Operation Valkyrie Successful-Peace Terms?

[Athelstane]

This is basically the point I meant to make with my last post here. Germany had literally no bargaining power by the time Valkyrie was initiated.

I'm not disagreeing much, but it's a bit of an exaggeration to say Germany had literally no bargaining power left in July 1944.

Now, the war was obviously lost; short of ASB's descending on Europe, Germany had no way of altering that. But it did still control most of non-Soviet Europe; if did still have the ability to resist for several more months, inflicting hundreds of thousand casualties on the allies, and untold suffering on the captive peoples. All this while the Allies were simultaneously engaged in another total war with Japan on the other side of the planet.

Germany will have to surrender. It will have to be occupied in some form. But even if the surrender is "unconditional," the Allied leaders will not be indifferent to these concerns, and if the new leadership sets the right tone, it can at least shape some of how that surrender unfolds. For one thing, it would almost certainly reduce Soviet control in Central Europe.

 

[Dr.Kafka]

Offer? This is well after the Casablanca Declaration, in which President Roosevelt basically left Stalin and Churchill no choice but to go along with a policy of giving no terms to the German and Japanese governments.

Basically the new German government, whose planned head escapes me, would have been hard pressed to get the Allies to accept anything less than Germany's military forces laying down their arms and an occupation of all lands held by the German state by Allied military forces.

Ludwig Beck would have been President and Carl Friedrich Goerdeler would have been the Chancellor.

The German resistance was a little unrealistic with what they believed they could accomplish (prior to formulating the July 20 plan, Goerdeler actually believed they could simply convince Hitler to resign), and they thought that asking for a Germany with its 1938 borders intact was a reasonable peace proposal. As somebody else suggested, unconditional surrender was the best they were going to get. I think things would have gone better for Germany just from shortening the war by a year, but the occupation by the Western Allies would probably be a little less severe as well. While I'm sure the Soviets would have taken an unconditional surrender by the German government, I don't think this would have changed the way they or the German communists governed their occupation zone.

I'm no expert in this topic, but based on what research I have done, I think the July 20 government would not buried the Holocaust. In the new orders for Operation Valkyrie, the resistance members had actually written that medical supplies would have been sent to concentration camps to help the people being held there. They might have tried to hush up their or the Wehrmacht's complicity in the Holocaust, but since they're ending the Holocaust and helping the victims, I don't see how they're going to prevent news of the Holocaust getting out.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

Let us suppose that Operation Valkyrie is successful and the new German government decides to sue for terms. What does the board think they would offer? And what would the allies accept?

What they planned to offer is on record, roughly:

• An immediate cease-fire, and withdrawal of all German troops to the 1939 borders, except possibly in parts of Poland. (The 1918 border there, I think.)
• Free exchange of all PoWs.
• Nazi war criminals to be punished by a German tribunal.
• No reparations.

IIRC, most of the Schwarze Kapelle thought Germany should keep Austria and the Czech lands, and the areas lost in in 1918-1920 to Poland - there may have been talk about plebiscites there.

This is going to fly like a tungsten kite.

The reaction of the Allies to VALKYRIE will be distrust. "The rats leaving the sinking ship." Most of the U.S. and British leaders were very paranoid about a "Prussianist" military-industrial cabal secretly controlling Germany with the Nazis as front men.

So all German "peace feelers" will be rejected, and the demand for unconditional surrender will be reiterated.


Meanwhile, the remnant of the Axis coalition will dissolve. OTL, Finland, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria all bailed out of the Axis in the next few weeks. Hungary was prevented, and Slovakia suppressed.

The implication of VALKYRIE is that Germany thinks the war is lost. I think the neo-German regime writes off all Axis allies. German forces will be evacuated from France, Belgium, Italy, Norway, and the Balkans. The Axis satellites will collapse or flip. The retreat starts in France after the COBRA breakout of 25-31 July, instead of the idiotic Mortain counterattack.

(This is going to be bad for Finland; Stalin will probably decide that with Germany giving up, he can afford to force complete submission.)

The Warsaw Rebellion will happen as OTL. If the neo-Germans are clever, they will let the Poles have the city, and re-establish the exile government. This will block Stalin from establishing the Communist Lublin government, and drive a wedge among the Allies.

