Oh yeah. But after that, things can always get better.
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Countdown to War
6 Years, 3 months [October of 1364]: Emperor John, Fifth of that Name, arrives in Constantinople after touring the neighbors of Rome in hopes of improving the empire’s diplomatic situation. He is received with much fanfare from the urban mob in the capital. Perceiving the situation in Italy secure, John once more returns his attention to things closer to home. As always, the goals are the expansion of Roman wealth and power.
5 Years: The Roman Empire receives word that Bulgaria has launched an invasion of Serbia with a vast host, apparently with the intent of overrunning the entire kingdom. It appears that Bulgarian Tsar Ivan Alexander had managed to centralize the Bulgarian state and quell the recent independent streak of the Bolyar nobles, thus gaining access to their sizable reserves of levies.
Caught off guard by the sudden invasion of their former allies, the Bulgarians gain immense ground in the initial momentum. As one might expect however, a combination of difficult terrain, contingency plans by the government, and reasonably competent leadership managing to regroup Serbia’s forces have the seemingly implacable advance by the Bulgarian forces slow down to a crawl. This of course, does not end the advances, but turns the invasion into a meatgrinder as Serbian forces resort to their specialty of asymmetrical warfare against a numerically superior forces.
Mid summer however, things go south for the Serbs. When the news reaches Buda that Serbia is under attack, King Louis of Hungary readies his levies and prepares for war. A hasty expedition is sent out to invade Bosnia- mostly to probe the region’s defenses but it of course is a sign of things to come. Louis has come to regain his patrimony and avenge his father.
Emperor John initially does nothing, adopting a wait and see attitude, but puts Macedonian troops on standby in case there is an opportunity.
4 Years: The winter this year is particularly brutal, causing severe attrition amongst Bulgarian forces deep in Serbian territory. It does not stop the Bulgarians, but allows a breather for Serb armies. Come spring, that sense of relief turns to dread; Bosnia is invaded by the Hungarians once more. Unlike before, the Hungarians have not spread their forces thin and take extra precaution with regards to their supply lines. At the same time, Serbia cannot spare as much men as it can thanks to a two front war. Like lava, the Hungarian advance is slow yet unstoppable.
With Serbia quickly crumbling, the Romans act, hoping to capitalize as much as they can. Initially sending several contingents of troops to occupy several border forts, Rome ceases its invasion and sends king Stefan V an ultimatum: A cessation of lands that would total the historic territory of Duklja or Romania would continue its advance. Such demands were harsh and in any other circumstance unreasonable, but faced with the possibility of a third front by what appears to be a regional power, king Stefan acquiesces.
Unfortunately this is not enough to save the poor Serbs, and the kingdom is left a rump of its former self by year’s end. That said, it is worth noting the kingdom fought valiantly against its many invaders, giving both of them a black eye and a mountain of casualties when it was all said and done. In August, peace is restored, but at a heavy cost. Serbia is left at best a buffer state between Hungary and Bulgaria.
3 Years: Romania’s gains are not so easily digested. Unlike before, where the territories gained have been largely Greek speaking, Orthodox and part of the Roman state a mere generation before, the Duklja region is only one of those. But a common religion is not enough to change the common perception that Rome is an invader, not a liberator. This of course doesn’t even go into the empire’s reputation the empire amongst nobility…
And so rebellion begins.
This is put down, but at a surprising cost to Roman forces. Despite what one would think, the establishment sees the issue as one of numbers, not of strategy. Roman doctrine has been the same for nearly a century, and nearly all the complaints on the ground have been that the problem is one of lack of men and equipment. Inertia is a powerful thing, and so when assessing the situation on the ground, it is deemed that these two problems are the root of the issue.
