Malê Rising

[Jonathan Edelstein]

The map is amazing and the notes even more so - thanks again!

My only correction, aside from those discussed below, is that both Gobir and Dahomey are numbered 11 for Africa. Maybe the boojum could give back number 49 for one of them? BTW, the Gobir city-states are now British protectorates; their formal name is the Gobir Agency, although no one outside Whitehall uses it.

EDIT: Also, Formosa should be Japanese.

Actually looking at that map I have one question, what is the situation of the Mayan in ITTL? This seems like the perfect timeline for screwy weird counries like the Tran Santa Cruz Republic to prosper.

You know, I'd never heard of Chan Santa Cruz until now - I had a vague impression that the Caste War ended in 1849-50, and didn't realize that the Maya hung on in a few areas until the end of the century. Thanks for the history lesson, and for helping to fill in another part of the world!

Anyway, if Wikipedia is anything to go by (and if it isn't, please tell me), the Maya had unofficial British backing until 1893, at which time they lost that support because they executed British citizens. That would seem fairly easy to butterfly, and in TTL, Britain was... otherwise occupied by 1893. On the other hand, the conflict between the Mayans and the Yucatecan creoles, which was the context in which the massacre occurred, would still be there and could lead to Mexican intervention on one side or the other.

I'll flip a coin and say that as of 1898, Chan Santa Cruz is still there, that it's legally Mexican but de facto independent, and that the Mexican government doesn't care enough to force the issue right now, especially since TTL Britain still has an unofficial treaty with the Maya. However, both the Mexicans and the British are trying to broker an end to the Maya-creole conflict, which will likely see both being brought more firmly into the Mexican orbit (albeit still autonomous).

I can't remember how Britain got control of Nyasaland ITTL. Was it the work of David Livingstone and suchlike?

Pretty much. The British picked it up because (a) the highlands are suitable for cash crop agriculture; and (b) it was a step along the planned Zanzibar-to-Cape Town railroad (which is still being built, BTW; Britain secured an easement across Portuguese territory in exchange for giving up its claims).

I don't recall Japan being given Kamchatka, nor Lithuania and Latvia being made independent - the peace conference post explicitly stated Baltic ports being allowed into the Zollverein(sic), Hansa-style.

You're correct about the Baltic ports; however, Japan did get Kamchatka (it took the port of Petropavlovsk during the war and was able to keep it). I'm pretty sure I mentioned that in connection with the peace conference.

Why is South Australia being given the UCS Australian Territory colour? And shouldn't Fiji be in this colour as well? Actually, given that it's more of a loose-confederation thing, wouldn't just having it being outlined with the Australia colour be better?

South Australia and Fiji are both states, although Fiji has parallel governments for the indigenous Fijians and the whites (as it did for quite a while in OTL).

Actually, I'm not too sure of the internal borders given for Germany. Johnathan did say (or imply, anyway) that, although Hanover was seperate, Prussia still annexed Hesse-Kassel and Nassau in whatever passed for the Seven-Weeks' War*.

This is correct.

Shouldn't Georgia and Armenia be given colours to indicate Ottoman influence? And why is Laos seperate , wasn't it returned to Siam during the Washington Conference? And Bhutan should be given the British Protectorate colour, not Nepal, as the latter was never really under de jure British domination (though that could be different ITTL).

Correct about Georgia/Armenia, Bhutan and Nepal. Laos became independent because, although Siam switched in time from a French client state to a British one, it didn't earn any favors in Britain's eyes, and the British wanted a buffer between Indochina on the one hand and Siam and China on the other. Siam still has a claim, though.

Also, you're right on both counts about the Ionian Islands and Grão Pará, although I think the latter's status is reflected on the map.

Actually, what status does the Sudetenland(sic) even have in Germany, anyway?

It was annexed to Prussia as a sop to the remnant Prussian nationalists - it has the status of a Prussian province, or maybe two of them.

Question to Jonathon now - what sort of political structure does Australiasia have? Is it essentially the same as OTL Australia except with a few new states? Where would the capital be?

It's a looser federation than OTL, largely at the insistence of the New Zealanders. The states control citizenship and immigration (meaning that the Maori are citizens while Aborigines, for the most part, aren't) and also have police power. NZ and Fiji can run their internal affairs more or less their own way. There is an American-style senate/house of states which is more powerful than OTL's Australian senate - essentially coequal to the House of Commons (as the House of Representatives is called in TTL).

