World War 2 with Central Power Victory in WW1
- Thread starter Historyman 14
- Start date
The question is if there'll be one. France will be neutered to the point that it will not be a great power ever again, at least not to the point that it can challenge Germany's continental hegemony. So it kind of depends in what shape Russia comes out of the war, which demands certain specifics: namely how and when did the Central Powers win? Was it an early CP victory or a late CP victory?
That probably means the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk goes into effect, which makes Finland, the Baltic States, Belarus, Ukraine and Poland satellite states of Germany. Russia falls into a Civil War much like China with Germany probably supporting the Whites (they unleashed the Bolshevik revolution, but as a militaristic conservative monarchy have no interest in seeing it succeed of course). I imagine German intervention in this conflict will be much like Japanese intervention in China, i.e. a never ending quagmire that drains whatever resources Germany gained by conquering Eastern Europe.
That makes WWII a question of 'White warlord Russia'+Britain (+USA perhaps) vs. Germany and European allies. What Italy does depends on who is winning. What Japan and China do depends on who they ally with after TTL's WW I.
That makes WWII a question of 'White warlord Russia'+Britain (+USA perhaps) vs. Germany and European allies. What Italy does depends on who is winning. What Japan and China do depends on who they ally with after TTL's WW I.
Garrison
Donor
Well first question is precisely when did the CP win? A victory in 1914-15 is going to look very different from one in 1918.
Garrison
Donor
Well sorry but it's one or the other because if you want the Germans to win before the US entry then the latest opportunity is probably Verdun in 1916.
I think he meant a CP victory as a result of continued US neutrality, not a cause of it.
A lot will depend on what happens next. In a late victory scenario Germany will have imposed the treaty of B-L on Russia and presumably will be pretty harsh on France. Does Germany demand colonies off of France? What happens to Great Britain, presumably the Battle of Jutland has already happened, so the naval status quo continues (this heavily favours Great Britain), so Germany and Great Britain probably negotiate a truce after France surrenders. What state is Austria-Hungary in?
Germany will have to police the eastern territories she tore out of Russia, if memory serves she had to keep a million men there in 1918 due to the generally chaotic nature of the situation. Will she try and digest African colonies as well, prop up the failing state of A-H, deal with potential political instability between the social democrates and the more conservative factions of the germanic ancien regime. So, whilst Germany is distracted by all of these issues it could be possible for the French to re-enact a recovery of sorts.
It is concievable that under the right circumstances a re-invigorated France could overrun Germany.
Germany will have to police the eastern territories she tore out of Russia, if memory serves she had to keep a million men there in 1918 due to the generally chaotic nature of the situation. Will she try and digest African colonies as well, prop up the failing state of A-H, deal with potential political instability between the social democrates and the more conservative factions of the germanic ancien regime. So, whilst Germany is distracted by all of these issues it could be possible for the French to re-enact a recovery of sorts.
It is concievable that under the right circumstances a re-invigorated France could overrun Germany.
Germany might what some of France Colonies. AH might live to the 30's.
Garrison
Donor
Which means an even larger divergence from OTL. I really wish the OP would layout a proper scenario for this CP victory rather than a few vague one-liners.
Agreed, to really debate this any further we would need a basic outline of the time and circumstances that led to the CP victory.
Hmm, a more bloody Verdun for the Allies, US, and Romaine does not join the war. Italy either joins the CP or does not join the war. Ottomans more successful in the war. More Mutiny in the French ranks.
Deleted member 1487
Basically they had until they started unrestricted submarine warfare again not to screw up; from that point on, assuming the US is neutral, then they will win a favorable peace, even if its not a total victory. No US entry in 1917 means the CPs win, though are bloodied for their efforts. There isn't a Brest-Litovsk, because Russia would exit before they get to the point that the October Revolution happens. France would be the worst off, but Britain would probably get something out of the deal and not be domestically too badly off. Italy would probably end up in civil war at some point as a result of not winning anything. Serbia is done for, Greece is probably going to see some housecleaning as a result of their occupation. The Ottomans struggle on with some territorial losses in Iraq.
The US kept the Entente in the war with their money, manpower, and raw materials (including food) in 1917, otherwise they would be too broke to continue; once one starts getting serious about peace there would a broader deal because the Entente couldn't survive if Russia, France, or Britain decided they couldn't continue.
