ethical lapses, the LDP's gaming of the system and sloganeering that the untested opposition parties would cause Japan's economy to collapse ensured that they always won a majority despite falling as low as 40% of the popular vote.
Then everything came crashing down in 1993. The Japanese real estate bubble, which had been inflating since the early 1980s, popped and the Japanese economy collapsed as the cozy system between the LDP, business and the civil service that had developed over the previous decades caused the party to pursue conflicting policies that financial experts would later say caused the rest of the 1990s to be one of economic stagnation for Japan. The fact that Japanese goods were losing their share of the American market (due to both the rise of American brands and policies passed by the Huddleston Administration to shore up the Big Three auto companies who were facing stiff competition in Japanese manufacturers like Honda and Toyota) at the same time also hurt the country's recovery. The uncovering of a bribery ring that forced the resignation of Prime Minister Takao Fujinami among other notable politicians was the last straw and in 1995, an unwieldy opposition coalition was elected, displacing the LDP for the first time in the party's history.
The new unstable government did not last long, as almost none of its eight constituent members had put any thought into implementing policy and running the nation once the LDP was removed. However, the coalition did end up passing electoral reform before it fractured in early 1996, returning the LDP to power. The new House of Representatives would no longer have multi-member districts elected by a single non-transferable vote that the LDP had stacked to great effect by nominating candidates from different party factions to avoid wasted votes. Instead, there would be a set number (300) of single-member plurality districts and other members (originally 200, now 180) elected by proportional representation in districts.
The LDP won its first majority under the new system in 1998, but even so, their showing was much weaker owing to the new proportional voting in parallel to district voting and more parties began to enter the Diet. Despite a credible alternative in the center-left Democratic Party becoming the main opposition to LDP rule, the LDP still won five consecutive elections from 1998 to 2011, although the three elections between the 1998 victory and 2011 resulted in the party having to share power with coalition partners, something unthinkable before the reforms.
While the LDP power-brokers had written off the 1995 results as an aberration, the unwillingness of the party leaders to address the reasons for the party's failure in 1995 and to apply any lessons learned only made the party's internal problems worse. Following the electoral reform, unhappy members of the LDP found they could more easily bolt to either another party or create their own under the new system, although for the most part the new parties faded after one election. From the 1998-2001 to the 2011-2015 Diets, the number of LDP bolters steadily increased as the party leaders continued to focus more on balancing factions instead of providing stable governance. The economy eventually began rebounding in 2009 and was able to give the LDP its first majority in a decade when the Japanese public went to the polls in 2011 but this just set the stage for another problem for the LDP.
With the LDP having led the nation out of the poor economy, voters soon began feeling confident once again to change from the LDP, especially as the party continued to be hit with corruption scandals. Poor showing in the House of Councillors election caused Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to resign, and he was replaced with Tarō Asō. Asō proved to be wholly inadequate to the job of leading the party and his poor reading skills and penchant for saying offensive remarks caused him to be booted out less than a year before the party had planned on calling new elections, being replaced with Nobutaka Machimura.
Machimura's selection would be the final straw on the back for several factions who had been passed over for the final time. Over 30 of those members bolted and formed the New Democratic Party, picking former government minister Sadazaku Tanigaki to lead them. This was not the only factor in the LDP's worries for the upcoming election. A new party of solidly right-wing nationalists called the National Restoration Party had formed earlier out of disgruntled LDP parliamentarians and they were increasingly eating into the LDP's support among nationalists. With the LDP divided, the Democratic Party began rising in the polls. Then, just days after Machimura announced the date of the election, the prime minister suffered a stroke.
While the prime minister survived, he would be unable to campaign during the election and questions began to swirl about if Machimura's fitness for office and just how long he could remain if the LDP retained control. The LDP leadership, unwilling for a third leadership change in eighteen months, and of losing yet another faction, united behind Machimura but this just ended up driving more Japanese voters into the arms of opposition parties.
The result was a massive landslide for the Democratic Party, which won nearly two-thirds of all seats in the House of Representatives. Machimura and Tanigaki both humiliatingly lost their seats in the Democratic wave, with Machimura becoming the first modern sitting Japanese prime minister to fail to be elected to the new Diet as the LDP fell to third in the number of seats and nearly half of the NDP's representatives lost their seats in the Diet. The National Restoration Party under Shintaro Ishihara became the official opposition as a result of the LDP/NDP split, further compounding the LDP's fall.
Prime Minister Katsuya Okada, the first Democratic Prime Minister of Japan, has begun to confront a nation with long-term problems that the LDP has neglected coming to the forefront: an aging population paired with overall negative population growth, poor job prospects for young men and a high level of debt. With the Liberal Democratic Party continuing to fracture and the National Restoration Party offering few practical solutions, it seems that Okada and the Democratic Party will, for at least a time, have the chance to get Japan on the right track...
- lord caedus
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