Incidently, If chrétien refused to step down on his own, I'm not familiar with the internal rules of the Liberal party on how to go about dismissing their leader but they would probably need, at least officialy, to justify it as him having lost the referendum. If they went out publically and said that it was because he was from a quebec riding, the implication would be that they have already recognised it as a separate country which the oher parties would use to call an election
OUI: Vive le Québec libre
- Thread starter DStecks
- Start date
Update 5
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Hull, Québec
12:30 PM, November 11, 1995
The restaurant they had picked for the meeting wasn't the high-end affair that MPs as powerful as them would usually attend following the Remembrance Day ceremony, but the meeting they had planned was hardly usual. Sheila Copps found Brian Tobin and Joe Fontana in a booth at the back of the restaurant. They were already having a discussion, presumably an important one, since the two men hushed up when the maître d' approached.
Copps sat at the booth next to Fontana, across from Tobin. Sheila Copps and Brian Tobin were compatriots from the days of the Mulroney government, along with Don Boudria and John Nunziata; upstart young Liberals known in the public consciousness as the "Rat Pack". Joe Fontana was an outsider to the group, though he was slowly rising in the party himself. He sat as Ontario chair of the Liberal caucus, served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Transportation, and played in a band with Jean Chretien and Roger Gallaway.
A waitress walked up to the table.
A week before the referendum, Tobin, Copps, and a select number of other Liberal MP's had met to discuss plans for the event of a separatist victory. They believed that the upper positions of government were too dominated by Québécois MP's, and that it would bring the legitimacy of any negotiations into question. Paul Martin, Marcel Massé, Michel Dupuy, and of course, the Prime Minister himself, were all elected from Québec ridings. The MP's all concluded that the negotiations would need to be led by a non-Québecker, and that potentially, the Prime Minister himself would need to resign.
Tobin took a sip of water.
Tobin looked at him and leaned over.
CHRETIEN OPEN TO NEGOTIATIONS
-The Toronto Star, November 11th, 1995
---------------------------
Hull, Québec
12:30 PM, November 11, 1995
"Bonjour, Ms. Copps, your colleagues are already waiting for you at the table. Please follow me," the maître d' said.
The restaurant they had picked for the meeting wasn't the high-end affair that MPs as powerful as them would usually attend following the Remembrance Day ceremony, but the meeting they had planned was hardly usual. Sheila Copps found Brian Tobin and Joe Fontana in a booth at the back of the restaurant. They were already having a discussion, presumably an important one, since the two men hushed up when the maître d' approached.
"Thank you," she said.
"Avec plaisir," the maître d' replied. He turned to the men. "Messieurs, are you ready to order?"
"No actually," Tobin said, "we're still thinking it over."
"Very well, I will make sure you are checked on soon," the maître d' said, then left the table.
"Avec plaisir," the maître d' replied. He turned to the men. "Messieurs, are you ready to order?"
"No actually," Tobin said, "we're still thinking it over."
"Very well, I will make sure you are checked on soon," the maître d' said, then left the table.
Copps sat at the booth next to Fontana, across from Tobin. Sheila Copps and Brian Tobin were compatriots from the days of the Mulroney government, along with Don Boudria and John Nunziata; upstart young Liberals known in the public consciousness as the "Rat Pack". Joe Fontana was an outsider to the group, though he was slowly rising in the party himself. He sat as Ontario chair of the Liberal caucus, served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Transportation, and played in a band with Jean Chretien and Roger Gallaway.
"I assume that we're here to talk about our previous... meeting?" Copps asked.
"Of course," Tobin replied, "I've already filled Joe in."
"Just so you know," Fontana said, "I'm with this 100%."
"Is Don not joining us?" Copps asked.
"No," said Tobin, "he'd never go along with it."
"Have you even broached the topic with him?" she asked.
"If I did, it would reach the Prime Minister's ear. We can't afford that yet."
"Of course," Tobin replied, "I've already filled Joe in."
"Just so you know," Fontana said, "I'm with this 100%."
"Is Don not joining us?" Copps asked.