Melbourne is the capital, and Canberra will not be built.

Actually, the kings of Spain has had since the late 1400s, early 1500s the faculty to advice the Pope on whom to appoint as bishops for the Spanish bishoprics, which if the monarchs used in a more liberal manner, could mean they could appoint the bishops themselves regardless of the Pope's own beliefs.

Thanks, I was hoping you'd comment on the Spanish situation.

Was this power still used in the 19th century, or had it fallen into disuse? If the latter, then it might not be illegal for the government to appoint bishops, but it would certainly be a breach of custom and might be politically explosive. Still, as long as it was never formally abolished, I expect that the Spanish crown is getting increasingly blunt with the Pope - "appoint better bishops or we'll start doing it ourselves."

Of course such a reactionary Pope will be a tremendous problem for the development of the political Catholicism based on OTL's Rerum Novarum of the likes of Eduardo Dato and will only make the opponents of the monarchy, which would support the Church financially (even with a more liberal, 1869 style constitution) bolder and particularly the republicans. I suppose Barcelona's constant (pre-)revolutionary situation (depending on the day and the mood of employers and employees) will only worsen.

Yes, there's nothing worse for the development of political Catholicism than having the boss right there and willing to meddle. There are major conflicts now between the Catholic right and center-left, and the Pope is putting a heavy thumb on the scale in favor of the former, which means that the Catholic liberals in Spain often have to buck their local church institutions. Of course, the Pope's presence also gives the Catholic right less freedom of action, because they can't take positions vis-a-vis the monarchy or party politics that are different from his.

The republicans are getting emboldened by this situation, and are demanding that the government take steps to rein in the church. They're taking on an increasingly anti-clerical and socialist/anarchist cast. And in Barcelona, the right-wing Legion veterans, the anarchists (a few of whom are ex-Legionnaires themselves) and the Catalan nationalists are in a three-cornered brawl, with the bourgeois parties trying to contain it all.

 

[eliphas8]

You know, I'd never heard of Chan Santa Cruz until now - I had a vague impression that the Caste War ended in 1849-50, and didn't realize that the Maya hung on in a few areas until the end of the century. Thanks for the history lesson, and for helping to fill in another part of the world!

Anyway, if Wikipedia is anything to go by (and if it isn't, please tell me), the Maya had unofficial British backing until 1893, at which time they lost that support because they executed British citizens. That would seem fairly easy to butterfly, and in TTL, Britain was... otherwise occupied by 1893. On the other hand, the conflict between the Mayans and the Yucatecan creoles, which was the context in which the massacre occurred, would still be there and could lead to Mexican intervention on one side or the other.

I'll flip a coin and say that as of 1898, Chan Santa Cruz is still there, that it's legally Mexican but de facto independent, and that the Mexican government doesn't care enough to force the issue right now, especially since TTL Britain still has an unofficial treaty with the Maya. However, both the Mexicans and the British are trying to broker an end to the Maya-creole conflict, which will likely see both being brought more firmly into the Mexican orbit (albeit still autonomous).

Aweseome! I had an impact! Although it should be mentioned while I think Chan Santa Cruz was cool I don't know enough about it to comment, if you ever feel like actually posting anything in the timeline about it talk to 9 Fanged Hummingbird about it, he's the expert.

 

[Admiral Matt]

Swimmingly has two M's.

But seriously, that's amazing.

 

[B_Munro]

The map is amazing and the notes even more so - thanks again!


You're correct about the Baltic ports; .

Thanks! I'll put up an edited version shortly: so the Baltic states have their ports in the German Zollverein, but they're still part of Russia? Do they have any autonomy within Russia?

Bruce

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Thanks! I'll put up an edited version shortly: so the Baltic states have their ports in the German Zollverein, but they're still part of Russia? Do they have any autonomy within Russia?

They're Russian provinces like any other, but Russia is a pretty decentralized setup in general these days.

 

[Nanwe]

Thanks, I was hoping you'd comment on the Spanish situation.

Was this power still used in the 19th century, or had it fallen into disuse? If the latter, then it might not be illegal for the government to appoint bishops, but it would certainly be a breach of custom and might be politically explosive. Still, as long as it was never formally abolished, I expect that the Spanish crown is getting increasingly blunt with the Pope - "appoint better bishops or we'll start doing it ourselves."

I'm not sure, but AFAIK Franco still had the privilege in the 1970s. But a more liberal Spain would mean a less clerical Spain with a less powerful Church. Perhaps it wouldnt be as explosive as if it were like the Spain from the Restauración.

