Interesting as always. My one thought is whether the Franks would be as weak as you portray them; OTL they were consistently one of the great powers, no?
The Franks definitely were a powerhouse in OTL and, to an extent, in this ATL as well. The Franks turn of luck in the ATL comes in Clovis' invasion of Aquitaine. In OTL he was able to drive the Visigoths out of the territory, and bring Frankish domination over all of Gaul. In the ATL, the main battle goes different, and Clovis shuffles loose the mortal coil, as it were.
This accomplishes two things. First, it denies the Franks control of Southern Gaul and, second, is breaks the Frankish territory into several parts, as Clovis' children all get their share of the realm. Notice, however, that the Franks are still powerful enough to invade Acquitaine a second time, several years later, and, although they still lose, they do so much less extravagently than in the first attempt (in fact, its the Visigoths that lose a King in this conflict). They are still strong enough to meddle in the affairs of Burgundy shortly thereafter.
When the final confrontation happens, there are several factors that work against the Franks. First of all, they are divided, as one of Clovis' children opts for neutrality in the conflict (partially out of disgust at his brothers' actions, and partially out of a belief that discretion may be the better part of valour, all of a sudden), which means that Theudemir is only going against two-thirds of the Franks strength. Secondly, the Goths have all been united under a single ruler and, although not a unified state yet, are able to bring the full weight of their strength down to bear in a coordinated effort. Finally, and I think this is actually the biggest thing, is that the Gothic-Frank conflict had now progressed past the point of being a mere political conflict to one of a blood fued. Theudemir has, by this point, lost his nephew and his eldest son to the Merovings and is in the mood to wipe them off the face of the earth.
Perhaps I wasn't as clear in my account of the conflict (partially because I was writing as Stabo, who was not particularly knowledgable or interested in military affairs), but the final war was apocalyptic. Theudemir practices scortched earth against his foes, and Northern Gaul is severely depopulated as a result. The two Meroving brothers who are invovled in the conflict fight valiantly, but ... there is very little stopping a man (who possess the combined force of Italy, Spain and Southern Gaul) who is hell bent on your utter destruction. Paris is eventually sacked and destroyed, for instance, and thats not even getting into what happened to the countryside.
I was hoping that some of the emotions of this conflict came through in my description of the folklore and mythology that evolved around it, and I've mentioned the after effects at other times; including in my last post, which touched on the Plague's impact on the already reeling Gaul.
In all honesty, I may have to look back at my description of the war and tweak it a bit more; for instance, I may have to extend the length of the conflict, somewhat. Hmmmm.
So, hopefully, that answers your question and points out how I eventually see the Fall of the Merovings taking place and my reasons behind it.