"No," said Tobin, "he'd never go along with it."
"Have you even broached the topic with him?" she asked.
"If I did, it would reach the Prime Minister's ear. We can't afford that yet."
A waitress walked up to the table.
"Hi, are you ready to order?" she asked.
Tobin looked at her. "Yes, we'll have three specials," he said curtly.
"OK, sounds good," the waitress said, then left.
"What is the special?" Fontana asked.
"I have no idea," Tobin replied.
Tobin looked at her. "Yes, we'll have three specials," he said curtly.
"OK, sounds good," the waitress said, then left.
"What is the special?" Fontana asked.
"I have no idea," Tobin replied.
A week before the referendum, Tobin, Copps, and a select number of other Liberal MP's had met to discuss plans for the event of a separatist victory. They believed that the upper positions of government were too dominated by Québécois MP's, and that it would bring the legitimacy of any negotiations into question. Paul Martin, Marcel Massé, Michel Dupuy, and of course, the Prime Minister himself, were all elected from Québec ridings. The MP's all concluded that the negotiations would need to be led by a non-Québecker, and that potentially, the Prime Minister himself would need to resign.
"So, how exactly are we going to convince Chretien to not negotiate himself?" Fontana asked.
"We could pitch it as a way to politically insulate himself from the talks. That way if things go pear-shaped, he stands some chance of salvaging his reputation," said Copps.
"It wouldn't work, he's the PM, he's going to take the fall for all of this no matter what," Fontana replied.
"Almost certainly," Tobin said, "but that doesn't mean he couldn't be persuaded otherwise."
"We could just tell him the truth," said Fontana, "tell him that it would be for the best if the head of negotiations isn't from a Québec riding."
"But wouldn't that also question his legitimacy as PM?" Tobin asked.
"Not necessarily," Copps said, "There's precedent for a Prime Minister to not be a currently sitting MP. John Turner never held a seat in Parliament while he was PM."
"John Turner was never the Prime Minister of a sitting Parliament!" Fontana replied.
"It doesn't matter," said Copps, "he'd accept that even if it's legitimate, a Quebecker-dominated negotiation team would be a public relations catastrophe that could doom the party."
"We could pitch it as a way to politically insulate himself from the talks. That way if things go pear-shaped, he stands some chance of salvaging his reputation," said Copps.
"It wouldn't work, he's the PM, he's going to take the fall for all of this no matter what," Fontana replied.
"Almost certainly," Tobin said, "but that doesn't mean he couldn't be persuaded otherwise."
"We could just tell him the truth," said Fontana, "tell him that it would be for the best if the head of negotiations isn't from a Québec riding."
"But wouldn't that also question his legitimacy as PM?" Tobin asked.
"Not necessarily," Copps said, "There's precedent for a Prime Minister to not be a currently sitting MP. John Turner never held a seat in Parliament while he was PM."
"John Turner was never the Prime Minister of a sitting Parliament!" Fontana replied.
"It doesn't matter," said Copps, "he'd accept that even if it's legitimate, a Quebecker-dominated negotiation team would be a public relations catastrophe that could doom the party."
Tobin took a sip of water.
"So," Fontana asked, "who would be the lead negotiator, then?"
"It needs to be somebody the PM trusts implicitly." Tobin said.
"That kinda narrows down the list if we're excluding MP's from Québec," said Fontana.
"It should be somebody we can influence. Somebody with a position in the government, but not too powerful. And, we want somebody unambitious, so Chretien won't be worried they might turn it into a power play," said Tobin.
"I think I know who you're suggesting," Copps said, "you think he'd go for it?"
"Why wouldn't he? He's one of the Prime Minister's staunchest defenders, he'd go for this as an attempt to politically shield the PM."
"Who exactly are we talking about?" Fontana asked.
"It needs to be somebody the PM trusts implicitly." Tobin said.
"That kinda narrows down the list if we're excluding MP's from Québec," said Fontana.
"It should be somebody we can influence. Somebody with a position in the government, but not too powerful. And, we want somebody unambitious, so Chretien won't be worried they might turn it into a power play," said Tobin.
