alternatehistory.com
6
This is a huge blessing in disguise for the Bulgarians. Their frontiers are secure and all potential hostiles have been neutralized for the time being, giving the state a massive amount of breathing room. Byzantium and Wallachia are both allied are likely to stay that way thanks to the magic of realpolitik. Ivan Alexander does have his work cut out for him though, but with that breathing room he should be able to somewhat centralize Bulgaria after dealing with the nobility and turning into a regional powerhouse after a decade or 2- maybe 3.
Most internal PODs rarely do anything to neutralize outside threats so I figured why not go with one that will?
---------
“Alexios has unleashed a lion; let us see if he can tame it.”- Reportedly attributed to John Kantakouzenos upon being captured and tried in Constantinople, 1343.
Knowing his gamble had failed, John attempted to salvage the situation using one other trick up his sleeve: Diplomacy. Stuck in Macedonia, he decided to appeal to the Serbian king Stefan Dusan for aid, promising in return land in Macedonia. This was a sound idea, Serbian forces were talented and well disciplined and could grant him the numbers needed to crush the rabble that rebelled against his authority. Unfortunately, the Serbs were busy dealing with keeping peace in the recently annexed Hum and attempting to put on a strong front against the Banate of Croatia, of which relations had briefly deteriorated with and the threat of war loomed. Thus, Dusan politely declined despite John’s tempting offer.
After that failure, he attempted to appeal to Bulgaria with a similar offer, only to learn the Ivan Alexander had already established relations with the Regency and recognized them as the true Roman government. Thus, he went south and managed to obtain the support of the Latin Barons, gaining an extra 1,000 or so men to aid his campaign. John had also offered the prospect of securing a diplomatic annexation, in which the Latin Barons of Achaea (who had been suffering defeats from the Catalonian controlled Duchy of Athens) agreeing to submit to the Romans as vassals in exchange for a future assault on Athens some time in the future. [1] One final message was sent out to the emir of Aydin, the old friend of John in hopes that he may intervene on John’s end.
With that in mind, the campaign began in earnest in mid to late 1341. Both sides marched towards their opponents, as they were for practically directly opposite from each power base thanks to the reduced state of the empire (essentially reduced to a roughly straight band from Macedonia to Constantinople; not counting the southern portion of the Morea and a small bit of Thessaly). Alexius and his forces moving towards Macedonia where the great estates and the main recruiting ground of Byzantine soldiers lay, and John making his way towards the what has traditionally been a city filled with strong nobility, Thessalonica. Intent on capturing the great city, John makes haste. With his army of roughly 4,000 infantry units backed up by 2,000 cavalry, John and his men start besieging the city in autumn and never letting go, the Pretenders manage to put a good seige. . Unfortunately, they never manage to crack the walls, but do effectively cut off land access in and out of the city. This is nullified to a degree as the Byzantine navy does its best to supply Thessalonica and their supporters within the city.
Thessalonica was important to both sides for many a reason, but especially to Kantakouzenos and his men. It was, following the Imperial restoration in 1261 increasingly filled and dominated by provincial aristocracy, -making it a potentially loyal city-, but more importantly was the second largest city in the empire at the time. It’s population rivaled Constantinople, overflowing with 50,000 residents.[2] It was (despite Italian domination) an important center of trade and had a massive shipyard that could potentially be put to use in building a navy to counter Alexios. (Where John will get the money to do so God only knows, but hey its an option!) along with still being relatively wealthy in comparison to most of the empire. Thus it was critical for both sides to secure. And while the siege of the Pretender began, the Regency forces had used the navy to supply the city for now. Unfortunately this did not last, as the tiny Roman Navy was recalled to protect imperial territory from Aydinid raids in the Aegean, leaving Thessalonica with at most a token garrison. The City was, while officially part of the Regency camp, effectively left alone to deal with its problems.