However, in the long term, the neo-Germans have no real choice. The Allies will I think continue to stonewall. Stalin wants to grab everything he can including parts of Germany, and to smash this new regime, which he regards as hardly different from the Nazis.

They can stabilize the military situation. but they can't roll back the tide. They probably repulse an Allied offensive somewhere in September, but that won't change any minds.

At that point, conscience will start to have effects. If German surrender cannot be avoided, what's the point of fighting to delay it, at great cost of German lives and destruction in Germany from bombing?

A wild card is the political and race prisoners of the Nazis. I think few if any of the SK really grasped the depth of Nazi crimes or the conditions of the prisoners. Once they are in power, they will be truly shocked. They may propose a truce for the safe transfer of prisoners to Allied custody, where they can be cared for. If the Allies refuse (as they probably will), the neo-Germans may be so ashamed that it makes additional pressure for surrender.

I think the neo-Germans bite the bullet and surrender no later than October 1944.

 

[DrakonFin]

(This is going to be bad for Finland; Stalin will probably decide that with Germany giving up, he can afford to force complete submission.)

With Hitler or not, Germany and Central Europe would still be where Stalin's interests lay in late summer 1944 and beyond, and I can't see how the situation would have necessarily changed Stalin's conclusions about Finland at this point. Considering that the Soviet government had already on July 12th signalled to the Finns that the demand for unconditional surrender is now off the table, after the Finns managed to stop the Soviet advance on the Karelian isthmus in the so-called Battle of Tali-Ihantala during the previous weeks, I don't think it would be certain or even probable that Stalin would return to demanding the Finns to surrender unconditionally or that he would again assign large formations against the Finnish front after Red Army had not managed to break through in the recent fighting. In the summer of 1944, the Soviets had already concentrated 500 000 - 600 000 men against the Finnish front and suffered something like 100 000 casualties. That had not been enough to crush the Finnish defence or to force Finland into surrender.

It would have been different had the coup taken place a month before, with Stalin still confident that the Finnish front can be broken with (to the Soviets) comparably modest forces. But after mid-July one could argue that Stalin has already abandoned the plan of forcing Finland into submission by brute force. That would again require something to the tune of 300 000 to 400 000 Red Army soldiers, at the very least, and those are much better used in the German front. I think Stalin would rather try to neutralize Finland and to coup the nation from within through his Finnish Communist proxies, despite even the changes in the German leadership and its follow-up effects.

 

[Blackfox5]

Part 1
Breaking this into several parts because it is long.

The German government will make a peace offer which the Allies will immediately reject. Eisenhower will repeat the Allied demand: unconditional surrender.

Informally, the new German government will likely receive word on what to expect in terms of "unconditional surrender". They will be told that all of Germany will be occupied by the Allied powers, that all of its gains since 1933 will be reversed, and that the final disposition will still be decided by the Allies.

This will probably be done fairly quickly in late July and early August.

At that point, they will need to make a decision on what to do. Negotiation obviously won't work. Continuing to fight will still lead to defeat. The only option I see is that the Goerdeler government decides it is in the best interest to facilitate British and American forces and delay the Red Army as much as possible. It will also want to make sure the German satellites get the best deal possible they can. They will also look for opportunities to split the West from the Soviets as much as possible. They hope by creating facts on the ground, they can save as much of Germany as possible from Bolshevism.

New military plans are made. As much as possible, German forces will withdraw from the West. Holding actions will be done to extricate as many German forces possible to send to the east. Any isolated German garrisons on the Atlantic ports wll be ordered to surrender. Evacuation from Holland will begin. German forces in Italy will be told to retreat to the alps and hold Austria.

In the East, the goal is to minimize Soviet influence. The new government will contact Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria and esentially tell them to save themselves after a certain date, but to allow German forces to withdraw to better defend Germany. As German troops make plans to abandon the Balkans, all three countries begin making peace overtures.

