Recent content by jacobk

I think the back half of the POD is the tough part here. Nazi Germany wasn't exactly set up for a reasonable person to come to power. Even if, per the POD, the new Fuhrer is in fact reasonable, how likely is it that he's perceived as a reasonable honest broker abroad? It's hard to see anybody...

If the Nazi nuclear program weren't such a mess and if the US were full bore head in the sand isolationist and if the lack of Lend-Lease would be enough for the Nazis to beat the USSR and reach a stalemate with Britain then maybe the Nazis can develop a nuclear ICBM. If the US has no nuclear...

I wonder if it might also help produce a more restrained and reasonable Japan. A secure alliance with Britain might dampen the sense of urgency around invading China, for example.

I just googled for US GDP by quarter. The site I wound up on was multpl.com and the data matched what I remembered it ought to be.

The change in the Democrat candidate would have had to tank the market and get Reagan blamed for it. US GDP growth in 1982 by quarter was -2.19%, -1.01%, -2.56%, and -1.44%. US GDP growth in 1983 by quarter was 1.43%, 3.27%, 5.74%, and 7.9%. US GDP growth in the first three quarters of 1984...

I think any sort of "sensible Japan" POD needs a pre-POD that leads to a Japan where the government can tell the military to stand down and make it stick. And, for that matter, where the higher ups in the military can tell the junior officers to stand down and make it stick. I mean, you don't...

This is the logical response. However, from what I understand of the contemporary behavior, nearly everybody involved in or observing the war who hadn't yet mounted an attack themselves looked at the massive casualties befalling attackers and responded: "You idiots just don't know how to attack...

What I always wonder is how far Japan could have gotten if they just pretended the US and US possessions didn't exist. Just sail through international waters, refuse to fire on US ships under any circumstances, and go about their business. Yeah, sure, the Philippines sit right astride their...

The bonus round version of this was Hitler's habit of giving his subordinates overlapping portfolios so that they would spend time fighting with each other instead of potentially conspiring against him. This also allowed him to position himself as the referee of their battles. Which, given that...

The German 20th century in a nutshell: What really doesn't help is Germany ___________________ and hoping _______ can't get there quickly enough to make a difference. Besides avoiding war altogether, the other interesting what-if scenario to me is how the alliances could have shifted given a...

It's hard to say what Germany's actual politics and foreign policy would look like in the event of a CP victory, but at the very least there's not much natural friction between Germany and the US. Neither side has colonial markets to speak of, and both are going to be more interested in opening...

A KMT failure would do it. I think you might also get there if Japanese planners choose to believe the KMT will fail. If they anticipate that Mao is going to remain a thorn in the side thanks to USSR support, and pick their own rogue warlord to provide significant support, they could reasonably...

I wonder if the most plausible POD would involve not going full bore into China. If they stuck to the 1931-37 policy of holding Manchuria and fomenting internal division in the rest of China, that would free up quite a bit of military capacity. It would also keep their reputation somewhere on...

I think the most likely Italy in CP timeline would see Britain out of the Entente. Say Wilhelm puts his foot down right from the start: no marching through Belgium. This snarls up the whole German deployment. By the time they reorganize for a western advance, the French are already trying to...

In terms of really changing the outcome, I think Germany's best bet would be to keep England out of the war. To do that, they ought to stay out of Belgium, stand on defense in the west, and focus on beating the tar out of Russia. This would also bring their strategy in harmony with the terrain...