At the same time, when the navy had entered the city, it brings with it Alexios’ anti-noble propaganda, leading to the establishment of the Zealots of Thessalonica as the major power in the city. Despite Alexius installing his own son John as governor, John only had nominal power and in fact had to share with the city council and the Zealot's leaders. He was given the title of Archon by the city’s residents and made a member of their council to resolve disputes and dictate policy. But any thoughts of absolute control were brutally and swiftly dashed. Meanwhile, the Zealots, fired up by the “Kantakouzenosism” rhetoric, massacre the city’s nobility, before taking their wealth and setting up what was effectively a de facto independent city-state due to lack of Imperial power projection. With the Zealots under control of their own statelet, their rhetoric would be given a testing ground to put into practice…[3]
Following the debacle at Thessalonica, the Civil War further turned into the favor of the Regency forces as the year went on. By June, Regency forces had taken most of Western Macedonia, and by October they had managed to end the siege of Thessalonica and were launching raids into Epirus and Thessaly. Kantakouzenos’ forces, outnumbered and exhausted, were finally broken in outside the ruins of the ancient town of Pella in March of 1343, removing any substantial resistance to Apokaukos’ makeshift army. Sporadic fighting continued up until the end of the year, but all major fighting had ended by the Midsummer. John Kantakouzenos himself was captured at Pella and sent back to Constantinople, where he was tried and summarily executed in the following year.
Why did Alexius’ army, who by all accounts were mostly peasant militia bolstered by the occasional mercenary unit and defectors from the old regime able to crush the Byzantine army, a far more disciplined and well equipped force? There are several reasons for this. The first was numerical disparity. Alexios used his primitive propaganda machine to recruit from the lowest of society, those eager for any chance to improve their standing. Thanks to the general state of impoverishment of his empire, gave him access to a ready pool of soldiers eager to gain land and wealth for them and their families. This was by the time period a rare chance to quickly improve their standing in life and society and many were eager to take it. Thanks to this willing pool of soldiers, the Regency forces were able to absorb losses far, far better than their opponents, who were a relatively small force of less than 10,000 men. Regency forces were able to regularly match, and later on, surpass their enemies in number. As well, this numerical disparity and ability to tank losses let the regency forces strike hard and fast, barely giving the rebels a chance to rest.
The second was psychology. The army of the regency forces was one noted for its zeal and fanaticism, where the thought of obtaining a slice of the wealth of their enemies appealed to poorest of society and made them eager fighters. Whatever discipline their enemies might have had was matched in its effectiveness by the fanaticism of their opponents. It was as they say, a cornered animal is the most dangerous. It also enjoyed a large amount of support in the countryside, thanks to breaking up many a latifundia, killing hated nobles and other wealthy citizens and looting their enemies lands and distributing it to the people. On the other hand, as the war dragged on and news of defeat and the prospect of their estates being ransacked and taken from then, Kantakouzenos’ army struggled to stay focused to their goal. By the second year of fighting, dissertations were a growing problem. Noble officers feared more for their property than the cause they were fighting for, and many made a deal with the new regime, promising their support in exchange for having their lands secured (which, in most cases, Alexios was pragmatic enough to spare them the mob’s fury). Such things further hollowed out the strength of their camp, leading to more victories by the Regency forces, more seizures of land and massacres of nobles, and more desertions in a desperate attempt to starve off the mob. Quite the vicious cycle. Third and lastly were more obvious and boring reasons such as the Regency army being interestingly enough more organized due to having control of the bulk of the imperial bureaucracy back in Constantinople and Thrace, better supplies thanks to the imperial navy, and of course having access to the state funds directly from the imperial treasury.
[1] Yet another OTL thing that he did after getting Serbian support IOTL as a back up plan; a testament of his diplomatic prowess. Unfortunately, IOTL he was not able to get Ivan Alexander’s support, who adamantly supported the Regency forces. (As a big 'fuck you' to the guy. I honestly forgot why, but the Tsar had a huge personal hatred of John Kantakouzenos. Probably due to getting the Turks to direct their naval raids into Bulgaria)
[2] Interestingly most of the nobility in Thessalonica seemed to have stayed loyal, which is why they didn’t immediately open the gates for John and his men. Unfortunately, that was not enough to save them.
[3] The Zealots did a similar thing in OTL due to effectively being cut off by both sides of the civil war for a few years despite nominally being part of the Regency side.
Thanks! I as well am very interested in the development of the Beyliks, seeing as how they were developing in rapidly different directions overall prior to the Ottoman conquest.I remember being PMed about this
Dusan orientation is now mostly going to be focused on the Northern Balkans and against Hungary rather than the empire, so
This is a huge blessing in disguise for the Bulgarians. Their frontiers are secure and all potential hostiles have been neutralized for the time being, giving the state a massive amount of breathing room. Byzantium and Wallachia are both allied are likely to stay that way thanks to the magic of realpolitik. Ivan Alexander does have his work cut out for him though, but with that breathing room he should be able to somewhat centralize Bulgaria after dealing with the nobility and turning into a regional powerhouse after a decade or 2- maybe 3.