Bulgarian PM Ivan Bagrianov is already pro-Western, and Bulgaria is only at war with Britain and America, not the USSR. The only reason Bulgaria did not make a peace before the Soviets invaded is that Bagrianov wanted to be neutral and not declare war on Germany, probably because of feared reprisals. In this scenario, there is no such fear. Bulgaria agrees to all Western demands. In early August, Bulgaria makes peace and declares war on Germany. Out of fear that the Red Army will occupy Bulgaria anyway, the British agree to send a parachute regiment to Sofia. Bulgaria will avoid the fate of being a Soviet satellite.

The next to leave will be Romania. King Michael's Coup moves up one or two weeks. Unfortunately, history will be the same for them. The Red Army still occupies Romania.

The Hungarians will hold out until the British 8th Army from Italy arrives. They are bolstered by German units retreating through Hungary. Hungary will probably continue to fight until September or October when British units can likely enter western Hungary in force. Most likely result for Hungary is OTL's Austria - Hungary is divided into Allied occupation zones with east of Danube controlled by Soviets and west of Danube controlled by Soviets. Most likely, resolution of peace with Hungary must wait until Stalin dies at which point it is agreed Hungary is to be a united, but neutral country in the 1950s.

 

[Blackfox5]

Part 2
Yugoslavia is temporarily occupied by the Red Army in the south, and the British in the north to keep their logistics line open to Hungary. Tito is PM under the King. The political situation in Yugoslavia is more open than IOTL, but Tito will eventually do a self coup once the British occupation forces leave - but this may not be until early 1946.

In early August, the Poles launch Operation Tempest and seize control of Warsaw. Rather than fight the Poles like Hitler did, the Goerdeler government decides it's a heaven sent opportunity to divide the Allies. German forces abandon most of Poland to the Polish Home Army and take up defensive positions along the Oder. Having liberated Warsaw and much of Poland west of the Vistula, the Polish Government in Exile returns to Warsaw and the British agree to divert Polish airborne units to Poland. Stalin fumes. While the Red Army will begin to enter Poland, most of Western Poland is now in control by the government and Western officers are likely also in Poland to coordinate strategy. It will be much harder for the Red Army to disarm Polish partisans and establish their own control.

In September, the Allies launch Operation Market Garden. When word reaches Berlin that Arnhem Bridge is seized, they order the German forces to retreat or surrender. Many units have already been stripped from the West and sent to East to hold off the Soviets. The Allies pierce the Rhine at multiple locations, meeting soft resistance. Most units fight only briefly to retain honor and then surrender, although some units continue to offer significant resistance. Western Allies enter Germany going at same speed as they did in April 1945 at this point. Despite some supply problems, the lack of heavy fighting means priority can be sent for fuel instead of ammunition. Reports are that German morale has collapsed in the West.

Stalin is really angry now, accusing the Allies of making a secret deal with the German government, which is denied. The Polish goverment returned to Warsaw, British troops in Hungary, and a Bulgaria free of Red Army troops is greatly upsetting his plans. Furthermore, the boundaries of the occupation zones in Germany have not been finalized. The more land occupied by the western Allies will likely mean a smaller Soviet zone.
After Allied forces cross the Elbe, the Goerdeler government once again contacts the Allies and announces Germany is prepared to accept the terms of unconditional surrender. V-E Day occurs in early November.

 

[Blackfox5]

Part 3
Occupation zones in Germany are similar to OTL. Czechoslovakia is liberated by American troops on the Bohemian plateau, but by the Red Army in Slovakia. While the Red Army leaves Czechoslovakia as IOTL, the establishment of local Communist officials in Slovakia lead to a separatist crisis later in 1947. Stalin reluctantly admits the Slovaks can't live under Czech domination and supports the new regime.

Poland is the major point of postwar contention. The Polish government returning to Warsaw ruins everything. Stalin need supply lines through Poland for his occupation forces. The Western Allies push Poland to agree to Stalin's border changes to try to appease him. To retain Western support, the Poles agree. Poland's eastern border is more or less as OTL although perhaps with some modifications. The Soviets are also given firm commitments on several "corridors" through Poland which they can use for supply purposes without interference by the Poles. A suitable arrangement is made with heavy legalistic conditions and attributes, more or less to Stalin's advantage. But most of Poland is spared long term Soviet occupation. It is hoped peace with Germany will come quick so that Soviet use of the "corridors" will end.