Yes, there's nothing worse for the development of political Catholicism than having the boss right there and willing to meddle. There are major conflicts now between the Catholic right and center-left, and the Pope is putting a heavy thumb on the scale in favor of the former, which means that the Catholic liberals in Spain often have to buck their local church institutions. Of course, the Pope's presence also gives the Catholic right less freedom of action, because they can't take positions vis-a-vis the monarchy or party politics that are different from his.

Umm, the Catholics would not be left, the social Catholics were defenders of a welfare state but they were firmly on the centre-right, not really in the left, especially as the left was usually either secular or anticlerical. Of course, the traditional liberal-conservative right would be Catholic but they were never strongly identified by their Catholicism, but rather for the defence of free trade, limited suffrage and royal power.

And I suppose Catholic liberals will become increasingly anti-ultramontane, demanding the expulsion of jesuits, secular education and a crack down on the number of religious orders and perhaps even asking the Pope to relocate.

[Jonathan Edelstein;8073073]The republicans are getting emboldened by this situation, and are demanding that the government take steps to rein in the church. They're taking on an increasingly anti-clerical and socialist/anarchist cast. And in Barcelona, the right-wing Legion veterans, the anarchists (a few of whom are ex-Legionnaires themselves) and the Catalan nationalists are in a three-cornered brawl, with the bourgeois parties trying to contain it all.[/QUOTE]

Actually the Catalanists would most likely be bourgeois too, although weaker than OTL. However a conflict is easy yes, the Legionnares, employed by the Catalan industrialists, similar to how they used the Sindicato Libre and the somaten OTL could battle the anarchist and socialist workers. In fact the Great War would be a great motivation for the anarchists as a time to rise against the state at a time states are so weak.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

1898, Part 1.75

Tokyo, November 1898

“Thank you, Major,” said Deputy Aichi. “Now, if you will forgive me, I have another question for you – it may be outside your expertise, but I hope you will answer.”

Major Kishida looked back at the deputy, who did not seem in the least like someone who wanted to be forgiven. The grilling he’d already given Kishida about the Korean campaign was already well beyond what would have been considered an affront before the war; it wasn’t the custom for the Diet to debate military matters or to summon army officers as witnesses. But these days, certain factions were trying to discredit the army anywhere they could, and the Diet was as good as place as any. And Aichi – a retired naval officer who had married into a shipping family – was in the pocket of the navy, and of the party that favored commercial expansion overseas rather than military expansion on the mainland.

“It would be my pleasure, honorable deputy,” he answered.

“Very well, then. You have spoken very ably about the military conduct of the war. Do you have any thoughts about its political conduct? Were there ways that the Koreans might have been reconciled to our rule?”

Kishida swallowed. The question went far beyond the hearing on the military budget which this ostensibly was. And he remembered what his commander had said to him just a week past, when he’d been promoted to major. The promotion had been a very unsubtle bribe to shade his testimony in the army’s favor, and with that bribe had come an implicit threat. The answer he was about to give would certainly end his career, and if he were unlucky, it might get him cashiered or even thrown in jail for a year. But he didn’t care – the generals had failed their emperor and nation, they’d failed the soldiers, and he owed them nothing but honesty.

“Yes, Aichi-sama, I believe there was. When we first landed, and we confiscated the estates of the gentry who fought us, the peasants of those estates gave us their support. A few of them even joined our army – I had one under my command. But once we chose the gentry as our allies and started taking land back from the peasants, all that was lost. After that, they fought with the Righteous Army, not with ours.”

“Then you believe we should have chosen the peasants instead?”

“At the very least, we shouldn’t have underestimated them. We’d fought peasants in China for ten years already, and we knew how much trouble they could be, but we were still told the Korean peasants were weak and wouldn’t fight. Anyone who’d been on the ground in Jiangsu or Shandong could have told them differently.”

“I see.” Aichi looked distinctly like a cat that had caught its prey, and was oblivious to the angry shouts from the deputies who favored the army. “I thank you, Major, for your enlightening testimony. You may go now.”

Kishida stepped down and made his way out of the Diet building into the Hibiya streets. A market had grown up in this neighborhood, stretching all the way to the railroad tracks, and at this hour the streets were alive with people browsing among the stalls. A person might buy books here, or groceries or cookware, or he might choose from the lantern-bearing stalls that sold fish and sake.