"I think I know who you're suggesting," Copps said, "you think he'd go for it?"
"Why wouldn't he? He's one of the Prime Minister's staunchest defenders, he'd go for this as an attempt to politically shield the PM."
"Who exactly are we talking about?" Fontana asked.
Tobin looked at him and leaned over.
"Don."
"Don Boudria?" Fontana asked. "He's just the whip, wouldn't it be strange for him to lead a critical negotiation?"
"That's where Sheila comes in," Tobin said, "as Deputy PM, you could suggest the creation of some ad hoc cabinet position who would lead negotiations. "Minister for Sovereignty Issues" or something. You recommend Don for the job, for all the reasons we discussed."
"That actually would help two ways," Fontana said, lowering his voice, "with him out of the way as whip, I'd stand a much better chance of being able to get the Ontario MP's voting the way we want if... the worst-case scenario happens."
"Who replaces Boudria as whip?" Copps asked.
Tobin smiled. "Joe does."
"Don Boudria?" Fontana asked. "He's just the whip, wouldn't it be strange for him to lead a critical negotiation?"
"That's where Sheila comes in," Tobin said, "as Deputy PM, you could suggest the creation of some ad hoc cabinet position who would lead negotiations. "Minister for Sovereignty Issues" or something. You recommend Don for the job, for all the reasons we discussed."
"That actually would help two ways," Fontana said, lowering his voice, "with him out of the way as whip, I'd stand a much better chance of being able to get the Ontario MP's voting the way we want if... the worst-case scenario happens."
"Who replaces Boudria as whip?" Copps asked.
Tobin smiled. "Joe does."
Man, this would be a schmozzle.
But an interesting schmozzle.
I have a sense of how a best-case scenario might work out, and will attempt to post something coherent on the matter in the near future.
Supplementary Material 1: The Players
Since this is a topic with appeal beyond "people who were political junkies in Canada in the 90's", I think it might be helpful to explain who the people are who've been featured so far in the TL, and who will be important as we go forward.
[Note: this is not a definitive list, and more people will be described in future Supplementary Materials.]
Jean Chrétien, Prime Minister of Canada
Elected in a landslide victory in 1993, Jean Chrétien rose to power amidst the death of the Progressive Conservative party. Chrétien had formerly been Trudeau's justice minister, and faced no serious competition at the Liberal leadership convention where he won the party's leadership.
His character as PM is somewhat hard to quantify, and can't be easily summed up. I couldn't even tell you if I think he was a good Prime Minister. His government managed and suppressed separatism when it reached its peak, but arguably also acted recklessly, making no plans for what to do if the "yes" vote won. The Chrétien government, with the hindsight that 2014 offers us, was the last hurrah for the old political alignment, for the era of unquestioned Eastern dominance in Ottawa.
Jacques Parizeau
Premier of Québec and champion of sovereignty. He was the public face of separatism until Lucien Bouchard's Bloc Québécois swept the vast majority of Québec's federal ridings. As premier, though, he now becomes the locus of the sovereignty issue, as Bouchard withdraws from Ottawa and Parizeau vies to become the first head of state of an independent Québec.
Sheila Copps
Deputy Prime Minister, and the first woman to hold that office. Copps finished third in the Liberal Party leadership convention that selected Chrétien, finishing behind future PM Paul Martin. A flamboyant supporter of minority rights and the environment, Copps was part of the so-called "Rat Pack", a group of Liberal MP's who made a name for themselves during the Mulroney administration, when the Liberal Party held little real power in the House.
Like fellow Rat Pack member John Nunzianta, her political career would be derailed by her firm stance on the GST. Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives had implemented a sales tax on most consumer goods, as a way to raise revenues. Chrétien had promised to repeal the GST, but decided against it on the basis that it made too much money for the government to cut. Copps took a stand against the party line, and was ostracized for it.
Don Boudria
Party whip and later Head of Government in the House, Don Boudria was another member of the "Rat Pack." An ardent supporter of Chrétien, who gained the nickname "Binder Boy" for handing Chrétien notes from a white binder during question time.