Soviet position in Eastern Europe is much less than IOTL. By 1948, it'll have Romania, Slovakia, eastern Hungary, and Tito's Yugoslavia. Bulgaria, Bohemia, Austria, and western Hungary are outside its grasp. Poland too is outside of Stalin's sphere, but with a complicated legal relationship.

I think Stalin's main goal is to legitimate what conquests he has with Western acceptance of the status quo in Romania and Slovakia, and neutralization in the rest of Europe. He wants America out of Europe. Soviet position in Germany is not sustainable without control of Poland and the rest of eastern Europe. So instead he pushes for the best deal he can - immense reparations, disarmament, German neutrality, and a push for some kind of Soviet role in a pan-European defense structure. If possible, a partition of Germany into "natural" regions - a Rhineland, Bavaria, and Saxony. I think Stalin will get a lot of what he desires, but not everything. Peace treaty with Germany is signed in early 1950s.

 

[RousseauX]

I think one of the main objectives of Valkyrie was the army taking on much of the power of the SS, so I doubt Himmler would have wriggled into power if it was successful.

He actually might.

For the simple reason the top layer of the army are either committed Nazis or utter Opportunists and the plotters have no base of power on their own. There is no reason to believe that anyone would be taking orders from Fromm or Stauffenberg even if Hitler dies.

 

[RousseauX]

Your forgetting the Allies dont know the future. The Normandy invasion is a huge risk for them, and could easily have been lost. As far they know they couldve lost the war and a Germany offeirng peace so soon before any invasion would be seen as a huge savior of life and materials, and there could be a much bigger chance of negotating than you think.

Thats what I hate about this forumn, its always how evil nations will get ther due becasue of OTL. But a butterfly effect can change anything. Lets say a butterfly effect a week or so, or longer, say a few months before, allows the Operatoin to kill Hitler, those butterflies could effect the entire war, and if the DDay invasion fails, the Germans would be in a higher position to negotiate.

Valkyrie occurred largely -because- the battle of Normandy was all but lost and the Eastern front was maybe 4 weeks away from being gone. The plotters needed a way for Germany out ASAP.

If somehow D-Day fails or if D-Day haven't happened yet, then the plotters don't have enough reasons to kill Hitler, as long as Germany look like it's not going to lose horribly, it's politically difficult/impossible even among the conspirators themselves to launch a coup.

 

[KarneeKarnay]

The question here is not the possibility of a better surrender, (That is out of the question.), but instead the possibility of a better outcome to the end of WWII.

If the Germans surrender to the Allies then the USSR will have to stop it's offence, unless it wants the Allies and Germany against them.

 

[The Red]

If the Germans surrender to the Allies then the USSR will have to stop it's offence, unless it wants the Allies and Germany against them.

The 1942 United Nations Declaration stated that signatory nations would not seek to negotiate a separate peace with Germany or Japan.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

So instead he pushes for the best deal he can - immense reparations, disarmament, German neutrality, and a push for some kind of Soviet role in a pan-European defense structure.

If he's gonna do that, maybe he would accept Marshall Plan aid, if the U.S. bothers offering it to him in this timeline.

Good scenario. Not sure how realistic it is, seems like it's on the optimistic side, but imagining the ensuing Cold War with a weaker Soviet hold on Eastern Europe would be very fascinating. If the USSR has to play the diplomatic game because there's less land behind the Iron Curtain, it would be fascinating to see what the side effects are.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

and the Eastern front was maybe 4 weeks away from being gone.

Uh... it wasn't "4 weeks away" from being gone. It practically was gone. Both Operation Bagration and the Lvov-Sandomierz Offensive had already annihilated Army Group Center and Army Group North Ukraine respectively.

 

[Dr.Kafka]

Part 1
Informally, the new German government will likely receive word on what to expect in terms of "unconditional surrender". They will be told that all of Germany will be occupied by the Allied powers, that all of its gains since 1933 will be reversed, and that the final disposition will still be decided by the Allies.

This will probably be done fairly quickly in late July and early August.