The merchants weren’t the only ones who sought to take advantage of the crowd’s generosity. A line of wounded soldiers crouched by the gutter, hands held out for change, hopelessness written on their faces. Yes, the generals failed them, and now the nation is betraying them.

With a shock, Kishida recognized one of them as a private from his own company, a soldier who’d fought bravely in the Korean mountains. “Kira-san?” he asked.

The private looked up with glassy eyes – he’d lost one leg and part of the other, and he was badly scarred – and then blinked, as if he’d suddenly realized that he still lived in the world. “Captain?”

“Yes, it’s me. What happened to your family?”

“They threw me out. I was disgraced. I was a soldier and I’d failed in the war.”

Kishida had heard of such things – at times, he himself had been treated like an object of shame – but to see Kira like this brought home the defeat in a way that Aichi’s questioning could not have. He reached into his pocket and gave the private ten yen. “I’m sorry, Kira. This is all I can afford. But if I can do something else for you, I will.”

He stood up, embarrassed by the soldier’s thanks, casting about for anything else that might catch his attention. A cry of samobaru! reached his ears at that moment, and he followed the sound to a nearby stall. Samobaru – the word for all things Russian, after the samovar kettles that had become much prized.

That was another thing Kishida couldn’t understand. The peace terms had required Japan to grant citizenship to the Russians in the new territories who wanted to stay, and many of them had; a hundred thousand and more had given their allegiance to the emperor. That opened a can of worms about what to do with the Formosans, but it had also, unaccountably, swept the Japanese public with a fascination out of all proportion to the new citizens’ numbers. Anything to do with the late enemy was the rage, and it showed in the things the stall was selling: bottles of vodka, placards with Buddhist sayings written in kiriji characters, Japanese-style prints of Russian cities and landscapes.

He was drawn to the stall in spite of himself, and a collection of nesting dolls caught his eye: most were in traditional Russian patterns, but one was painted to appear like a Japanese bureaucrat. Curious, he opened it to see what might be inside: the next one was a naval officer, then a member of the Diet, then a courtier, and finally the emperor himself. He’d heard people say lately that Japan had a matoryōshika government, and suddenly he realized what they meant: layers of authority, one within the other, which formed the framework for the factions’ and politicians’ struggle.

He laughed – it wasn’t that funny, but he was looking for a reason to laugh after having seen Kira. “I’ll take this one,” he said, and paid for it as the samobaru merchant wrapped it up. It would amuse his wife too; she was more politically minded than most women, and could talk about such things endlessly.

He wondered what she’d make for dinner, and then realized he’d never had lunch. There was a yakitori stall across the way; he exchanged greetings with the owner and ordered a skewer of grilled chicken and a bottle of beer. There were many others at the stall, which was obviously a well-regarded one, and the owner was struggling to keep up. Kishida settled down to wait.

A newspaper was hanging from the eaves of the stall, and the major read as he waited; there’d been a brawl between soldiers and sailors in Yokohama which had taken hours for the police to break up. This is getting out of hand, he thought. There were rumors that the army would stage a coup, or that the navy would, or that some party or other was getting together a private force; thus far the rumors had been just that, but the tensions between the services and factions was getting worse. He’d heard that the emperor himself might step in to mediate, and he hoped that rumor was true; that the emperor rarely became involved in matters of state made it all the more potent when he did.

He realized that his food was now in front of him, and he answered the owner’s quick bow with one of his own. Something about the owner’s bearing told him that the man had been a soldier, and all at once a wild notion came to him.

“Please, sir,” he said, “it looks like you need help here?”

The owner gave him a startled look, but then he nodded sharply. “Yes, my son has joined a merchant crew, and I’m by myself. Why, are you a cook?”

“No, not me. But one of my soldiers over there – he lost his legs in the war, but he has two good arms and he can help with the cooking and cleaning. You won’t need to pay him much money. And I can see you were a soldier yourself – I promise, if you hire him, other soldiers will be grateful. I’ll tell them myself and make sure they come here.”

The yakitori-seller looked thoughtful, and Kishida was sure he’d gone too far, but then he barked a laugh. “One soldier to another, yes. Go find him and tell him to come here. I can’t pay him much, but if he can work, he can have a place.”

“Thank you, sir,” the major said, and as he stood, he bowed as deeply as he might have done to the emperor.

