POD is CP's won ww1. Now, would they be a ww2, and how would it look like?
The question is if there'll be one. France will be neutered to the point that it will not be a great power ever again, at least not to the point that it can challenge Germany's continental hegemony. So it kind of depends in what shape Russia comes out of the war, which demands certain specifics: namely how and when did the Central Powers win? Was it an early CP victory or a late CP victory?
POD is CP's won ww1. Now, would they be a ww2, and how would it look like?
A somewhat later victory. The US never entry the war.
Well sorry but it's one or the other because if you want the Germans to win before the US entry then the latest opportunity is probably Verdun in 1916.
A lot will depend on what happens next. In a late victory scenario Germany will have imposed the treaty of B-L on Russia and presumably will be pretty harsh on France. Does Germany demand colonies off of France? What happens to Great Britain, presumably the Battle of Jutland has already happened, so the naval status quo continues (this heavily favours Great Britain), so Germany and Great Britain probably negotiate a truce after France surrenders. What state is Austria-Hungary in?
Germany will have to police the eastern territories she tore out of Russia, if memory serves she had to keep a million men there in 1918 due to the generally chaotic nature of the situation. Will she try and digest African colonies as well, prop up the failing state of A-H, deal with potential political instability between the social democrates and the more conservative factions of the germanic ancien regime. So, whilst Germany is distracted by all of these issues it could be possible for the French to re-enact a recovery of sorts.
It is concievable that under the right circumstances a re-invigorated France could overrun Germany.
I think he meant a CP victory as a result of continued US neutrality, not a cause of it.
Which means an even larger divergence from OTL. I really wish the OP would layout a proper scenario for this CP victory rather than a few vague one-liners.
Agreed, to really debate this any further we would need a basic outline of the time and circumstances that led to the CP victory.
Well sorry but it's one or the other because if you want the Germans to win before the US entry then the latest opportunity is probably Verdun in 1916.
A late WWI victory makes a later conflict more likely than an early WWI victory. It's a bit easier to stomach losing a war when you've only lost a two hundred thousand men as opposed to two million men. If France were defeated after four years of fighting, losing so many men and seeing so much of their country laid waste, the seeds of revenge would be planted that would make a future war all but inevitable (just like OTL, except with the positions of Germany and France reversed).
A late WWI victory makes a later conflict more likely than an early WWI victory. It's a bit easier to stomach losing a war when you've only lost a two hundred thousand men as opposed to two million men. If France were defeated after four years of fighting, losing so many men and seeing so much of their country laid waste, the seeds of revenge would be planted that would make a future war all but inevitable (just like OTL, except with the positions of Germany and France reversed).
Basically they had until they started unrestricted submarine warfare again not to screw up; from that point on, assuming the US is neutral, then they will win a favorable peace, even if its not a total victory. No US entry in 1917 means the CPs win, though are bloodied for their efforts. There isn't a Brest-Litovsk, because Russia would exit before they get to the point that the October Revolution happens. France would be the worst off, but Britain would probably get something out of the deal and not be domestically too badly off. Italy would probably end up in civil war at some point as a result of not winning anything. Serbia is done for, Greece is probably going to see some housecleaning as a result of their occupation. The Ottomans struggle on with some territorial losses in Iraq.
The US kept the Entente in the war with their money, manpower, and raw materials (including food) in 1917, otherwise they would be too broke to continue; once one starts getting serious about peace there would a broader deal because the Entente couldn't survive if Russia, France, or Britain decided they couldn't continue.
Why would there be no Brest-Litovsk? The Allies put pressure on Kerensky to continue the war, and he also refused to surrender any territory to the Germans, so I could see Russia continuing the war. The Germans weren't faring much better than the Russians and they continued in the war, despite being near the brink of economic collapse.
That look almost what Ed Thomas written in his alternate history late website "A Shot Heard around the world" when an ealier POD is no entente cordiale between the UK and France. https://web.archive.org/web/20060405133427/http://www.quarryhouse.free-online.co.uk/ed/ASHATW.htm
This is a verse deal of OTL due to the different dynamics of the war; Germany IOTL wasn't destroyed by WW1 due to the war being fought in Russia and France/Belgium (and Austria), which left Germany intact and powerful with her enemies too weak to enforce a harsh peace; Germany on the other hand would be stronger relative to France or Russia here, without having to deal with destruction of her economy and a low foreign debt load, so can enforce a harsh peace, while her enemies wouldn't be able to recover economically like Germany did after WW1 (which was only hampered by the ToV). Here though France won't be able to rebuild due to having a wrecked economic heartland and a worse body count than Germany proportionally speaking, plus would likely lose very valuable economic territory, population, and reparations (not to mention high foreign debt and a depleted capital stock). Russia would be wrecked socially, economically, and have to pay reparations with a high foreign debt load. Britain as I said wouldn't have those issues, but is too weak relative to Germany to do anything without major continental allies. Italy won't be big or stabile enough. By the time France and Russia recover, the CPs will have recovered much more and grown more in the meantime, plus scientifically be ahead of everyone else, especially in the field of nuclear physics, which trumps any military force their enemies could throw together.
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