At that point, they will need to make a decision on what to do. Negotiation obviously won't work. Continuing to fight will still lead to defeat. The only option I see is that the Goerdeler government decides it is in the best interest to facilitate British and American forces and delay the Red Army as much as possible. It will also want to make sure the German satellites get the best deal possible they can. They will also look for opportunities to split the West from the Soviets as much as possible. They hope by creating facts on the ground, they can save as much of Germany as possible from Bolshevism.

New military plans are made. As much as possible, German forces will withdraw from the West. Holding actions will be done to extricate as many German forces possible to send to the east. Any isolated German garrisons on the Atlantic ports wll be ordered to surrender. Evacuation from Holland will begin. German forces in Italy will be told to retreat to the alps and hold Austria.

In the East, the goal is to minimize Soviet influence. The new government will contact Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria and esentially tell them to save themselves after a certain date, but to allow German forces to withdraw to better defend Germany. As German troops make plans to abandon the Balkans, all three countries begin making peace overtures.
[/FONT][/COLOR]

While that doesn't seem unreasonable, I don't think that's the most likely course of action. The July 20 government had two people in position to be the foreign minister; the position would be filled by whichever of the two negotiated a peace settle first, whether with the Soviets or the Western Allies. This suggests that they are just as interested in preventing the Americans and British from advancing as they are the Soviets. However, their choice of Schulenberg as the envoy to the USSR shows that they had very unrealistic views of what could actually be accomplished in a peace settlement with Stalin.

If they accept that unconditional surrender is the only possibility, it seems like they would just surrender. I don't really see them continuing to fight the Soviets while allowing the Western Allies to advance if they already see unconditional surrender as an inevitability.

Part 2
Yugoslavia is temporarily occupied by the Red Army in the south, and the British in the north to keep their logistics line open to Hungary. Tito is PM under the King. The political situation in Yugoslavia is more open than IOTL, but Tito will eventually do a self coup once the British occupation forces leave - but this may not be until early 1946.

The British would have to put the king in place by force; by July 1944 it was already decided that the question of the monarchy's future would not be decided until after the war. In OTL, the Communists won by a landslide despite British oversight. I don't see a successful Valkyrie decreasing the popularity of the communists.

 

[raharris1973]

Variations and alternatives to Blackfox's ideas

Blackfox's neat ideas go off of two main premises: A) the new regime knows that defeat is inevitable and cannot be bargained away, B) However, it can manipulate facts on the ground to make the postwar "less bad" for itself.

Blackfox's idea envisions a "tilt" to the western allies.

Another option for the Germans is manipulating the facts on the ground to maximize the distraction factor for all allies, increasing their suspicions of each other and giving them something else to worry about besides focused pursuit:

A) So, as in Black Fox's suggestion, yield power in Eastern Europe to satellite regimes desirous of dealing with the west- Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, and to the non-communist resistance in occupied Poland and what's left of the Baltics. Might as well free all Chetniks in Yugoslavia too and tip them off to where any heavy weapons are abandoned.

But in the west and south of Europe

B) Reverse this process. In Italy, France and Greece, give the Communist resistance leaders a head start by freeing them, leaving them heavy weapons and control of the jails housing noncommunist prisoners.

This sets up a political minefield, and potentially a diplomatic one for the advancing Soviets *and* advancing western Allies. They need to divert some effort and resources to either mediating between often fratricidal national/local political factions or crushing disfavored ones. Each time the latter option is chosen by the Soviets or Western Allies, it creates major opportunity for the other side to take offense & begin getting angry at someone besides Germany.

With this approach, Romania, it is true will be occupied by force before it has any effect, but Poland will at least become a political mess for the Soviets even if in several weeks Soviet columns can physically range across all Polish territory. Bulgaria could work out as Blackfox suggests.

Meanwhile, the Greek Communists could be tempted to dicker with would be British occupiers while massacring their local political opponents and setting up administrations. The Communist Italian partisans and French resisters will make their own power plays while probably being more circumspect and less bloody than the Greeks. By the time the western forces are ready to press into Germany in strength, they've had time (a few weeks) to start worrying about the potential for Communist domination in France and Italy and continental dominance by the USSR. Meanwhile, they will likely not be satisfied by Soviet policies in Romania and Poland.