Boudria never sought any higher office than he was elected to, and never made any indications that he desired to. His political career would be ended when Paul Martin became leader of the Liberal Party, and his previous loyalty to Chrétien became a liability.
Brian Tobin
Another Rat Pack member; in 1995 Tobin was Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, and in the capacity of this job, made himself a very high-profile member of the Canadian government. He led the so-called "Turbot War", a fishing dispute between Canada and Spain; and organized a huge pro-Canada rally in Montreal before the sovereignty referendum, for which he earned the nickname "Captain Canada".
In 1996, he would resign his cabinet position to become Premier of Newfoundland, though he would return to federal politics in 2000. A run for Prime Minister was always expected from him, but never materialized. It is believed that he left federal politics a second time because he did not believe that he had a chance at the leadership with Paul Martin having a stranglehold on the upper echelons of the party.
Herb Gray
Leader of Government in the House of Commons, and Canada's first Jewish federal cabinet minister. An elder statesman of Canadian politics by '95, Herb Gray is the longest continuously-serving Member of Parliament in Canadian history, having been elected to his riding twelve times, from 1962 until his retirement 40 years later.
Since this is a topic with appeal beyond "people who were political junkies in Canada in the 90's", I think it might be helpful to explain who the people are who've been featured so far in the TL, and who will be important as we go forward.
[Note: this is not a definitive list, and more people will be described in future Supplementary Materials.]
Jean Chrétien, Prime Minister of Canada
Elected in a landslide victory in 1993, Jean Chrétien rose to power amidst the death of the Progressive Conservative party. Chrétien had formerly been Trudeau's justice minister, and faced no serious competition at the Liberal leadership convention where he won the party's leadership.
His character as PM is somewhat hard to quantify, and can't be easily summed up. I couldn't even tell you if I think he was a good Prime Minister. His government managed and suppressed separatism when it reached its peak, but arguably also acted recklessly, making no plans for what to do if the "yes" vote won. The Chrétien government, with the hindsight that 2014 offers us, was the last hurrah for the old political alignment, for the era of unquestioned Eastern dominance in Ottawa.
Jacques Parizeau
Premier of Québec and champion of sovereignty. He was the public face of separatism until Lucien Bouchard's Bloc Québécois swept the vast majority of Québec's federal ridings. As premier, though, he now becomes the locus of the sovereignty issue, as Bouchard withdraws from Ottawa and Parizeau vies to become the first head of state of an independent Québec.
Sheila Copps
Deputy Prime Minister, and the first woman to hold that office. Copps finished third in the Liberal Party leadership convention that selected Chrétien, finishing behind future PM Paul Martin. A flamboyant supporter of minority rights and the environment, Copps was part of the so-called "Rat Pack", a group of Liberal MP's who made a name for themselves during the Mulroney administration, when the Liberal Party held little real power in the House.
Like fellow Rat Pack member John Nunzianta, her political career would be derailed by her firm stance on the GST. Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives had implemented a sales tax on most consumer goods, as a way to raise revenues. Chrétien had promised to repeal the GST, but decided against it on the basis that it made too much money for the government to cut. Copps took a stand against the party line, and was ostracized for it.
Don Boudria
Party whip and later Head of Government in the House, Don Boudria was another member of the "Rat Pack." An ardent supporter of Chrétien, who gained the nickname "Binder Boy" for handing Chrétien notes from a white binder during question time.
Boudria never sought any higher office than he was elected to, and never made any indications that he desired to. His political career would be ended when Paul Martin became leader of the Liberal Party, and his previous loyalty to Chrétien became a liability.
Brian Tobin
Another Rat Pack member; in 1995 Tobin was Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, and in the capacity of this job, made himself a very high-profile member of the Canadian government. He led the so-called "Turbot War", a fishing dispute between Canada and Spain; and organized a huge pro-Canada rally in Montreal before the sovereignty referendum, for which he earned the nickname "Captain Canada".