Second that praise on a nice POD. A relatively minor event that one would not see as having much of an impact on the transformation of the Byzantines. Bravo Sov.
Most internal PODs rarely do anything to neutralize outside threats so I figured why not go with one that will?
Now that's a fascinating take on the social contract.Basically, the aristocracy will be seen (in Rome) as a greedy force that only a strong Emperor can curb. Thus, they may argue, a dictatorship is much more free than a Republic. Just like the good old days, when the Basileus would curb the power of the Dynatoi and promote the peasant farmer
The real faction thats going to be the main opposition party for the regime in next few decades is one that should be pretty obvious (or so I think).
---------
“Alexios has unleashed a lion; let us see if he can tame it.”- Reportedly attributed to John Kantakouzenos upon being captured and tried in Constantinople, 1343.
Knowing his gamble had failed, John attempted to salvage the situation using one other trick up his sleeve: Diplomacy. Stuck in Macedonia, he decided to appeal to the Serbian king Stefan Dusan for aid, promising in return land in Macedonia. This was a sound idea, Serbian forces were talented and well disciplined and could grant him the numbers needed to crush the rabble that rebelled against his authority. Unfortunately, the Serbs were busy dealing with keeping peace in the recently annexed Hum and attempting to put on a strong front against the Banate of Croatia, of which relations had briefly deteriorated with and the threat of war loomed. Thus, Dusan politely declined despite John’s tempting offer.
After that failure, he attempted to appeal to Bulgaria with a similar offer, only to learn the Ivan Alexander had already established relations with the Regency and recognized them as the true Roman government. Thus, he went south and managed to obtain the support of the Latin Barons, gaining an extra 1,000 or so men to aid his campaign. John had also offered the prospect of securing a diplomatic annexation, in which the Latin Barons of Achaea (who had been suffering defeats from the Catalonian controlled Duchy of Athens) agreeing to submit to the Romans as vassals in exchange for a future assault on Athens some time in the future. [1] One final message was sent out to the emir of Aydin, the old friend of John in hopes that he may intervene on John’s end.
With that in mind, the campaign began in earnest in mid to late 1341. Both sides marched towards their opponents, as they were for practically directly opposite from each power base thanks to the reduced state of the empire (essentially reduced to a roughly straight band from Macedonia to Constantinople; not counting the southern portion of the Morea and a small bit of Thessaly). Alexius and his forces moving towards Macedonia where the great estates and the main recruiting ground of Byzantine soldiers lay, and John making his way towards the what has traditionally been a city filled with strong nobility, Thessalonica. Intent on capturing the great city, John makes haste. With his army of roughly 4,000 infantry units backed up by 2,000 cavalry, John and his men start besieging the city in autumn and never letting go, the Pretenders manage to put a good seige. . Unfortunately, they never manage to crack the walls, but do effectively cut off land access in and out of the city. This is nullified to a degree as the Byzantine navy does its best to supply Thessalonica and their supporters within the city.
Thessalonica was important to both sides for many a reason, but especially to Kantakouzenos and his men. It was, following the Imperial restoration in 1261 increasingly filled and dominated by provincial aristocracy, -making it a potentially loyal city-, but more importantly was the second largest city in the empire at the time. It’s population rivaled Constantinople, overflowing with 50,000 residents.[2] It was (despite Italian domination) an important center of trade and had a massive shipyard that could potentially be put to use in building a navy to counter Alexios. (Where John will get the money to do so God only knows, but hey its an option!) along with still being relatively wealthy in comparison to most of the empire. Thus it was critical for both sides to secure. And while the siege of the Pretender began, the Regency forces had used the navy to supply the city for now. Unfortunately this did not last, as the tiny Roman Navy was recalled to protect imperial territory from Aydinid raids in the Aegean, leaving Thessalonica with at most a token garrison. The City was, while officially part of the Regency camp, effectively left alone to deal with its problems.
