Recent content by jpj1421

Given how linked Lincoln and Grant were politically by the end, I think that he'd be working on Grant to get him to accept the Republican nomination in 1868 absent of Johnson pissing everyone off. Setting that aside, however, I think the Vice Presidential nomination in 1868 is instructive in...

Unfortunately, that ship likely sailed in 1992 when Selig outmaneuvered Fay Vincent and took the job for himself. That was part of W's reason for going into politics, he found himself on the outside for backing Vincent and so took Texas Republicans up on their offer to run. So... Yeah, could...

A lot of people had problems with Germany and for good reason! And that's setting aside how the Germany of the 1890s was not the Germany of the 1930s and 40s. There's much more evidence that FDR had beef with the Japanese going back quite awhile with corresponding actions taken during their...

Nailbiter of a gubenatorial election.

Found it on Wikipedia which pulled it from a paywalled source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida#NORC-sponsored_Florida_Ballot_Project_recount

Well, when the margin is a few hundred votes but there are several thousand overvoting mistakes...it doesn't take all that many confused people to cause a problem.

IMO, the real lesson from 2000 is to make sure your ballot is easily understood by the electorate. A decisive amount of people voted for Pat Buchanan instead of Al Gore by mistake.

The National Opinion Research Center conducted an analysis and found that only a statewide recount would be sufficient for Gore to win. The Gore team's focused recount in four counties would be insufficient to make up the difference. As to your bonus points, The Supreme Court could not...

Going to set aside how FDR helped Smith at the 1924 convention to set him up for the 1928 run....FDR won New York by .6 in 1928 while Al Smith lost it by 2.4...about a 3% difference there. If you apply that same swing to the 1932 election than Hoover wins New Jersey and Ohio while still losing...

Saw this comment and I did want to comment that I do largely agree. Though politics is an older person's game so it would take awhile for new faces to join in. Currently about 1/6 of the members of the House of Representatives were born after the POD, while only 1/20, 4, Senators were. By my...

As to the Democratic primaries, I would say broadly it was an attempt for Democrats to find what worked for them in the nineties, a center-left southerner. But also, a lot of the bigger names we would be familiar with weren't really factors. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-AR) doesn't have the...

Minority government. Confidence and supply with the help of the Liberals after 06, and then an assortment of left of center MPs after 08. It could be that there was some vote splitting on the other side that helped the NDP vote.

Hmm. Traditionally the way this meme is used is acknowledging that there was a misdirection while agreeing with the actual point. So, "they had us in the first half" is an acknowledgment of your misdirection, and in the traditional way the meme is used they would be agreeing with your ultimate...

See now, this discussion has got me writing. But, yeah, from 2004 to 2011 (under Layton), the NDP saw a dramatic rise in support. They went from 8.5% in 2000 to 15.68% in 2004 gain a point or two in the next couple elections before landing at 30.63% in 2011. The Conservatives, when they...

I have a draft of a guest post addressing this very topic! The butterflies finally started really pushing Canadian politics circa 1995 and things have spun off since then. I've got to find some time to get that written up