In 1996, he would resign his cabinet position to become Premier of Newfoundland, though he would return to federal politics in 2000. A run for Prime Minister was always expected from him, but never materialized. It is believed that he left federal politics a second time because he did not believe that he had a chance at the leadership with Paul Martin having a stranglehold on the upper echelons of the party.
Herb Gray
Leader of Government in the House of Commons, and Canada's first Jewish federal cabinet minister. An elder statesman of Canadian politics by '95, Herb Gray is the longest continuously-serving Member of Parliament in Canadian history, having been elected to his riding twelve times, from 1962 until his retirement 40 years later.
Update 6
BY PHIL RYAN | In a landmark ruling that will forever change the course of Canada's history, the Supreme Court has ruled that the October referendum was a legitimate declaration of Québec's intent to become sovereign. In a unanimous decision, the court ruled that a specific target majority could not be retroactively imposed on the vote, and that the referendum question's alleged "lack of clarity" was not a valid objection to its outcome. To quote Chief Justice Lamer, "a part of democracy is trusting that the electorate acts in good faith. If we decide now to second-guess the intent of voters, it would bring into question every public vote held in Canada."
The court did hold, however, that Québec cannot secede from Canada unilaterally. Canada and Québec must come to mutually agreeable terms for independence, the ruling stated, and the agreement must be codified as an amendment to the Constitution.
The office of the Minister for Sovereignty Issues, Don Boudria, released a statement today that the minister looks forward to working with Québec's delegation to arrive at an agreement which satisfies both Canada and Québec. The ministry was created in early January to assemble a team of top negotiators, and to research and draft legislation which would deal with any future sovereignty issues.
SUPREME COURT RULES REFERENDUM BINDING
-The Globe and Mail, February 19th, 1996
-The Globe and Mail, February 19th, 1996
BY PHIL RYAN | In a landmark ruling that will forever change the course of Canada's history, the Supreme Court has ruled that the October referendum was a legitimate declaration of Québec's intent to become sovereign. In a unanimous decision, the court ruled that a specific target majority could not be retroactively imposed on the vote, and that the referendum question's alleged "lack of clarity" was not a valid objection to its outcome. To quote Chief Justice Lamer, "a part of democracy is trusting that the electorate acts in good faith. If we decide now to second-guess the intent of voters, it would bring into question every public vote held in Canada."
The court did hold, however, that Québec cannot secede from Canada unilaterally. Canada and Québec must come to mutually agreeable terms for independence, the ruling stated, and the agreement must be codified as an amendment to the Constitution.
The office of the Minister for Sovereignty Issues, Don Boudria, released a statement today that the minister looks forward to working with Québec's delegation to arrive at an agreement which satisfies both Canada and Québec. The ministry was created in early January to assemble a team of top negotiators, and to research and draft legislation which would deal with any future sovereignty issues.
I want to keep this TL fairly tight and focused; part of what burned me out on Jesus Walks (not that it's dead, just on hiatus) was how all-encompassing I tried to make it, and had to be, by virtue of its scope.
That having been said, you can expect at least a couple updates to deal with how 22 Minutes and Air Farce react to all this.
I suspect there will be many replays of a certain Wayne and Shuster skit from the sixties I think.
something about sitting on a park bench trying to have a conversation while being harassed by a language cop.
something about sitting on a park bench trying to have a conversation while being harassed by a language cop.
I want to keep this TL fairly tight and focused; part of what burned me out on Jesus Walks (not that it's dead, just on hiatus) was how all-encompassing I tried to make it, and had to be, by virtue of its scope.
That having been said, you can expect at least a couple updates to deal with how 22 Minutes and Air Farce react to all this.
What will you do about the preceeding Cree and Inuit referendums? And the Mohawk? This will be ugly.
IIRC, Québec had made statements that they would respect the wishes of the Cree, whether that means that they would have been OK with the north getting partitioned off is a question that will be resolved in negotiations.
As a fellow Canadian political junkie who actually knows some of the folks involved, I am quite enjoying this.
