My apologies, I should have made the point that Ba'athism is not necessarily an Islamist but rather an Arab nationalist movement. That being said, could the Muslim Brotherhood be another possibility? Although I don't think it's capable of morphing into a quasi-fascist movement now, perhaps in...
Though it's not quite fascist a good starting point might be the Ba'athist Ideology. It advocated for the regeneration of arab culture and combined nationalist ideas with a form of "arab" state socialism. Also, the Ba'athist party in both Syria and Iraq were responsible for propelling both...
Here are two options I can see happening:
-A Legitimist or Orleanist restortation in France after losing WW1
-Kurt v. Schleicher, before he was dumped by Hindenburg, was putting out feelers for a Hohenzollern restoration. perhaps in a different post-ww1 environment a restored Kaiserreich could...
First of all, I like the idea you are working on. Turtledove was the one who got me into alternate history, but some of his ideas need some polishing up.
Second, I am not so sure Kentucky wouldn't just secede; by late 1862 Unionist forces were making gains in the state against the Confederates...