I found Kira a job, he thought as he made his way down the street. Can I find work for the other veterans too? He knew that his testimony in front of the Diet had cost him his career; maybe it was time to find a new one.

The Yasukuni shrine was on his way home. He would stop there and ask.

 

[Roberto]

Too cool of an update. Meiji-Era Japan is fascinating in OTL, but this ATL Japan with a less wankedly meteoric rise to Great Power-dom opens up an array of interesting possibilities. What relations, if any, do the Japanese have with the Santri and semi-independent Rajahs of the East Indies?

Also, I'm interested in what's going on in China. I had a thought after the update about the French Civil War, that if the Catholic Legion gets disbanded in Europe, they may serve as useful mercenaries for an Occidentally-minded warlord in the Far East who strategically converts and declares religious war on the Qing government.

 

[B_Munro]

OK: I am putting up a corrected version of the map now.

Bruce

 

[Plumber]

That provision in the peace treaty may be the first step towards a multiethnic Japan.

I'm kind of surprised no one has mentioned the expanded Zollverein as the precursor of an earlier EU.

 

[Roberto]

Another thought just occurred to me; if Spain starts getting fed up with the Pope's bullshit and the comes to blows with the Legion, they could do some serious damage in the Phillipines, an archipelago so devout that even in modern times (in OTL), divorce is still illegal. Agitating for independence as a theocracy, maybe? I wonder what sort of damage the Legion could do in Cuba and Puerto Rico.

 

[Badshah]

Nice to see Matriushka getting popular in Japan. They're pretty awesome; I used to have a set, though I'm not sure where it is now.

So I guess this is a look at the horrors of the war...soldiers begging on the street. Men like Kishida will no doubt be pressing for some sort of compensation or at least recognition.

 

[Falecius]

Men like Kishida will no doubt be pressing for some sort of compensation or at least recognition.

Which, from OTL, we know capable of leading to every sort of ugly.

 

[Badshah]

Which, from OTL, we know capable of leading to every sort of ugly.

Ont he other side of the coin, however, is the possibility for good. And if Kishida is at the forefront, I certainly wouldn't mind, looking at his points of view.

Plus at the end of the day, I think this TL really has a sense of optimism that pervades the entire thing. There's hope throughout, so I do think it will be good change.

 

[othyrsyde]

This TL is beautiful, and never ceases to amaze and inspire me in my own works! (In the post-ACW period)

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

First, thanks for the corrected map; it's even more amazing now.

Umm, the Catholics would not be left, the social Catholics were defenders of a welfare state but they were firmly on the centre-right, not really in the left, especially as the left was usually either secular or anticlerical. Of course, the traditional liberal-conservative right would be Catholic but they were never strongly identified by their Catholicism, but rather for the defence of free trade, limited suffrage and royal power.

Fair enough and thanks for the correction. I'm thinking that with religious influence more prominent in TTL's socialist movements, "the left" might not be thought of the same way, and there might be some distinction between the economic left and the social left. The social Catholics would be part of the former, but not the latter.

And I suppose Catholic liberals will become increasingly anti-ultramontane, demanding the expulsion of jesuits, secular education and a crack down on the number of religious orders and perhaps even asking the Pope to relocate.

Very likely, especially since the Spanish government is itself coming to the conclusion that the Pope has worn out his welcome.

Actually the Catalanists would most likely be bourgeois too, although weaker than OTL. However a conflict is easy yes, the Legionnares, employed by the Catalan industrialists, similar to how they used the Sindicato Libre and the somaten OTL could battle the anarchist and socialist workers. In fact the Great War would be a great motivation for the anarchists as a time to rise against the state at a time states are so weak.

That sounds about right, and the presence of a (temporarily) anarchist-controlled territory in Friuli might also be a catalyst. I think the anarchist and socialist trade unions would be very active in Catalonia now, and some Legionnaires could easily be recruited to fight them on the industrialists' behalf. Of course those Legionnaires who are social Catholics wouldn't want to fight for the capitalists, but they would still have their own issues with the left - maybe they would fight against both.

Too cool of an update. Meiji-Era Japan is fascinating in OTL, but this ATL Japan with a less wankedly meteoric rise to Great Power-dom opens up an array of interesting possibilities.

This Japan will be less susceptible to victory disease than ours, but will also run into problems that didn't happen in OTL.

What relations, if any, do the Japanese have with the Santri and semi-independent Rajahs of the East Indies

The Japanese don't have much of any presence in the East Indies - the Dutch and Hadhramis have the commercial networks sewn up, and there isn't really any pan-Asian ideology (yet) to give Japan and the Indies common cause.