You should include the reaction of the Reform Party. You can bet Manning will be demanding to be recognized as the Leader of the Official Opposition, and maybe even claiming that Chretien is illegitimate as PM. The sentiment in the west of "good riddance" to Quebec would be significant and you would see it reflected in Parliament. Things could get very dicey, very fast for the Chretien government.
You should include the reaction of the Reform Party. You can bet Manning will be demanding to be recognized as the Leader of the Official Opposition, and maybe even claiming that Chretien is illegitimate as PM. The sentiment in the west of "good riddance" to Quebec would be significant and you would see it reflected in Parliament. Things could get very dicey, very fast for the Chretien government.
and then after the next "federal" election expect any deal made to be tossed.......ya....very messy indeed.
A few points you might be interested in that I wrote down while researching my Farewell my Canada timeline:
--------------
In the speech prepared for parizeau in the event of a yes victory OTL, the following points were made:
1- promise to give autonomy to the 11 native tribes of Quebec
2- enshrine the rights of the anglophone community in a future Quebec constitution.
3- Lucien Bouchard as chief negotiator for the Province. In the spirit of togetherness, an offer would be made that Daniel Johnson name 3 negotiators of his own choosing to represent the Official Opposition and assist Bouchard during negociation.
point one is obviously to help prevent partition up north and of the mohawk territory, not sure there would be a large movement to partition among the wendat as that would make them an enclave and being mostly french speaker would not have the same historical issues as some other tribes.
point 2 helps to calm down certain fear and can also be used as a bargaining chip to ensure thhat francophones in the rest of canada don't suffer a backlash in term of access to french language services.
point 3 would prevent the liberals complaining about the results of the negociations.
------------
A bigraphy on Jean Chretien quote David Colonette (Minister of Defence at the time) as saying he had considered sending troops to quebec in unmarked vehicles following a yes victory to prevent a takeover of federal assets. If questioned, the offical reason was to prevent vandalism from celebrating sovereignists
------------
Altough they had lost all their MNA at the previous election (meaning 4), The Equality Party under Keith Hendersen trie to remain relevant in the lead up to the referendum by stating that a UDI would be illegal (no matter the circumstances) and that in the event of a YES victory, partition should be enacted. One version envisioned was for the west Island, Eastern Township Northern Quebec and Pontiac but the resolution they sent to many municipalities (some of which passed it) read thusly:
"Resolved: Regardless of the outcome of any referendum on the independence of Quebec conducted by the government of the province of Quebec, the Government of Canada guarantee forthwith the rights of loyal citizens of Canada, where they form the majority in any provincial riding in Quebec, to remain citizens of Canada, territorially part of the Canadian nation and people, one and indivisible."
--------------
In the speech prepared for parizeau in the event of a yes victory OTL, the following points were made:
1- promise to give autonomy to the 11 native tribes of Quebec
2- enshrine the rights of the anglophone community in a future Quebec constitution.
3- Lucien Bouchard as chief negotiator for the Province. In the spirit of togetherness, an offer would be made that Daniel Johnson name 3 negotiators of his own choosing to represent the Official Opposition and assist Bouchard during negociation.
point one is obviously to help prevent partition up north and of the mohawk territory, not sure there would be a large movement to partition among the wendat as that would make them an enclave and being mostly french speaker would not have the same historical issues as some other tribes.
point 2 helps to calm down certain fear and can also be used as a bargaining chip to ensure thhat francophones in the rest of canada don't suffer a backlash in term of access to french language services.
point 3 would prevent the liberals complaining about the results of the negociations.
------------
A bigraphy on Jean Chretien quote David Colonette (Minister of Defence at the time) as saying he had considered sending troops to quebec in unmarked vehicles following a yes victory to prevent a takeover of federal assets. If questioned, the offical reason was to prevent vandalism from celebrating sovereignists
------------
Altough they had lost all their MNA at the previous election (meaning 4), The Equality Party under Keith Hendersen trie to remain relevant in the lead up to the referendum by stating that a UDI would be illegal (no matter the circumstances) and that in the event of a YES victory, partition should be enacted. One version envisioned was for the west Island, Eastern Township Northern Quebec and Pontiac but the resolution they sent to many municipalities (some of which passed it) read thusly:
"Resolved: Regardless of the outcome of any referendum on the independence of Quebec conducted by the government of the province of Quebec, the Government of Canada guarantee forthwith the rights of loyal citizens of Canada, where they form the majority in any provincial riding in Quebec, to remain citizens of Canada, territorially part of the Canadian nation and people, one and indivisible."