Anaxagoras
Banned
A late WWI victory makes a later conflict more likely than an early WWI victory. It's a bit easier to stomach losing a war when you've only lost a two hundred thousand men as opposed to two million men. If France were defeated after four years of fighting, losing so many men and seeing so much of their country laid waste, the seeds of revenge would be planted that would make a future war all but inevitable (just like OTL, except with the positions of Germany and France reversed).
That look almost what Ed Thomas written in his alternate history late website "A Shot Heard around the world" when an ealier POD is no entente cordiale between the UK and France. https://web.archive.org/web/20060405133427/http://www.quarryhouse.free-online.co.uk/ed/ASHATW.htm
Deleted member 1487
I disagree on that. I think an early victory would leave the loser with more strength and less financial loss due to a limited reparations deal to actually come back for revenge. A long war with major losses with a heavy peace is more likely to leave a nation like France crippled and unable to strike back; Russia without the Soviets would have been a basket case for years. Britain would be the only nation capable of starting a war in a late peace scenario on the Entente side, but would not be able to do much without France or Russia.
This is a verse deal of OTL due to the different dynamics of the war; Germany IOTL wasn't destroyed by WW1 due to the war being fought in Russia and France/Belgium (and Austria), which left Germany intact and powerful with her enemies too weak to enforce a harsh peace; Germany on the other hand would be stronger relative to France or Russia here, without having to deal with destruction of her economy and a low foreign debt load, so can enforce a harsh peace, while her enemies wouldn't be able to recover economically like Germany did after WW1 (which was only hampered by the ToV). Here though France won't be able to rebuild due to having a wrecked economic heartland and a worse body count than Germany proportionally speaking, plus would likely lose very valuable economic territory, population, and reparations (not to mention high foreign debt and a depleted capital stock). Russia would be wrecked socially, economically, and have to pay reparations with a high foreign debt load. Britain as I said wouldn't have those issues, but is too weak relative to Germany to do anything without major continental allies. Italy won't be big or stabile enough. By the time France and Russia recover, the CPs will have recovered much more and grown more in the meantime, plus scientifically be ahead of everyone else, especially in the field of nuclear physics, which trumps any military force their enemies could throw together.
Germany though would have some issues, due to A-H likely having a civil war at some point, the Bulgarians not wanting another round of fighting, and the Ottomans too scared for another war. Germany would likely be alone or with an even weaker ally that would probably end up getting split up and partially annexed. Still, Germany would likely have some minor allies and a vibrant economy that the US isn't going to tolerate being excluded from international trade again in case of war. France is going to be too weak to risk another war and Russia is going to be lucky not to end up in a hugely destructive civil war.
Why would there be no Brest-Litovsk? The Allies put pressure on Kerensky to continue the war, and he also refused to surrender any territory to the Germans, so I could see Russia continuing the war. The Germans weren't faring much better than the Russians and they continued in the war, despite being near the brink of economic collapse. In fact you could say that everyone at that point was at the brink of economic collapse.
So Even with the US neutral, I could see the Allies adamant to continue the war, until they fold.
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Deleted member 1487
Without American loans the Russians wouldn't have been able to afford to stay in the war; with a peace in 1917 there is no October Revolution, so no Brest-Litovsk. There probably isn't a Kerenksy offensive either, as the Entente couldn't continue to finance the war without the unlimited loans that were offered starting in April 1917 when the US entered the war. So if France and Britain cannot afford to keep fighting, Russia certainly cannot, so there would be a negotiated deal in the works prior to the Kerensky offensive, which would preclude any offensive action by Russia. Russia would lose some territory (Poland, Lithuania at a minimum) regardless of Kerensky's bluster due to not being able to afford to continue fighting.
I can only seem to get the first two sections to work, anyone else having this problem? Is it available elsewhere?
Riain
Banned
This is the basic crux of the matter, IOTL despite stripping Germany of territory and wealth she was still the second most powerful country in the world, with France a long, long way behind even after her gains and reparations. A 1917 or so victory will leave Germany vastly more powerful than every other country in Europe, with more territory, population and industry than every country outside the USA.
Perhaps the Soviets will still forcibly modernise Russia to make it a rival for Germany after 20 years, like OTL, but France won't have a prayer and Britain will be only a containing power rather than a real rival. However I could see a western defence union with Britain, France and perhaps Italy working very closely together, so much so that their trade and economic patters are interwoven for strategic reasons.