Some of your questions about China will be addressed in the next "academic" update.

That provision in the peace treaty may be the first step towards a multiethnic Japan.

A very small step. 100,000 Russians, almost all of whom are in the far northern prefectures (and who will face heavy pressure to assimilate if they move to the home islands) are a drop in the bucket. The big deal, as Kishida said, is Formosa, which did eventually get Japanese citizenship in OTL but not until very late in the game. What happens there will be more of a model than Sakhalin or Kamchatka.

Another thought just occurred to me; if Spain starts getting fed up with the Pope's bullshit and the comes to blows with the Legion, they could do some serious damage in the Phillipines, an archipelago so devout that even in modern times (in OTL), divorce is still illegal. Agitating for independence as a theocracy, maybe? I wonder what sort of damage the Legion could do in Cuba and Puerto Rico.

I've thought about the Philippines on occasion but haven't come to any certain conclusion. My tentative assumption has been that the liberal Spanish government made it a self-governing dominion, or even a kingdom under the Spanish crown, but that there's a lot of conflict between the feudal families, the liberals and the Church, and that the bureaucracy and church hierarchy are still intertwined. Some Filipinos almost certainly fought in the Legion, BTW, and they'd get into the same trouble coming home as their Spanish counterparts.

I'm not sure about Cuba and Puerto Rico - both are self-governing provinces, and I think they'd be liberal at this time (both had liberal revolutionary movements in OTL), but if there's any good reason for them not to be, I'm willing to listen.

Nice to see Matriushka getting popular in Japan. They're pretty awesome; I used to have a set, though I'm not sure where it is now.

My wife has collected them since she was a child; I'm looking at about a dozen sets right now.

Any more suggestions for Japanese-Russian cultural fusion? (Bear in mind that it will be at a relatively superficial level, somewhat like how Japan treats Western culture in OTL. In time there will be Western, and maybe even African, cultural fusion too.)

So I guess this is a look at the horrors of the war...soldiers begging on the street. Men like Kishida will no doubt be pressing for some sort of compensation or at least recognition.

Which, from OTL, we know capable of leading to every sort of ugly.

That's the flip side of anti-militarism - the Diet may not fund any more foreign adventures, but it also isn't in the mood to fund soldiers' pensions or military hospitals, and some of the soldiers' families and neighbors think of them as the ones who failed the country in war.

Right now, Kishida is mainly interested in finding jobs and housing for disabled veterans - mass politics isn't really a Japanese thing just yet, so his concentration will be on social services. In the immediate term, a coup is a more imminent threat than a veterans' revolt. What Kishida starts could grow into a political movement in time, though, and it could have both ugly and positive consequences.

BTW, Kishida has appeared here before - he was the commander of the Japanese company that got ambushed in Korea.

This TL is beautiful, and never ceases to amaze and inspire me in my own works! (In the post-ACW period)

Thanks!

The next update really will be the planned part 2 of the 1898 narrative, followed by the "academic" one on the postwar political shakeout.

 

[St. Just]

More Japanese Orthodoxy for one.

 

[Admiral Matt]

Wait. Fought in China for ten years? As in they went in during the 1880s? I had thought the Sino-Japanese War kicked off only a little early, once the Great War gave the Japanese a free hand. Remembering wrong?

 

[Dragos Cel Mare]

I've thought about the Philippines on occasion but haven't come to any certain conclusion. My tentative assumption has been that the liberal Spanish government made it a self-governing dominion, or even a kingdom under the Spanish crown, but that there's a lot of conflict between the feudal families, the liberals and the Church, and that the bureaucracy and church hierarchy are still intertwined. Some Filipinos almost certainly fought in the Legion, BTW, and they'd get into the same trouble coming home as their Spanish counterparts.

IOTL, Native Priests were part of liberal movements both before and during the Philippine Revolution, with one of the earliest stirrings of nationalism being the 'Secularization Movement', a campaign to replace the religious orders with Native Priests. In fact, the religious orders and other foreign Catholics were hated during the Spanish times, and this hatred was one of the prime causes of the Philippine Revolution. Roberto is right in that the islands were (and are) devout, but that doesn't mean that they would go theocratic anytime soon.

