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Great stuff so far. I'm sure it will get more...interesting...before it gets better.

But without Kantakuzini screwing around and with angry peasants in arms everywhere, quick takeover of the Empire is off the table. It won't be quick.
Yeah this won't be a quick war of a couple weeks. No aristocracy gives up their power earlier. Fortunately, the peasants have 2 things on their side: fanaticism and numbers.

Logical (the Byzantine Senate was controlled by the aristocrats, the only social class which could maybe produce some republican opposition), but regrettable. Beside this particular timelime: I wonder if the Byzantine were aware of the little, not very important fact that the empire, the whole base of the Byzantine state was built under and by a republic, which was the state of their ancestors? Nevertheless, I admit that the medieval republics to which a Byzantine could refer, were little and annoying ennemies of the empire's power and more a plague than an actual lighthouse of temperate, popular government.

Nice. Apokaukos' aim to raise an army has spun out of control. This is probably going to lead to some heavy infighting once the nobles are either completely overthrown or a compromise is reached.
Oh yeah, there's no doubt about it. Its a bit ironic that once the government wins it won't be in complete control despite all the work the Regency forces have put in to cement control. Ive already mentioned the Zealots of Thessalonica as one major faction that comes up, but it won't be the only one. ;)

I'd very much appreciate guesses at who or what group or social strata could amass power in the aftermath of the Civil War.

Shevek would probably consider this timeline 'reactionary', despite the fact that this is actually pretty dang progressive. True, the Byzies don't like the idea of democracy because it's aristocrat-dominated, and (no offense meant) I think AAoM's 'Sub-legal Absolutionism' is ASB, but at least the economic aspects of the Empire in this timeline are more slanted towards meritocracy and the lower classes...or will be once the civil war is done.
Dunno if I'd call this reactionary, at least not in the economic sense for the time. As for the political sense? I dunno, a Prussia style government could be in the works (except replace the Junkers with something like the Scholar-Bureaucrats of China)


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Anyways, I figured you guys have gone too long without seeing the POD, so here it is:

However, Rome’s unmolested metamorphosis could only be allowed thanks to events that prevented the intervention of its neighbors. Thus, while not the catalyst of this events, a good deal of responsibility for the events that unfolded following the death of Andronikos were the actions of the then king of Hungary, Charles. Therefore, let us turn the clock back a few years to 1336. Hungary (or more accurately its king Charles) was at the time embroiled in war with its neighbors and vassals. Yet again.

At the time, the Hungarians were at war with the Serbians to the south due to the latter’s clash with the Banate of Bosnia, a Hungarian satellite. During the year, Charles decided to invade Serbia to aid his Bosnian vassal/ally. Initially successful in invading the Serbian state, his advanced crawled to a halt as the terrain grew more and more rugged the further south he went, allowing the Serbs to reorganize and pull off a successful guerilla defense. With the Serbs striking at supply lines, launching ambushes and grinding down the morale, the Hungarians were in a tight spot. Growing ever more bolder, the Serbs began to launch raids at high profile targets, attempting to kill captains, nobles and even King Charles himself at one point. During that fateful attempt, the king was unfortunately struck by an arrow. Charles was forced into a hasty retreat back north where the bulk of his forces resided. Despite the best treatment of the day, the close call forced Charles died of infection several days afterword. [1] When the news reached the capital, turmoil reigned.

Hungary had been left in the hands of his ten year old son Louis. A regency council was cobbled together, but the damage had already been done. Serbia has taken the incentive and pushed onwards into Bosnia with the attempt of taking the disputed region of Hum. Capturing town after town, the Serbs progressed with little initial difficulty, forcing peace with the Bosnians by the spring of 1337. Hum would be ceded to Serbia and the Serbian friendly Vladislav Nikolic, lord of Popovo Polje was put to rule the Banate of Bosnia. But that’s not it, in the midst of Hungary’s chaos, one Mladen Subic of Croatia rebels and seizes the Banate of Croatia for himself to restore his family’s power. Despite claiming loyalty to the Hungarian king, the actual Hungarian influence of the sub-kingdom was removed, leaving Croatia de facto independent for the time being. And to add to the list of troubles, Venice jumps in attacking and capturing segments of Dalmatia.

Back on the domestic front, the various nobles who had been chafing under Charles’ centralization of the state rise up once more. Although drastically diminished in power, they hope that the disorganization of home would aid them in their endeavor. At the same time, they seek a pretender to give legitimacy for their claim. John of Luxemburg, the current king of Bohemia with ties to the Hungarian throne fits that criteria nicely. With a bit of convincing, he agrees to challenge Louis. Bohemia promptly invades opening yet another front.

WIth all this on his plate, young Louis had his work cut out for him. In the ensuing remainder of the decade Hungary’s massive army (the majority of which loyal to the establishment) worked to quash revolts, enforce vassalage, repel invaders and keep the peace as much as it could, with mixed results. The ensuing civil war, seen as the most pressing issue by the king’s mother and de facto ruler, was ended relatively quickly after 3 years of fighting thanks to the results of the previous rounds of reforms. Said reforms did wonders in ensuring the royal family would always have an advantage in resources over the nobility in terms of land, money and manpower in addition to dramatically weakening the people’s loyalty to any baron via the former’s honor system.

The Magyar kingdom would eventually overcome it obstacles and restore order in the homefront by 1342 followed by pushing out the Bohemians and making a favorable peace but exhaustion and near bankruptcy had set in before it could do anything else. The government knew it could not afford another war in Wallachia, let alone with Serbia and Venice so it conceded defeat. Hum was recognized as Serbian territory and various ports and islands on the Dalmatian coast were tentatively recognized as Venetian territory followed by a truce being signed by all parties. Hungary had whethered the storm, despite leaving the war weaker than at its start. It would be time for the wounds to heal, but for now the kingdom had earned its rest.

[1] This is our POD. IOTL Charles was wounded by an arrow but survived. Here, he does not, throwing Hungary into chaos and prompting Stefan Dusan to focus his energies north into Bosnia. This has repercussions down the road that prevent Dusan from interfering with in the upcoming Roman Civil War.

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