WI: What circumstances are required for Case Green to actually happen?

[theirishdreamer]

i know

But its like Bush and Iraq. Churchill seems to think the Irish were just waiting for the British to come back and restore "law and order"

So lets assume its going ahead in conjunction with Sealion with Green as a diversionary attack.
So when would it go ahead do we think? August/September 1940?

 

[sparky42]

But its like Bush and Iraq. Churchill seems to think the Irish were just waiting for the British to come back and restore "law and order"

So lets assume its going ahead in conjunction with Sealion with Green as a diversionary attack.
So when would it go ahead do we think? August/September 1940?

Yeah that's probably a good comparison of the situation, I've even seen the same comments here as well rom time to time.

I suppose that would clearly depend on the situation in the UK, I wonder if there's any list of the ships and Air Force units in NI at this time?

 

[theirishdreamer]

hmmm

The 53rd (Welsh) Infantry Division was based in NI in 1940, along with whatever forces the Unionists had which id assume were close to Civil War levels or close at least.

In terms of Aircraft I don't think there was any, or less than a handful anyway, considering the lack of AA guns in Belfast when it got bombed. According to wikipedia and the DFI 1940 documents page the British planned to send 3 Hurricane squadrons plus 2 Fairey Battle squadrons.

We had
- 4 Gloster Gladiators
- 6 Hawker Hinds
- 6 Avro Ansens

There might have been a Hurricane (there was one operational by the end of 1940 but not sure when it crashed and was repaired).

Id assume a few destroyers around or near Irish waters at the time, the Royals Marines were suppose to land a battalion in Wexford via destroyer on the day any German attack as well - the British thought they'd catch at least 1/3 - 1/2 of any naval expedition even with Sealion occurring owing to no Luftwaffe support for a German force headed for Ireland so that kinda reinforces the idea there was a small force around the Irish sea.

The big thing to me is that Case Green has to occur either before or at the same time as Operation Sealion purely because the objective was to pin down the British forces in Ulster and draw British units away from the "decisive" battle in the UK. Id suspect Sealion will crumble after a few days as the Germans can't support it logistically when the RN enters the channel in force.
According to wiki;

• to draw off British Army troops stationed in Northern Ireland who might otherwise be sent to aid the defence of Britain,
• deny Ireland as a staging point/refuge to British troops,
• provide a staging post to Luftwaffe forces in subduing northern Britain.

from der Fuhrer

"..a landing in Ireland can be attempted only if Ireland requests help. For the present our envoy [assumed to be Dr. Eduard Hempel of the German Legation] must ascertain whether De Valera desires support and whether he wishes to have his military equipment supplemented by captured British war material (guns and ammunition), which could be sent to him in independent ships. Ireland is important to the Commander in Chief, Air, [Göring] as his base for attacks on the north-west ports of Britain, although weather conditions must be investigated. The occupation of Ireland might lead to the end of the war.

 

[sparky42]

I'd say it has to occur pretty much in line with Sealion to have any hope, even 24 hours between them and the combined RAF/RN could hammer the airborne units and challenge the ships and be back ready to counter Sealion.

Coming at the same time they could hope to cause confusion and disruption in the UK command as the had to react to two different events, and without knowing that there was some planning between Ireland and the UK they might have assumed a greater chance then there was.

My two cents anyway.

 

[theirishdreamer]

hmmm

I tend to agree it would make sense to launch them at the same time, as the first wave (in Britain) would likely make landfall largely intact and throwing in the the RAF would be pinned by the initial Luftwaffe waves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Catherine
ie. Operation sail a British force into the Baltic and hope for the best

I was looking at the British implementing something like Catherine prior to Westerbrung, which might I think butterfly the operation entirely and would expose the RN squadron to fairly determined air attack and likely reinforce the German belief that airpower trumps naval power. Combined with the Kriegsmarine surface forces been intact would this be enough for the Germans to have a go at Sealion and Green?