In fact, some of the first 'martyrs' of Philippine Nationalism were native priests (see Gomburza), and their deaths stoked resentment against the presence of the religious orders and Spanish Catholics in general. Not merely that, but said religious orders were also hated for holding the best lands, and appropriating the property of Filipino farmers and Native Priests. By this time OTL, many Filipinos already believe that they can be good Christians and yet strive for the dispossession of the friars.

So, not to attack Roberto, but any attempt by the Papal Legion to turn the Philippines into a theocracy would be resisted by armed force. And, quite frankly, I'm miffed by him presenting the natives as blind dupes that do what Foreign Catholics say even though, OTL, there was a bloody revolt against the Spanish government by people opposed to the friars' power and their collusion with the establishment.

Yes, the Catholic Church has immense power and influence today, OTL. But that's because the Native Priests finally had their demands for primacy within the isles answered. Unless the Spanish Government in the 19th Century liberalized enough to answer those demands, or the Papacy itself was prepared to make concessions to them, then no, the Philippines will not be a fertile ground for Papal Legion designs.

For more information, look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Revolution

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

More Japanese Orthodoxy for one.

It's going to be superficial cultural fusion - the Japanese will have a passion for Russian things (for a while), but aren't about to change their religion any more than their OTL fascination with Western culture has led them to become Catholics or Protestants. The Russian Orthodox church in Japan will probably have more than the 30,000 or so adherents that it has in OTL (the ethnic Russians alone will account for several times that) but it will still be a fraction of one percent of the population. Maybe the Japanese will pick up some Orthodox symbolism, though - carrying candles at some ceremonies, for instance, or using "icons" in odd places.

The Koreans, on the other hand, will flock to Orthodoxy in droves, and as has been mentioned, TTL's *Cheondoism will have a very Orthodox flavor.

Wait. Fought in China for ten years? As in they went in during the 1880s? I had thought the Sino-Japanese War kicked off only a little early, once the Great War gave the Japanese a free hand. Remembering wrong?

No, I remembered wrong. I don't think I ever gave a date for the start of TTL's Sino-Japanese war, but from the context of earlier discussions, it seems that they took Formosa in the early 1890s, which probably means that the war got started in 1891 or at earliest 1890. So consider the update edited to say "six years" instead of ten.

IOTL, Native Priests were part of liberal movements both before and during the Philippine Revolution, with one of the earliest stirrings of nationalism being the 'Secularization Movement', a campaign to replace the religious orders with Native Priests. In fact, the religious orders and other foreign Catholics were hated during the Spanish times, and this hatred was one of the prime causes of the Philippine Revolution. Roberto is right in that the islands were (and are) devout, but that doesn't mean that they would go theocratic anytime soon.

Fair point. I'd remembered that the friars were very powerful and could often secure the removal of liberal governors, but forgotten that so many of the early nationalists were priests themselves and that the divide between Filipino and peninsulare clergy was so sharp.

I wonder if, in this environment, the returning Filipino Legionnaires might be among the most ardent nationalists. Let's say that the Philippines are, as I mentioned earlier, a self-governing dominion or even a nominal kingdom with their own legislature. They'd be able to pass some measures to restrict the friars' power, but the kind of institutional power the friars have is very hard to shift. They would be able to undermine the elected government through their influence in the bureaucracy as well as through their connections in Madrid, which would still have the right to veto Filipino legislation. The Spanish government would have its heart in the right place, but the Philippines are far away and a low priority, and if the friars are closest to the government's ear, they might get their way much of the time. Over time, the promise of dominion/kingdom status might fade somewhat as the feudal families, in alliance with the friars, get control of the government and repress popular participation - there would be a government of Filipinos, to be sure, but elite Filipinos only.

Enter the ex-Legionnaires. They're coming from an army in which all Catholic soldiers were brothers - there was no discrimination between Spaniard and Filipino in the Legion, no sir! They would revere their Filipino parish priests, and would oppose the cozy arrangement that has developed between the great landowners and the friars. Maybe they would argue that dominion status is not enough, and that only through full independence could the Filipinos take control of the state and church. Maybe this could be the root of a revolution - and by now, the Pope is a distant European figure who abandoned them after a losing war, so many of them would follow their parish priests even if the Pope condemns the revolt.

So, not a theocracy, and very much opposed to the friars, but still a very Catholic Philippines, so there might be conflict later on Mindanao or maybe even a breakup of the islands.

Anyway, I'm far from an expert on Filipino history, as you can see, so I'd welcome any help in fleshing this out, or if the above is totally implausible, please let me know.