With the money and additional territories gained in the past few years, Rome attempts to rectify this while the crises in Duklja dies down. Issues are given out to increase the size of the armed forces, particularly the standing army that’s is considered to more mobile and reliable than the standard militia troops. By the time war with the Ottomans begins, the Roman army would have numbered to nearly 20,000 troops, albeit only ~9,000 of them would be considered professional troops. The reason being is cost, its far more cheaper to raise militia troops than full on soldiers, (the bulk of the increased income has been delegated to the navy, and John V is too influenced by Alexios Apokaukos to change the payroll for now). That said, one must laud the Romans for their scrupulousness on providing equipment and maintaining logistics.
While the army bloats in size, Duklja is pacified through a combination of bribery, force of arms, land redistribution, investment and old fashioned population exchanges.
1 Year, 5 months: With all Christian territory under control of Muslim elites in Anatolia, the Ottoman Emirate turns its attention at fellow Muslim principalities as targets for expansion. Currently, one of the targets is the nearby Beylik of Saruhan, a small yet relatively prosperous state in the Anatolian coast. For the time being, most 'attempts' of expansion are redirecting allied tribesmen of Anatolia to raid their neighbors in the hopes of weakening the state enough so that when the actual, professional army of the Ottomans is sent in, its mostly cleanup duty. What makes this state particularly of interest to Romania is that it is the northern neighbor of the Aydinid Emirate, and the ruling bey is a close ally of the Aydinids and the Germiyanids. Raids begin in earnest that year, with the intent of weakening the state before the army is sent in to finish the job.
News of Ottoman aggression spread throughout Anatolia. Already unnerved by the massive expansion of the Ottomans in a mere generation, the other emirs begin to prepare their defenses against the northern colossus. Aydin and Saruhan renew their alliances and begin talks with Germiyan and Candar for a potential strike against the Ottomans. Candar agrees, but Germiyan adopts a ‘wait and see’ attitude. The Ottomans are much less a threat to them than the other beyliks, and they do not wish to risk a potentially long and messy war.
Additionally, the emir of Aydin sends out a request to the emperor in Constantinople for aid against the Ottoman threat. Aydin might have a reasonably powerful navy, but its army is small. Romania on the other hand has a numerically impressive army that continues to grow. John agrees to join the makeshift coalition, and begins preparations to fight against the Ottomans. Together with the Saruhan, Aydin and the Candarids an official alliance is formed.
1 Year: As part of the negotiations, Constantinople asks that the Turks delay their war plans for 2 years, as Romania plans to expand her arsenal and finish off her military reorganization. The other states agree to this condition but are still wary of what to come.
In order to mollify the Turks that Rome is not abandoning, John agrees to hire several bands of Italian condottieri to defend against the Ottomans. These troops are stationed in the Saruhan frontier and are do well to counter the raids by various tribesmen. However, they do tend to clash with the locals almost as much as they do with the Ottomans due to issues of culture, religion and language.
3 months: This does not endear the Saruhan state. Protests from locals are common and as increasingly frequent time goes on. Eventually they just have enough of the mercenaries and disband them, despite protests from the Roman officials overseeing them- for good reason. The condottieri, who have not been paid recently, decide to take their dues from the Saruhan and begin pillaging the countryside, causing massive amounts of destruction. Forces are sent in to smash the mercenaries and restore order.
2 months: Ottoman Emir Suleiman I received word from his brother Murad that the Saruhans have disbanded their mercenary army. Taking this as a sign of weakness (as it is likely the emirate didn’t have the money to pay the soldiers, Suleiman orders the army to mobilize and march southwest. The time for campaigning has started.
1 month, ~3 weeks: The government at Constantinople receives word that the mercenary troops have gone rogue and scramble for damage control. A naval squadron is hastily assembled to deal with this issue before it gets out of hand.
10 days: Ottoman troops arrive in Saruhan territory, where they meet up (and clash) with the mercenaries. Exhausted from fighting the Saruhan troops, they are quickly routed by Ottomans.
6 Hours: An Ottoman army encounters the garrison at Demirci, one of the major cities of the Saruhan beylik and attempt to capture the city, beginning the first battle of the War of the Manisa League (named after the Saruhan capital Manisa, where most of the negotiations were conducted).