Likewise, by the time Soviet forces ready to overrun the German border in strength are in position, they have plenty of time to get suspicious of and dissatisfied with the Western Allies and non-communist factions they are colluding with in both Central and Western Europe.

This all gives Germany a little more bargaining power in dealing with Allied commanders, possibly allowing for more escapes and for more thorough civilian evacuations of some imperiled areas.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I don't think this changes much. Germany still surrenders unconditionally and I think the occupation zones would have been the same. Maybe WAllied troops move faster and they liberate Prague.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Desert Fox- more like crazy like a fox! That's a pretty cool strategy in the face of the inevitable, and timeline-worthy.

 

[anotherlurker]

unconditional surrender and facing the very real possibility of dying in sibera through forced laber are a hell of a deal.

the only thing a successful valkyrie would do is create a new stab in the back legend which would keep hitlerism around even longer with all the implications, domestic and foreign. there's also the possibility of a mogenthau germany/germanies if the soviets are far away in the east and not a threat.

conclusion: germany getting f***ed even more.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

A couple of issues on the concept.


All the Major allied powers were agreed on the destruction of what the British called the Reich System, which means a root and branch destruction of germany and its rebuilding to a manner acceptable to the UN (liberal democracy for the Wallies, Democratic Socialism for the USSR. The german proposals are aimed at the preservation of that system. It wont fly.

its worth quoting the actual draft surrender terms.

1. All German armed forces, including paramilitary and other auxiliary organisations equipped with weapons, will be completely disarmed.

2. The personnel of these formations may be declared to be prisoners of war at the discretion of the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the Allied state concerned.

3. All German forces will remain in their present position pending further instruction., All German forces will be evacuated from territories outside the frontiers of GERMANY according to Allied instructions,

4. Allied Representatives will designate detachments of civil police for maintenance of order.

5. All aircraft will remain grounded pending further instructions.

6. All German shipping will remain in, or proceed to, specified ports.

7. All arms, ammunition, equipment and other war materials, naval vessels, aircraft, transportation and communication facilities, military installations and establishments, and all factories, shops and research institutions producing the same, shall be held intact and in good condition at the disposal of Allied Representatives. German authorities will furnish labour services required for the maintenance or operation of the foregoing as well as any information or records in connection with the same.

8. The Germans will facilitate the movement of Allied troops, equipment and supplies, and will maintain all means of transportation in good order and repair.

9. The German authorities will release to the Allies all United Nations prisoners of war and will provide adequately for them pending their release. Likewise, they will provide for and release all other nationals of the United Nations as instructed.

10. The Germans will furnish full information regarding the numbers, locations and dispositions of armed forces and all minefields, mines and other obstacles to movement by land, sea and air.

11. All obstacles to movement by land, sea and air, including minefields will be rendered as safe as possible -- German authorities will provide the necessary labour and equipment to remove all such obstacles. Safety lanes through minefields will be clearly marked.

12. The Germans will prevent the destruction, removal and concealment of all property records and archives.

13. Pending control by Allied Representatives over all means of telecommunication, wire and wireless transmission will cease except as directed by the Allied Representatives.

14. The Allies will station forces and civil agencies in any part of GERMANY as they may determine.

15. The three governments shall possess supreme authority with regard to GERMANY.

16. Additional requirements will be issued in the form of proclamations orders, ordinances and instructions and all Germans will comply therewith. In the case of violations the Allied Representatives will take whatever action may be deemed necessary.

While the Germans may attempt to surrender to the Wallies the above is what the allies mean by surrender. Any of the other matters would be regarded as local surrenders by local forces. It would not for example prevent the Western Air forces continuing to fly over Germany at will.

The situation in Poland really depends on the actual state of supply of Soviet forces. If they actually are able to move there is no reason why they could not enter Warsaw as Allies and whatever the Polish governments view I suspect the average Pole would welcome them - or least not immediately erupt into fighting against them.

Orders to not fight the Wallies effectively means opening up the French ports very early which by and large solves the Wally, but not the soviet logistic problems. Of itself

 

[Strategos' Risk]

A chaotic postwar by alternatively backing communist and anti-communist forces in previously Axis-occupied areas would be quite interesting. Salt the earth, politically speaking.