Getting the succession of Quebec passed into Canada's constitution is going to be a massive pain in the backside, one which Chretien will almost certainly not be able to accomplish for a variety of reasons, first and foremost being politics. In 1995, the Premier of Ontario was Mike Harris (who had been elected earlier in the year. He was a big supporter of Preston Manning and the Ontario conservatives, as well as their counterparts in BC and Alberta, would not be too keen on the idea. I can see Harcourt (BC Premier) being open to easy negotiations, but Harris and Ralph Klein (Alberta Premier) will play hardball, both because of their personal beliefs and a wish to see Chretien (who Klein absolutely hates) crash and burn.
Public opinion in the rest of Canada is gonna be hard to reconcile, too. Meech Lake was roundly disapproved of by a lot of the rest of Canada (the West in particular) and this is gonna be that on steroids. I honestly cannot see an agreement coming out of this that both sides can accept, and however damaging to both sides a UDI would be (with Canada's finances at the time, the end result of that would be a giant drop in the value of the Canadian dollar, for starters) and a very frosty period of relations between the two countries, with those made more troublesome by the likely-governing Reform Party and the social-democratic Parti Quebecois.
Public opinion in the rest of Canada is gonna be hard to reconcile, too. Meech Lake was roundly disapproved of by a lot of the rest of Canada (the West in particular) and this is gonna be that on steroids. I honestly cannot see an agreement coming out of this that both sides can accept, and however damaging to both sides a UDI would be (with Canada's finances at the time, the end result of that would be a giant drop in the value of the Canadian dollar, for starters) and a very frosty period of relations between the two countries, with those made more troublesome by the likely-governing Reform Party and the social-democratic Parti Quebecois.
good point, it would only reinforced stereotypes both sides of the border about what sort of people the others are. "Northern USA" in quebec, "DPR of Quebec" in Canada.
Will we see any updates on the future of SRC (Société Radio-Canada) on this scenario?
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Please have an update containing International reaction. (Mostly from UK, France, and US) Pretty please, with a cherry on top
I know better than to think that IRL and ITTL that wouldn't always be true, but I just don't see a deal that both sides would accept, and making things worse here is that the constitutional approval would be nearly impossible to get. As the Constitution of Canada requires 7 of the 10 provinces with at least 50% of the population to sign off on the deal, which means Ontario must sign off on it, and getting 7 of the 9 existing provinces would almost certainly require BC, Alberta or both. The Reform Party and Conservative provincial governments will not allow a deal to be signed off easily, doubly so if they can land shots on the Chretien Liberals at the same time.
I can see this turning into protracted negotiations which ultimately fail, result in a Quebec UDI and an economic crisis in both nations which ultimately sees Canada politically turn hard to the right for a while, and Ottawa and Quebec City become quite hostile towards each other for the remainder of the 1990s and into the 2000s. Canada's politics soon pretty much devolve into industrial Ontario vs. resource producer Western provinces, with the Atlantic provinces more frequently siding with the West, particularly once oil starts flowing from the Grand Banks. Quebec ultimately sees the Cree territories break away from Quebec and some violence between the SQ and native protesters (think Oka though on a rather bigger scale) which makes problems worse. Both countries have difficult 2000s, though economic improvements in both eventually do make matters start to improve by 2006 or so. But being that Canada's conservative opposition would almost certainly have tossed financial regulation to the wind by 2008, Canada gets walloped by the 2008 financial crisis and as such has real social problems explode between the resource-wealthy west and badly-hammered Ontario by 2010-11, to the point that Ontario politically turns considerably to the left (think NDP provincial government, left-leaning MPs in the 905 and SW Ontario and hard-left city councils) causing more friction between Queens Park and the Western provinces.