At the same time, when the navy had entered the city, it brings with it Alexios’ anti-noble propaganda, leading to the establishment of the Zealots of Thessalonica as the major power in the city. Despite Alexius installing his own son John as governor, John only had nominal power and in fact had to share with the city council and the Zealot's leaders. He was given the title of Archon by the city’s residents and made a member of their council to resolve disputes and dictate policy. But any thoughts of absolute control were brutally and swiftly dashed. Meanwhile, the Zealots, fired up by the “Kantakouzenosism” rhetoric, massacre the city’s nobility, before taking their wealth and setting up what was effectively a de facto independent city-state due to lack of Imperial power projection. With the Zealots under control of their own statelet, their rhetoric would be given a testing ground to put into practice…[3]
Following the debacle at Thessalonica, the Civil War further turned into the favor of the Regency forces as the year went on. By June, Regency forces had taken most of Western Macedonia, and by October they had managed to end the siege of Thessalonica and were launching raids into Epirus and Thessaly. Kantakouzenos’ forces, outnumbered and exhausted, were finally broken in outside the ruins of the ancient town of Pella in March of 1343, removing any substantial resistance to Apokaukos’ makeshift army. Sporadic fighting continued up until the end of the year, but all major fighting had ended by the Midsummer. John Kantakouzenos himself was captured at Pella and sent back to Constantinople, where he was tried and summarily executed in the following year.
Why did Alexius’ army, who by all accounts were mostly peasant militia bolstered by the occasional mercenary unit and defectors from the old regime able to crush the Byzantine army, a far more disciplined and well equipped force? There are several reasons for this. The first was numerical disparity. Alexios used his primitive propaganda machine to recruit from the lowest of society, those eager for any chance to improve their standing. Thanks to the general state of impoverishment of his empire, gave him access to a ready pool of soldiers eager to gain land and wealth for them and their families. This was by the time period a rare chance to quickly improve their standing in life and society and many were eager to take it. Thanks to this willing pool of soldiers, the Regency forces were able to absorb losses far, far better than their opponents, who were a relatively small force of less than 10,000 men. Regency forces were able to regularly match, and later on, surpass their enemies in number. As well, this numerical disparity and ability to tank losses let the regency forces strike hard and fast, barely giving the rebels a chance to rest.
The second was psychology. The army of the regency forces was one noted for its zeal and fanaticism, where the thought of obtaining a slice of the wealth of their enemies appealed to poorest of society and made them eager fighters. Whatever discipline their enemies might have had was matched in its effectiveness by the fanaticism of their opponents. It was as they say, a cornered animal is the most dangerous. It also enjoyed a large amount of support in the countryside, thanks to breaking up many a latifundia, killing hated nobles and other wealthy citizens and looting their enemies lands and distributing it to the people. On the other hand, as the war dragged on and news of defeat and the prospect of their estates being ransacked and taken from then, Kantakouzenos’ army struggled to stay focused to their goal. By the second year of fighting, dissertations were a growing problem. Noble officers feared more for their property than the cause they were fighting for, and many made a deal with the new regime, promising their support in exchange for having their lands secured (which, in most cases, Alexios was pragmatic enough to spare them the mob’s fury). Such things further hollowed out the strength of their camp, leading to more victories by the Regency forces, more seizures of land and massacres of nobles, and more desertions in a desperate attempt to starve off the mob. Quite the vicious cycle. Third and lastly were more obvious and boring reasons such as the Regency army being interestingly enough more organized due to having control of the bulk of the imperial bureaucracy back in Constantinople and Thrace, better supplies thanks to the imperial navy, and of course having access to the state funds directly from the imperial treasury.
[1] Yet another OTL thing that he did after getting Serbian support IOTL as a back up plan; a testament of his diplomatic prowess. Unfortunately, IOTL he was not able to get Ivan Alexander’s support, who adamantly supported the Regency forces. (As a big 'fuck you' to the guy. I honestly forgot why, but the Tsar had a huge personal hatred of John Kantakouzenos. Probably due to getting the Turks to direct their naval raids into Bulgaria)
[2] Interestingly most of the nobility in Thessalonica seemed to have stayed loyal, which is why they didn’t immediately open the gates for John and his men. Unfortunately, that was not enough to save them.
[3] The Zealots did a similar thing in OTL due to effectively being cut off by both sides of the civil war for a few years despite nominally being part of the Regency side.